Thanks for the link. Just voted as well.

Mintpal's contribution to DRK volume was substantial, it seems. Would be a good exchange to be listed on.

Valid point about Bitstamp's reduced market share. The order book picture is much less clear on Bitfinex, with much wilder swings in either direction. I suspect that's because of the possibility to trade (and fill the order book) on margin.

In any case, the order book history is only one possible "snapshot" of the situation. Daily Chaikin Money Flow paints a similar picture, as does volume, which is anemic compared to volume during the bear market.

I like your style. Hope you stick around.

There it is: one picture to summarize why and how we got out of the bear valley in May. But also: why you shouldn't really expect price to reach the moon anytime soon.

Huh?

Oh, alright, I'll state the obvious: selling pressure declined, buying pressure is only up slightly. The order book history (I picked stamp) shows that pretty well. In other words, our recovery is - so far - driven mainly by the reluctance to sell, not by overwhelming desire to buy.

And that's okay for now. Just keep that in mind when we get near $700 again and you start feeling that urgent desire again to post pictures of rockets and moons.


(disclosure: I'm long. Will trade big enough swings should they arise, but I see more potential to the upside right now than to the downside. Just not that much upside potential, see above.)

I base all my trading decision on the output of his 3 layer perceptron.

In fact, I don't even double check 'em, I just have a bot hooked straight to the output.

Profit so far: Over 9000%!

Nice story OP, made me smile. Let us know how she reacted.

And nevermind the trolls. It's tough being a 30-something year old virgin on the Internet, so they need to let off some steam in here.

Latest? I don't know... Alpaca socks webshop v2, maybe?

The last one? Visa, I'd say

Eh. I'm not that impressed. Textbook 'recovery on falling volume' so far.





I still think the more likely scenario is another dip into the 500s, followed by 1 or 2 weeks of low volume sideways at 560, maybe 590, then breakout.

There's the occasional insightful remark between all the selective arguing and biased perception.

Anyway, we're all wasting our time in here, so I don't hold it again the prof that he wastes his time by playing anthropologist in here.

Yeah... that's where the "don't quote trolls" rule kinda falls apart. You might not like jorge's posts, and I'd agree that he's stubborn as hell, but if he's a troll, he's probably the most polite and educated one you'll find in here. So I respond to him. So, I'm afraid, you will occasionally see a post of his as a quote in one of my posts.

Stamp clearly led the "panic" part of the current correction, Huobi/OkC resisting at first. Didn't matter though, they went through it as well. Then when they made a new low 2 days ago, stamp already was already cautiously recovering. The Western market don't need to wait until China is sleeping any more than China has to wait for the Western markets to sleep before interesting things can happen.

Which would place touching the previous ATH into late Q3/early Q4 2014, and actually making a new one into 2015.

I'm okay with that, matches my own (fuzzy, LT) ideas pretty well, but this is probably a hard sell  to the salivating bulls that want to break $1000 in 2 weeks from now.

You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.

I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.

Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.

Nice one :) Made me grin like an idiot.

It looks similar enough, but (on-exchange) volume doesn't fit. I personally believe we will see a local peak (that doesn't deserve the word "bubble" though) next month, but the overall theme will be one and a half step back for each two steps forward for a longer time still, imo.

Not entirely the same. By posting, I can chose to unwatch the thread at any point but still go back to it if I ever need to (and forgot about it) by 'show new replies...'.

Posting to subscribe.

Well, for fairness sake, nobody likes being told that his 'get rich quick and without any effort' scheme isn't going to work out quite as smoothly as originally imagined.

You're simplifying the situation a bit too much.

Backtesting TA isn't easy at all. The study mentions the crucial point here: ex post facto selection (of methods and parameters). It is not enough that I give you some set of parameters and we see how it performs, I need to be able to justify the selection of those parameters from a non-privileged point in time.

Also, where do you get the idea from that "if only 2/3 of the studies are positive, it's no better than noise". Depending on the selection and setup of the study, the ratio could be a lot lower and still be considered significant. To show that TA works, there needs to some algorithm that can be shown to outperform the market in a way that is unlikely to be happening by pure chance. If you as an investor/trader then want to employ that (or similar) algorithms is a different question altogether, i.e. the result could be that TA works, but the benefit could still be too small for most traders to make it worth their while employing TA (not saying that's the case... just that it's a possible outcome)

Did I mention I'm lazy?