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161  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: NiceHash EQM Zcash NVIDIA optimized miner [Maxwell/Pascal] + CPU mining v1.0.2b on: November 30, 2016, 12:59:14 PM
Hey, lets brag a bit Smiley Just for fun - maybe setting new benchmark?

heavy overclocked GTX 1070 MSI Gaming X - 2202 / 4800 Mhz = 255 sol/s max
Powerlimit @72
This one is really nice piece of silicon - 24/7 stable, other 4x 1070 are capped around 235/sol/s

windows 10 (1607) + latest 375.95 driver + MSI Afterburner


and even more fun 10/20cores i7-6950X @ 4200Mhz + quad channel 3200Mhz RAM
= 70sol/s or 520.000H/s cryptonight

i7 6900K@4,2, ddr@2800, win 10 : around 50h/s (a little bit more if no other programs running), 600h-630/s @cryptonight  if no others programs running, else 580 with gpu mining.

return to nvidia zcah : GTX1080 : around 185-190 @100W with mem +1000, tdp @50% (msi gaming x)
162  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Pascal Coin: P2P cryptocurrency without need of historical operations on: November 30, 2016, 09:06:51 AM
Impressed by this project on many points. The only major drawback is the need to "buy" or "mine" an account to be able to use pascalcoin : this looks like opening a bank account paying some fees, which is a sort of regression in comparison to crypto coins.

One should find a way to create an account within the wallet without mining.

This is my proposition ( I don't know if this is easy to implement) : one can create an account inside the wallet with a small negative amount to prevent users to spam acccounts.
163  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: NiceHash EQM Zcash NVIDIA optimized miner [Maxwell/Pascal] + CPU mining v1.0.2b on: November 25, 2016, 08:48:00 AM
So far the best miner available. I am getting about 220 mh/s per each GTX 1070 (mining with 7GPU) + the processor. Unfortunately the profits calculated by the nicehash are about 15-25% lower than those on whatto mine. Maybe it has something to do with the conversion of Zcash to BTC automatically - i couldn't find the conversion rate anywhere, but I am not sure ATM.
Profit on calculators are frequently a little bit overestimated...
Nicehash profits are linked to the demand/offer on their hashrate market I believe: which doesn't react as quick as the zcash rate on poloniex and is a little bit below (who will buy hashrate with higher price for estimated mining coins lower than direct buy in markets ?): with the recent increase in price, mining in zcash pool is more profitable for the moment, supposing there is no dump before you moved the coins to poloniex and sell your coins.


164  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: EWGA supernova 1300w G2 mining experience... on: November 25, 2016, 08:15:27 AM
At all...

I would like to know if there is some1 who is using the EWGA supernova 1300w G2 PSU for mining. Any experience? what watt at wall you have for what time?

atm using it with 1150w at wall and im kinda woried that i will roast it this way. What is the optimum maximum aceptal watt consuption for this PSU for long term 24/7 mining?

Thanks for any kind of advice/experience.....
This is a Tier 1 psu : using 1150W with it is OK for mining (at wall) : is this wall consumption or software based ?


http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-2547993/psu-tier-list.html
https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/406160-psu-ranking-and-tiers/

It is at wall: 1150w (watmeter) - 4,88A

hawe there 3x R9 390 and 1x r9 290.... was thinking to change 1x r9 390 for 1x r9 290 but idk what would be the difference in watt consuption


Im just woried bcs it has 92% efficiency (at 50% load) if im not wrong its like 1196W so atm i beliewe its runing on 100%... Are you sure it will handle it? (long term)


No this is the reverse : your psu should provide 1300W on the component side. I will then consume around 1445 on the wall.

See http://www.jonnyguru.com/modules.php?name=NDReviews&op=Story3&reid=349 (on AC 110V).
If your AC voltage is 220 you will have better efficiency.

165  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: EWGA supernova 1300w G2 mining experience... on: November 25, 2016, 06:49:36 AM
At all...

I would like to know if there is some1 who is using the EWGA supernova 1300w G2 PSU for mining. Any experience? what watt at wall you have for what time?

atm using it with 1150w at wall and im kinda woried that i will roast it this way. What is the optimum maximum aceptal watt consuption for this PSU for long term 24/7 mining?

Thanks for any kind of advice/experience.....
This is a Tier 1 psu : using 1150W with it is OK for mining (at wall) : is this wall consumption or software based ?


http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/forum/id-2547993/psu-tier-list.html
https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/406160-psu-ranking-and-tiers/
166  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Claymore's ZCash AMD GPU Miner v7.0 on: November 23, 2016, 04:45:21 PM
i feel 280x the cards Claymore loves the most - will have 200 sols per card i nthe update Smiley)

I like 390-390X the most - I'm going to reach 300H/s on stock clocks.
RX480 will show about 190-200 I think.
280X - about 200 or a bit more.
and what about nano/fury ? They have 512 gGB of bandwith...
167  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Nexus - Pure SHA3 + CPU/GPU + nPoS + 15 Active Innovations + More to Come on: November 20, 2016, 09:37:32 PM
1080 was the worst purchase
Only ~93Mh, like a more cheaper 1070
I have a little bit above 110mh/s with the skminer 0.1 on GTX 1080 (not the mumus one, the original one):
http://www.cestballot.fr/downn/nexus/Niro_miner/GPU-solo-Miner/
168  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: CCminer(SP-MOD) Modded NVIDIA Maxwell / Pascal kernels. on: November 18, 2016, 10:21:05 AM
Hello,
spmod with GTX 1080: the limiting factor is probably memory latency.
Oveclocking the core and memory (real gpu freq around 2088, mem around 11500) : around 110-120 sol/s.
Underclocking memory: less than 90s/s
Underclocking gpu @1500  and overclok mem @ 11500 : around 110S/S (almost the same than both overclocked).

This is a very different story than GTX 1070.

With core +100, powerlimit at the minimum (around 40% I think) (which leads to real core freq arount 1500mhz , mem@11500) : around 110 sol/s, power usage (hwinfo) decreased to 88W.

To be compared to the fury x @1100/500 which gives 220 s/s @180W : we have similar hashrate/power ratio. 
169  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Claymore's ZCash AMD GPU Miner v5.0 on: November 14, 2016, 09:43:22 AM
What do you rejoice? It is advantageous when your speed is higher than the other. And when the rate rises in all, you are in relation to other, standing pat are.

It just kills the coin.

Exactly - the only one actually making money is Claymore xD

If you check history, my miner is not x3 faster than others, I just see how fast others miners and release a bit faster version. This time I have to release faster version due to new miner. If people stop this speed racing I'll stop it too, but you know it won't work Smiley
Also do note my miner is not for NVidia, not for CPU and not for Linux, so if I release miner with x2 speed, network difficult is not going to raise x2 too.
Faster public miners don't kill coins! Private miners which could concentrate hash power in a few big farms may be nocive for the coins if they are a lot faster than public ones.
Faster public miners on the contrary, help with a more diversified distribution, lowering the impact of private miners.

The price is declining because zcash was overpriced due to the low initial mining rewards which leads to a very low initial supply.
The total emission will be 21 millions of coins like bitcoin or like monero in 2040: Expecting the price could be maintened around 1 btc is unreasonnable for short/medium term. I would expect price going in the 0.005-0.05 range.



170  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: R9 Nano Modded Rom on: November 09, 2016, 09:23:00 AM
Rom update for Zcash

Zcash Nano Rom  Wink

Link: Here

Reduced core voltage, raised memory voltage (which is needed)

Have fun!
Hello,
I suppose these roms doesn't work for a fury-x?
Maybe I will try to mod a bios by myself ...
171  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Claymore's ZCash AMD GPU Miner v2.0 on: November 07, 2016, 06:08:16 AM
I had to remove v1.0 and v1.1 from google drive and mega, because I was pointed that I used a small part of mrb's work.
It will take up to 24 hours to revise my code and create own implementation, then I will upload updated version.


Details are:

Code:
mrb> Claymore, you took and reused my blake.c code and didn't include the copyright notice as required by silentarmy's MIT license:
mrb> https://forum.z.cash/t/silentarmy-v3-now-a-full-miner-multi-gpu-stratum/3580/640
mrb> I request that you cease infringing by:
mrb> (1) either including the full "License" section of silentarmy's README.md along with your distribution of your zcash miner,
mrb> (2) or stop using my blake.c code.
mrb>
mrb> Of course this is only ~100 lines of code, and we are all lazy programmers and I understand why you did it :) but you ought to do the right thing.
mrb> Thanks,
mrb> -Marc Bevand
[/quote]

Oh, you are correct, I really missed this point. I was in a big hurry to release first version asap, so I concentrated on main Wagner's algo,
blake is not interesting for me at this point since it takes only 10% of total GPU time and it's trivial in fact, blake algo is not that I can call something new.
But to make some start point asap I included your blake.c into my sources and then forgot about it and did not create my implementation. That's what happens if you are in a hurry.
It is very unpleasant situation for me, I will do the following:

1. I remove v1.0 and v1.1 versions of my miner. In fact, I already removed current packages from google drive and MEGA, I will upload updated versions soon.
In next version I will remove your blake.c from my sources.
2. I apologize, it's only my fault that I used this part of your code. I was not going to do it in public version.
3. I want to send you some compensation from my ZEC dev fee if you don't mind, just send me your ZEC address.
4. I'm not going to hide my fault in any way, I will post this message in my miner thread in first post.

Thank you for doing the right thing. I fetched your new tarball Claymore's ZCash AMD GPU Miner v1.1 Beta - LINUX - Catalyst 15.12.tar.gz and can confirm you included the MIT license as mandated in your "Readme!!!.txt" file, as quoted below.

You are in no way obligated to "pay" me. But if you feel this can help re-establish some of your image and reputation, feel free to publicly send to my donation address t1cVviFvgJinQ4w3C2m2CfRxgP5DnHYaoFC

You are now fully compliant with the MIT license. I hope my SILENTARMY code was useful to you  Wink


Code:
==========
This miner uses some code of SILENTARMY OpenCL GPU Zcash Equihash solver:

# License

The MIT License (MIT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Marc Bevand

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"),
to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense,
and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY,
WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.

-Marc Bevand

I'm happy that we close this issue! I also donated 5 ZEC to your address t1cVviFvgJinQ4w3C2m2CfRxgP5DnHYaoFC

SUPER GREEDY selfish dev that stole & got caught with pants down but at least he admits it so i take my hat off to you, but you were using mrb's code & you used it for commercial gains & you made a MINIMUM of 30-50 BTC from the 2.5% FEES !

You just sent 5 ZEC to mrb ?

SUPER SHAMEFUL !

So quick to judge people ...
Why not just believe Claymore's version of the facts ?
Claymore has made its own version of the code now and this is faster, as he promised.
I give him the benefice of the doubt and believe this was not intentional.
172  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Pascal Coin: P2P cryptocurrency without need of historical operations on: November 06, 2016, 04:51:40 PM
Hello,
I have the following problem with the opencl miner (cuda one works fine): when the miner start, trying to compile the opencl kernel, it fails with the following message:


C:\Miners\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1>PascalCoinOpenCL_ProxyMiner.exe d0 p1 i23 c50
Found 2 platform(s) on your computer.
Devices on platform 0, "NVIDIA CUDA":
        Device 0: GeForce GTX 1080
Devices on platform 1, "AMD Accelerated Parallel Processing":
        Device 0: Fiji

Error -11: Failed to build program executable [ ]
Build Status: CL_BUILD_ERROR
Build Options:
Build Log:

error: 64-bit kernels not supported on a 32-bit executable
Frontend phase failed compilation.
Error: Compiling CL to IR


Does someone met similar problem ? (driver 16.10.1, windows 10)
Someone can help me on this ?

are you using x86 windows ?
Win10 64  home
173  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Pascal Coin: P2P cryptocurrency without need of historical operations on: November 06, 2016, 09:04:22 AM
Hello,
I have the following problem with the opencl miner (cuda one works fine): when the miner start, trying to compile the opencl kernel, it fails with the following message:


C:\Miners\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1>PascalCoinOpenCL_ProxyMiner.exe d0 p1 i23 c50
Found 2 platform(s) on your computer.
Devices on platform 0, "NVIDIA CUDA":
        Device 0: GeForce GTX 1080
Devices on platform 1, "AMD Accelerated Parallel Processing":
        Device 0: Fiji

Error -11: Failed to build program executable [ ]
Build Status: CL_BUILD_ERROR
Build Options:
Build Log:

error: 64-bit kernels not supported on a 32-bit executable
Frontend phase failed compilation.
Error: Compiling CL to IR


Does someone met similar problem ? (driver 16.10.1, windows 10)
Someone can help me on this ?
174  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Pascal Coin: P2P cryptocurrency without need of historical operations on: November 05, 2016, 07:53:20 AM
Hello,
I have the following problem with the opencl miner (cuda one works fine): when the miner start, trying to compile the opencl kernel, it fails with the following message:


C:\Miners\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1\PascalCoin_OpenCL_ProxyMiner_v1>PascalCoinOpenCL_ProxyMiner.exe d0 p1 i23 c50
Found 2 platform(s) on your computer.
Devices on platform 0, "NVIDIA CUDA":
        Device 0: GeForce GTX 1080
Devices on platform 1, "AMD Accelerated Parallel Processing":
        Device 0: Fiji

Error -11: Failed to build program executable [ ]
Build Status: CL_BUILD_ERROR
Build Options:
Build Log:

error: 64-bit kernels not supported on a 32-bit executable
Frontend phase failed compilation.
Error: Compiling CL to IR


Does someone met similar problem ? (driver 16.10.1, windows 10)
175  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 31, 2016, 08:38:55 AM
He has been flip flopping back an forth talking his book ever since he joined this thread, he was way more obnoxious in the beginning switching sentiment very often.

I see. As I am new since a few months ago I truly believed he was 100% for Monero. I was baffled at his latest post to be honest haha.

Oh he will be all for Monero again very soon, just as soon as he finishes buying back what he sold.
He used to have a signature saying something like : I speak bullish when I short XMR and bearish when I am long. He plays with forum members...
176  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Most profit coins today on: October 29, 2016, 10:33:58 AM
Today

Nvidia 1080:
LBRY paid miner - $2.02 (400 mh)

Nvidia 1070:
LBRY paid miner - $1.61 (320 mh)

Fury Х, Nano (-7%):
dual ETC + SIA - $1.85 (31 eth + 1157 sc)

390, 390x, 290, 290x, 1070:
dual ETC + SIA - $1.59, (30 eth + 600 sc)
 
480 or 470 8gb (BIOS tweak need):
dual ETC + SIA - $1.47 (30 eth + 300 sc)

470 4gb (BIOS tweak need):
ETC - $1.31 (29 eth)

380:
ETC - $0.94 (20 eth)



Second hand cards:

295x2:
dual ETH+SIA: $3.36 (64 eth + 1200 sc)

7990:
ETH 37 mh: $1.67

7950, 7970, 280x:
ETH 18.5 mh: $0.83

6930, 750ti:
XMR 250 h/s: $0.35


CPU:

INTEL XEON E5-2640 V3
XMR 795 h/s: $1.13
Hello,
What is your miner for xmr for XEON E5 please ? and OS/ setting ?
Thanks.
177  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 29, 2016, 06:38:33 AM
@nioc

Why would I think that bagholders are devs ? Maybe because of this ?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1233817.0

And buying(accumulating) coins to dump them at a loss makes no sense. Also Lending page didn't move at that dump.
The two people mentionned in the first post are not really dev (but are /were proeminent members of various monero team).

The current dumping is due to the zcash hype (people buying zcash now for holding will suffer: the current price is due to very low current supply : mining reward is very low the first weeks to prevent instant mining, but will increase sharply after. Nevertheless, due to the rich investors behind zcash, this anonymous will keep high trading volume and keep some relatively high price).
178  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: CCminer(SP-MOD) Modded NVIDIA Maxwell / Pascal kernels. on: October 13, 2016, 07:32:18 PM
SP, when you wanna release lbry 4th version for donators?

Stupid noob alevlaslo already selling your miner for 0.09 BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610345.msg16502709#msg16502709

As long as ppl are selling cheaper copies I will delay release #4


So you're punishing your real customers for someone that's ripping you off? WTF dude?

@ thevictimofuktyranny
  newegg.com
  usually has it listed if it has them or go to the manufacturers site and look at the different models.

No data, on MSI's Aero exhaust blowers Sad

EVGA is shipping it's 1070 FTW models with dual ball bearings fans (last 4 times as long)!

8 phases to the GPU (1070 reference ships with 4 phases)

EVGA 1070 FTW can draw a total of 215watts - for safe overclocking. Not to mention a free game code in the UK for "Gears of War 4".

Yes, I'm very sad about the 1070's I bought  Sad

Do not watch this review, unless you want to cry like a baby  Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZpwpEbL3W8



MSI reds are pieces of shit. I've had over 60% of the ones I bought fail due to faulty VRM circuitry. I literally sent the last five I bought back over the last two months. There is a VRM module that isn't under neath the heatsink that always fails. They get extremely hot and rupture. I've had a few of them actually pop off of the card, one landed on particle board after exploding and started scorching it because it was too hot. It very much could've started a fire if it landed on something with a low burn point.

That said almost all of the 1070s right now come with copies of Gears of War (which people with fake credit cards promptly try to rip you off for on eBay).

Weirdly enough, EVGA/Zotac/MSI are the only manufacturers that sell cards with double PCIE power plugs. Zotac is a PoS due to the armor completely wrapping the exhaust on the card and MSI sells cards with shitty VRM circuitry even though they aren't cheap.

Even Asus models, although they have great coolers (pretty sure they're the best minus triple slot coolers), do not have a double power plug model. That is putting aside blowers, which are the best out of the bunch, but the loudest if you're trying to pack a bunch of cards in a small area. Blower fans DO NOT fail as well, however they're hard to blow out. They use some heavy duty bearings on those. I've never had one go bad.
No problem with my MSI GTX1080 gaming : the problem on msi 1070 may be linked to the vram used  (micron) : https://www.reddit.com/r/nvidia/comments/4wh8jc/msi_officially_announces_gtx_1070_quality/
179  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: October 12, 2016, 04:01:40 PM

This is well known by people who were around in this period: Bitmonero was a fork of bytecoin.
Bytecoin use the novative cryptonote tech but was probably instamined with the trick of the volontary slow hash mining included in the code.

When forked in Bitmonero,  the dev team which replaced quickly the initial dev of bitmonero  realize the problem and fix it but it took some time and some talented dev such as David Andersen took advantage of the situation with a private miner.

The developers of monero didn't benefits from this. The discussion on this topic between David and Vitalik (from ETH) in the link you provide (comment section) is very informative:



Vitalik Buterin :
 
> Yes - I think we all agree with that general statement, although there will always be situations where specific miners will have advantages.

IMO, correct mining algorithm ethics require you to disclose all information that you know about how to optimize a given algo implementation. But a looser standard is that you should not intentionally cripple an implementation that you release to the public.

From the evidence provided in the article, it seems as though Monero failed both tests, so it perhaps is indeed a premine scam. However, that is a grave accusation, and one that deserves giving the Monero devs a fair chance to respond.

David Andersen:
 
This would be a very reasonable thing to assert if I had anything to do with Monero.  I don't.  In fact, to the best of my knowledge, none of the people who profited from early optimized Monero mining had anything to do with crippling the code in the first place.

Think of it this way:  You step in and inherit a legacy codebase for a promising and interesting new cryptocurrency.  You're immediately beset with demands -- fix bugs, release binaries, answer help questions, etc.  In retrospect, it turns out that the code you took over had been de-optimized by its original creators.  Is that your fault?  Of course not.  What's the standard that we should hold the Monero developers to?  To fix any bugs or deliberate weaknesses as fast as they can after they become aware of it.  To get up to speed and review and understand the codebase they inherited as quickly as a reasonable developer can do.

You're picking your words very carefully, so I suspect you know exactly what game you're playing trying to hint that Monero is a scam while being able to defensively say "well, I only said perhaps", but it's very transparent.  And, personally, I find it mildly offensive that you're twisting what I wrote in the article and ignoring some of the substantive points.

Vitalik Buterin :

What am I twisting?

I have no pre-existing prejudices against Monero, I actually think the cryptonote family has some very cool technology. Of course I am picking my words carefully, it's exactly the correct thing for me to do. Making accusations of malfeasance is not something that I do lightly as part of some kind of competitive PR strategy; I do not "play games". I am merely trying to understand the truth. I also have nothing against you at all; I am completely and utterly perplexed as to the source of the sudden hostility.

So, there exists code that has been deliberately crippled. This is a fact. The only reason I can conceive of for writing crippled mining code is to profit off of your own uncrippled version. Hence, there has been malfeasance on the part of someone, malfeasance that I give the label of "premine scam" because it constitutes (1) dishonest behavior that (2) enables you to mine in large quantities well before anyone else can. If the current Monero developers were not involved in that, then awesome, they are completely cool and legit folks in my view.

David Andersen :

Apologies if I misread what you wrote, but I tried to be quite clear in my article that the developers of Bytecoin, who introduced the slowdown, are very unlikely to have relationships, financial or otherwise, with the current set of developers who've been responsible for bringing Monero to popularity.

I'm pretty sure that the Bytecoin version of this was pure evil, and that it was used not just to get an advantage in mining, but to fake the entire blockchain.  I wouldn't touch that one with a 10 foot bitcoin.  But, while I don't own any more Monero than is in transit from my hardware to the exchange, I don't think that same thing applies to Monero (because, first of all, there was no premine, and second, I know quite accurately who made the profit from the crappy miner, and I know that none of us were Bytecoin developers.)

It's possible that the initial fork-er of Monero, TFT, was complicit.  But he's also out of the picture, and while he might have had a week of fun mining, he wouldn't have gotten much more than that.
180  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: XMR (Monero) exit scam? on: October 06, 2016, 02:36:56 PM
@dinofelis. So what you are saying is that it is all a bubble? Even bitcoin? If they really are then now is not a good time to use them as a store of value.

For sure now most of crypto is bubble-sustained (what I call "greater fool theory").  But that doesn't mean that it will soon come crashing down.  There are 3 possible scenarios:

1) the bubble-sustained price will slowly be replaced by "true usage".   In that case, the speculators of today are in fact visionaries, who were earlier than others in seeing the true fundamental value of crypto.  Adoption is then true adoption for usage, and the profile of the average crypto user changes from "gambler" to "user".  That is, the demand for crypto will be less and less "to invest", and "to make profit", but more and more "to use it for real as money".  Unfortunately, that is not the current tendency.

2) the bubble-sustained price will rise, and rise and rise, as long as there are more and more greater fools (also called "adoption", but speculative adoption).  There will be a "last generation of greater fools" which will be the largest population interested in crypto for "profit" and which will be tremendously disappointed, because of course no more rise.  The result of this can be twofold:

2a) when it starts to become clear that there's no more rise in the future, the thing will come crashing down, like a genuine speculative bubble.  Bong.

2b) the "belief" in the system will have such long time constant, that the realisation of "damn, no more rise" will be spread over a very long period.  We will then see a very long, slow erosion of the price, until USAGE demand will be in agreement with the price, which will be a very large factor lower.

There can be a combination of 2b) and 1).  It may be that during the erosion of the speculative hope for higher prices, usage starts to increase, and the demand for usage starts to replace the disappointment of the last row of "investors".

I have no idea how high that the current bubble can still inflate.  Maybe there are still factors of 10 to be taken before one hits the ceiling.  But one thing is clear to me: the current price is MAINLY driven by the "hope for rise" and NOT by "usage", and that is something that mathematically comes to an end one day or another.  Tomorrow or 20 years from now, I don't know. The only question is HOW it will come to an end: crashing down ; slow, long erosion ; or slow replacement with genuine usage.

The question to answer honestly is this one: "suppose that most bitcoin holders today would KNOW that bitcoin will remain at $600 for the next 20 years, with modest ups and downs, would their demand and their holdings of bitcoin be the same on average as today ?"

If the answer to the question is "yes", then the current price is solid.  If the answer is "no" (which I think it is), then we are in the scenario I just described.


Insightfull, clear and informative post, as  your other post about the difference with gold: a must read. Thanks.

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