The US & China Trade War is Nothing, Worry About Business and Bank Failures in 2019



An economics professor at Long Island University has warned that the greatest headwinds the global economy will face in 2019 will be massive business failures and not the US-China trade war.

According to Panos Mourdoukoutas, Professor at the Department of Economics chair at Long Island University’s LIU Post campus, the trade war between China and the United States was a major issue in 2018 due to the fact that it raised fears of heightened nationalism and protectionist policies across the globe. However, this will change in 2019 with global corporations and financial markets expected to pressurize the two countries into inking a deal.


‘Big Progress being made’ – Donald Trump on the US-China Trade War
As earlier reported by CCN, a trade agreement is expected by March 1, 2019. After holding a telephone conversation with his Chinese counterpart, US President Donald Trump signaled over the weekend that there is a reason to be hopeful for a deal to be reached.

    Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 29, 2018

In Mourdoukoutas’ view, the massive business failures in 2019 will be a result of easy money drying up following the increase of interest rates by central banks worldwide.

    The explanation is simple and straightforward. Easy money acted as a tsunami, lifting up both the demand and the supply side of the global economy to higher levels. On the demand side, it encouraged consumers to resume taking on more debt… On the supply side, it encouraged corporations and entrepreneurs to pursue low-profit businesses opportunities.

Noting that bank failures are likely to be experienced in emerging markets, Mourdoukoutas pointed out that the household debt to GDP ratio of China rose from 18% ten years ago to over 50% at present time (China’s corporate debt is largely unknown but may be a bigger problem than the household debt).



China’s Household Debt to GDP Ration (Courtesy of KOYFIN)


Less Debt, Less Consumption
With the raising of interest rates by central banks and the FED, consumers are expected to reduce their uptake of debt.  This will result in less spending. Reduced spending by consumers will see low-profit businesses shutting down and the era of a slower growth in the world economy will arrive. Mourdoukoutas wrote that this will be like 2008/2009 all over again when the same scenario played out in the United States:

    That’s what happened in 2008-9, shortly after the Federal Reserve raise interest rates and the US economy slid into a recession. US Business failures soared to 6,000 per quarter, while bank failures reached 157.

Other factors that are likely to weigh in on global economic prospects include slower growth in China and Japan, the world’s second and third biggest economies respectively. The pessimism occasioned by the ‘rise of anti-globalization ideologies’ all over the world, will be another concern.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/the-us-china-trade-war-is-nothing-worry-about-business-and-bank-failures-in-2019/

Thanks Satoshi Nakamoto! BitMEX Advertises on Front Page of The Times 10 Years Later



BitMEX has taken an advertisement out on the front page of January 3rd, 2019 edition of The Times thanking Satoshi Nakamoto for Bitcoin, ten years to the day after Satoshi Nakamoto quoted the front page of the same publication in Bitcoin’s first block (#0). Tweeting from their BitMEX Research account, they said:

    Happy 10th Birthday Bitcoin! pic.twitter.com/DpOPjojsOd

    — BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 2, 2019


The Bitcoin Genesis Block
The global financial crisis of the early 21st century is famously a key motivating factor in the development of Bitcoin by Satoshi Nakamoto. Famously, when the Bitcoin genesis block was mined on January 3rd 2009, a bit of text was embedded into its coinbase:

    The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for bank

Today at 18:15 UTC time or 1:15PM EST will mark the exact 10th birthday of the Bitcoin blockchain. The address which received the first mining reward, and therefore the first 50 bitcoins, has received an additional 16+ BTC over time. In Bitcoin and most Satoshi-codebase cryptocurrencies, the recipient or founder cannot spend the first mining reward due to the way the code was originally written. Thus even if Satoshi were to emerge and want to spend these coins, he would not be able to do so.

At time of writing, it had received a microtransaction with “1HappyTenthBirthdayBitcoinxvYeM9e” as a change address. The actual sender is probably the owner of 3H7itJUKrZ4bMagoArQRgWVjKGRdCqz6hp, which received the majority of the change outputs from the transaction (around $400 at time of writing).



“In this sense, it’s more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes.” –Satoshi Nakamoto


Satoshi Nakamoto’s Deflationary Bitcoin As An Answer to Fiat Money
“It’s very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint if we can explain it properly. I’m better with code than with words though,” Satoshi Nakamoto said on November 13th, 2008, discussing his Bitcoin whitepaper.

In a later e-mail, after the blockchain was up and running, Satoshi explained:

    You could say coins are issued by the majority. They are issued in a limited, predetermined amount. […]

    Indeed there is nobody to act as central bank or federal reserve to adjust the money supply as the population of users grows. That would have required a trusted party to determine the value, because I don’t know a way for software to know the real world value of things. If there was some clever way, or if we wanted to trust someone to actively manage the money supply to peg it to something, the rules could have been programmed for that.

    In this sense, it’s more typical of a precious metal. Instead of the supply changing to keep the value the same, the supply is predetermined and the value changes. As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.

Bitcoin has been both embraced and rejected by Austrian economists of various stripes, for varying reasons. Either way, it certainly fits the model of a deflationary currency and solves several of the problems of central banks and fiat currencies.

However, there is some legitimate argument that perhaps Satoshi was only using a means to prove the date the blockchain was actually founded. There is some degree of speculation on all this. Indeed, block #1 was not mined until six days later, leading many to believe that the first block was saved from a test-run of sorts.

Anyway you look at it, no one could have predicted that the Bitcoin experiment would have transformed into a $50 billion market force in 10 short years.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitmex-thanks-satoshi-nakamoto-front-page-times-10-years-after-bitcoin-genesis-block/

TheDarkOverlord, the hacking group that got popular for releasing episodes of the hit TV series Orange is the New Black, has surfaced again, this time they claim to have stolen information related to the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center back in 2001, per reports on Motherboard.

According to an update posted on Twitter on New Year’s Eve, the group claims to have stolen thousands of documents from insurance firms such as Lloyds of London, Silverstein Properties, and Hiscox Syndicates. They are now threatening to publish the contents of the files which it claims would “provide answers” to some of the conspiracy theories concerning the attack if their ransom demands aren’t met.

    We'll be providing many answers about 9.11 conspiracies through our 18.000 secret documents leak from @HiscoxComms and others #thedarkoverlord #911hacked #hacking #leak #cybercrime

    — thedarkoverlord (@tdo_h4ck3rs) December 31, 2018

A spokesperson for the Hiscox Group gave confirmation of the hack, stating that the hackers had been able to gain access to the confidential files of a law firm that advised the company and had most likely gotten litigation files that were related to the terrorist attack.

Speaking with Motherboard, the spokesperson said:

    The law firm’s systems are not connected to Hiscox’s IT infrastructure and Hiscox’s own systems were unaffected by this incident. One of the cases the law firm handled for Hiscox and other insurers related to litigation arising from the events of 9/11, and we believe that information relating to this was stolen during that breach.

According to the report, the group had posted letters and email correspondence online, mentioning various law firms, the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transport Security Administration. They released a link to an archived file containing the documents they reportedly stole. Although it’s still encrypted, they have given notice of their intention to release the appropriate decryption keys unless ransom payment is made in Bitcoin.

TheDarkOverlord is also blackmailing individuals and companies whose details are included in the documents, demanding that they make the required payments if they would like to exclude their names from the documents. The Motherboard article quoted a demand letter sent by the hackers, where they threatened to bring down multiple companies.

    If you continue to fail us, we’ll escalate these releases by releasing the keys, each time a Layer is opened, a new wave of liability will fall upon you.

Hiscox has however noted that publishing insurance-related information isn’t going to yield much


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/hacker-group-pay-bitcoin-ransom-or-well-release-9-11-papers/

Bitcoin Bull Mike Novogratz Boosts Stake in Galaxy Digital to 79%, Causing Stock to Soar



Bitcoin bull Mike Novogratz increased his stake in Galaxy Digital Holdings — the crypto merchant bank he founded — to 79.3%, after acquiring an additional 2.7% of its outstanding shares. Novogratz previously held a 76.6% ownership stake.

The former hedge fund manager acquired 7,500,768 ordinary shares for C$7.4 million (or US$5.4 million), according to a January 2 statement.

The Goldman Sachs alum now holds 221 million shares of Galaxy Digital, making him the New York bank’s single-largest shareholder.

The news caused a massive intra-day spike in Galaxy Digital’s stock price.


Galaxy Digital stock price

Galaxy Digital Holdings is not listed on a US stock exchange because an initial public offering would require at least two years of audited financial statements.

However, the firm has been trading on Canada’s TSX Venture Exchange since August 2018. The Toronto-based TSX-V lists companies that are too small to be traded on the main Toronto Stock Exchange.


Galaxy Is Losing an Average of $15 Million a Day
As CCN reported, Galaxy Digital had a catastrophic 2018. The crypto bank lost $136 million during the first nine months of 2018 due to losing positions in ether, XRP, and bitcoin during a protracted bear market.

Despite the relentless Crypto Winter, Novogratz predicts that bitcoin prices will soar to record highs in 2019 fueled by a spike in institutional investments.

In response to skeptics who are gleefully cheering the market slump, Novogratz underscored that early setbacks are to be expected before a new technology achieves mainstream acceptance.

“Revolutions don’t happen overnight,” he quipped.

    ‘Revolutions Don’t Happen Overnight’: Why Mike Novogratz isn’t Giving up on Bitcoin https://t.co/mouYzxgN3V

    — CCN.com (@CryptoCoinsNews) December 11, 2018

To prove that he’s putting his money where his mouth is, Novogratz has expanded his shop, even as crypto prices tumbled.

In November 2018, Novogratz hired another Goldman Sachs banker to oversee Galaxy’s advisory-services arm. Novogratz, a former hedge fund manager, was himself once a partner at Goldman Sachs.

Since raising $250 million in February 2018 to finance Galaxy Digital, Novogratz has wooed a number of top Goldman Sachs executives away from the prestigious investment bank.


Bitcoin Can Replace Gold as Store of Value: VC
Mike Novogratz isn’t the only market heavyweight who’s betting big on crypto. As CCN reported, venture capitalist Lou Kerner says bitcoin is on track to replace gold as the dominant store of value.

Lerner claims that naysayers who have lost faith in the market because of its current downturn are missing the forest for the trees.

    Bitcoin on Track to Replace Gold as Dominant Store of Value: Crypto VC https://t.co/z1a8opYY44

    — CCN.com (@CryptoCoinsNews) December 31, 2018

Kerner, the founding partner of New York-based CryptoOracle, says the truly disruptive impact of bitcoin won’t be fully realized until years from now.

“We really believe that in 20 years, bitcoin will have created trillions of dollars in value similar to how the Internet has,” Kerner said. “We’re at the very beginning.”


Expert: Crypto is Where Internet Was In 1992
Lou Kerner echoed the sentiments of Argentine tech entrepreneur Wences Casares, the founder of bitcoin wallet Xapo. Casares, a serial entrepreneur who’s on the board of PayPal, says cryptocurrencies today are where the Internet was in 1992 — at its beginning stages.

Casares says it could take 7 to 20 years to realize the full impact that crypto will have to transform the world, as CCN reported. Casares was dubbed bitcoin’s “Patient Zero” for his role in boosting crypto’s profile in Silicon Valley, where Xapo is based.

In recent years, Casares has persuaded his fellow Silicon Valley millionaires and billionaires to buy bitcoin by convincing them that crypto is the currency of the future. This is a sentiment echoed by Twitter billionaire Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Square.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-bull-mike-novogratz-boosts-stake-in-galaxy-digital-to-79-causing-stock-to-soar/

Years of over-engineering and ethical decay has made Bitcoin a garbage network, says a Fortune 500 software developer.

Bryce Weiner, known for being part of controversial altcoin projects and their subsequent failures, took a potshot at the world’s leading digital currency protocol without elaborating on it. He later admitted that he was acting humorous while responding to a personal remark made on him earlier. Saying then that Bitcoin is indeed not a garbage network, but it still has a lot of other issues.

    “It has neither earned nor deserves the right to be a global reserve currency,” Weiner claimed. “The only thing democratic about Bitcoin is that we can fork the source code and do it over again.”

The comments rattled many pro-Bitcoiners with some of them stating that Weiner was merely acting like an internet troll who shows no substantial evidence or reasoning behind his claims. A response went ahead and called Wiener a crypto-scammer whose opinion did not mean anything.

    You are literally one of the top 5 scammers in crypto. Your opinion means literally nothing to anyone in this space. All who listen to you deserve what's coming to them.

    — Vortex (@theonevortex) December 30, 2018

Weiner responded by sourcing contents from mainstream media, particularly the one explaining how Wall Street was shelving its plans to introduce bitcoin products. It was though not in line with Weiner’s accusations that were more focused on Bitcoin’s potential as an alternative global reserve.

    Checkmate.https://t.co/yHZVx9ZwOw

    — Bryce Weiner (@BryceWeiner) December 30, 2018


Trolling?
Weiner, who currently serves as a software architecture to Tao, a blockchain-based solution for the music industry, has been part of a total of six altcoin projects that are now defunct. His last project, dubbed as GamerHolicCoin, drew hostile reactions from the BitcoinCoinTalk community, especially after the project’s central node stopped accepting connections, causing the coin to fork into 5-6 different versions. In a controversial decision, the GameHolicCoin team switched from the main chain to the new chain with the most extended block output.

Before that, Weiner was an integral part of Razorcoin, Dirac, NautilusCoin, PetroDollar, and Amcoin. All of these projects failed to build a survivable product and died. That, however, didn’t deter the entrepreneur from offering his expertise in the developments of other projects. He continues to be an avid Twitterati and Redditor. He has 68 software repositories to his Github page with over 328 contributions. Meanwhile, he keeps publishing his anti-Bitcoin opinions every once a while.

In one of his more detailed criticism at Reddit, Weiner recommended an Ethereum-style hard fork for Bitcoin while saying that the Core team lacked a concrete voting mechanism.


Source: Reddit

Bitcoin is trading at $3,791, down 2.39% at press time on a 24-hour-adjusted timeframe.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-is-a-garbage-network-fortune-500-software-developer/

The bitcoin price on Wednesday showed minor upside movements as it maintained the gains made during yesterday’s session.


Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
The BTC/USD exchange rate posted as much as 1.5 percent in gains during the first half of the trading session. The pair notably eyed a rally towards $4,000 but corrected ahead of establishing the said upside target, eventually falling to $3,843, its value at the time of writing.


BITCOIN 1D CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

The price action also confirmed a firm price action similar to what market had encountered during the November 24-December 3 trading session. The higher low of November 27 at $3,567 is now serving as support to the interim consolidation range, while $4,000 continues to be a psychological resistance. There are notably enough opportunities for day traders provide by a decent gap between the two parameters. However, in the long-term, the bitcoin market is still inside a giant descending channel, now nearing the channel line for a potential breakdown/pullback scenario.

The bitcoin price is also noticing a strong resistance sentiment near its 50-period moving average depicted in sky blue. During the consolidation period above $6,000, the same moving average had capped every upside attempt. As of now, the market has seen the 50-period rejecting one rally attempt, and bitcoin is again closing in towards it to pursue a potential interim breakout action towards the main trendline above.

The RSI on daily charts continues to face resistance inside 55-58 area, indicating the presence of strong bearish sentiment near these levels. The momentum indicator hasn’t entered its overbought zone since July 24, 2018.

The early US session reports are indicating a stronger dollar for the rest of the day on weak Chinese manufacturing data. The greenback is posing itself as a safe haven, and a high yield would likely boost its demand in the market. Bitcoin has a little opportunity in the macroeconomic circle as long as fiats like the dollar and yen are fulfilling the demand.

Intraday Targets

BITCOIN 1H CHART | SOURCE: COINBASE, TRADINGVIEW.COM

For the rest of the US trading session, we are hoping that bitcoin will continue to consolidate between the trading range defined by $3,885 as resistance and $3,567 as support. The decent gap between the said parameters initially allows us to apply our intrarange strategy, i.e., entering a long towards resistance on a bounce from support and a short towards support on a pullback from resistance. A risk management strategy, meanwhile, should have us maintain a stop loss order just 1-pip in the opposite direction of our order.

In case the bitcoin price breaks the resistance level, we will switch to our breakout strategy and enter a long position towards $4,000. A stop loss order maintained just 1-pip below the entry point will minimize our losses should the upside bias get rejected once again. Similarly, a break below support would have us open a short position towards $3,437, our downside target, while maintaining a stop loss order just 1-pip above the entry point.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-closing-in-on-resistance-at-4000-will-the-rally-hold/

After ten years in existence, Bitcoin has officially made the radar of multi-millionaire motivational speaker Tony Robbins. “Team Tony,” presumably employees of Robbins, recently posted an article entitled “What You Need to Know About Bitcoin” on TonyRobbins.com which Robbins promptly tweeted about:

    What the heck is bitcoin, and how does it work? Find out here. https://t.co/KkenntACZd

    — Tony Robbins (@TonyRobbins) December 30, 2018

Robbins, most famous for firewalking during his motivational speaking engagements and selling his “Personal Power” self-help series to professionals looking to maximize their potential, has in later years taken to giving advice about finances and wealth management.

The article reads, in part:

    Bitcoin is decentralized. No single bank, government, company or individual owns the network or has control over it. This means that your accounts can never be frozen, a government cannot devalue the currency, it can be used in every country, and, more ominously, because of the anonymous nature of bitcoin, the technically savvy can avoid taxation and use bitcoin as payment for any kind of illegal good or service.

While this is the first article to appear on Robbins’ website about Bitcoin, last year he described it as a gamble. He told CNBC:

    I think [bitcoin] is very iffy. I don’t have a clue. I look at that as it’s like going to Vegas.

He went on to say that “it’s just for fun” and he knows he “could lose.” He prefers index funds for investments, at least as of that time.

Tony Robbins shares the mindset you need to invest in bitcoin from CNBC.


Tony Robbins: The Next Bitcoin Jesus?
We can speculate that the posting of an article on his website regarding Bitcoin is likely dipping his toes in the water. If the article garners a lot of attention and it seems like something his client base would be interested in, it might not be long before Robbins is the next Bitcoin evangelist, educating the masses and teaching people how not to get rekt.

Of course, Bitcoin already has its share of evangelists and professional speakers. Andreas Antonopoulos primarily travels the world addressing audiences on the nature and importance of Bitcoin, and his book Mastering Bitcoin is considered one of the most important books on the subject.

Before joining the Big Block crusade and fomenting a fork of the Bitcoin network into Bitcoin Cash, Roger Ver’s evangelism was so fervent and frequent that he was dubbed “Bitcoin Jesus” within and without the community.

One thing is for certain: Robbins has a wide reach. If he were suddenly to become a Bitcoin proponent during the next bull run, it could feasibly take him from millionaire to billionaire, regardless of how his own crypto portfolio worked out.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/tony-robbins-is-now-a-bitcoin-expert/

Well, I was all a victim to this new HitBTC's action.
My account was frozen January 1st, 2019 for an unnecessary reason.
Thank god my mourning period is going to be over today.
I feel really sad for HitBTC suspending my account though.

Stock markets worldwide, including Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the S&P 500, have posted disappointing yearly returns, with many indexes being compared to their performance during the financial crisis.

The S&P 500 is down 6.2% for 2018, while the DOW Jones Industrial Average is down 5.6% for 2018. These numbers, compared to the financial crisis, where the indexes posted yearly losses of 38.5% and 33.8% are a new low given the general bull sentiment surrounding markets going into 2018.

While the S&P 500 was up 9% during the first three quarters of 2018, it has marked a new milestone of ending the year in the negative digits at -6.2%. This is the first time the S&P closed negative digits on the yearly after rising for the first three quarters. Similarly, the NASDAQ composite fell 3.9% for 2018.

The main catalyst for this drop is said to be the sell-off that began in October.

There have been widespread concerns of an economic slowdown, along with fears that the Fed is making incorrect decisions with respect to monetary policy.


S&P 500 Down Year Over Year
The S&P 500 was on a great run throughout 2017, opening at around 2240 points and ending the year at 2674 points.


S&P 500 2017 performance

However, 2018 brought with it a lot of volatility, sharp trend reversals along with increased political tensions.

The trade war between US and China has resulted in fluctuating stock markets throughout 2018. However, recent developments indicate that the disputes might soon be resolved, as early as March 2019. This might be a good fundamental catalyst for markets worldwide. A trade agreement being chalked out might come into effect in March 2019.


S&P 500 2018 Performance

Markets in London experienced a similar downturn, with the FTSE 100 index posting a yearly drawdown of 12%. This contrast to the record high of 7859 points that the Index posted earlier this May.

There are several reasons the FTSE dropped severely during 2019. To begin with, trade tensions between US and China have affected stock markets globally. Secondly, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and concerns regarding US interest rates provoked a selloff within markets in UK.


Asia
Chinese stock markets took the worst hit, with the CSI 300 benchmark dropping nearly 27% at market close on December 27th. The primary cause for this drop is said to be the ongoing trade dispute with the Unites States.

Hong Kong’s HSI Index lost 13.6% this year, its worst since 2011 when it lost 19.97%

Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index lost 12.1% during 2018, its worst since the financial crisis.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/sp-500-and-stock-markets-worldwide-close-out-worst-year-since-2008/

The stock market crash in 2018 shredded billions off the wealthiest Americans. A staggering $76 billion were wiped off their balance sheets. Still, new billionaires were added to the infamous Forbes list, while some industry investors saw their fortune increase and decrease, at the same time, per a Bloomberg report.

Fifteen individuals were added to the Forbes 400 list of wealthiest Americans this year. Twelve of those were self-made entrepreneurs, who have built their fortunes in areas such as e-commerce, transportation, and digital currencies (first time).

At the same time, the Bloomberg Billionaire Index saw 31 additions in total, even though $500 billion in wealth was wiped out due to global trade tensions and an unpredictable President, Donald Trump. So who won big and who saw the worst losses in 2018?


Clear Winner of 2018: Jeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon Inc. and the wealthiest individual on the planet, tops the list of winners of 2018.


Bezos solidified his place at the top this year, with an increase of $24 billion to his wealth.

Jeff Bezos claimed the Iron Throne as the wealthiest man in the world. While he seemed to be engaged in a wrestle for the title with Microsoft owner Bill Gates in 2017, Bezos solidified his place at the top this year. His fortune increased with $26 billion in 2018. The 2018 Amazon rally gave him a net worth of $125 billion and made Bezos the biggest gainer for the second consecutive year.


Jeff Bezos gained the most wealth in 2018.


Tim Sweeney, the Creator of Fortnite
Fortnite is developed by Epic Games which is a privately held company where Tencent Holdings Limited owns 40%.


Tim Sweeney, the founder of Epic Games that has made Fortnite, was another big winner of 2018. The video game became an instant phenomenon in 2018 breaking multiple records.

The popularity of the video game increased Tim Sweeney’s wealth with $3.6 billion in 2018. The game might have gotten its fair share of criticism, but for Tim Sweeney 2018 has been an incredible booster.

Sweeney’s company, the privately held Epic Games, was effectively taken over by Tencent in 2012 for $330 million. Tencent Holdings Limited now owns 40% of the company.


2018 Biggest Loser: Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook Inc.
The last 12 months have been disastrous for Facebook Inc. and Mark Zuckerberg. The public became aware of multiple data breaches, and the Facebook share price has plummeted.


Zuckerberg saw his net worth drop by $20 billion.

From the Cambridge Analytica privacy scandal to the departure of WhatsApp founder Jan Koum and its disappointing second-quarter earnings. The 34-year-old Zuckerberg saw his net worth drop by $20.7 billion, leaving him with a net worth of $52 billion.


Another Tech Loser: Evan Spiegel and Snapchat (Snap Inc.)
Evan Spiegel, CEO of Snap Inc., has experienced the worst year since Snapchat became a public company trading under Snap Inc.


By the time of publishing, Snap had recovered to about $5.50.

Snapchat’s losses for 2018 were affected by the earnings of Snap Inc. with the company’s stock selling for an all-time low of $4.99 on Friday.  Fear of Snapchat’s ability to compete with platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram has created uncertainty for the technology company. Celebrities and users have heavily criticized Snapchat over issues such as its redesign and selection of ads.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/2018-stock-market-crash-shreds-76-billion-off-americas-wealthiest/

Breaking: Bakkt Raises $182 Million, What it Means for the State of Bitcoin Industry



Bakkt, a cryptocurrency exchange and liquidity provider created by the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company ICE has raised $182.5 million from a group of high profile investors and venture capital firms.

On December 31, on New Year’s Eve, Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler announced that Boston Consulting Group, CMT Digital, Eagle Seven, Galaxy Digital, Goldfinch Partners, Alan Howard, Horizons Ventures, Intercontinental Exchange, Microsoft’s venture capital arm, M12, Pantera Capital, PayU, the fintech arm of Naspers, and Protocol Ventures invested in the company, sharing the firm’s vision of driving institutional access for digital assets and providing support for merchants.

Loeffler said:

    Our work today is centered on driving institutional access for digital assets, along with merchant and consumer uses, and we’re already expanding on this vision, collaborating with great companies like Starbucks in these efforts.


Not All About the Bitcoin Price
As of December 31, the Bitcoin price remains down 80 percent from its all-time high at $19,500 and is en route to ending the year in the midst of a steep sell-off and a deep bear market.

But, according to Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler, 2018 has been the most active year for the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry, as it saw significant progress in strengthening the infrastructure supporting the asset class.

In December alone, Bakkt secured a $182 million investment from major venture capital and technology conglomerates, and ErisX, another U.S.-based cryptocurrency futures market, received $27.5 million from Nasdaq and Fidelity.



Bakkt is a portfolio company of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which also owns the New York Stock Exchange


While the value of crypto assets have dropped substantially since early 2018, Loffler emphasized that the price does not reflect the accomplishments of companies within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and the milestones the industry has achieved throughout the past 12 months.

She noted:

    Notably, 2018 was the most active year for crypto in its brief ten-year history. This was evidenced by rising investment in distributed ledger technology and digital assets, as well as by blockchain network metrics such as daily bitcoin transaction value and active addresses. Yet, these milestones tend to be overshadowed by the more narrow focus on bitcoin’s price, which has been seen by some, as a proxy for the potential of the technology.

As the institutional infrastructure for Bitcoin improves and the overall liquidity of crypto assets increases, the sector may see the inflow of more capital from institutional investors and high profile funds in the long run.

Several companies including Bakkt are actively working on various solutions to address the lack of merchant adoption of digital assets with partners in the likes of Starbucks and Microsoft.


Expect a Bakkt Delay
Some reports have suggested that the partial shutdown of the U.S. government could result in the delay of the Bakkt Bitcoin futures market launch on January 24.

In an official statement, Bakkt stated that the firm would provide an update in early 2019 on the intricacies of the firm’s plans in launching its Bitcoin futures market.

“Following consultation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ICE Futures U.S., Inc. expects to provide an updated launch timeline in early 2019, for the trading, clearing and warehousing of the Bakkt Bitcoin (USD) Daily Futures Contract,” the firm said.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/breaking-bakkt-raises-182-million-what-it-means-for-the-state-of-bitcoin-industry/

Bitcoin on Track to Replace Gold as Dominant Store of Value: Crypto VC



Venture capitalist Lou Kerner says bitcoin is well on its way to replacing gold as the dominant store of value, noting that its market cap has already surpassed that of silver.

“What [bitcoin] has evolved into is a store of value,” Kerner told Bloomberg. “Today, the main store of value is gold. It’s an $8 trillion [market]. Bitcoin today is around $60 billion, so it has an opportunity to actually replace gold as the dominant store of value.”

Kerner doubled-down on his remarks from August 2018, when he predicted that BTC would supplant gold as the most trusted store of value.


Crypto Will be ‘Bigger Than the Internet’
Kerner, the founding partner of New York-based CryptoOracle, said despite the current bear market, crypto would be a far more disruptive technology than the Internet.

“The disruption from that is gonna be bigger than the disruption that we saw from the Internet,” Kerner predicted. “Bitcoin is kind of the early leader, like the Yahoo of its day. And while it’s a massive thing, it’s not the thing [right now].”

But in 20 years, BTC and crypto will be off-the-charts, Kerner claimed.

“We really believe that in 20 years, bitcoin will have created trillions of dollars in value similar to how the Internet has,” he said. “We’re at the very beginning today.”

When asked why the bitcoin price has plunged from its record high of $19,500 last December, Kerner said it’s because the market got ahead of itself due to unchecked capitalism.

Kerner said virtual currencies and blockchain would eventually prove that they are far more revolutionary than first imagined.

“There’s something called Amara’s Law, which is that the impact of all great technological changes is overestimated in the short run, but underestimated in the long run,” he said.

Basically, Kerner is saying that the true impact of crypto and blockchain won’t be known until 20 years into the future.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-on-track-to-replace-gold-as-dominant-store-of-value-crypto-vc/

Bitcoin to End 2018 With 80% Drop, What Investors Should Expect in 2019

Following one of its biggest bull rallies in history to $19,500, Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end 2018 with an 80 percent drop from its all-time high.

As Bitcoin enters 2019 with a bear market status having suffered a steep sell-off in December, what can investors expect in the first two quarters of 2019?


Several Catalysts on the Horizon For Bitcoin
In the first quarter of next year, Bakkt, a cryptocurrency liquidity provider and exchange operated by the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company ICE, is set to launch a Bitcoin futures market.

In late 2017, CBOE and CME, two major futures market operators in the U.S., launched strictly regulated Bitcoin futures markets. But, they both are cash-settled markets that have minimal impact on the short-term price trend of digital assets.



BTC/USD | 2018 Performance


According to Jake Chervinsky, a government enforcement defense and securities litigation attorney at Kobre & Kim, Bakkt is a physically settled Bitcoin market that guarantees the delivery of BTC to its investors.

The Bitcoin-settled market of Bakkt could have a significant impact on the price of the dominant cryptocurrency as it will have an effect on the circulating supply of BTC.

He explained:

    Also noteworthy is the fact that Bakkt will custody and deliver real bitcoin. That means institutional inflows would reduce supply and thus (maybe) increase price too. This is different from other regulated futures markets like CME and CBOE, which only deal in cash-settled futures.

The potential effect on the Bitcoin price by Bakkt wholly depends on the demand from U.S. customers the company sees in the first several months of 2019.

Although Bakkt has already become a major catalyst for the recovery of BTC in the minds of many investors, the demand for Bakkt still remains uncertain, and it is possible that due to the recent sell-off, the market does not see a level of interest it initially expected.

It is still too early to determine whether Bakkt could contribute to a meaningful increase in the price of BTC in the mid-term. But, the launch of the first physically-settled Bitcoin futures market in the U.S. is positive for the sector and for the institutionalization of crypto assets as an asset class.

Nasdaq is also set to launch a Bitcoin futures market following the launch of Bakkt, around the time the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will announce its decision on the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing.


Will an ETF Happen?
As pro-crypto SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF could take days or years, and investors should not wait on it.

“Don’t hold your breath. I do caution people to not live or die on when a crypto or bitcoin ETF gets approved. You all know that I am working on trying to convince my colleagues to have a bit more of an open mind when it comes to [crypto]. I am not as charming as some other people,” she said.

Regardless of the ETF, the price of BTC will continue to move based on a cycle. In 2018, the industry has seen some of the most positive developments in recent years, yet it had minimal impact on the price of the asset.

Historically, the asset has taken about 62 weeks on average to recover from a major correction. Analysts generally expect Bitcoin to undergo a gradual recovery by the end of the second quarter of 2019.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-to-end-2018-with-80-drop-what-investors-should-expect-in-2019/

BlockTower Capital, a hedge fund which manages more than $130 million in client assets, made a $1 million bet last year that Bitcoin’s price would go above $50,000 by the end of 2018. The Hedge Fund is expected to lose over $1 million in options by the end of the week.


A Bitcoin Bet Gone Wrong
One of the largest crypto hedge funds in the world, which manages hundreds of millions of dollars in client assets, has made a shocking bet that it’s bound to lose by the end of the year.

BlockTower Capital’s co-founder and current chief information officer, Ari Paul, made a bet on behalf of the company on December 20, 2017, specifying that Bitcoin would be worth more than $50,000 by the end of 2018.

According to Business Insider, the bet would have enabled Paul, who spent just under $1 million on call options, to buy 275 bitcoins at $50,000 apiece any time before December 28, 2018. In total, if the options were exercised BlockTower could have spent up to $13.8 million.

However, with Bitcoin currently trading at around $3,800, it’s safe to say that BlockTower Capital won’t exercise those options.

At the time, the company stood by their decision saying it was a way to “risk a little to win a lot.” During an interview with CNBC on December 26, 2017, Paul said that “it was not a bet that something will happen, but a bet that something could happen,” and that he liked the odds and payout of the move.

Fast forward to December 2018, Paul told Business Insider that they “were not betting on or expecting” a Bitcoin rally. He claimed that the options were a way for the fund to maintain exposure to an extreme rally while reducing overall crypto exposure.

Perhaps Paul’s bet falls into the list of other lackluster 2018 predictions.


Reference: https://cryptoslate.com/blocktower-capital-lose-1-million-betting-bitcoin-would-hit-50000/

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Art Cashin, managing director of trading floor operations for investment firm UBS Financial Services, has firmly blamed United States President Donald Trump for the stock market volatility that caused the recent Dow Jones Industrial Average sell-off.

Veteran stock market trader Cashin blamed the latest government shutdown and Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve for the Dow Jones sell-off, telling CNBC:

    I think we lost maybe a couple of thousand points that we didn’t need to because of the disruptions that we saw.

Cashin told CNBC that “more quiet” from Washington could have allowed stock trading averages to recover, as expected end-of-year selling came to an end.


The Federal Reserve is Normalizing Rates

Dow Jones Industrial Average | Source: TradingView


The Federal Reserve is bearing the brunt of Trump‘s critiques over economic threats as it continues to raise interest rates to more normal levels.

Lower interest rates enjoyed by the US and around the globe over the last decade were a direct response to the threat of major economic depression in the aftermath of the banking crisis. They formed part of a strategy of quantitative easing (QE) which is now morphing into “normalization” as central banks cease boosting economies to let them operate under their own natural mechanisms.

Higher interest rates combined with trade woes and stock market fluctuations are fueling recession fears. More hikes from the Federal Reserve may cut into Trump’s high hopes for the US economy. Trump believes the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates too quickly. Cashin said:

    The president doesn’t seem to realize that the more he talks about what the Fed should do, the more that inhibits the Fed from doing it because they don’t want to look subservient to what’s going on. So that’s a bit of a problem.

Trading expert Jack Bouroudjian, chief economist and co-founder of the Universal Compute Exchange, agreed with Cashin, predicting the stock market could form a V-shaped bottom — meaning that stocks are mispriced at the top of selling. Bouroudjian said:

    Taking a little froth out of the market…is probably the best and healthiest thing we could possibly ask for.

The Dow ended Friday trading 0.33% down and up slightly across the entire trading week despite massive mid-week plunges which followed impressive, albeit uneven, rallies.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/ubs-director-blames-trump-white-house-for-dow-jones-sell-off/

Investor: Bitcoin is Undervalued, Individuals Building on it Will Lead to Recovery



Over the last 48 hours, following a large loss on Christmas, the Bitcoin price has recovered back to around $4,000.

The dominant cryptocurrency, which still holds a market valuation of over $64 billion, has demonstrated wild volatility in a wide price range from $3,100 to $4,300 throughout December, struggling to recover to November levels.

Last month, the cryptocurrency market was valued at around $220 billion. As of December 28, the valuation of cryptocurrencies remains at $133 billion, down $87 billion within a 30-day span.


Key to the Recovery of Bitcoin
According to Francis Pouliot, the CEO and co-founder of Bull Bitcoin, a company based in Canada, the asset will recover as individuals continue to build on top of the protocol and the infrastructure supporting the currency strengthens.

Throughout the past nine years, Bitcoin has consistently survived major corrections, which on some occasions worse than the 2018 bear market, as the builders, developers, and companies prepared to support the next wave of investors and users during a market downturn.



Bitcoin price (blue) vs. ethereum price (red) | Source: TradingView


Pouliot said:

    The way I see the price of Bitcoin: there are fundamental psychological, economics and social tenants that seem to create a similar pattern. Price rises fast, crashers down but at higher ladder with the new skin in the game added as value hodlers is discovered by the market. As an investor my these focus on the tail of distribution of Bitcoin network/ecosystem participants. Top new people active with skin+soul in the game, momentum, influence, resources, commitment, ideology, full nodes, sovereignty. It is People that give Bitcoin its value.

Cryptocurrencies were not present in the past when the global market demonstrated signs of a full-blown recession, and as such, the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset is yet to be tested by the market.

However, with leading economists expecting the U.S. stock market to face larger sell-offs in the first quarter of 2019 triggered by the rising Federal Reserve interest rate and the trade war between the U.S. and China, Bitcoin could serve as an alternative means of payment and long-term investment throughout the years to come.

On Time Magazine, Alex Gladstein the chief strategy officer at the Human Rights Foundation, wrote:

    To be sure, Bitcoin is still a nascent technology, and doesn’t offer cutting-edge usability, speed, or privacy. But engineers are constantly working to bring those attributes to Bitcoin by building better apps and on-ramps, upgrading the base protocol, and creating new second layer technologies like the Lightning Network, which could eventually mask and dramatically scale the number of possible bitcoin transactions per second.


Risk of Future Crash Declines
Throughout the past two years, many cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds have emerged with the intent of holding onto crypto assets as a long-term investment.

In the long run, Pouliot emphasized that as these hedge funds acquire tens of thousands of Bitcoin, the circulating supply of the digital asset will decline, restricting the potential amount of Bitcoin investors could buy in the public market.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/investor-bitcoin-is-undervalued-individuals-building-on-it-will-lead-to-recovery/

Travis Kling, a former Point72 Asset Management executive, a hedge fund that oversees $12.4 billion in assets, said that there is a big chance crypto becomes the best performing asset in 2019.

The Ikigai Fund founder made the case that cryptocurrencies were never present during a proper bear market in traditional finance and the decline of the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones could lead more investors into the cryptocurrency space.

He said:

    Crypto has never existed during a bear market in traditional assets. BTC was birthed at the very beginning of the largest monetary experiment ever- globally coordinated QE. Ending QE is causing pain There is a significant chance Crypto is the best performing asset class in 2019

    Crypto has never existed during a bear market in traditional assets.

    BTC was birthed at the very beginning of the largest monetary experiment ever- globally coordinated QE. Ending QE is causing pain

    There is a significant chance Crypto is the best performing asset class in 2019 pic.twitter.com/vIdKTrm5sV

    — Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) December 23, 2018

 
Will More Investors Enter Crypto?
This week, the U.S. stock market officially entered a bear market as the Nasdaq Composite lost more than 20 percent of its value within one quarter.

While the market would have to drop by an additional 20 percent to delete 2017 gains, which was the best performing year in recent history, a steep sell-off in the broader financial market has started to largely impact both large-scale conglomerates and small to medium-size businesses.

Kling, who now operates a cryptocurrency-focused fund, said that it makes “sense” for the crypto market to bottom before the stock market achieves a bottom, considering the intensity of the sell-off of U.S markets and the struggle of the Chinese economy.

“You’re already seeing that. Been seeing it all year. It would make complete sense to me that crypto would bottom out months before traditional asset classes,” the investor added.

In August, Kling created Ikigai Fund and resigned his position at Point72 with a strong belief in the long-term prospect of the cryptocurrency sector.

At the time, he emphasized that he believes cryptocurrencies have the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar asset class.

Since then, the valuation of the cryptocurrency market has more than halved from $300 billion to $144 billion. Still, Kling remains confident that the bear cycle of the cryptocurrency market will come to an end in the months to come, as it has done throughout the past nine years.

“Same as that earlier invention, I believe crypto will create trillions of dollars along the way. Already the market for virtual coins is valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. And it’s all just getting started. So I left Point72, billionaire Steven A. Cohen’s hedge fund, in December to continue my investing career, but in a new asset class,” Kling wrote on August 1.


Prospect of Recovery
Since early December, from $100 billion to $144 billion, the cryptocurrency market added $44 billion to its valuation amidst a strong corrective rally.

Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) have increased by around 60 percent within the past week, mostly due to extremely oversold conditions the market demonstrated.

But, many traders and analysts believe the bear market of cryptocurrencies is not over just yet but it may be at the last phase of the downtrend.


Reference: https://www.ccn.com/former-wall-street-investor-big-chance-crypto-is-best-performing-asset-in-2019/