I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.
Walls can disappear quickly once they start coming down, but 1—2 weeks would be a fantastic time frame. I think the dip in bitcoin prices over the past week hurt securities as people looked pull their investments out so that they could short bitcoin during the drop. With the price back hovering around 100USD/ BTC, I think a lot of money is coming back into the securities market in general. I think if a community member like TradeFortress who is heavily invested in ASICMINER through his BTCINVEST fund hedged some of the fund's ASICMINER holdings into ActiveMining, it would be a major vote of coup for ActiveMining, but such a long-sighted move is hardly justified until the wall shrinks to <10–25%. I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.
Not everyone will see it this way. Many people realise committing now at 0.0025 means ActM will be closer to realising their plans - only *then* will the price rise above 0.0025. Personally, I wouldn't risk putting my money elsewhere and assuming I can time a re-entry at 0.0025 just before the wall is consumed. I'd be afraid to wake up one morning to a price I 0.004 and be forced to buy back in with a smaller stake than before. Yeah I got burned on CIPHERMINE last night thinking I could make a few LTC by trading against BTC during the LTC/BTC price ratio drop. Vircurex went down with my LTC in tow and CIPHERMINE's wall got bought out by a single investor. So be wary of thinking walls will be long-lasting |
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Massive upswing in AMC/ActiveMining prices on BitFunder at the moment. Might we finally start eating the wall today? Looks like yesterday's dividend is paying dividends (sic) on share prices.
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ASICMiner depressed
ASICminer will have to spend a lot of money in the coming weeks (crapton of Avalon chips out into the wild) to ramp up their hash/s to keep their global hash rate. That means less dividends. I see people selling ASICminer in the near term and investing elsewhere. ActiveMining will peel off more than a few of those shares I'm sure. I wouldn't count ASICMINER rising in the short-term, there are rumors that they have serious hashing reserves and their profit distribution model during hardware sales periods always boost trading price of their shares. When September/October comes around, their business model will be seriously tested as there will finally be a competitive marketplace for ASIC equipment (Bitfury, KnC, Avalon & clones, Terahash? and maybe even more competitive if BFL ever gets their supply/manufacturing chain in order and caught up on pre-orders). I think ASICMINER will hold value until Sep/Oct but then fall down to 2.25-3.25 BTC/share. Your right about one assertion, though, this is the time to hedge on ActiveMining from ASICMINER as the valuation ratio of ASICMINER/ActiveMining will only decrease as ActiveMining's mining share increases. Once investors realize that ActiveMining is simply not going away, people will hedge. Where do you see dividends next week? They have to go down a bit if we're just running off Avalon mining revenue.
Mined 86BTC on these dividends right? There will be some slippage, and it depends on shares issued between now and then, but I could see 0.000014 - 0.000016 per being the case I would love a tidy weekly return of 0.56% — 0.64% (on share price of 0.0025 BTC/share) |
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Where do you see dividends next week? They have to go down a bit if we're just running off Avalon mining revenue.
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you have a decent amount of capital right now, how about you use that as collateral for a loan with no payments for a year, remove the bid wall, and let the market do its thang
leverage baby
interesting idea. Where can I get such a loan? Coinlenders would be a possibility A few consecutive weeks of massive ActiveMining dividends near this week's level may dissolve the wall anyway. I don't agree that ActiveMining needs to take on debt to pay the NRE. When we get the 20,000 Avalon chips online, we should improve our mining share, which should convince some skeptics to join up and take down the wall (if it is still around by the end of August anyway). |
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have they posted any news anywhere? i hope my deposits still go there from the trc and dvc faucets that im waitin payment for :/
Back up now. |
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Yes, me too. Decided to run off with my 45 litecoin? I new I risked too much.  |
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I'm in the same boat. Not 30 hours but almost. I just sent Ken a message and he seems like he is pretty on top of things so I think it's fine and I'm in his "hold bin" for some reason.
And 30 minutes after sending him a PM he responded. I was right, and got delayed because of something I did. Ken is on top of things  I'm glad this was taken care of—The whole transfer is a bit tricky, but I think it is going as smoothly as is possible given its complexity and manual nature. |
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Those lines were just from the original contract of May this year, when there weren't any avalons hashing. I don't think Ken has any asicminer shares right now, since all dividends are coming from the avalons. Check the ActiviMining contract, it's much simple, clearer and updated! Yes, those shares were sold off a while ago I believe. Thanks for the clarification. Anyone watching the Avalon chip delivery speculation over in Custom Hardware? (link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252233.msg2694806#msg2694806) It would be nice to get those 20,000 chips online by the end of September. BTW, For those who are currently selling below 0.0025: Thank you for your short-sightedness. Personally, I think selling before the 20,000 avalon chips come online is se laedit. |
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This is hardly surprising. Avalon was started reluctantly to create balance for BFL (which they failed to do since BFL was very late). Their director has repeatedly expressed reluctance to staying in the ASIC manufacturing market. It is hardly surprising that some of their team would be engaged by their manufacturing partners—who make money by continued, growth in manufacturing. What surprise is it that this new group would want to produce more efficient chips as well? This split was both inevitable and necessary for all parties involved.
I think we all hope Avalon distributes their bulk chips soon and that this split is not running counter to timely delivery of bulk chip orders.
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Ken:
Investing in ASICminer shares as a means to preserve capital is a *really bad* idea for capital savings.
The problem is that they can crash by over 90% for they could be grossly overvalued.
For example: At 400,000 shares x 4 BTC/share their market cap is 1.6 million BTC. It is risky to buy at this valuation.
Please read history about South Sea company stock bubble.
-Technologov.
I agree with you Technologov, but ASICMINER shares may be about to jump up above 5.0 again with news trickling out of their 5GHash/s and 10GHash/s miners up for sale in China. (link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2696280#msg2696280). This kind of news generally gets ASICMINER prices rising. So, in the short-term, we are likely to gain from the strategy (albeit risky). It might be a good idea to liquidate those positions at 5.0—5.25, and channel those funds to the NRE or assembly costs of the Avalon clones. It would undercut dividends in the short term, though. |
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Can anyone confirm recieving their new shares after sending to AMC-TENDER on bitfunder? I pretty much did it hours after you could start and nothing so far.
(if your AMC shares were tendered on BitFunder) Check to make sure your AMC shares did not get bounced back to your account after sending (there was a few users whose AMC shares were accidentally sent back early during tendering process—myself, one of them) . If AMC shares were erroneously sent back to your BitFunder account, do BOTH OF THESE: transfer the shares to the tender account on BitFunder AND resend the e-mail as described before. After repeating the process, I got my new shares in ActiveMining. I hope this helps you. Best, Exo |
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Honestly, I get where your coming from (I have a BFL ore-order). But, using the word "Scam" on hardware producers thread is likely to be deleted under all circumstances even if your scam comments are tangential rather than a direct accusation against the company (i.e. "taking pre-orders is what scammers do"). You have to understand that legit companies tightly control public relations (and so do scammers).
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If it's a scam, then Ken has left himself very exposed by registering in the US. Also, a couple of AMC's biggest doubters are heading on a community sponsored road trip to check out AMC/VMC. (Ref: see AMC'S security thread.) So, I would hold off on those conclusions until that fact-finding mission is fulfilled.
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This is hardly proof you are not trolling. You seek to prove your innocence by confirming your guilt.  Please follow the history. I wasn't trolling at start. I was asking legitimate questions who were ignored. Now i'm trolling since i was treated like this by the OP. Since he is allowed to delete my legitimate questions i think i'm allowed to troll. Troll on! My point is: you are invalidating your argument that Ken deletes rational posts by making irrational posts. |
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This is hardly proof you are not trolling. You seek to prove your innocence by confirming your guilt. |
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https://bitfunder.com/asset/ActiveMiningAs I said, it happening already. As soon as AM shares are in peoples hands - they will sell and undercut the 2mil+ wall of shares at .0025 Now, the price will simply start drifting down as people cut in front of each other to sell ... boom, price will be the same as AMC. Price will never increase so long as the wall is there. So people hoping to buy AMC shares now, and convert to AM for a profit - will fail. The price on both AMC and AM will be the same. So no point in trying to buy AMC cheap, and profit on AM - price points will be the same I agree your points are valid, but you may be underestimating the impact of a perceived value increase in AM regarding the increased ownership in VMC and all dividends up to 0.0025. So, we may just see a fair slice come out of the wall as new investors join up with Active Miner. Personally, I am holding long. |
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Weird.. I transferred my shares on Bitfunder to the proper name, and I just got my shares returned to me as AMC again..
Hope this goes smooth. I'm a little worried.
Anyone else experiencing this same problem? I had the same problem, but Ken sent me an e-mail and asked me to redo the transfer and the tender e-mail. I now have my shares of Active Mining. |
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one question - comes Havelock Investments not in consideration?
Because Havelock wouldn't allow this crap most likely... Are you seriously naming whatever this is AM? As if you weren't enough of an ASICMINER wanna-be already...  In other news, Friedcat has also officially confirmed my new status as a board member!
I am truly honored and proud to have achieved this, and I look forward to playing any role I can to further ASICMINER's success.
I don't think anyone can or should seriously consider ThickAsThieves opinion of Active Mining as unbiased given his vested interest in ASICMINER. |
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