I followed this old trucker guy on YouTube and he has a lot of knowledge of the trucking industry. He basically said that there was so many new truckers that started a year ago that he is not surprised many are suffering.

However he says it’s similar to a Bitcoin cycle. It basically cycles up and down. And most likely will keep repeating for a very long time.

Many started trucking just like many started with cryptos for the easy money, then the trend changed and many are out of the trucking business now.

I think we will most likely trade sideways for the next few months. Until March or April. Then we might break $20K. However this doesn’t account for any macro conditions.

If the fed goes crazy with hikes or if there is some collapse of some large bank then that all can quickly change. A lot depends on how the inflation numbers will look next month and beyond. This is why it’s hard to predict a good price.

https://www.coinglass.com/funding/BTC

Its back to 0.01%. It was actually the highest funding rate for the year pretty much. No idea why it was high for 2 funding rounds. You would think the open interest had a big change but,

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/usd/bybit/open-interest-chart/btcusd_oi/

It seems mostly flat. So I can only assume it was something to do the way they calculated the mark price, maybe used some API quote which stalled. Looks fixed now.

I looked into this and it seems Bybit is the only exchange with funding rates this high. All others are flat at 0.01. Looking at the open interest there is very little change. So no idea what to make of it.

Looks like maybe a glitch on how they calculate the mark price or just a low liquidity period where a mid size trader can cause the funding to change this might with a mid sized order.

I am pretty sure in 8 hours after this funding it will be back at 0.01 most likely.

Nothing has been happening during the holidays. Everything is trading sideways. The only coin I can see that is getting volatility is Solana due to what is happening with FTX.

Apparently as soon as he was free, sol started to tank. And then there was news of devs leaving. And it broke to a new low, it’s heavily shorted due to funding rate and getting squeezed. Everything else , not doing anything.

This seems very similar to the 3commas. Basically they also had withdraws off and people assumed it was safe. However the api got leaked and they basically used peoples funds to buy low cap coins such as YFIDAI and caused a 6000% gain. And later shorted it down with another account.

This service seems no different. Just because withdraws are locked doesn’t mean you can’t lose all your funds. Hopefully people learn from the 3Commas mess that happened in the past month.

When it comes to perpetual futures which are swaps they never settle. Those monthly and quarterly futures settle at a specific time when it expires.

Options are very similar however it’s possible for an option to settle earlier if it is called. Especially since the 14000 call is being bought as in the money.

So Bitcoin can rally to like $20K and a week before expiry the owner of that call can exercise the option and it would settle earlier. However this only happens if you sell or wrote the call option. Won’t happen if you just buy it. Same with puts.

If there is some massive credit event. Say some large bank like Credit Sussie goes bankrupt it can send shockwaves in the economy. Similar to the Lehman crash.

Then economy will be weak. People out of jobs. Fed will have to cut rates and most likely stimulus will be back again. And the entire cycle will keep repeating every few years. Might even get double digit inflation because of this.

Most countries that host these events know they are doing it for a huge loss. The country doesn’t really depend on any revenue generated from this. It’s already fairly well off.

This was pretty much discussed a month ago. And most people were surprised by it. However that is just the way these events are done. They are done at a loss.

You know what. I am not saying this will happen.

But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.

However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.

There is a guy on YouTube called Rich rebuilds who buys salvaged Tesla’s and tries fixing them up. He is a pretty funny guy however he says that Tesla can sell you a refurbished battery for a model 3 for $22K. That doesn’t include installation.

Now how much is a Tesla, especially 2017-2018 around $35K at inflated car prices. So imagine buying one at $35k and then having the battery go bad and costing almost $25K to get it going again.

Most will just go to the salvage yard. Not worth fixing them when battery is dead. Unless you get the car for free.

Some guy on the Chevy bolt forum said that it cost him $17K to replace the battery on his bolt back in 2018. Now the cost is slower to $19K according to repair pal.

Looking at MSRP values the 2018 bolt sold for $37.5K. Most likely for much less due to government incentives. So let’s say it sold for $35K.

Now a few years later, will you pay $20K for a new battery. Most likely the market value of a bolt is in the $20K range anyways. So the car becomes worthless when battery goes out.

Don’t know if you guys remember but Elon actually gave a heads up and you had an entire day to sell the top of tesla stock.

For those who don’t know he made a poll “should I sell Tesla stock to pay a huge tax bill and help us government”. And most people voted yes.

Stock holders were upset but when trading day came, the stock didn’t go down. Until Tuesday which started a huge sell off. But it fell slowly you had lots of time to get out.

So he hinted that the top was in.

Yes and they think that they can completely ban ICE in about 10 years. Maybe in an area where they had tons of nuclear plants but in California it will be a disaster.

Pretty much every year when there is a heat wave they got rolling black outs. So imagine how bad it will be when cars are completely banned which are gasoline powered.

I don’t think there are enough data points to suggest whether this is a reliable indicator or not. I honestly never look at even the death crosses on the daily because they are completely random. Half the time they work and other half they don’t. So no point in looking at them.

Better indicators are Fibonacci on the daily or basic support and resistance. Moving averages are never a reliable indicator since everybody uses a different input and hence never clear.

The reason why many of those small shops have closed is because people can’t compete with stores like Walmart.
They will basically undercut most stores and people will shop where it’s cheaper.

They do a survey in my area. Would you shop local and support local businesses? Most answered yes. However when asked “would you shop local but pay a little more” and most said no. Hence why businesses like these can’t compete with Walmart.

You will only run into scammers this way. Nobody who can actually trade for a profit will teach you their skill so you can compete with their profits.

All those tutors are scams. They teach you the basics but it’s actually very difficult to be profitable that way. Most traders just learn their own way if they are dedicated enough.

Yeah the issue with signals is that most of the time the person giving them isn’t actually doing any real trading. So they try and make good signals so they get interest but eventually it will blow up and their followers won’t follow them anymore.

It’s no different than those people who have the leadership boards on Binance and Bybit. They basically have a few lucky weeks, don’t use stops and then they go bust.

So it’s been a few weeks after and the weekly lows didn’t break yet. I am not saying it was the bottom but if it was and it was this simple then it’s pretty crazy.

If this pattern works out then I can assume that the Next top will be at a similar time. Basically same number of weeks from bottom to top. So if Bitcoin is at like $50K or $80K or $125K make sure you sell this time.

Yes a lot of people left the industry. Look how dead bitcointalk has gotten or look at the number of tweets for crypto or all the crypto Reddit’s. Most common places where people would go to talk about crypto are dead.

Same with stocks and all those yolo fomo meme stock option trading. Seems many lost all their money and quit. Usually this signals a bottom. All we need now is a fed pivot for confirmation.