Markets normally do what majority NOT expect, its already priced in.

Can you elaborate on the "firm support at roughly $5 million market cap or thereabouts"?

...just be sure to be ready to sell everything when the time comes.

My understanding is that Monero is reasonably widely held by many people who believe in crypto currency and decided that Monero represented a best open source effort amongst altcoins. And so I don't think they are in it for a short-term speculation, nor are they holding so much that they need to sell.

The hot money may rush out, but the faithful will probably scoop up coins at roughly that price level. Okay maybe $1 - 5 million. I am just saying it can't totally collapse. Whereas, those coins which are hype which is so technologically flawed that they are useless and have 0 adoption such as Ethereum, Factom, MaidSafe, Storj, etc, could go to ~0. Ethereum perhaps not if they raised some $millions during this pump, so they can probably keep the hope alive for a while ($200,000+ per month burn rate  ).

Let's say there are 1000 long-term investors holding (invested) $5000 each on average. That is $5 million. And the market cap is usually much larger than the actual capital invested (although that might not be the case for Monero since apparently it was so fairly mined and widely held and not pumped because the price can't be manipulated by buying from yourselves, because it isn't primarily held by a few whales).

... waiting for TPTB also.

[...]for the time being we have at least another 1-2 months of profit

I been intending to reply to this, so now I will since Factom's price is rising:


That doesn't address my criticism which is that transactions are not confirmed for 10 minutes. No instant transactions. Thus no microtransactions (since these usually need to be instant).


If the confirmation mechanism is attacked (and note that Bitcoin is controlled by China), then so is Factom.


You can't write anything to the block chain if the attacker doesn't allow you to.


The point is that one must obtain some tokens or units other than their preferred one in order to run Factom or Ethereum. This limits network effects and use cases, because it adds exchange risk and latency risk.


Impossible. You simply don't understand anything about Nash equilibrium and the Prisoner's dilemma. This an entirely broken design. The only possible way it could work is for all Federated servers to have absolute trust in each other.


No because nothing is confirmed by a consensus system. You simply do not understand the issues about Nash equilibrium, trust, and the Prisoner's dilemma.

Some feedback.  

Factom only uses the blockchain to secure the record.  One anchor is dropped into the bitcoin blockchain every 10 minutes.   Even if some anchors do not make it into the blockchain in a timely fashion, they can call be written, and they can also be recorded in other chains and other histories.  I don't think selfish mining has much of a way of attacking this.

Only the federated servers record and build the Factom history.  They are elected only by those holding Entry Credits (i.e. using the protocol).  So ASICs have little to do with Factom outside of Bitcoin as a publishing mechanism.

The 51 percent attack on Bitcoin might prevent anchors from being written by Factom.  There are other ways to write anchors though, so not too much of a concern.

Factom itself must have a majority of Federated Servers following the rules. So a 51 percent attack remains possible.

Factom doesn't require Factoids to use the protocol, but Entry Credits.  And while Entry Credits are created from Factoids, by breaking the direct connection of the token from the use of the protocol, the use of the protocol can be denominated in any token.  So in fact, you could give someone dollars, or Bitcoin, or XCoin in exchange for Entry Credits and make use of the Factom protocol, and never touch a Factoid.  The token only exists to reward servers to record data.  Meta protocols can thus run on top of Factom, and if those protocols have value, they can be used without any particular user having to have factoids.

Factoid transactions are irreversible as soon as a federated server has issued a receipt.

Each receipt is part of a chain of entries, so each receipt builds on the previous entries.  Thus a transaction can be considered final in Factom in seconds.

In Bitcoin-NG, the winner of a block solution does not propagate a block of transactions. Instead that node wins the right to propagate smaller micro-blocks of transactions at shorter intervals than 10 minutes. The next winner of a block solution signs the last micro-block seen, thus tying that (and preceding) micro-blocks into the block chain. The economic incentives to propagate these micro-blocks seems not well designed, and it certainly doesn't solve the selfish-mining nor the 51% attack.

The advantage is of Bitcoin-NG's design is that micro-blocks can propagate more frequently; and thus one huge block doesn't have to propagate instantaneously every roughly 10 minutes. This is essentially eliminates the transient spike of the Satoshi design; and thus improving aliasing error which takes the form of propagation delay and orphan rate in Satoshi's design. However these micro-blocks are not confirmed until the next 10 minute block is won; and thus afaics Bitcoin-NG does not speed up transaction confirmation speed. Blockchain-NG enables the block chain to scale to the rate at which the prior block winning node can process transactions and propagate them to the network; and scales without requiring all nodes to have the same capabilities nor delegate to more powerful nodes such as Gavin's proposed IBLT design.

However, the same criticism I leveled again BitShare's 2.0 design applies, in that the performance will vary every 10 minutes depending on which node has won each successive block.

It's a shame nobody has thought of a way to stop pow mining eventually always being taken away from the small miner by the larger mining corps.
I guess it's because it's not possible to do that else they would have. .

Can you explain more about the strong US dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports causing the US to fall?

This is where I'm most confused.

Note Harry Dent entirely fucked up and missed the 2007/2008 collapse (which cost me dearly as I had to try to liquidate physical silver during a collapse ... because I had moved back to the Philippines and couldn't leave my physical at the bezerk jhmint ... and at the time I thought US capital controls were imminent due to the collapse ... I was inexperienced and panicked ... but then learned a lot from Martin Armstrong hence). Dent has totally changed his long-term predictions for the future from hyperinflationary to deflationary collapse. I was buying his service back in 2006/7. He fucked me over. The only guy who has always been correct (on the macro economics, not short-term trading) since I started following him in 2010 or so, is MA (Martin Armstrong). I learned my lessons the hard way, by losing all of my former wealth (18,000oz of silver). Not just Harry Dent but also Graham Summers premature prediction of China collapse, silver dealers fucking me over (you see jhmint.com, tulving.com and the silver dealer I dealt with in Manila are all bankrupt!), etc..


The mistake you and many (most) people make is that an implosion is a slow motion train wreck that goes through several stages. The next stage is the international capital escapes the collapsing peripheral economies to the main reserve economy. This is the way it always goes, ditto in the collapse of the Roman and the Athenian empires. We are actually in the midst of the collapse of the US empire, but the paradox is that the core of the empire becomes stronger before the end collapse.

After 2018, the rest of the world will complain about the strong dollar as being the source of the problem, so there will be a monetary reorganization of the reserve currency to enable power sharing with EU and AU (Asian Union). Some say this is the 10 Kings stage which precedes the final one world global currency stage at the end game of Revelations:



So yes cash would be a premium, except we have a problem. The governments routinely cancel the fiat cash and thus force cash out-of-hiding. And in the past, you could hop on a boat with gold, but now your gold will be confiscated at transit hubs and checkpoints.

No this is a empire type collapse where nothing survives. The governments are going to hunt down everything. So until 2017.9, the mainstream wealthy will move to the US dollar and US stocks. Then the USA will trap (confiscate?) all that money with capital controls as FATCA comes into full force in 2017. And the global economy will implode. We likely go into war too as a result of this economic frustration.


No it means the Chinese mining cartel owns your Bitcoin. They can block any transaction they want once we go into war. You are not Chinese, they block your transactions. They control 65% of the hashrate and on the next halving the marginal miners go, which means Chinese ASIC miners will gain greater percentage. They can then extort high transaction fees or in any case some big mess, same as what (well intentioned) top-down control did to China's arable land.

If you don't think China can't require KYC identification on every Bitcoin transaction, then think again:

https://www.aclu.org/blog/free-future/chinas-nightmarish-citizen-scores-are-warning-americans
http://theantimedia.org/china-just-launched-the-most-frightening-game-ever-and-soon-it-will-be-mandatory/

We don't have a solution for cypto currency yet.

The USA imports a lot, so a strong dollar will be an infusion in the consumer's arm because imported products (including oil) will be cheaper. So this will be more money that can be spent on for example a renewed subprime real estate bubble.

So this will artificially inflate the consumption/debt side of the economy which is already disproportionate, then it will shrink the export sector due to the strong dollar (costs more for other nations to import) and the collapsing demand of other nations.

So the economy goes into a terminal bubble, that once it loses momentum can't sustain itself and collapses. Realize this stampede into the US dollar (which eventually decelerates) will create a momentum for people to take on new debt in the USA. It will be rapid and very short lived boom right before the horrific Minsky Moment collapse. Note this is exactly what happened in the booming 1920s (right before the 1929 collapse), as all of Europe's gold was escaping to the USA.

The markets have a way of head faking people who not paying attention to capital flows.

What if the Fed doesn't raise rates in March, in 2016?

Yea, they could do so if they chose to embrace the famous Larimer "captive audience" fallacy.  The part where Larimer thought he could increase transaction fees to be uncompetitive with other current cryptocurrency offerings to subsidize some ridiculous referral system.  Blocking transactions or other schemes is not a valid strategy from a profit orientated entity.  If the Chinese government conspired to do it, it would just cause a nuclear option fork.  This is just a potential short term problem that could happen, but probably won't, and would not be the death of Bitcoin even if it did.

On this subject, you're either in or out of the Harry Dent camp.

Highly liquid assets such as commonly accepted currency retain value the best in these scenarios, while everything else implodes.  Who is to say debt based fiat would even have value after such a market implosion though?  A vast majority of the money supply simply disappearing might cause a switch to a new currency because the economy would come to a halt, or helicopter money would be required to jump start it, which then causes the value to go to nothing anyway.  Fiat is in no way a safe haven.  Besides short term valuations, Bitcoin and gold are isolated entirely from that contagion.

The limited network capacity does not make Bitcoin a commodity, it makes it a network where only high value purchases or bundled low value purchases can be made.

I believe Martin Armstrong has the correct model of what will transpire over the next few years.

His model is basically that the entire world is short the dollar ($10 trillion in international corporate bonds denominated in US dollars, various currencies pegged to the dollar, e.g. the Hong Kong dollar and Chinese Yuan, which enabled China to undercut the world's manufacturing and become a highly imbalanced economy with 65% share being for factories and only a miniscule consumer share, which leaves China with overcapacity and negative profit margins, etc)..

So basically what will happen now is the entire world will go into collapse mode as the US dollar goes higher and the world's wealthy flee into the US stock market as the final safe haven. This will cause the US dollar and US stock market to sky rocket until about 2017.9, after which the US will collapse due to a strong dollar overheating the US consumer economy and collapsing exports. From 2018 to 2020, will be "an over the cliff" collapse for the entire world, since the US economy was the last one still standing up in 2017. Asia will bottom in 2020, because fundamentally Asia has the youth and the growth potential without the retirees that will fight for Socialism. Asia's debt can be cleared out by debt defaults, but the West's debt is cultural and can't be cleared out, because the boomers will fight politically for their retirements and demand the government tax everyone to pay their retirements.

So March 13/14 is the turning point that should see crisis accelerate outside the USA. Just this past week China announced laying off 1.9 million steel workers. The exodus of capital from China going to the USA for safe haven has radically accelerated, some even saying China's reserves will be threatened as this accelerates.


The dead-cat bounce in gold is because the USA Fed did not aggressively raise rates yet, which enabled Europe and China to buy a little bit of time. This also enabled Bitcoin (and the altcoins) to get a bid. But this is a dead-cat bounce and  the final lows for the speculative assets is coming. Again I am reasonably confident of < $850 for gold and < $100 for Bitcoin. I am thinking perhaps $50 for Bitcoin, but it is also possible the block size issue and Blockstream totally fuck up Bitcoin and we sell off to $10. I think perhaps that is extreme, but I don't place it outside the realm of possibility. Again I don't know if this selloff will be in March or later in the summer, but in either case I am reasonably confident it is coming.

So for the interim time the safe parking asset is the US dollar. After gold bottoms, then gold is a go to asset but as a diversification not as a core holding. As for crypto currency, it is too murky to know yet, because currently it is difficult to know whether Bitcoin is heading for total failure (slap yourself, it is possible <--- click this link!).

For a core holding, appears the US stock market once the current correction has bottomed. Expect a double by roughly 2017.9.

For a speculative holding, find the best crypto currency after the washout.

For a core holding after 2017.9, purchase a Bible and pray. Seriously, nothing may survive. Even if you buy real estate in Asia, you may not be able to hang on to it, as the governments are going to cooperate to make sure we white guys pay all our taxes back home (don't expect the European policy of not taxes expatriates to hold). I guess try to diversify and put things in other people's name? Bury gold? (I don't like these ideas)

If you want more information, I suggest reading the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum. There I have defended against the trolls such as sloanf, and I think explained why Martin Armstrong's record is superior to any other analyst on earth. You might be skeptical of his ability to predict the macro economic future by tracking 1000s of financial and other variables along with his $1 billion of historic data in an A.I. computer model that employs multi-dimensional cycle correlation.

Edit: if you think Asia will be a great place to migrate too, read this:

Btw, even I have been coming to and living in the Philippines perhaps half of my years on earth, I am still shocked how rampant the corruption is here. It is built into the culture that the people use each other. I guess it comes from the Spanish occupation and perhaps even before that the tribes probably captured each other for slavery. For example, the brother of my ex holds a tourist visa to go Brunei (will look around for a job), but he doesn't want to fly directly from Manila to Brunei, because the immigration officials are likely to deny his exit if he doesn't bribe them. Whereas, if he flies from Manila to Hong Kong they may not suspect he is seeking employment abroad and thus may not extort him.