Should i sell my monero right now and then wait for it to be dump to buy and stack in again? What do you think guys im thinking that deep to sell or to stack another coin for the future.
If you think it will dump, do it. You may be right, you may not. You are posting in a relatively Monero-positive thread, so do you expect anyone here to advise you on this? Most people here are long term accumulators  |
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Dash is no competition to Monero. We know that.
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Disagree. It is competition, and strong competition at that. It is not as good, on paper, but nevertheless is winning in the marketplace, for now... I should clarify that I meant Dash is "no competition" in any of the markets or use cases where fungibility/privacy actually mattersThat is probably most/best represented as the darknet markets, which is nothing to sneeze at as so-called "System D" economies are abso-frikkin-lutely HUGE. But it's not only DMN's as we-here around this forum well know: FUNGIBILITY MATTERS to just NORMAL PEOPLE too, much more than almost everyone realizes!!! Anyway, the DNM operators who matter have already pretty clearly said they will not ever TOUCH Dash. IMHO this is probably the primary reason why the Dashers finally decided to stop trying to compete with Monero on fungibility/privacy and instead they decided to pivot to this "ease of use" and gov't compliance posture instead. As you said earlier it is Bitcoin they are after. Hubris, yes - but they just popped over $100 and reached about 3 quarters of a billion USD market cap. BTC dominance in market cap now at 78.7% - so (since BTC is not dropping) new money is coming in and it's going into alts. Tempted by 30% a DAY rises perhaps... Go figure. It is NOT sustainable. |
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Funny, over the years I've observed a pretty repeatable pattern with alt coins: 1) What always precedes an altcoin's parabolic rise is delusion and hubris 2) What always follows it is: - a mega crash, usually caused by a hack, serious flaw, unknown bug, insider theft, etc. - a community left in shock, disbelief - finally acceptance - and then an excruciatingly slow decent into eventual quiet irrelevance  Hmm. I think it's a constantly changing thing. The first alt bubble in 2013 really was a shit show. I'm not sure there's a single coin from back then that ever recovered. The current crop are a bit more resilient. It's getting to a point where if you just sit there you'll eventually get your money back. I think that's all down to Poloniex really rather than any 'fundamentals'. The appetite for bonkers gains from alts is bottomless. Bitcoin needs to progress beyond the level it's at now to differentiate itself enough. The ETF would've done it. I think that's the cause for the alt pump. Just noticed on Coinmarketcap that BTC dominance has slipped a little to 78.9%. Since alts are mostly bought with BTC, but BTC has not dropped, it implies more money is coming into the market, but going (perhaps via BTC) directly to alts. Dash and ETH seem to be doing best out of it, Monero keeping up, but Dash has gone near-parabolic up to nearly $100. Sooner or later this surely must come tumbling back down - it's doing 30% a day.... There will be tears. |
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Okay guys... I guess I need to weigh-in here on the whole Dash situation "big picture" given that the damn shitcoin seems to be about to break $100.
Un-frikkn'-believeable but... there it is.
So: am I butt-hurt? Yep. Freely admit it. Fact is that I did HODL 50 Dash from over a year ago until just recently (like last October or November I think) when I decided to dump it and 'consolidate' my crypto portfolio around only "what really mattered".
So, yep I've missed out of this pump even though I should not have, given that I WAS holding *some* Dash just as a "hedge" until very recently and stupidly I sold it off JUST BEFORE this run started.
Back in October-ish the 50 Dash I had was worth about 1 bitcoin and now, today, it'd be at 4 bitcoins.
So that's two doublings 1-to-2-to-4 that I missed out on. Opportunity cost of 3 BTC. That would've made it my third-best crypto investment of all time after Monero and MaidSafe overall returns and it would've beaten my overall bitcoin performance (one doubling) by twice.
So, yeah, it sucks and I feel stupid but can't win 'em all I guess... right? LOL. Still ButtHurt.
Anyhoo....
The $64,000 Big Question NOW is... what to do about this situation? Let's look at "reality" as best we can.
Dash is no competition to Monero. We know that.
The Monero/Dash fighting is really over IF we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story.
But taking a step backwards it looks to me like Dash isn't really competing on that point any more. They've ceded that point (mostly) and nowadays they are trying to SELL their shit premine scam coin as being JUST a little BETTER than BITCOIN. It has faster and cheaper transactions, apparently, even IF it does not have better fungibility or anonymity (which is simply also true for bitcoin).
I thought that this recent DashPump would never get to $100 but NOW here it is and it's come RIGHT ON THE HEELS of the latest, biggest, noisiest and messiest battle between BlockstreamCore and Bitcoin Unlimited (yesterday this node bug crashing shitstorm mess).
SO is it really POSSIBLE that this latest Bitcoin Disaster has driven more real money/value into... aaaaah... can't bear to say it... DASH REAL USE??
Or is ALL this really STILL just the most Epic Mother Of All-Time PUMPS by the Dashhole Insiders, trying to desperately make a Hail-Mary Pass and *buy* some expensive *legitimacy* for their scam coin at the last minute *before* the actual real-reality takes over again and consigns it to the dustbin of history? Dashholes may actually KNOW that most likely coinbase is going to adopt Monero soon, for example, and when WE hit $50-$100+ on that fact (soonTM) it may be the end of the road for them.
I'm willing to listen IF any Dashers around here wanna try and convince me using real FACTS/DATA that I've been wrong that it's a scam coin and pump-dump here lately, just on the theory that *maybe* Dash only needs to be a little better in some small way than BITCOIN (not Monero) to justify this crazy price rise.
Really trying hard here NOT to be "emotional" about this kind of investment decision but under the circumstances it's pretty hard LOL
I agree, they aren't trying to compete with Monero anymore and that being a 'little bit better than BTC' is what they are trying to be. It's not a bad strategy and they seem to have the marketing budget and style reasonably well thought out. And it cannot fail to be noticed, but it's mainly because of this rise in price. However, there is no point in being pissed off about it, as it's a BTC based coin, which we are not. It is technically inferior and essentially centralised and with a corrupt system which allows for exponential marketing spend growth at the same time as an incentive set up to ramp up the price while keeping supply artificially below demand. Its advocates are talking as though it is already spendable anywhere, but of course this is false. Its rise cannot continue exponentially, the law of gravity applies. For now they have come up with the best scam in crypto, though and they won't / can't stop. However, it must end in tears and the code of this coin will now be tested. In every sense. The higher it goes the further it will fall. If it does crash as hard as it should, then it will not be good for crypto. 'Bitcoin copy-coin loses hundreds of millions as hyped ponzi scheme collapses' will be a story the press will love. |
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When will XMR surpass Dash again? Last big pump cost more than 100000 BTC to get last ATH. But Dash has much less volume, their pump is crazier than us.
The buy walls have been pretty tame for a pump this big, but the limited supply is the reason. When Dash first started to pump, there was almost no coins being lent out, rates were crazy. Combine that with an orchestrated shill blitz... you get $100. Right now XMR has been ranging during the last 6 months. Support of .0093 resistance of about .0147 so .0120 being the average. So XMR is looking decent, but does it have legs? (I get the value, being truly fungible and the idea of it being privacy centric, instead of it being an option like Zcash). Mobile wallet, GUI out of beta, DNM vendors, Coinbase... all these things will bring value, but when? For most of you hardcore monero types, you probably don't care when, you know eventually you will be rewarded. But I am not one of you. I got in as a hedge last Friday during the ETF announcement. It worked out great so far, but now I am seeing BTC stabilize, and contemplating on switching back. The only problem... BTC is fucked right now. Both sides are making a play. One side wants BTC to be something, and the other wants another thing. BTC is risky as hell as an investment, and now this? I am inclined right now to stay in XMR. I think the Dash SPECULATORS are just that. Speculators, not a bunch of die hards like you guys. I see this as one of Moneroj greatest strengths. So when the music stops, they will FOMO XMR to .0225 is my guess. Why XMR? Greed. Everybody is already setting it up on Polo. "If Dash could do this with crappier tech, then watch what XMR does"! Or the speculators find Jesus and his name is Evan, and join the DashCult. Alts look like a huge bubble just now - ETH is at 2.6 billion USD market cap, Dash at 660 million and worth (ahem) nearly 90 USD. This is simply not sustainable, as it based on hopium. Our hope is that our 'Steady Eddie', XMR, will clean up by not being part of this irrational exuberance over a load of hot air with no proven use. The rise of Dash either gives it 'first mover advantage' or kills not just Dash, but perhaps stains the entire Alt market for some time if it collapses in a dashtastrophic way. Will ETH follow....? Think tech bubble way back when. I think it is frankly all BTC's fault as it has such glaring holes and problems, yet is growing so much anyway, the whole CC market is looking like a gold rush. I don't think even BTC's price level is as credible as most think - is it really 'definitely' on an infinite rise? BTC holders know they need to diversify and are doing so, looking for hedges - and XMR is a damn good one, it tends to move inversely to BTC. However in a black swan event with all CCs going toxic, there are no safe haven hedges. Apologies for apocalyptic thoughts, chaps, but I am concerned about a market I am invested in that looks like it might be overheating. I am glad XMR is not at Dash's level because of this. If it really crashes badly it may make headlines outside our world, some noobs will have bet their house on it. |
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It will come down.
It's a Dashaster waiting to happen.
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Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...
I never understood why you think it's oversold? What is your crystal ball saying? We get about 18k per day right? It looks to me like it's being held tighter lately. and the 1k of btc on the buy side that keeps popping up and disappearing seems to be a manipulator so maybe the 100k on the sell is as well? I take a look at weekly Stoch RSI charts from time to time and late Feb was as oversold as it's been since mid October last year. We peaked around Christmas (new dollar ATH set) while we went up along WITH Bitcoin (which was pretty amazing). We have been heading back to a more balanced position, but it's still not overbought yet from what I see. Just er... Goldilocks-ish. I have noticed this rise (while volume is at last healthy) has still seen far less BTC stacked on the buy side. So the BTC that's in Polo is not so much aimed at XMR. You're right to say coins for sale appear to be held tightly. I think people know XMR could spike so they are keeping an eye, but Dash and ETH are scooping up the Oxygen. I expected a spring bounce in late Feb, but of course we flatllined until a few days ago. It's a price reset that was due - but I still think there is room for more - depending on many outside factors.. BTC direction, scaling and forks, Dash eventual crash.... I do not have a crystal ball, but I do have one or two XMR and I keep my eyes well and truly open. Yup, so how does Stoch RSI charting work on VC as opposed to stocks? Short answer: In stocks TA is for much longer time frames. I am not how much any charting 'works' in VC - but I do think it helps. I look at candles and MA's on 2 or 4 hour mostly, Stoch RSI much longer term, and Bollinger bands are sometimes a help to see tightening up (er... and funny creature shapes developing). With Monero you have to also watch BTC and follow how inverse it is at any given time. As soon as it went over 1250 today i sold and re-bought more (I hate not hodling my target amount of XMR, but I trade to increase it). That wasn't charts, it was just 'shit, this will hit us' and not hard to spot coming with or without fancy lines. I still think the trend should be up a bit more - we aren't maxed out on long term Stoch RSI. But not to ATH in XMR/BTC I am think - unless BTC drops. In USD, it isn't too hard to see an ATH coming. I would advise rangedriver to not open his bet to everyone, personally - but what do I know? Just trying to learn to get a better 'edge', that is all - aren't we all? We are all guessing, but I do try to take a little TA on board - even if markets often ignore it, it can help |
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Normally, raising interest rates makes a currency stronger.
Yes, hence pulling money out of other asset classes like stocks and arguably bitcoin, all things being equal. I doubt there's much of an effect for bitcoin, if any, but if there was it would be in that direction. If people's savings can keep pace with inflation (which is also usually held back by high rates) by normal deposit account savings, then why risk it in shares? Stocks are more popular when money is cheap, but saving doesn't pay much as investors are desperate to get returns that low bank rates will not supply. Low rates encourage higher risk savings to look more appealing, so higher rates (ordinarily) should discourage riskier investments - such as (arguably) Bitcoin. This is of course classical economic theory - and often money markets, savers, investors and borrowers don't know enough about the theory to do what it says they should  I thought this was exactly my point! Falling stock prices would generally correlate with a fall in bitcoin, under this theory. In practice I doubt bitcoin traders are a large enough and homogenous enough group for that to hold true. I wasn't really disagreeing with you, just saying what interest rate rises would normally be expected to do to economic activity in different asset classes. I was 'elaborating' as Lauda asked.. To be honest Honey Badger has been looking such a good buy of late - stock market falls may bring more money into BTC - I mean, we just went over 1250 - so economic theory ain't much help. Let's face it, we cannot recall too many economists predicting the banking crash, can we - on the other hand Satoshi's white paper was timed just right for it. Bitcoin is perhaps more likely to behave as a commodity, more like gold. Gold (in theory) should go down as federal bonds etc pay more - so there is an opportunity cost to holding an asset that pays no interest. However the last four recorded Fed interest rate hikes have seen gold go up, not down. So theories are meaningless! I read that the Yuan and other currencies will crash against the dollar after the FED raises the rate. Wouldn't a crashing Yuan start the Chinese buying Bitcoin again? Although their exchanges froze withdrawals they are now trading in huge quantities on localbitcoins. The Chinese think of their Yuan in terms of USD (at least those with money do). So dollar up, means Yuan (relatively) is down. Having BTC in advance of this happening (or getting it fast enough after the news gets out) is good, buying BTC afterwards is not so good as it's more expensive. If they think the dollar will continue to rise - then it's positive for BTC, yes. If they think their savings are not portable in Yuan, but are in BTC, the same applies. Speaking as a Brit who just saw his currency wipe out 20% after the Brexit vote, I can tell you that my BTC being valued in USD was a rather comforting side affect - it was a 20% bonus in a lot of my savings! We are all connected, little moves here and there in markets sometimes have unforeseeable positive or negative consequences in other places. |
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Alt coins coming back down and bitcoin price increasing, what a surprise.
More like the other way around - BTC went up over 1250 first and the ones I was watching moved inversely. But you're right - all Alts are BTC dependent in some respect. Most are priced (effectively) in BTC. Whether BTC will go up further from here on in is what I am waiting to see. I really didn't expect to be over 1250 just two working days after the ETF rejection. BTC never ceases to surprise me. |
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Normally, raising interest rates makes a currency stronger.
Yes, hence pulling money out of other asset classes like stocks and arguably bitcoin, all things being equal. I doubt there's much of an effect for bitcoin, if any, but if there was it would be in that direction. If people's savings can keep pace with inflation (which is also usually held back by high rates) by normal deposit account savings, then why risk it in shares? Stocks are more popular when money is cheap, but saving doesn't pay much as investors are desperate to get returns that low bank rates will not supply. Low rates encourage higher risk savings to look more appealing, so higher rates (ordinarily) should discourage riskier investments - such as (arguably) Bitcoin. This is of course classical economic theory - and often money markets, savers, investors and borrowers don't know enough about the theory to do what it says they should I thought this was exactly my point! Falling stock prices would generally correlate with a fall in bitcoin, under this theory. In practice I doubt bitcoin traders are a large enough and homogenous enough group for that to hold true. I wasn't really disagreeing with you, just saying what interest rate rises would normally be expected to do to economic activity in different asset classes. I was 'elaborating' as Lauda asked.. To be honest Honey Badger has been looking such a good buy of late - stock market falls may bring more money into BTC - I mean, we just went over 1250 - so economic theory ain't much help. Let's face it, we cannot recall too many economists predicting the banking crash, can we - on the other hand Satoshi's white paper was timed just right for it. Bitcoin is perhaps more likely to behave as a commodity, more like gold. Gold (in theory) should go down as federal bonds etc pay more - so there is an opportunity cost to holding an asset that pays no interest. However the last four recorded Fed interest rate hikes have seen gold go up, not down. So theories are meaningless! |
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Normally, raising interest rates makes a currency stronger.
Yes, hence pulling money out of other asset classes like stocks and arguably bitcoin, all things being equal. I doubt there's much of an effect for bitcoin, if any, but if there was it would be in that direction. If people's savings can keep pace with inflation (which is also usually held back by high rates) by normal deposit account savings, then why risk it in shares? Stocks are more popular when money is cheap, but saving doesn't pay much as investors are desperate to get returns that low bank rates will not supply. Low rates encourage higher risk savings to look more appealing, so higher rates (ordinarily) should discourage riskier investments - such as (arguably) Bitcoin. This is of course classical economic theory - and often money markets, savers, investors and borrowers don't know enough about the theory to do what it says they should |
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To add:
It can also mean invested money pays higher rates and borrowers pay more. It is usually seen as an economic brake on a country if rates go up.
Raised rates incentivise saving rather than borrowing and spending is curtailed too (credit is not cheap).
Loosening interest rates, conversely acts as a spur to the economy.
In Trump's America - all of this may have a totally different outcome, of course.
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Normally, raising interest rates makes a currency stronger.
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I don't bet - but I think that is a generous offer.... at current levels you are looking at a near-doubling in price. EDIT: Plus, if you win the bet the loser will have the increase in price to pay you with, so you're offering a hedge based on reaching or not reaching ATH. |
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I will keep this for reference. You never know when it will be needed |
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But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  Wanna make a bet for a few BTC? I say XMR will hit ATH within the next 18 days. You can bet against. We can use a mutually trusted escrow if you like. Game? USD or BTC? |
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What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?
I don't know and think interest is something of a furphy (although given the crypto-sphere's insularity unsurprising). Such a figure is as dependent on BTC's "value" as it is on XMR's; if BTC lost 50% of its value against the USD and Monero's dollar value remained steady you could buy twice as many BTC. Would it matter to you? Would that be a reflection of XMR's strength or BTC's weakness? In terms of economic value it all gets reduced down to buying power does it not? I appreciate there are other considerations such as inflation that make these tensions more complex but let's appreciate what is happening rather than obsessing over other coins. At present Monero's buying power is (at time of writing) round about as high as its ever been. So, once more...woo hoo. Spot on, Nano. I keep a spreadsheet of everything I have in crypto and have for four years or so. What it tells me is how much I have in fiat to cash out - not bananas. My mortgage, that car or holiday are priced in fiat - so it makes sense. |
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Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...
I never understood why you think it's oversold? What is your crystal ball saying? We get about 18k per day right? It looks to me like it's being held tighter lately. and the 1k of btc on the buy side that keeps popping up and disappearing seems to be a manipulator so maybe the 100k on the sell is as well? I take a look at weekly Stoch RSI charts from time to time and late Feb was as oversold as it's been since mid October last year. We peaked around Christmas (new dollar ATH set) while we went up along WITH Bitcoin (which was pretty amazing). We have been heading back to a more balanced position, but it's still not overbought yet from what I see. Just er... Goldilocks-ish. I have noticed this rise (while volume is at last healthy) has still seen far less BTC stacked on the buy side. So the BTC that's in Polo is not so much aimed at XMR. You're right to say coins for sale appear to be held tightly. I think people know XMR could spike so they are keeping an eye, but Dash and ETH are scooping up the Oxygen. I expected a spring bounce in late Feb, but of course we flatllined until a few days ago. It's a price reset that was due - but I still think there is room for more - depending on many outside factors.. BTC direction, scaling and forks, Dash eventual crash.... I do not have a crystal ball, but I do have one or two XMR and I keep my eyes well and truly open. |
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Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...
Yep. Way. Dont even want to bring up the German Laundry Detergents froth and bubble currently in rinse cycle....If thats meant to be thee benchmark....pfff my god what could be possible.... But that's the beauty of it. Its like one of these counterweights on an aircraft carrier. Slowly building stored energy..we shall see After the grind of the last few weeks, it's looking way better - loving the volume. We shall see indeed... |
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Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...
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