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1721  Economy / Gambling / Re: Stop gambling your coins unless you're playing for entertainment! on: October 18, 2012, 01:04:12 PM
The more you play, the more you're likely to lose them all. Don't play BTC gambling games to try and make you rick or "turn 0.24 btc into 0.25 btc for a nice number, they're not worth it. Only gamble if you want to lose your coins.



But gambling is the single solitary way I have made my coins.  I started from zero and have piled up dozens and dozens of BTC, all from gambling.

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say not to place bets that have a negative expected value as a known outcome? If one can find bets where the expected value is generally positive should one not take those coins?

I do.
Where the hell do you find a gambling service that has a positive EV?

If you have a good martingale strategy and a bit of good luck, you can play for tens of thousands of rounds, before you lose it all. If you walk away with your winnings before then, you have won.
1722  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 18, 2012, 03:36:33 AM
I support feedom of movement, I would like to see the borders opened much more than they are now, and practical policies and procudures put into place for people to immigrate legally.

You don't see US states putting up border patrolls and inspection points, this freedom of movement has been a great boon to the US. Why would we not see similar benefits from having national borders unrestricted?

++

I'm glad my family immigrated when Ellis Island was open, it helped us a lot. I want others to have that same freedom. We obviously need to find ways to more productively integrate immigrants. Each person represents a tremendous potential both economically and socially. Only seeing the potential downsides to immigration seems un-american to me.

Immigration, illegal or otherwise, is only a problem when:

a) the country is getting too full
b) immigrants come for a free lunch

a isn't happening
b is happening from mexico because of government handouts.   get rid of the handouts "stealing from peter to pay paul" and you won't have this problem anymore.

M

B is irrelevant.    Yes, people have been given handouts, but Mexicans are not getting anywhere near what they put in.  They are a net positive to the economy.  We are FUCKING ourselves by encouraging hard workers to leave.  Maybe I am in an usual area (Maryland) but I have only seen Mexicans working hard on roads, picking crops and doing outdoor work.  I have seen them doing jobs that we can not fill in Maryland without them.  On the Eastern Shore we do not have enough Mexicans to pick the fields.  

They might be a net positive for the near term, but what about the future. The slave owners 200 years ago also thought it was a net positive to own black slaves, they didn't think their sons and daughters will one day be wage slaves to support a 25% unemployed black population that rely on welfare/food stamps.

racist much?

Black unemployment is not 25%.  It is not even 15%.  

For 2012 food stamps are less then 80 billion dollars (projected) , defense is 1000 to 1400 billion dollars.   And while it is silly to break down into race, the 85% employees blacks are paying taxes to support those on the food stamps.  Get over the race bullshit, that is not the problem with the budget.  

You are really out of touch with reality, actually 25% is already a generous estimate, I think it may be as high as 50%. The 13% official black unemployment figure is only for those who are "actively seeking work but can't find work". How many blacks are not actively seeking work and just live on welfare/food stamps? foodstamps is not the only program, there are also housing, medicaid, prison (55% prison population are blacks), which together cost almost a trillion and would probably erase the deficit overnight if these programs were abolished.

Btw, defense is big, but not that big. For example defense was 895B in 2011, while welfare 565B + Medicaid 275B = 840B just on the federal level, remember the states don't spend anything on defense, but do have their own state level welfare programs, that's another hundreds of billions on welfare.
1723  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 18, 2012, 01:34:27 AM
I have seen them doing jobs that we can not fill in Maryland without them.  On the Eastern Shore we do not have enough Mexicans to pick the fields. 

Maryland is not unique. The same can be said about practically every state.

What are Mexicans doing this job?  If they can "make a living" from it, why can't Americans?  What's different?


M

Americans will not settle for working $7 an hour, in a hot field for 14 hours. If the wage was higher, the business would be unprofitable. Everyone has their price and the price of an American is too high.

That's false, if they can't find anyone to work the fields, that's because their pay is too low. It won't be unprofitable if everyone was paying higher wages and raising prices. Food is too cheap in this country, the waste of food is pretty disturbing to be honest (estimated 40% food produced go to waste).
1724  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 18, 2012, 01:32:03 AM
I support feedom of movement, I would like to see the borders opened much more than they are now, and practical policies and procudures put into place for people to immigrate legally.

You don't see US states putting up border patrolls and inspection points, this freedom of movement has been a great boon to the US. Why would we not see similar benefits from having national borders unrestricted?

++

I'm glad my family immigrated when Ellis Island was open, it helped us a lot. I want others to have that same freedom. We obviously need to find ways to more productively integrate immigrants. Each person represents a tremendous potential both economically and socially. Only seeing the potential downsides to immigration seems un-american to me.

Immigration, illegal or otherwise, is only a problem when:

a) the country is getting too full
b) immigrants come for a free lunch

a isn't happening
b is happening from mexico because of government handouts.   get rid of the handouts "stealing from peter to pay paul" and you won't have this problem anymore.

M

B is irrelevant.    Yes, people have been given handouts, but Mexicans are not getting anywhere near what they put in.  They are a net positive to the economy.  We are FUCKING ourselves by encouraging hard workers to leave.  Maybe I am in an usual area (Maryland) but I have only seen Mexicans working hard on roads, picking crops and doing outdoor work.  I have seen them doing jobs that we can not fill in Maryland without them.  On the Eastern Shore we do not have enough Mexicans to pick the fields. 

They might be a net positive for the near term, but what about the future. The slave owners 200 years ago also thought it was a net positive to own black slaves, they didn't think their sons and daughters will one day be wage slaves to support a 25% unemployed black population that rely on welfare/food stamps.
1725  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 09:36:54 PM
Why he hasn't disclosed which loopholes he want to close on the Federal level? because that would be too easy for Obama to steal, Obama has already stolen his idea of "closing loopholes" shown by yesterday's debate. Of course Obama has no idea which loopholes to close, since Obama has ZERO record of closing them after having the job for 4 years. Romney has the experience and the record, and that's good enough for me to believe him.

This post highlights the problem with politics in America.  Ideas on how to fix the country cannot be stolen.  If it is a good idea I do not care of Ron Paul, Romney or Obama it. 

There is no secret sauce, there is no secret idea that Romney has to fix the country.  The problem is not the ideas, it is the resolve of getting them done.  This requires BOTH sides to co-operate.  So far they do not seem to be able to do that. 

Sure it can be. In business, people steal ideas all the time, and Romney is 100% aware of it, this is why he don't want to give specifics. I disagree that idea is not important, idea is very important, it differentiates between the right way and the wrong way, if ideas are not important, then it's like saying being right or wrong is not important. Also even if everyone agrees on the right idea, it's still important who implements it. If Obama just steals Romney's idea and try to implement, I would say it'll probably fail, because Obama simply don't have the business sense, experience and intelligence to successfully implement Romney's ideas.
1726  Other / Off-topic / Re: Who just sent me Bitcoin? on: October 17, 2012, 09:21:18 PM
share a piece of heaven with me dude

100k satoshi just for spits and wiggles. Grin

hah thanks
1727  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: China: Block origin/relay on: October 17, 2012, 09:18:22 PM
This means where the mined block came from?
1728  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 08:16:57 PM
Quote
there is nothing, NOTHING! that will create "enough" revenue

not defense cuts, not social security, certainly not the more politically palatable pittances bandied about by one candidate or another

it is all smoke and mirrors now, until the wheels come off in earnest

That's ludicrous. While it is most likely that the problems will not be remedied, it certainly is possible with persistent focus and time to get out of the debt problem we have. Canada went from ~64% GDP public debt in 1997 to ~28% public debt in 2008. I don't think we WILL course correct, but its definitely possible.

We're at 80% of GDP and well over 100% if you look at gross debt.  Plus, we aren't as responsible as Canadians.

That's mostly thanks to Obama, increasing the debt from 10T to 16T in a matter of 4 years.

Right... it couldn't have anything to do with Bush fucking up the economy and getting us involved with two wars.  Sure, Obama's very far from perfect, but I doubt you could have done better given the same situation.

The wars started in 2003, and they only had a tiny effect on deficit or debt, the defict and debt didn't increase so dramatically until 2009 when Obama took office. So I don't think it's the wars.


Bush didn't fuck up the economy, the two biggest recessions in the past 20 years, were caused by dotcom bubble and the housing bubble, correct? Both are actually caused by Bill Clinton. The dotcom bubble is pretty evident, it happened entirely within Clinton's administration, and Clinton did nothing, he was the biggest cheerleader for the dotcom bubble. When the bubble went crashing down, he simply handed the recession to Bush. The housing bubble is a little more complicated, as housing cycles are very slow. But I think most people who investigated the cause, can agree that Clinton's huge expansion of the "Community Re-investment Act", allowing Fannie and Freddie to blindly guarantee subprime mortgages, played a big part in forming that bubble. Bush actually asked for regulation of Fannie and Freddie, but the proposal got shot down by democrats in Congress.

Nice graph, but the funding for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars weren't included in the budget, so they won't show up on that chart.  Obama called BS and started counting it.  That's why it looks so much worse after he took office.  http://community.thenest.com/cs/ks/forums/thread/55667611.aspx

Not true, the graph wouldn't be much different even if you add the war costs that were omitted from budget. Also the national debt can't lie, Bush increased the debt by 4.5T in 8 years, Obama increased the debt by 6T in 4 years, with wars that are supposedly has been winding down, I don't think it can be explained by war costs.
1729  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 07:16:39 PM
Quote
there is nothing, NOTHING! that will create "enough" revenue

not defense cuts, not social security, certainly not the more politically palatable pittances bandied about by one candidate or another

it is all smoke and mirrors now, until the wheels come off in earnest

That's ludicrous. While it is most likely that the problems will not be remedied, it certainly is possible with persistent focus and time to get out of the debt problem we have. Canada went from ~64% GDP public debt in 1997 to ~28% public debt in 2008. I don't think we WILL course correct, but its definitely possible.

We're at 80% of GDP and well over 100% if you look at gross debt.  Plus, we aren't as responsible as Canadians.

That's mostly thanks to Obama, increasing the debt from 10T to 16T in a matter of 4 years.

Right... it couldn't have anything to do with Bush fucking up the economy and getting us involved with two wars.  Sure, Obama's very far from perfect, but I doubt you could have done better given the same situation.

The wars started in 2003, and they only had a tiny effect on deficit or debt, the defict and debt didn't increase so dramatically until 2009 when Obama took office. So I don't think it's the wars.


Bush didn't fuck up the economy, the two biggest recessions in the past 20 years, were caused by dotcom bubble and the housing bubble, correct? Both are actually caused by Bill Clinton. The dotcom bubble is pretty evident, it happened entirely within Clinton's administration, and Clinton did nothing, he was the biggest cheerleader for the dotcom bubble. When the bubble went crashing down, he simply handed the recession to Bush. The housing bubble is a little more complicated, as housing cycles are very slow. But I think most people who investigated the cause, can agree that Clinton's huge expansion of the "Community Re-investment Act", allowing Fannie and Freddie to blindly guarantee subprime mortgages, played a big part in forming that bubble. Bush actually asked for regulation of Fannie and Freddie, but the proposal got shot down by democrats in Congress.
1730  Other / Off-topic / Re: Who just sent me Bitcoin? on: October 17, 2012, 07:09:16 PM
share a piece of heaven with me dude
1731  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 07:06:21 PM
I'm going with the honest man.  The liar pisses me off.  

Both candidate has to lie about certain things in the campaign, that's just the way it is. Otherwise you simply won't get elected. The most honest president in the past 100 years was Jimmy Carter, and he wasn't really that great as President.
1732  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 07:04:17 PM
Quote
there is nothing, NOTHING! that will create "enough" revenue

not defense cuts, not social security, certainly not the more politically palatable pittances bandied about by one candidate or another

it is all smoke and mirrors now, until the wheels come off in earnest

That's ludicrous. While it is most likely that the problems will not be remedied, it certainly is possible with persistent focus and time to get out of the debt problem we have. Canada went from ~64% GDP public debt in 1997 to ~28% public debt in 2008. I don't think we WILL course correct, but its definitely possible.

We're at 80% of GDP and well over 100% if you look at gross debt.  Plus, we aren't as responsible as Canadians.

That's mostly thanks to Obama, increasing the debt from 10T to 16T in a matter of 4 years.
1733  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 06:57:27 PM
Bluntly, it seems *impossible* -- they're just aren't the kinds of loopholes that would create enough revenue, other than loopholes that would hit the middle class and small businesses heavily.


there is nothing, NOTHING! that will create "enough" revenue

not defense cuts, not social security, certainly not the more politically palatable pittances bandied about by one candidate or another

it is all smoke and mirrors now, until the wheels come off in earnest

When Romney got elected to MA governor in 2002, MA was also facing a huge budget deficit, few would even lend money to MA anymore, the state was nearly insolvent. 4 years later, MA had a balanced budget almost every single year under Romney, the financial situation certainly turned around.

Sure it's not enough to just close loopholes, and that's not what Romney is saying, this is just one method to help achieve his goal. In MA, closing the loopholes created $1.5B new revenue, it was not enough to erase the deficit, but these little things add up, and they do help.
1734  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 06:52:31 PM
Bluntly, it seems *impossible* -- they're just aren't the kinds of loopholes that would create enough revenue, other than loopholes that would hit the middle class and small businesses heavily.
there is nothing, NOTHING! that will create "enough" revenue

not defense cuts, not social security, certainly not the more politically palatable pittances bandied about by one candidate or another

it is all smoke and mirrors now, until the wheels come off in earnest
The only possibility I can think of is that he's imagining that the plan will create enormous additional economic growth and that will lead to increased tax revenue over the next ten years or so. If that's what he's thinking, his numbers are probably wildly unrealistic. But we can't really know since he won't share them.

On an unrelated note, I was thinking about more about Kokojie's "Why he hasn't disclosed which loopholes he want to close on the Federal level? because that would be too easy for Obama to steal, Obama has already stolen his idea of "closing loopholes" shown by yesterday's debate." That sounds almost treasonous to me. Is winning the election really more important to him than balancing the budget? If Obama will commit to the key elements of Romney's super-awesome tax plan, that means the country probably gets it no matter which candidate wins. Putting winning the election ahead of the country's best interests would totally disqualify him, IMO. I hope that's not what he's thinking.

The best plans means nothing if it's implemented by an imbecile. Obama simply don't have the necessary experience and business sense to implement Romney's plan, this is why in the business world, as a fresh college grad you don't usually get good jobs, because you lack experience. Obama can steal Romney's idea to win the election, but he can't actually implement them correctly due to his inexperience and incompetence.
1735  Other / Off-topic / Re: Work on: October 17, 2012, 03:06:31 PM
People should do it because they want to do it, not because they're made to do it.

They you would not have any, for example, garbage sorters. I can't think of anyone that would "want" to sort garbage all day long. Same goes for a lot of manual labor jobs.
1736  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: 怎么这个里面没有人讨论GLBSE关闭的事情呢? on: October 17, 2012, 02:45:51 PM
任何在欧美国家开的交易所,最后都要完蛋,因为不合法啊。这种东西最好开在某个东南亚国家。在中国如果低调一点也可以。我在glbse很早就有账户了,不过一直没投钱,因为我就一直觉的这个网站很不靠谱。
1737  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 02:06:54 PM
The fact that you identify easily verifiable facts as 'things that simply couldn't be true' should give you some insight into the fact that you've been marketed into liking Obama. Please think about it.
Then perhaps you can tell me which loopholes Romney could possibly close that would make his proposed tax cut revenue neutral.
I don't think Romney said closing loopholes is the only method to achieve his goal. Though he does have a record of closing loopholes in MA, he closed 22 state tax loopholes while he's governor of MA, as a result MA has a rather balanced budget while most other states were doing quite poorly in terms of budget. Romney is a business genius, I'd rather believe he has a few tricks up his sleeves.
That's a good way to not answer my question. Do we know of even one loophole Romney would close? Romney said part of his plan was closing loopholes, but the only loopholes that make any real difference are loopholes used by average middle class people such as the home mortgage interest deduction. Regardless of what tricks he has up his sleeves, either closing loopholes is a bogus promise or he should be able to give at least one example of a loophole he might want to close. It sounds like he's promising to do magic.

I have to make much the same point with his comment about cutting government funding of public broadcasting. I think he's right and that's a good example of government spending that could be cut, largely a subsidy to the rich. But if that's the best example he can come up with -- something that won't make any difference to the bottom line -- it suggests he has no better ideas and has no plan for things to actually cut that will make an actual difference.

LittleShop/JoelKatz

If you were a one-issue voter, debt-reduction was your single issue, and you had to vote for Obama or Romney, who would you vote for?

I'm asking because I'm legitimately curious. I was planning on not voting this election but decided that even though neither is a good candidate, their outlooks are sufficiently different that it *might* impact the debt situation.

Just curious to hear what your opinions are, and anyone else who feels they have a well-researched opinion on the matter.

As for me, I'm weighing a four year period where Obama did nothing to address the $1 trillion dollar deficits he inherited from bush in his entire four year term, vs. Romney clearly lying about the net effect of his 20% across the board tax cut and his litmus test of 'not adding to the deficit' as a freakishly low bar given our deficit spending rate these days.

On the plus side for Romney, he did balance the budget in Mass. but its not as impressive as it sounds. Massachusetts, like most US states, has a balanced budget law that requires the budget to balance every year.

Thoughts?
That's a really good question. Based on long-term party history, you have to favor the Republicans on this. But based on short-term party history, neither party has done much when they were in power. It used to be that you could at least figure that if Congress and the President are from opposite parties, compromise will hold down spending. But a lot of the recent compromise has been "you spend money where I want, and I'll let you spend money where you want". Honestly, I'd say it's a pretty close tie with maybe a slight edge to Romney because he might actually return to old-school Republican reductions in government spending. But if you want tax increases to be part of the solution over cutting government services, then you may prefer Obama, even if you don't think he'll cut the deficit quite as much.


Home mortgage interest deduction is not a loophole, please look up what a loophole is.

Here are some example loopholes Romney closed in MA while he's governor:
* Removed tax shelter status for fake "real estate lenders", (because banks were posing as real estate lenders to exploit this tax loophole)
* Computer software purchased in Massachusetts stores was subject to sales tax, but the same product downloaded from the Internet was not.
* Trusts were used as intermediaries in the sale of businesses to limit taxes on the transactions.
* Companies like WorldCom Inc., headquartered in low-tax states, charged subsidiaries located in MA royalty fees for business ideas coming from the home office. That moved money from MA to another low tax state, lowering taxes.
* Increased fee for use of Public land/facility, instead of subsidized by tax-payer.

Why he hasn't disclosed which loopholes he want to close on the Federal level? because that would be too easy for Obama to steal, Obama has already stolen his idea of "closing loopholes" shown by yesterday's debate. Of course Obama has no idea which loopholes to close, since Obama has ZERO record of closing them after having the job for 4 years. Romney has the experience and the record, and that's good enough for me to believe him.
1738  Economy / Speculation / Re: Downward trend imminent on: October 17, 2012, 01:18:13 PM
So when is this downtrend happening? I would really like to buy some cheap coins...

It's happening as we speak, 2 weeks ago we were at low $13, now we are at high $11. But as I said in the 3rd post, it'll take several months to play out.
1739  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: October 17, 2012, 12:38:49 PM
The fact that you identify easily verifiable facts as 'things that simply couldn't be true' should give you some insight into the fact that you've been marketed into liking Obama. Please think about it.
Then perhaps you can tell me which loopholes Romney could possibly close that would make his proposed tax cut revenue neutral.

I don't think Romney said closing loopholes is the only method to achieve his goal. Though he does have a record of closing loopholes in MA, he closed 22 state tax loopholes while he's governor of MA, as a result MA has a rather balanced budget while most other states were doing quite poorly in terms of budget. Romney is a business genius, I'd rather believe he has a few tricks up his sleeves.

He has said he will not raise taxes for anyone, even the high earners.  He has said what he will not cut in terms of the budget, leaving no room to balance the budget.  Getting rid of big bird is not going to be enough.  Obama has not outlined a plan that will do it either.  

A combination of taxing higher earners 39% , a 10% defense cut, stopping subsidy money to oil and farming interests as well as moderate cuts throughout the budget could do it.  Neither side has the balls to do it.  

Closing loopholes would have the equivalent effect of raising tax on the high income earners, without actually raising tax. The top 5% pays 60% of the income tax, as stated in the debate. It's quite brilliant actually, so brilliant that Obama actually stole Romney's idea in the debate, saying HE will close loopholes, which I thought was pretty shameless, Obama has had the job for 4 years, and closed 0 loopholes.
1740  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is it real? Physicists propose method to determine if universe is a simulation on: October 17, 2012, 03:04:57 AM
If the universe is simulated, we will never know, period. It's simply impossible for us to find out.
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