Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

dump alert.

You are NOT starting out too well in your newbie status if you are spouting out that kind of nonsense.

Pretty soon, you will argue that bitcoin is crashing based on consolidation or a less than 5% correction.

amirite?

[1714002371]

1714002371

[fabiorem]

This is an interesting comparison and shows you just how scarce Bitcoin actually is.
I feel like a Bitcoin Duke now, ruling over his duchy, trying to increase the size of the land I'm ruling over by trading altcoins.
If you do the actual math it's ~751 acres of habitable land, for each bitcoin which is the same as 530 football fields.

Actually, 751 acres is equivalent to 6.25 hides, which would give you the title of knight.

I thought about that myself, recently. 0.1btc would give the owner citizenship in a future bitcoin citadel. Between 0.1 and 1btc you would have the title of knight, then, increasing in multiples of ten, baron, count, duke, and king.

[JayJuanGee]

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

[Old Geek]

dump alert.

You are NOT starting out too well in your newbie status if you are spouting out that kind of nonsense.

Pretty soon, you will argue that bitcoin is crashing based on consolidation or a less than 5% correction.

amirite?

Ya. I'm easily fooled. Not seeing bitcoin crashing though. Peaks and valleys moving upward. Maybe I'm remembering the weekly pump and dumps from years gone by. Shrug.

[xhomerx10]

Managed to get my hands on a real life WO Hat.

You can put your own message on it, very clever. Any way here’s mine, this is my 13,000th post too. I think it’s definitely suitable for a milestone post.

I may promote a casino in my avatar but I can sure rock my WO real life hat



Edit - Having trouble, can somebody embed this for me?

https://i.makeagif.com/media/6-15-2019/tOmTKk.gif

the gif is to large, here you go:



edit: nice hat

 That is a whole new level of hat.  Awesome!

[JayJuanGee]

Even though the massive hodlers of bitcoin who can buy a lambo is sitting pretty

Humblebragpost: Every once in a while, I see a Lambo while I'm out and about in Dallas. I don't absolutely LOVE them, don't hate them at all, but I'm more of an odd-duck, and consider them too gauché - preferring the refined subtleties of Porsche, or the gravitas and raw power of a MacLaren.

Ferraris are right out.

Yeah, that was the other thing I wanted to do post-halvening - Get a black MacLaren GT to take back and forth from the city to the ranch... in 2022ish... if everything aligns to plan...

Dare to dream.

I’m probably going to get a Rolls Royce or a Bentley, as you say, if everything aligns to plan. Always wanted an NYC apartment too. These things will be doable if we hit $100,000+ per coin.

Obviously being financially sufficient, never working another day is the main goal but shit, I want & expect luxury with it too

Dare to dream indeed.

 


Not sure you will be able to afford a Manhattan apartment even at $100K/btc... that's expensive shit yo

In the order of the couple of millions plus ridiculous yearly taxes and shit... for something not that big nor luxurious except for the placement.

I mean unless you want to use most of your stash for acquiring / maintaining it.

Plus you won't be able to use it for more than a few months a year.... you could rent it when not using it though... maybe a good investment.

It's funny (not so much) how when you grow a few steps higher in your net worth only to discover the next steps in the ladder come at an exponentially higher cost. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_Time )

Being financially sufficient for life is my main goal too. That might be doable.

I am going to put LFC in the approaching 100BTC ballpark/arena;... (no need to agree or admit to anything), but assuming 100BTC, and assuming that you would need a few million in extra cash to comfortably maintain such a location, you seem to be correct that $100k BTC would be barely achieving such objective in a comfortable and non-worry way.

Furthermore, I think that it is a bit problematic for any BTC HODLer to count on any kind of meaningful BTC price stability in the coming years, and I believe that is part of the reason that LFC and some other regular WO participants presume that they are going to have to cash out a decent amount of their BTC stash in order to achieve some of their material objectives.. and whether they are presuming too much or NOT could be a lesson in frustration and futility to them, if they are thinking that they are going to have enough value to achieve all of their objectives in a kind of comfortable and calm way - which also implies a decent amount of cushion to prepare for both ongoing volatility in bitcoin and other unexpected aspects of living expenses (which actually some of the unexpected needs to be planned for - which causes it to be a kind of expected unexpected). 

[Biodom]

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K).
I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion.
They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so.
Lots of selling.

Regarding apartments, etc....what's the point (apart from endowing your descendants) of keeping btc and not spending it?
Apartments in NY or San Fran (with a view) sounds good; something small in a nice wooded area (Oregon or British Columbia) and/or tropics is also interesting.
I am for spending [a portion] at the right time. New generations have to (mostly) work their way up, not getting trust funds from their daddyo's.

[jojo69]

.. which may or may not play out.

exactly

say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18.

[El duderino_]

This is an interesting comparison and shows you just how scarce Bitcoin actually is.
I feel like a Bitcoin Duke now, ruling over his duchy, trying to increase the size of the land I'm ruling over by trading altcoins.
If you do the actual math it's ~751 acres of habitable land, for each bitcoin which is the same as 530 football fields.
https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1139065753590804480

Nice comparison, but WTF for an HAT is that ?!

[El duderino_]

^
As an Italian....? Come on... its amaretto on the side, Maybe not the best glass

Amaretto & Coke is a nice drink

Amaretto, oranje juice, grenadine on rocks = awesome

Btw i'm in the mood after what I have finished this evening

But f*** gotta go home early, cause i'm a bit busy tomorrow on a Sunday

[Biodom]

.. which may or may not play out.

exactly

say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18.

That's why selling at the right time is so hard (last time it could have easily been either 15K or 30K).

[adamvp]

Do you think shorts/long ratio (or absolute amounts of shorts/longs) has any impact on bitcoin price?

[JayJuanGee]

dump alert.

You are NOT starting out too well in your newbie status if you are spouting out that kind of nonsense.

Pretty soon, you will argue that bitcoin is crashing based on consolidation or a less than 5% correction.

amirite?

Ya. I'm easily fooled. Not seeing bitcoin crashing though. Peaks and valleys moving upward. Maybe I'm remembering the weekly pump and dumps from years gone by. Shrug.

Doesn't come off as very genuine to me, but maybe I should not be so skeptical.

Hey, it is understandable that anyone who held through 2014/15 or maybe including aspects of the 2018 holding period (though it seems shorter to me), is going to feel some shell shock - and even doubt about bitcoin's price inclination - and a fear of being dumped upon at any minute.

There is no doubt that dumps can come at any time, but currently, seems like we are going to need more than $100 or even $200 to cause us to even consider that a dump is actually happening.  Furthermore, even getting a 15% or more correction would not be out of the usual (even though it is feeling as if we are inclined to test $10k, currently).. dumps can come at any time.. but we need a bit more than a few walls and a bit of dumping here and there to get a lot of us to raise or antennae... currently the ongoing and seeming persistent momentum seems up (until it is not, concededly).

[HI-TEC99]

.. which may or may not play out.

exactly

say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18.

IMO it was only the gox coins getting dumped that stopped the price going higher. Nobody could predict that they would get panic dumped.

[bitserve]

.. which may or may not play out.

exactly

say I had managed to time the top and got out at 17.5 last time, which would have been a pretty good trick to hit that 5 day window, sure as shit it would have run to 45 and this dip would have bottomed at 18.

That's why selling at the right time is so hard (last time it could have easily been either 15K or 30K).

OR... it could have never dropped below $10K (which is where I failed in my expectation) and start rising from there.

Even if you sell some at the top, it is highly likely you rebuy at the next dip (which is still close to the top).

[vroom]

[cryptjh]

Nice comparison, but WTF for an HAT is that ?!

I was in a hurry so I just picked a hat from my local football team, but I'm in the market for a better hat!
I think I'm going to ask xhomerx10 if he has one I can use.

[bitserve]

Do you think shorts/long ratio (or absolute amounts of shorts/longs) has any impact on bitcoin price?

Yes they do. But you can't really act on that data alone. I mean, when there is a lot of shorts and some strong enough buying pressure happens the liquidations throw the price way higher. But you don't know if/when the buying pressure is gonna happen... especially not when you are seeing just the contrary (lots of shorters).

The only time is when it comes useful to know the shorts/longs ratio is when the price is pumping and there is still a lot of shorters.... then you know the rekt is coming.

[JayJuanGee]

It's not easy taking a BIG ASS cut in your networth,

Truth you speak, young padowan - but with practice, easier it gets.

For once, I don't want to "...become an old man, filled with regret, waiting to die alone.”
We don't have to be like Jessie L., who probably has a record of gaining and losing large fortunes.
One time he even busted a trust fund, somehow.

I think that WO crowd would be a seller from 20-30k to whatever.
Those (plus OG) bitcoins would allow newcomers to gain exposure.
Just don't sell more than 70% total, EVER.

I doubt that very many OG wall observers will be selling many coins in the $20k to $30k range, except perhaps to skim a few off for insurance.

Selling up to 70% seems a bit much, but I do believe some WO OGs are willing to sell that high of a percentage for a variety of individualized reasons which may or may not be well thought out, except thinking or hoping to buy back lower.. which may or may not play out.

Ahem, NOT for 20K to 30k, but rather from [20-30K] to Whatever (50,60,100, 150, 333, 400K).
I am also very confident that if we "pop" to, say, 25K, then start correcting downwards, many WOers would sell at least a portion.
They would not want to bear a possibility of a second trip downwards. It would be hard to resist.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when we went to 1300, then corrected to 870 or so.
Lots of selling.

It may not matter too much, but I think that we have differing ways of spinning this whole matter in order to arrive at our conclusion.

Personally, I recall that there was a whole hell of a lot of hype about how many folks would be selling in the $900 to $1,500 price arena, but in the end, we largely went through that price arena like a hot knife going though butter, in spite of the mucho hype about the selling that would take place.   Sure, in January 2017 we passed above $1k and in March 2017, we revisited sub $1k like you said, but in my thinking there continued to be way more hype about down than was able to be such sustained...l which is likely going to be similar this time around too... which is a lot of dumbies and weak hands are going to be shook out of their coins in that price arena... but the vast majority of the more experienced HODLers are not likely to sell many, if any, coins around that area.. and won't be shook from their coins, inspite of the then anticipated hype... and I doubt that there is going to be fear about revisiting low prices - like the nonsense that Vinny lingham was spouting out in March 2017... which did not play out, even though some gullible folks listened to him and sold their coins.

[RejectedBanana]

Good to have you back mfort

Missed you on the thread...... !!!!!

Thanks, Mic. Funny thing happened. I semi-retired and instead of more time on my hands, I'm spread thinner than ever. Not a bad problem to have when you're enjoying what you're doing.