Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[macsga]

Just relax until the next pump...

[JorgeStolfi]

[ Plot of wallet numbers allegedly showing growing interest in cryptocurrencies ]
http://media.coindesk.com/2014/05/Screen-Shot-2014-05-28-at-11.59.49-AM.png

Those plots show total wallets created up to a certain date, correct? Which means that the numbers plotted would keep increasing even if actual usage was decreasing?

[Adrian-x]

[ Plot of wallet numbers allegedly showing growing interest in cryptocurrencies ]
http://media.coindesk.com/2014/05/Screen-Shot-2014-05-28-at-11.59.49-AM.png

Those plots show total wallets created up to a certain date, correct? Which means that the numbers plotted would keep increasing even if actual usage was decreasing?

Sure we pressure like fiat Bank accounts they contain BTC.

[YogoH]

Wal-Mart now selling Butterfly Labs bitcoin miners.


Who is down to take advantage of their return policy?

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Butterfly-Labs-Bitcoin-Miner-10-GH-S-Processor-USB-2.0-BF0010G/34952957

[octaft]

Wal-Mart now selling Butterfly Labs bitcoin miners.


Who is down to take advantage of their return policy?

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Butterfly-Labs-Bitcoin-Miner-10-GH-S-Processor-USB-2.0-BF0010G/34952957

You're actually ordering it from tigerdirect, and have to adhere to their return policy, not Walmart's. 15% restocking fee will sting, and it has to be sent back within 14 days.

[jl2012]

Wal-Mart now selling Butterfly Labs bitcoin miners.


Who is down to take advantage of their return policy?

http://www.walmart.com/ip/Butterfly-Labs-Bitcoin-Miner-10-GH-S-Processor-USB-2.0-BF0010G/34952957

It takes 36 months for ROI!

[JayJuanGee]

They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my money fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity 

I'm currently 100% fiat and it doesn't feel good. I would love to get more coins, if the price goes up that is also nice

ok, I'm gonna stop posting now, cuz I'm probably just being stupid at this point, but if you are 100% fiat, how would the price going up be nice for you?

heavy into fiat has always been a scary place for me.

Increasing price will be seen as something positive by the public and the media. That will help adoption etc. Second I would love it if this article got it totally wrong: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12 We are already in mid 2014 now so we are actually close to proving Mr. Williams wrong.

If you are relying upon that article to make your bitcoin investment decisions, then you are likely going to miss the train. 

Surely, we are all guessing to some degree about the direction of bitcoin prices; however, at this point, it seems you would be lucky to get coins in the lower $500s, or possibly in the upper $400s.  Even though we currently have some downward priceward movement, it seems that within the next few weeks, BTC prices are going to stabilize  $600 and beyond

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

Don't do all super bull but if 1 in 20 wind up using Bitcoin in some way we are somewhere between 0.5 and 1% adoption. I'd think. Bitcoin won't have that much penetration but be happy if 1 in a 100 found it useful so maybe we're between 3 and 5 % total adoption or maybe you're a laggard, and we're bag holders. How long is a piece of string?

These seem to be very conservative estimates.  Currently, it seems that we have well fewer than 7 million people who have any kind of bitcoin investment.  That is 1/1000 of the world population, if Bitcoin were to achieve that level of adoption.    1/20 would be about 350 million.  That seems very achievable, and we seem to be about 1/50th of the way there... so .5% adoption seems to be a fairly conservative estimate... if we anticipate approximately a conservative 350 million person user base.

Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

Don't do all super bull but if 1 in 20 wind up using Bitcoin in some way we are somewhere between 0.5 and 1% adoption. I'd think. Bitcoin won't have that much penetration but be happy if 1 in a 100 found it useful so maybe we're between 3 and 5 % total adoption or maybe you're a laggard, and we're bag holders. How long is a piece of string?

*to address the bolded part:

I think 1 in 20 gets us to 5% - just saying.

How do you figure this 5%?

[JayJuanGee]

Imagine a room full of people, not a big room (a large garage maybe) and they and cooperating to build something.

I don't think that is a good analogy for this thread...  

Rather, a bar where a couple hundred random football fans are watching a game on TV and betting on it?  

Maybe you're right, but don't forget to add the old guy in the corner saying "This 'football' thing will never catch on, you know"

I was trying to think of how Jorge fits into his own analogy. This is perfect!

I really hate to give Jorge so much attention, but he does make it tempting... through his sophisticated trolling methods... he he he ...

The first analogy may have been better (the building of a project in a garage); however, the sportsbar  analogy is also interesting. 

Jorge would truly be the guy in the bar, who would NOT order from the bar, but bring in some food from the outside, and he would NOT be drinking, b/c he disapproves such.  No one would really like him b/c he would be commenting on the game, but NOT know what the fuck he was talking about... bringing in golf analogies and such or talking about the immorality of the whole sport and drinking thing.

[edwardspitz]

They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my money fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity 

I'm currently 100% fiat and it doesn't feel good. I would love to get more coins, if the price goes up that is also nice

ok, I'm gonna stop posting now, cuz I'm probably just being stupid at this point, but if you are 100% fiat, how would the price going up be nice for you?

heavy into fiat has always been a scary place for me.

Increasing price will be seen as something positive by the public and the media. That will help adoption etc. Second I would love it if this article got it totally wrong: http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12 We are already in mid 2014 now so we are actually close to proving Mr. Williams wrong.

If you are relying upon that article to make your bitcoin investment decisions, then you are likely going to miss the train. 

Surely, we are all guessing to some degree about the direction of bitcoin prices; however, at this point, it seems you would be lucky to get coins in the lower $500s, or possibly in the upper $400s.  Even though we currently have some downward priceward movement, it seems that within the next few weeks, BTC prices are going to stabilize  $600 and beyond

If i relied on that article at all and invested in bitcoin at all I would be about as crazy as a member of a suicide cult. However I do agree that things are looking up a bit after last night where the bears in China again dumped into the wall at 3500 and again failed to bring the price down below that. There is so much resistance and I'm sure that the battle for the 1w MA and $600 can go on for a while. This was "just" round 3. If I only cared about profit I would prefer that the price went down, but on a personal level I would just like to see the bulls win this one.

[kurious]

bids are doing the tsunami, blast off looks imminent

cant wait to give all my friends 10bits with the new FB app coming out soon.

Like

Just went to try to register the domains 'facecoin.com' and 'facebits.com'

Too late - should have thought of it a year or two ago

[Gimmelfarb]

bids are doing the tsunami, blast off looks imminent

cant wait to give all my friends 10bits with the new FB app coming out soon.

Like

Just went to try to register the domains 'facecoin.com' and 'facebits.com'

Too late - should have thought of it a year or two ago

oh well. my thinking here is that it's probably for the best that we don't start conflating facebook with bitcoin. let's get these folks off on the right foot. just a thought. 

[molecular]

I present the Matroska Cup & Handle pattern:



$1000 bitcoin party around October... see you there

EDIT: which, by the way, has worked before very well:

can there be a cup & handle inside a cup & handle ?

[AceWallen]

i must say, that first cup and handle seems far more speculative than the one you pointed out in november. that's not to say that i wouldn't LOVE to see a rocket to $1k right now.

[Richy_T]

The facebook thing makes a lot of sense. I got 1/10 of the way along writing an app that would have been able to be recoded to do that fairly easily (being able to award people points). Unfortunately, Facebook changed their API that would have removed a lot of the fun of using it so I shelved it.

Though personally, I'd be a bit wary of holding that much of other-peoples money (you will presumably have to load up before you can send any). Good luck to them though.

[molecular]

i must say, that first cup and handle seems far more speculative than the one you pointed out in november. that's not to say that i wouldn't LOVE to see a rocket to $1k right now.

It seemed pretty speculative to me back in November, too.

Let's look back from Christmas and see how it went.

[MICRO]

I present the Matroska Cup & Handle pattern:



$1000 bitcoin party around October... see you there

EDIT: which, by the way, has worked before very well:

can there be a cup & handle inside a cup & handle ?

Hm... Interesting. Never saw this before. But looks promising . I will save link to ur post, and check it in October to se how close u are .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation