Nevertheless, daily RSI is still overbought on both exchanges, although this doesn't necessarily have to signify a very huge drop I realized, as during 2013 it also got into overbought territory once before the bubble, and this was only followed by a correction of $130-115 (as well as a longer period of consolidation) before resuming the rise (disregarding the SR flashcrash).
As a general rule (and I say that as someone who's also still learning pretty much the basics), seeing an overbought/oversold condition and making a decision (mainly) based on that is not a good idea. Example: daily RSI was overbought on October 23rd, November 9th and November 19th. Only on the last date, I'd argue, would it have been profitable (after slippage and fees) to sell and re-buy (fast!), because the drop in all other cases was barely noticeable. In either case, after a possible sell you better would have went in immediately, because price still had a long way to go until the inflection point peak of the bubble. But taken together, the 3 RSI overbought conditions formed a nice rising sequence, confirming the uptrend until late November. November 30th and December 4th saw rising (or level) price highs, but declining RSI highs, i.e. a regular bearish divergence. So RSI analysis was after all capable of indicating that a reversal was overdue, but only taking all the RSI peaks together. So that's how I try to read oscillators like RSI: overbought/oversold conditions are at first just a "warning" signal that you need to look at the context around those peaks. But the actual conclusion what the indicator tells you is a bit more complicated than concluding that we're going down or up (substantially) because of the overbough/sold condition. |
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bumping to bring the party back to everyones mind... it's looking not too unlikely my wish it would be in summer will be fulfilled.
the last 5-6 months were kaind of hard for the btc 1k believers. it looks, though, the idea is not not dead - BITCOIN WILL RISE AGAIN... the party WILL happen. summer 2014 ? letīs see..  Much as I'd like to see it, we didn't just want to /hit/ 1k, we wanted to stay there for a while this time, right?  So, I'm not sold on summer this year tbh, but even if it takes a bit longer, at least I'm getting the impression we're going in the right direction from now. btc daily average on stamp has to stay 30 days above $ 1000 in a row, before the party is officially triggered & announced with date/location/dress code, etc. summer is not really that probable... +1 that's what I remembered. Still, even if it takes a bit longer, it's going to be awesome |
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Jorge, dont you have a job?
And, by the way, last week a former student of mine came to ask me about bitcoin. Someone was trying to get him into a GPU-based mining business. I think I am doing my job by gawking here. Agreed. You're our mascot bear... you being around brings us luck, and will propel us to a new ATH! Btw, if/when this party comes to fruition, and somehow your ticket would be paid for (only xbt accepted, hehe), would you consider joining? You could think of it as one of those field trips anthropologists go on :D |
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bumping to bring the party back to everyones mind... it's looking not too unlikely my wish it would be in summer will be fulfilled.
the last 5-6 months were kaind of hard for the btc 1k believers. it looks, though, the idea is not not dead - BITCOIN WILL RISE AGAIN... the party WILL happen. summer 2014 ? letīs see.. Much as I'd like to see it, we didn't just want to /hit/ 1k, we wanted to stay there for a while this time, right? So, I'm not sold on summer this year tbh, but even if it takes a bit longer, at least I'm getting the impression we're going in the right direction from now. |
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As most always, we are in agreement.
Although we are entering the zone where I am watching for weakness like a hawk. Finex is leveraged at close to 19 million, and the rates have skyrocketed, meaning, in my opinion, that fiat is getting tapped out there.
How much is sitting in Houbi on the sidelines? How much can secretly get into that exchange. How much is sitting in Stamp and Finex, untouched? These would be great inside information. :)
Can we expect new fiat this week? I am a little skeptical, but hell we are in a full on bull run, so maybe I shouldn't be.
Yes, I'm sure I know the feeling... but I realized also that, right now, I can't pick up with certainty whether we're done yet with this rally, so the best I can do is set (mentally) a stop sell that makes sense to me, and wait whether it comes to that, i.e. while I prefer to go "predictive momentum" usually, this time, I'll have to go "full momentum"... cue: never go full momentum.jpg :P |
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Edit 2: Started on Huobi AGAIN. This is all coming from China. Every single time almost. Worrying?
Not really. The entire rally (from $450) started, within <15 min of each other, on stamp and huobi simultaneously, with them taking turns in getting new (relative, of course) volume highs after the breakout. I take that as a reasonably organic start. What happened afterwards is another matter, but I'm not going to let the old adage that we need fresh fiat guide my trading mechanically. I'd suggest taking profits if and when it becomes apparent that the current rally ran out of steam, not earlier, unless you know with some certainty ahead of time the inflection point peak. But as always: different trading styles, different recommended actions.   |
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Hurray! New ATH at Huobi!  |
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Please see edit above. I opted out of the bet. Again, I apologize to Mmitech.
lets do it this way, a word bet, If the price wont touch touch $100 I will quit posting on this forum  Wait, what? Why would you do that? I appreciate your posts, why would you stop posting just because a market prediction you made didn't come true? That's... childish. |
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NICE. I SEE ALTCOINS BEING DISCUSSED HERE, HOW CUTE.What about: Let's continue to speculate about the Bitcoin price movement and where it shall end. And keep the alt's somewhere else. Holding that $570 nice and steady. Not sure of tommorow will change the whole situation, or in a few hours when the Chinese wake up and think: WHOLY MOLY Y U SO HAI. Disagreed. I'm not even invested in altcoins right now, but I like to be updated on the most important developments, as long as the main focus in here (this thread, and the forum in general) is on BTC. And that's still very much the case, so no problem in my opinion to have the occasional discussion about interesting alts. |
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If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?
What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?
No, not really. Short recap, maybe: I wrote a long post about the bearish triangle variants on April 25th, see here. That one guided me as far as the time frame was concerned -- convergence scenario #1 was predicted for late May at the latest, and the actual breakout was May 20, so it was pretty accurate. At the time of that post, I was still rather bearish, expecting we'd probably see a breakout to the downside. Maybe that's what you have in mind when you say "earlier than I planned"? On May 16th I posted about a new observation that, based on MFI (a money flow oscillator), it looked like we had finally found sufficient buying support at the given price level. See the post here. From that point on I was, as I wrote, "cautiously bullish". By May 20, MFI had continued to develop exactly as I hoped it would, so I didn't hesitate much when the breakout happened. I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet). |
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True, trading is not for (most) women. It's not for most guys either. Guys on average tend to like risk and gambling a lot more, but that doesn't mean they are actually any good at it. Also, people who argue guys aren't emotional haven't seen the average sports fan.
Most people who are good at trading get so from experience, not from inborn talent.
+3.5 billion (the approx. no. of women on earth at the moment) and +1.75 billion (for the reasonable half of men on earth :P) |
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Comment on the part where he makes a compelling argument why, all speculative/regulatory/technical issues aside, having the possibility for the first time in human history to work with such a thing as a distributed, tamper proof, public ledger, is kinda a big deal :)
I am sure you wanted to add "without a specific controlling authority". For those three qualities you listed, one does not need the complexity and expense of the bitcoin protocol. (Is that what Ripple is/was about?) With "ownerless" thrown in, it is certainly an exciting concept. Let's see whether it (a) can remain ownerless and (b) widely accessible without advanced hacker tricks. Those are two of the things that I am very skeptical about. By some accounts, paranoid maybe, Brock Pierce may be planning to "own" bitcoin, as he practically owned the real-money market for virtual game money with his previous company (IGE). AFAIK, Bitcoin is now efectively run by a few industrial miners (not sure that is what Satoshi had in mind), and one of them (KnC) seems to have close ties to him. In any case, the formation of a mining cartel or even a monopoly seems to be a non-negligible risk. I don't know of any country that has banned bitcoin outright (er, what did Russia and India do, exactly?), but China and several others have banned its use in commerce and finance, and severely restricted its speculative trade. Even the US, that otherwise seems to be bitcoin-friendly, has put many restrictions for its use in their own soil. (A telegraphic tinfoil-hat interpretation of the US stance could be: the CIA wanted it, the NSA designed it, the FBI loved it, the IRS promptly taxed it, and the SEC said 'OK, fine, as long as American citizens are not induced to invest in it'. ;)) Acceptable answer :) Pessimistic, but at least it seems you understand why some of us might get excited about this whole thing, other than because of the the speculative value. BTW, the "ownerless" was supposed to be included in the "distributed" aspect, which I interpret rather widely. |
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When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?
I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep :P), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would. |
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What is CCMF?
I think Goat was the one who coined the expression, "choo choo motherfucker" last autumn after a number of people posted train pictures in response to a picture of a man with a suitcase chasing a train he had missed. I might have been first to shorten it to ccmf, and there was a thread about finding a sfw alternate interpretation. "Choo Choo Mo Fo" was suggested. Much, much older... Google finds hits dating back to 2009:  |
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The single biggest flaw I can see in your model, slipperyslope, is the final valuation of $1M per coin, a constant that is barely motivated, and could well be off by one or two orders of magnitude (EDIT in either direction :D)
Even setting the final valuation as a moving target (say, percentage of global GDP or money supply) is problematic because of the same problem again: estimating a far away final state based on very little information.
The best way I could see would be to let the final valuation be a variable, and update it continuously by setting it to the output of another model that attempts to find the best possible estimate for which share of GDP/money supply will be distributed, at equilibrium, over 21M coins (minus lost coins, plus additional coins*probability that the protocol is changed to allow mining beyond 21M).
In any case, big kudos for the (uncommon in here) rigor of your approach.
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Hey prof, I know you got your own thing going on, but I think that if you wanted to be serious about investigating this bitcoin thing then you should at least try it out. You could simply make a public address and ask for donations (I'm sure you'd probably get quite a few)
by having a public address, everyone who donates to your "research project" would be able to see exactly what you decide to spend the bitcoin on. (As long as you spend the bitcoin donations on other public addresses.)
Dear @shmadz, thanks for the offer and the suggestion, but I will rather pass for now. All the best. Okay, so ignore the part where he suggests you get a public address. Comment on the part where he makes a compelling argument why, all speculative/regulatory/technical issues aside, having the possibility for the first time in human history to work with such a thing as a distributed, tamper proof, public ledger, is kinda a big deal :) |
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Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.
I admit (as I did in the past) that I know very little about EW, and have even less confidence applying it correctly. So I can't directly say if I think you're right or not. I will however point out that I'm under the impression that EW analysis, even more than other TA, is subject to extreme variance in results among those who practice it. With triangles, for example, the discussion was largely which extrema the resistance and support lines should go through exactly, or whether to use log or linear. With EW analysis, right now there seem to be those who imprint a bullish count on the charts, seeing us go a long way up (chessnut), those who see an extremely bearish count (DanV), and some in the middle, or who offer more than one possible count (waveaddict). My point? I'm willing to believe EW is useful to those who know how to use it properly, but I'm not one of those people. So, in the absence of being able to look at the current situation through EW glasses, I will look at the (more tangible) signals that are accessible to me. And they look pretty good at the moment, both in the sense that I don't pick up an end to the current rally yet (if I had to guess, I'd say SMA200 could be the resistance that breaks its back), and that I see several signs that we did indeed find the bottom of the 2013/14 bear market at $340, and found buying support in the mid-$400s. |
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Above $534. First Fibonacci retracement level of entire downtrend broken.Good news: we managed to decisively get above $534, the first (23.6%) retracement when looking at the entire downtrend so far, from ~1200 to ~340. Note 1: I'm going to assume we close above, on daily. Failure to do so would be, hm, not so great. Note 2: doesn't mean we're out of the danger zone entirely, in my opinion -- volume is still too low to say with certainty that we're going to see a sustained rally already. But it is what it is: a very positive signal. (2nd chart for comparison: what happened when we made it above 23% last year) 2014, Bitstamp 2013, Mtgox
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Well it aint half nice to wake up to movements like this again. $60 movements over night have me dreaming of November again. Anyone shorting now needs their head looking at, big sunday movements have normally been followed by big monday movements as well. A bank holiday doesn't help and means even more will probably be hitting exchanges Tuesday.
The life of a perma bear must be so shitty.
They will be still saying 'it needs to hit [a higher price than what it is at the moment] for it to truly be a breakout' Or they would point out, as I do now, that every sharp move up is inevitably followed by a sharp move down at some point, especially after a pretty devastating bear market which made a lot of investors bearish enough to just wait for a point to get out of the market at an opportune point. But, yeah, we're not there yet. There's still steam left in this move. |
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Sooo... anyone care to explain to a guy who just woke up what happened?
almost 2k volume/15 min on stamp, 2 hours ago? 1 big buy, or several smaller ones?
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