Something, something, something, technical analysis

[MatTheCat]

grade A HODLER you. Admit it, segeln, you are still underwater on Bitcoin. .

yes I am still underwater. But as hodler this is not a Problem
Bought in at about 750 $
your gentlemanlike idoms/words are very impressive
But not my style

Strange that you admit it that.....

......but.....

If you are overall underwater, and despite me having had an utterly horrendous trade recently, I am still overall well in profit from my Bitcoin escapades.

Who are you to say that I am a noob trader?

I mean, I am a noob trader, but surely that is still a lot better a trader than what you are.

I have made money. You have lost money.

Edit: I fail for wasting mental energies on such a self-professed halfwit when I have better things to focus my efforts on (i.e. to buy or not to buy).

[segeln]

I have made money. You have lost money.

yeah, you are the  Warren Buffet of bitcoin

[ElectricMucus]

I have made money. You have lost money.

yeah, you are the  Warren Buffet of bitcoin

actually Mark Karples is the Warren Buffet of Buttcoin.

[oda.krell]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

I admit (as I did in the past) that I know very little about EW, and have even less confidence applying it correctly. So I can't directly say if I think you're right or not.

I will however point out that I'm under the impression that EW analysis, even more than other TA, is subject to extreme variance in results among those who practice it. With triangles, for example, the discussion was largely which extrema the resistance and support lines should go through exactly, or whether to use log or linear. With EW analysis, right now there seem to be those who imprint a bullish count on the charts, seeing us go a long way up (chessnut), those who see an extremely bearish count (DanV), and some in the middle, or who offer more than one possible count (waveaddict).

My point? I'm willing to believe EW is useful to those who know how to use it properly, but I'm not one of those people. So, in the absence of being able to look at the current situation through EW glasses, I will look at the (more tangible) signals that are accessible to me. And they look pretty good at the moment, both in the sense that I don't pick up an end to the current rally yet (if I had to guess, I'd say SMA200 could be the resistance that breaks its back), and that I see several signs that we did indeed find the bottom of the 2013/14 bear market at $340, and found buying support in the mid-$400s.

[MatTheCat]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

I admit (as I did in the past) that I know very little about EW, and have even less confidence applying it correctly. So I can't directly say if I think you're right or not.

I will however point out that I'm under the impression that EW analysis, even more than other TA, is subject to extreme variance in results among those who practice it. With triangles, for example, the discussion was largely which extrema the resistance and support lines should go through exactly, or whether to use log or linear. With EW analysis, right now there seem to be those who imprint a bullish count on the charts, seeing us go a long way up (chessnut), those who see an extremely bearish count (DanV), and some in the middle, or who offer more than one possible count (waveaddict).

My point? I'm willing to believe EW is useful to those who know how to use it properly, but I'm not one of those people. So, in the absence of being able to look at the current situation through EW glasses, I will look at the (more tangible) signals that are accessible to me. And they look pretty good at the moment, both in the sense that I don't pick up an end to the current rally yet (if I had to guess, I'd say SMA200 could be the resistance that breaks its back), and that I see several signs that we did indeed find the bottom of the 2013/14 bear market at $340, and found buying support in the mid-$400s.

I am a believer in EW in that it provides good cues for potential buy points and sell points whichever way the market goes and whether your counts are bearish or bullish. Indeed, I have both a bull count and a bear count on the go. I caught my first buy point at $460, but bottled out at $520. Again using EW principles, my next buy point was to be where price action breached the long term downtrend. This turned out to be $540, as I went to my bed, Bitcoin was creeping around up to $530, but there was nothing convincing me at that point to take a position.

When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Charts show most overbought since January, at the peak of wave B. For now this looks like a bull trap to me.

I admit (as I did in the past) that I know very little about EW, and have even less confidence applying it correctly. So I can't directly say if I think you're right or not.

I will however point out that I'm under the impression that EW analysis, even more than other TA, is subject to extreme variance in results among those who practice it. With triangles, for example, the discussion was largely which extrema the resistance and support lines should go through exactly, or whether to use log or linear. With EW analysis, right now there seem to be those who imprint a bullish count on the charts, seeing us go a long way up (chessnut), those who see an extremely bearish count (DanV), and some in the middle, or who offer more than one possible count (waveaddict).

My point? I'm willing to believe EW is useful to those who know how to use it properly, but I'm not one of those people. So, in the absence of being able to look at the current situation through EW glasses, I will look at the (more tangible) signals that are accessible to me. And they look pretty good at the moment, both in the sense that I don't pick up an end to the current rally yet (if I had to guess, I'd say SMA200 could be the resistance that breaks its back), and that I see several signs that we did indeed find the bottom of the 2013/14 bear market at $340, and found buying support in the mid-$400s.

That is one inherent problem with EW... 10 people will likely come up with 10 different but completely valid counts. Until they are invalidated, you don't know which is right! At any given time, I have 4+ counts going in my charts. Some are bullish and some are bearish. All have fibo and a special set of indicators I use just for counting. That way you have solid invalidation points to eliminate counts from the group.
I made a comment in the cryptowaves thread that you must confirm your counts with indicators. Otherwise, you let your own biases form your counts. Counting waves is just a way to see what is possible next. It's not intended to be a single trading system.

That all said, the rise from $339 to $550 does not look impulsive to me from an EW standpoint. This leads me to believe that this is a bull trap, and we are in the C-wave right now.  

[MatTheCat]

That all said, the rise from $339 to $550 does not look impulsive to me from an EW standpoint. This leads me to believe that this is a bull trap, and we are in the C-wave right now.  

Question is, how far up will the corrective Wave (c) go, before the final leg Wave [C] of the primary Wave 4 begins?

Also would there be an argument that

$340 - $547 - impulse Wave 1

$547 - $440 - corrective Wave 2 (Fib 67%)

$440 - $586  and counting (or perhaps not) impulse Wave 3.

If we are in a Wave 3, then we could have a long way to go from here. Although I do admit, the length and angle of the rallies do indeed suggest correction market psychology other than impulse market psychology.

[oda.krell]

When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?

I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep :P), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would.

[RyNinDaCleM]

That all said, the rise from $339 to $550 does not look impulsive to me from an EW standpoint. This leads me to believe that this is a bull trap, and we are in the C-wave right now.  

Question is, how far up will the corrective Wave (c) go, before the final leg Wave [C] of the primary Wave 4 begins?

Also would there be an argument that

$340 - $547 - impulse Wave 1

$547 - $440 - corrective Wave 2 (Fib 67%)

$440 - $586  and counting (or perhaps not) impulse Wave 3.

If we are in a Wave 3, then we could have a long way to go from here. Although I do admit, the length and angle of the rallies do indeed suggest correction market psychology other than impulse market psychology.

That wave 1 is what I'm talking about. It appears more to be a 3 wave structure than a 5 waver. To force a 5 wave count to it, leaves the 4 very disproportionate to the 2. While it is possible, I guess, it isn't my first count because of the this. As a C of (B), it could really stop anywhere, unfortunately. (B) can even make new ATH's. If it's a 3 of V (or iii of 1 of V..) then it has more limits.

My original target for a large B wave was this;


The lower end is a minimum (61.8% of the 'a' from $339-547) that C had to travel to be considered complete (ie. ~$550). The upper end is the 61.8% fibo retrace of the whole bear market thus far (~$850).

[MatTheCat]

That wave 1 is what I'm talking about. It appears more to be a 3 wave structure than a 5 waver. To force a 5 wave count to it, leaves the 4 very disproportionate to the 2. While it is possible, I guess, it isn't my first count because of the this. As a C of (B), it could really stop anywhere, unfortunately. (B) can even make new ATH's. If it's a 3 of V (or iii of 1 of V..) then it has more limits.

My original target for a large B wave was this;


The lower end is a minimum (61.8% of the 'a' from $339-547) that C had to travel to be considered complete (ie. ~$550). The upper end is the 61.8% fibo retrace of the whole bear market thus far (~$850).

This chart looks very similar (identical) to one of the EW possibilities that I have got on the go. But since I missed my last buy-in trigger due to being 'off duty', I am now in this quandary whether to buy in at a point where we have come very high in a short space of time without any meaningful correction. There is clearly some kind of consolidation phase underway but will be break up or correct back down to $50+?

I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep ), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would.

We are right on a very prominent resistance point, and consolidating. I have been in ($565) and out ($572) of the market during this consolidation phase. I can't make head nor tails of it but since we have come so far (over $100) in such a short space of time without anything more than a 20% correction after any leg up, the probability of 'thee correction' occurring becomes greater and greater. Instead of faffing around with a big pile of short term indicators that amount to nothing more than random noise at the end of the day, If I am to re-enter long, then I will have to see the $585 being taken out at volume. Annoying, considering I did have the correct plan of action in place had I been around to act on it. If I am in bed again when what ever entity is driving this rally starts ramping again, then so be it.

[T.Stuart]

When I got out my bed, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. We are now at $565. Although I am yet to be convinced that the bear trend has reversed, I feel that now that the Dec 2013 trendline has been breached, that a Wave (B) of a grander Wave [4] could take Bitcoin right up to $700s before correcting. However, we have already had a very vertical leg up and must surely now be in for some kind of meaningful correction (mind you, I was thinking this at $547). What would be your own short term view on Bitcoin with regards to timing a new market entry point?

I wish I had one. If I would have been caught with my pants down (i.e. asleep ), I'd probably be buying in even now, but be on the watch for reversals at the well known resistances, or after a simple failure to sustain momentum. The risk that we break through, say 630 anyway, and you'll be forced to buy in at that level would be too big for me. I /do/ think there's a good chance we'll see 550, or even 530 again in the next days, even if we sustain momentum overall, but bet on it? I don't think I would.

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

[MatTheCat]

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

If you are talking to me:

I had buy-ins lined up at $360-$400. As Bitcoin stagnated in the $430-$450 range, I was waiting for convincing confirmation of breach of either of the long term support or resistance trendlines which were converging. In the end, it was the resistance line which was convincingly breached, and I went long at $460. Suspecting a pull-back, I sold at $520. Realising that I had probably made a mistake, was waiting on breach of final long term resistance line before deciding upon whether to re-enter market. Had I been awake at 4am UK time, I would have re-entered market at $540, but I was asleep. When I awoke, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. I have since 'dabbled' with a long position which I have since closed as I have decided that taking a position at the moment would only be gambling. If Bitcoin can take out the $586 high, again, on convincing volume, then I may take another long, but the higher up this vertical break-out we get, the greater the probability of a brutal correction there will be. I wish hadn't closed my $460 long position, but too many times in the past, have I failed to take profits and then had the market turn on me, sometimes viciously.

[m3g4tr0n]

It's what I believe is going to happen, so I went full fiat at 512 with the hope of buying back around 375-400 before mid may. Wish me luck

I'm sure I don't need to tell you this, but I hope you also set a stop-loss to buy back in. Decide, ahead of time, at which price you'll have to consider your previous assumptions to be proven wrong by the market, and then stick to it.

1d Ichimoku cloud comes to mind, or daily SMA200. But, whatever you pick, don't go back on your decision later unless you have extremely good reasons to do so.

If it breaks 550 on stamp...

And here we are.

[T.Stuart]

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

If you are talking to me:

I had buy-ins lined up at $360-$400. As Bitcoin stagnated in the $430-$450 range, I was waiting for convincing confirmation of breach of either of the long term support or resistance trendlines which were converging. In the end, it was the resistance line which was convincingly breached, and I went long at $460. Suspecting a pull-back, I sold at $520. Realising that I had probably made a mistake, was waiting on breach of final long term resistance line before deciding upon whether to re-enter market. Had I been awake at 4am UK time, I would have re-entered market at $540, but I was asleep. When I awoke, Bitcoin was topping out at $586. I have since 'dabbled' with a long position which I have since closed as I have decided that taking a position at the moment would only be gambling. If Bitcoin can take out the $586 high, again, on convincing volume, then I may take another long, but the higher up this vertical break-out we get, the greater the probability of a brutal correction there will be. I wish hadn't closed my $460 long position, but too many times in the past, have I failed to take profits and then had the market turn on me, sometimes viciously.

Thanks Mat! What about you, Oda Krell?

[zimmah]

Short term prediction:

it will test and bounce $630 tomorrow
it will break $630 somewhere the 28th or 29th, or in a bearish case, June 1st.

I think the chances of this short term prediction happening are about 80%

[oda.krell]

If I've got this right you are in earlier than you were planning a couple of weeks ago am I right?

What was your planned buy-in point a couple of weeks ago compared with the price you actually bought in, if I may ask?

No, not really. Short recap, maybe:

I wrote a long post about the bearish triangle variants on April 25th, see here. That one guided me as far as the time frame was concerned -- convergence scenario #1 was predicted for late May at the latest, and the actual breakout was May 20, so it was pretty accurate. At the time of that post, I was still rather bearish, expecting we'd probably see a breakout to the downside. Maybe that's what you have in mind when you say "earlier than I planned"?

On May 16th I posted about a new observation that, based on MFI (a money flow oscillator), it looked like we had finally found sufficient buying support at the given price level. See the post here. From that point on I was, as I wrote, "cautiously bullish".

By May 20, MFI had continued to develop exactly as I hoped it would, so I didn't hesitate much when the breakout happened. I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet).

[MatTheCat]

I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet).

You got in about the same time as me, but you have managed to hold out for around double the increases that I emptied into my Bitstamp account....

....However, are you not of the opinion that things are beginning to look a bit shit?

4hr CMF showing negative divergence, 4hr RSI showing negative divergence, 4hr Stochastic RSI maxed and pointing/crossing down, very low volume after we have had the first mammoth red candle which dwarfed the green candles around it, at least on the shorter time frames ($586-$560 within 5 minutes which entailed some 1500 BTC sell off within that time frame)?

There could be a few pennies more in this rally, but as annoyed as I am by not getting back in at $540, there is absolutely no way would I risk a long position at this point in time. For me to be encouraged to long right now, there would have to be a shit storm of buying pressure to come in and take Bitcoin at these prices. Is it going to happen? (if it does, no doubt I will be asleep)

Zooming out, the chart still looks good, but with so many traders relying on 4Hr parameters, I could certainly see the buying pressure ease off for now. To what extent selling pressure/profit taking sets in, remains to be seen.

Edit: Large walls set up and getting chewed up as I type. Seems like big break out is on...bought back in on impulse at $571.....hope I don't regret it when I look at charts in morning.

Edit 2: Started on Huobi AGAIN. This is all coming from China. Every single time almost. Worrying?

[windjc]

I'm in since about 460, not tempted to sell (yet).

You got in about the same time as me, but you have managed to hold out for around double the increases that I emptied into my Bitstamp account....

....However, are you not of the opinion that things are beginning to look a bit shit?

4hr CMF showing negative divergence, 4hr RSI showing negative divergence, 4hr Stochastic RSI maxed and pointing/crossing down, very low volume after we have had the first mammoth red candle which dwarfed the green candles around it, at least on the shorter time frames ($586-$560 within 5 minutes which entailed some 1500 BTC sell off within that time frame)?

There could be a few pennies more in this rally, but as annoyed as I am by not getting back in at $540, there is absolutely no way would I risk a long position at this point in time. For me to be encouraged to long right now, there would have to be a shit storm of buying pressure to come in and take Bitcoin at these prices. Is it going to happen? (if it does, no doubt I will be asleep)

Zooming out, the chart still looks good, but with so many traders relying on 4Hr parameters, I could certainly see the buying pressure ease off for now. To what extent selling pressure/profit taking sets in, remains to be seen.

Edit: Large walls set up and getting chewed up as I type. Seems like big break out is on...bought back in on impulse at $571.....hope I don't regret it when I look at charts in morning.

Edit 2: Started on Huobi AGAIN. This is all coming from China. Every single time almost. Worrying?

Houbi is in control because Stamp and Finex are 95%+ traders who have money on sidelines to invest or trade with. 

We need fresh fiat to the exchanges for Houbi not to lead.

[JustAnotherSheep]

According to my favorite techniques (fibhorn and ratio analysis), 605 or 615~ seem like reasonable targets for either local tops or major ones for the rally from the triangle breakout, though an experimental resistance line at 620 or daily SMA200 (currently at 640) could also be it.
Long-term support line currently at $470, if it's tested and holds I guess the trend reversal will be confirmed 100% (not making this just a bulltrap or Wave B of C (same thing I suppose)).

[oda.krell]

Edit 2: Started on Huobi AGAIN. This is all coming from China. Every single time almost. Worrying?

Not really. The entire rally (from $450) started, within <15 min of each other, on stamp and huobi simultaneously, with them taking turns in getting new (relative, of course) volume highs after the breakout. I take that as a reasonably organic start.

What happened afterwards is another matter, but I'm not going to let the old adage that we need fresh fiat guide my trading mechanically. I'd suggest taking profits if and when it becomes apparent that the current rally ran out of steam, not earlier, unless you know with some certainty ahead of time the inflection point peak. But as always: different trading styles, different recommended actions.