brief spike to 700 and 3 months of flatness at 550
Sold, to the bear in the front row. "bear": Someone who believes of a possible scenario in which the price temporarily drops 8% before recovering, instead of having an immediate 1000% rally. - bitcoiner dictionary. No room for subtleties. Pick a team and stick with it for your entire life! |
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And I think the rally is first and foremost fueled by sellers' exhaustion. That puts a pretty strict upper limit on it how high we can go, but it probably also limits risk to the downside. Meandering around 500 for an extended amount of time is definitely something I can imagine, unless the momentum we get now pulls in enough new fiat to build more mom... well, just the old rally circlejerk. Not ruling it out either.
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brief spike to 700 and 3 months of flatness at 550
Sold, to the bear in the front row. |
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Perhaps a brief spike to 650 and then 3 months of flatness at 550
No chance. 700 by July. True fact. |
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You sure they are 100% decoupled?
See my post above, I kinda changed my mind and said these spike remind me of when the Finex Stamp wallet runs dry. I see. Thanks. So I'm back to guessing about the actual USD volume numbers. Why can't they just report it? Fucking in-transparent Bitcoin/fiat ecosystem :( (jup, you were right Blitz) |
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Serious question, for a second:
Does anybody know how much of Bitfinex' volume (on average) is routed to Bitstamp?
Bitstamp's API returns total volume (i.e. their own volume + orders from Bitfinex). Bitfinex' API doesn't distinguish between orders executed "internally" and "externally" either, to my knowledge.
The result is, we can't say for sure how much of the volume on stamp on finex is a duplicate... Can anyone who trades a lot on finex shine some light on this? Maybe you know how much, approximately, is routed to stamp, so we can at least guess how much stamp's volume has to be discounted.
Zero. They decoupled months ago. Thanks. Also to dreamspark, F-bernanke. So the situation changed drastically over the last year, huh? Last time I used finex, they were still routing 50+% to stamp, but that was a year ago or so I admit. Interesting development. In the past months, I tended to always discount USD volume in my calculations/speculations by, say, 25% because I assumed some of it was reported twice, but maybe that was a mistake. Coming back to this topic.... Quote from the finex thread: Wow, spike time! My stop-loss for a short got filled 40 USD (!) above the stop-price I set. Damn. Any suggestions as to how I can make it safer? Is there really nothing that can be done on your side to make the stops work better? I understand the mechanisms when a big market buy happens, so I guess there's little you can do about it...
Apparently also the Bitstamp USD reserve has been exhausted again. The spike would've been at least 20 lower if this hadn't happened. Which brings us back to the same issues we had in the November rally. Now that you changed the order book integration of Bitstamp we don't have any way of seeing when this happens, the order book just suddenly becomes thinner. Is there any way you could indicate to the users when this is about to happen? Please go back and consider possible solutions.
I understand that you have to minimize the risk of leaving funds on stamp, but when they go to zero, it's usually us traders who have to take the cost for it...
You sure they are 100% decoupled? |
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Thanks for adding another wall, dipshit.
walls are good, they get eaten in bull markets  I've been too optimistic before (2 days ago or so I expected 600 would fall within 12 hours), but that wall looks especially feeble to me. 2k coins to 600... if nibbled at, I see it vanish as quick as it appeared. |
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Serious question, for a second:
Does anybody know how much of Bitfinex' volume (on average) is routed to Bitstamp?
Bitstamp's API returns total volume (i.e. their own volume + orders from Bitfinex). Bitfinex' API doesn't distinguish between orders executed "internally" and "externally" either, to my knowledge.
The result is, we can't say for sure how much of the volume on stamp on finex is a duplicate... Can anyone who trades a lot on finex shine some light on this? Maybe you know how much, approximately, is routed to stamp, so we can at least guess how much stamp's volume has to be discounted.
Zero. They decoupled months ago. Thanks. Also to dreamspark, F-bernanke. So the situation changed drastically over the last year, huh? Last time I used finex, they were still routing 50+% to stamp, but that was a year ago or so I admit. Interesting development. In the past months, I tended to always discount USD volume in my calculations/speculations by, say, 25% because I assumed some of it was reported twice, but maybe that was a mistake. |
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Serious question, for a second:
Does anybody know how much of Bitfinex' volume (on average) is routed to Bitstamp?
Bitstamp's API returns total volume (i.e. their own volume + orders from Bitfinex). Bitfinex' API doesn't distinguish between orders executed "internally" and "externally" either, to my knowledge.
The result is, we can't say for sure how much of the volume on stamp on finex is a duplicate... Can anyone who trades a lot on finex shine some light on this? Maybe you know how much, approximately, is routed to stamp, so we can at least guess how much stamp's volume has to be discounted.
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Opa!  |
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I think it's a sad day when one of Argentina's preeminent number theorists turns out to be a drug trafficker  ARGENTINA's? Now THAT does it. Getting all the silos in ready-to-launch status...  Did you get your daily "readings of Freud to negrito countries" from Argentina yet?  Don't ask. |
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I think it's a sad day when one of Argentina's preeminent number theorists turns out to be a drug trafficker |
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What if, letīs say i sold some bags of heroin on SR.2.0, just to make sure that i have enough money to feed my kids and get some fresh brown powder for me, and i would cash that out through Bitstamp. Would i be considered as a criminal? Is it more likely that my funds would get frozen? Or is the risk just as high as for anyone else? I thought drugs are legal in Slovenia? Could Bitstamp still get problems if they helped me selling my "drugmoney"? Until now it worked pretty fine.
I am very confused Jorge. I thought you had said earlier that you're not planning to invest in Bitcoin? And now you're actually asking about presumably illegal activities and drugs. I'm disappointed :/ |
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yesterday i did my biggest market buy ever.
feeling lucky.
LOL. Market buying...... I mean, do it when you gotta, when the train is clearly taking off without you...but I pretty much never hit the market order button. To each his own I guess. Might be a matter of terminology. If I want to buy in (or sell) and I mean it, I set a limit order that is guaranteed to be filled in one go. I would, colloquially, refer to it as "market order", because I am effectively buying at whatever the market is offering me, and the limits are just there to protect me from some weird flukes of the order matching engine. |
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Fortunately for you, if these things bother you and you'd rather have a malleable money supply managed by unelected officials who can seize funds and reverse transactions at will: you are well served with the current monetary paradigm - be it Keynesian, monetarist or neocon - the differences are of cosmetic character, really. Those of us with the (obviously wrong!) view that a monetary system should be predictable and not prone to manipulation by individuals have been longing for the chance to try out something like that. It will quite obviously fail, because centralized systems run by experts are naturally superior to decentralized systems run by no one but some people just need to convince themselves on their own, deferring to the wise opinions of experts is not enough for them. And who knows - if by some freak accident such a monetary system turns out to be better than what we have now, you will benefit as well  My preferences are not important. The point is that a system that does not allow the forcible return of stolen property will not be acceptable to society, except for thieves and other criminals. In the end, it will be rejected even by the libertarians who now think that irreversibility is a good thing. The answer to that one is really quite simple: the raw transfer mechanism is irreversible, which is a byproduct of the 'no authority has complete control of the network' property. Should Bitcoin become the backbone of global financial transactions (or get near that state), it'll simply mean that a vast number of escrow services will be developed (some automatized, some with a human in the driver seat). It's not that Bitcoin is perfect, or even that irreversibility is always a good thing: it's a necessary consequence of an extremely efficient, distributed and owner-less (your term ) system that in principle can be unrivaled in its low transfer costs. Escrow will add to that, but at least for most (small) transactions, automatized, or at least extremely streamlined escrow should be enough, and probably won't raise the cost above the fees taken by credit card companies or banks. |
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The news that Dish Network is taking Bitcoin is getting some major press: ABC News, Wall Street Journal, Time, Washington Post. It is always great to get press like this and tends to cause more people to look into Bitcoin.  You know what that means. Good news = dump. Late last year, it could have been announced on reddit that some ma and pa cupcake store had decided to accept bitcoin and it would instantly rocket the price up $50. Now we have Dish Network -- which will be the largest single company to accept it -- and zero reaction. So it seems we've been a bit premature to assume that we've broken the bear market with last week's breakout. I agree with others that we're going to "consolidate" a bit more before going up again next month. Agreed. But maybe more people should have reminded themselves right from the start of the rally that 'leaving the bear market behind' doesn't automatically entail 'rocket to DA MOON'. I'm mid term pretty bullish (and I'm not even completely ruling out that we can break through 600 now-ish), but going up to new heights in a straight line was never an option, and I'm not 100% sure if the bulls that were cheering all through last week really understood this. (maybe they did, and were just inebriated by the first decent swing up in a while...) |
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Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now.
Your pink line, crashes right through the trend line which was tested last week around $440, met at the $340 bottom, met again in the Oct Silk Road Crash, and trended along in Jan 2013. If your pink line comes to pass, I would need to look at only shorting Bitcoin as a long term uptrend would be confirmed as finished, which would of course mean that we would be in a downtrend. Not by my analysis. I have argued strenuously in here that I see strong evidence of (natural) buying support in the mid 400s. You're free to reject that conclusion obviously, but by my interpretation, pink line would just be 'ever so weakly upwards leaning consolidation'. Basically, broken trendline doesn't mean much to me if there's a stronger factor in the back of my mind. Short term, it would be bearish, sure: we'd go below the 23% fib 1200-340, which means you'll hear the bulls cry again. Could be however that breaking through it without closing under it is the confirmation we need that we're out of the larger downtrend for good. EDIT: and that particular trendline, the one that goes through the SR crash, is not a favorite of mine anyway. SR is a borderline outlier, so I weigh it less to begin with, it's far far in the past, with zero point between then and now even getting close to it, and it's angle is way too steep to really be a realistic line of support. the trendline that formed the triangle I looked at (until we broke out 9 days ago) was simply the slightly rising support through ~400. |
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Here's the best guess I have about our situation: We're trading inside the following upwards channel for now:  We could go straight up from here, breaking out of the channel (yellow line. not that likely anymore, in my opinion), we could test the mid line and find support (quite possible), we could test the lower boundary and find support (less likely, but possible), or we could break through the lower boundary (not likely right now). (EDIT: none of the lines defining that channel are strongly motivated, but I take the fact that they form a (rough) parallel channel as a bit of evidence in favor of them. Point being, actual support and resistance might be more closely located around fib levels and running averages in the vicinity of those lines than around the exact lines marking the channel itself.) Everything but the blue line is pretty bullish (except for a bit of swinging around). Everything that comes after this channel requires a level of predictive power I personally can't find motivation for right now. |
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Welcome back. Hope you didn't miss the train up... it was a pretty sweet ride (for a while).
Stop loss at $460. Hope shroomskit doesn't see it. He lives on bear tears, whether they actually cried or not. |
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