[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

USD or BTC?

BTC

I don't bet - but I think that is a generous offer.... at current levels you are looking at a near-doubling in price.

EDIT: Plus, if you win the bet the loser will have the increase in price to pay you with, so you're offering a hedge based on reaching or not reaching ATH.   

[1713856507]

1713856507

[1713856507]

1713856507

[rangedriver]

Plus, if you win the bet the loser will have the increase in price to pay you with, so you're offering a hedge based on reaching or not reaching ATH.   

...not if the bet is 1000 XMR each, which is what I would propose.

[TrueCryptonaire]

But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

Wanna make a bet for a few BTC? I say XMR will hit ATH within the next 18 days. You can bet against.

We can use a mutually trusted escrow if you like.

Game?

In the binary betting I give the odds for new ATH in terms of bitcoins within 1 month or so 25 % and no ATH 75 %.
As there is 25 % chance (in my personal opinion) to lose the bet I chose not to bet on that.

Bear in mind, this is not Dark coin which is a wet dream of a speculator (which I was told by one of their community member - but the timing of that was wrong - anyway with correct timing I would not have believed in him/her).

Definitely when Dark coin drops significantly the hoarding of them is a no brainer because it will eventually be pumped back up. In case of Monero I am not so sure.... 

[Febo]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.


I would be curious with bets. in March or April we usually witnessed an annual Spring Monero pump. I have no ideas if this guys still have enough power for such actions as they had in 2015 and 2016.  Daily volumes increased a lot from that time.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well, by passing $18.40 (and breaking $19) we have now achieved the ATH price when measured against the USD.

I would suggest this metric is actually far more reliable than the BTC market since last Sept (the last generally regarded ATH) BTCs price was about 50% less against the USD than it is today.  Compared to BTC the USD has been relatively stable over the same period.

If BTC's price was the same today as back then, we'd be around 0.05BTC.

So....whoo hoo

How large portion of your coins you sold?

[TrueCryptonaire]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.

Monero started in 2014 too high in my opinion and that's the reason it dropped from 0.004 to 0.001 with the help of some F.U.D.

[Febo]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.

Monero started in 2014 too high in my opinion and that's the reason it dropped from 0.004 to 0.001 with the help of some F.U.D.

Lol, yes it was to high and some bought it way to expensive   But now we do have it. Some sadly dont have any.  What will they do now?

[TrueCryptonaire]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.

Monero started in 2014 too high in my opinion and that's the reason it dropped from 0.004 to 0.001 with the help of some F.U.D.

Lol, yes it was to high and some bought it way to expensive  But now we do have it. Some sadly dont have any.  What will they do now?

I made the mistake to buy too much for 0.004.

The other mistake I did last year was ignoring Etherium when it was cheap. The mistake of 2017 from me is probably ignoring Dark coin.

[Febo]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.

Monero started in 2014 too high in my opinion and that's the reason it dropped from 0.004 to 0.001 with the help of some F.U.D.

Lol, yes it was to high and some bought it way to expensive  But now we do have it. Some sadly dont have any.  What will they do now?

I made the mistake to buy too much for 0.004.

The other mistake I did last year was ignoring Etherium when it was cheap. The mistake of 2017 from me is probably ignoring Dark coin.

You have to much money so way to much troubles and worries. I would try to part from at least part of it. You would sleep way sweeter.

[rangedriver]

But I want to believe that you are still always right  
Begin COUNTDOWN

Bear in mind, I do kinda pull all these numbers out of my ass... so I wouldn't get too excited. 

[rangedriver]

As there is 25 % chance (in my personal opinion) to lose the bet I chose not to bet on that.

That's a shame. You could have made some easy money there.

Let me know if you change your mind.

[infofront]

What do you think about new ATH on a btc pair? Will we be able to set it in the spring? I think we can see 0.02 very soon but can we bit 0.0265 despite new btc price?

I doubt that it will achieve new ATH any time soon... The chances are Monero is heading towards long term apathy period same as in 2014... But I am glad if you guys prove me wrong here...  

I never looked at year 2014 as apathetic year for Monero.  Maybe last 3 months. But it was sort of expected price will decrease because of so much new Moneros being mined everyday.

As apathetic year I would call 2015. Price hit the bottom. And specially people that did not cautiously monitor what developers do, could even thought development stopped. January 1st 2016 of course this changed. 0.9.0 "Hydrogen Helix" hit Cryptospace like a tornado.

Monero started in 2014 too high in my opinion and that's the reason it dropped from 0.004 to 0.001 with the help of some F.U.D.

Lol, yes it was to high and some bought it way to expensive  But now we do have it. Some sadly dont have any.  What will they do now?

I made the mistake to buy too much for 0.004.

The other mistake I did last year was ignoring Etherium when it was cheap. The mistake of 2017 from me is probably ignoring Dark coin.

Hindsight is 20/20. I would've done a lot of things differently. 

[infofront]

But I want to believe that you are still always right  
Begin COUNTDOWN

Bear in mind, I do kinda pull all these numbers out of my ass... so I wouldn't get too excited. 

You must have a magical ass, sir. I recall you making some great calls.

[TrueCryptonaire]

But I want to believe that you are still always right  
Begin COUNTDOWN

Bear in mind, I do kinda pull all these numbers out of my ass... so I wouldn't get too excited. 

You must have a magical ass, sir. I recall you making some great calls.

If he is right I guess his ass is worth pure gold. 

[Hueristic]

Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...

I never understood why you think it's oversold? What is your crystal ball saying? We get about 18k per day right? It looks to me like it's being held tighter lately. and the 1k of btc on the buy side that keeps popping up and disappearing seems to be a manipulator so maybe the 100k on the sell is as well?

I take a look at weekly Stoch RSI charts from time to time and late Feb was as oversold as it's been since mid October last year.  We peaked around Christmas (new dollar ATH set) while we went up along WITH Bitcoin (which was pretty amazing).  We have been heading back to a more balanced position, but it's still not overbought yet from what I see. Just er... Goldilocks-ish.

I have noticed this rise (while volume is at last healthy) has still seen far less BTC stacked on the buy side.  So the BTC that's in Polo is not so much aimed at XMR. You're right to say coins for sale appear to be held tightly.

I think people know XMR could spike so they are keeping an eye, but Dash and ETH are scooping up the Oxygen.  I expected a spring bounce in late Feb, but of course we flatllined until a few days ago.   It's a price reset that was due - but I still think there is room for more - depending on many outside factors..  BTC direction, scaling and forks, Dash eventual crash....

I do not have a crystal ball, but I do have one or two XMR and I keep my eyes well and truly open.

Yup, so how does Stoch RSI charting work on VC as opposed to stocks?

[dchou]

That's a shame. You could have made some easy money there.

Let me know if you change your mind.

Is this bet for TC only? I'd take this bet.

[luigi1111]

That's a shame. You could have made some easy money there.

Let me know if you change your mind.

Is this bet for TC only? I'd take this bet.

I would also like to.

[kurious]

Happy with price, but it's still looking oversold...

I never understood why you think it's oversold? What is your crystal ball saying? We get about 18k per day right? It looks to me like it's being held tighter lately. and the 1k of btc on the buy side that keeps popping up and disappearing seems to be a manipulator so maybe the 100k on the sell is as well?

I take a look at weekly Stoch RSI charts from time to time and late Feb was as oversold as it's been since mid October last year.  We peaked around Christmas (new dollar ATH set) while we went up along WITH Bitcoin (which was pretty amazing).  We have been heading back to a more balanced position, but it's still not overbought yet from what I see. Just er... Goldilocks-ish.

I have noticed this rise (while volume is at last healthy) has still seen far less BTC stacked on the buy side.  So the BTC that's in Polo is not so much aimed at XMR. You're right to say coins for sale appear to be held tightly.

I think people know XMR could spike so they are keeping an eye, but Dash and ETH are scooping up the Oxygen.  I expected a spring bounce in late Feb, but of course we flatllined until a few days ago.   It's a price reset that was due - but I still think there is room for more - depending on many outside factors..  BTC direction, scaling and forks, Dash eventual crash....

I do not have a crystal ball, but I do have one or two XMR and I keep my eyes well and truly open.

Yup, so how does Stoch RSI charting work on VC as opposed to stocks?

Short answer: In stocks TA is for much longer time frames.

I am not how much any charting 'works' in VC - but I do think it helps.  I look at candles and MA's on 2 or 4 hour mostly, Stoch RSI much longer term, and Bollinger bands are sometimes a help to see tightening up (er... and funny creature shapes developing).
With Monero you have to also watch BTC and follow how inverse it is at any given time.  As soon as it went over 1250 today i sold and re-bought more (I hate not hodling my target amount of XMR, but I trade to increase it).

That wasn't charts, it was just 'shit, this will hit us' and not hard to spot coming with or without fancy lines.

I still think the trend should be up a bit more - we aren't maxed out on long term Stoch RSI. But not to ATH in XMR/BTC I am think - unless BTC drops. In USD, it isn't too hard to see an ATH coming.  I would advise rangedriver to not open his bet to everyone, personally - but what do I know?

Just trying to learn to get a better 'edge', that is all - aren't we all?

We are all guessing, but I do try to take a little TA on board - even if markets often ignore it, it can help

[TrueCryptonaire]

As there is 25 % chance (in my personal opinion) to lose the bet I chose not to bet on that.

That's a shame. You could have made some easy money there.

Let me know if you change your mind.

I refuse from the bet and that offers you a nice exit from others who might want to take advantage of your generous offer.
Instead you might be spending 1 btc better in buying something nice as a surprise to your wife/girl friend / boy friend / anyone significant to you.

[luigi1111]

That's a shame. You could have made some easy money there.

Let me know if you change your mind.

Is this bet for TC only? I'd take this bet.

I would also like to.

Confirmed only for TC.