In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase.
As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation.
...thanks, I've been watching a similar but cruder indicator, it's basically the old days "mine or buy?" indicator. So far it's been good for medium to long term entry points on the secular bitcoin bull. It's really just a manifestation of the bitcoin mining cost-of-production price providing a floor to bitcoin market price and getting in at cost-of-production, i.e. the mining price ... miner's who have contracts to supply will buy at the market if market price drops below their mining costs, that's basic economics of doing business in a cut-throat industry. Every now and then I feel there is a need to educate people before they rush to invest in mining hardware without considering the basic truth of network adjusted difficulty vs simply buying the coin. I feel this is a good indicator of outside investment vs existing miners re-investing in their operation. In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase.
As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation.
...thanks, I've been watching a similar but cruder indicator, it's basically the old days "mine or buy?" indicator. So far it's been good for medium to long term entry points on the secular bitcoin bull. It's really just a manifestation of the bitcoin mining cost-of-production price providing a floor to bitcoin market price and getting in at cost-of-production, i.e. the mining price ... miner's who have contracts to supply will buy at the market if market price drops below their mining costs, that's basic economics of doing business in a cut-throat industry. Cointelegraph recently posted an article estimating that most miners are barely breaking even at $8000. There's other news outlets running articles with the same mining's no longer profitable theme. Bullish? https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reports-bitcoin-mining-now-less-profitable-due-to-falling-btc-pricesA recent report by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee notes that Bitcoin (BTC) mining earnings are currently almost breaking even, as the activity has temporarily become less profitable the midst of the current decline in the markets, CNBC reported yesterday, March 15.
Lee notes in the report that the current figure for the cost of mining one bitcoin is $8,038, while BTC is trading at around $8,221 by press time, down a quarter of a percent over a 24 hour period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
The model Fundstrat used for calculating the cost of mining one BTC includes the cost of equipment, overhead such as sustaining cooling apparatuses, and the cost of electricity, assumed to be 6 cents per kilowatt. The head of quantitative data science at Fundstrat, Sam Doctor, said that the cost of replacing equipment takes up more than half of the overall cost of mining. It is good to see that others are helping keep awareness in the forefront. It is true that even if an operation has government subsidized power costs that render it to 0 cents kwh it may prove "profitable" because in the world crypto economy every coin you make is a peace of the global pie. I can see if government subsidization can be part of a mining operation. This perk would most likely come with a contract obligation to reinvest in the local community/economy. For some that is invaluable opportunity especially if it is a place with free power abundant infrastructure / buildings and serious unemployment. |
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G20 holds fire on crypto-regulation ... way clear for ETFs?
No. G20 says crypto too small to regulate. SEC says crypto too small for ETFs. The simplest way to regulate is at the exchange level. They did it with finsen and will do it with exchanges listing ICO's and such that will need to be pre approved in one way or another or risk getting shut down. This will open up the door to decentralized exchanges and hopefully the old tricks of market manipulation that has plagued the whole traditional and in the past few years crypto market will be a thing of the past. |
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In the spirit of all the on topic charts and sharing going on I have updated my bitcoin difficulty vs mining hardware return sheet with today's bitcoin network difficulty increase. As predicted the 5% average is holding strong. However come Friday with the next wave of hardware being shipped I wonder if the increase network hit will once again ring true that at this price point USD/BTC its best to simply buy BTC instead of mining hardware. That is if profit is your motivation. Typically with crypto mining apart from hardware and infrastructure costs there is ongoing building labour and other miscellaneous overhead that is not being factored in this example. Forgot to include the document link.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharingThis is an example of BTC/USD was at $9500 and your only costs was power of 10 cents a KWH.  This is an example if BTC/USD was at $9500 usd and your only costs was hardware repayment and power at 10 cents a KWH.  |
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Inverse head and shoulders breaking out on the 1 hr. Choo choo!Nice symmetry on the shoulders.  With all that liquidity just waiting to get into the game, I am reminded of something like this:  What the big boy's are thinking when trying to enter the Crypto market unnoticed. |
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BTC dominance is sinking and sinking.
I don't really like this.
Altcoins are thriving just as before the crash and it gets worst.
Its likely part of a cycle - I (speculatively) can see an alt bubble followed by a BTC surge
I hope you're right starmman, but, it just doesn't look like BTC will ever regain its dominance to even the 50% level. Hell, look at ripple up 50%, people were wiped out on that recently and it just doesn't seem to matter. I consider most alts to be shit, but, I guess when it's all speculating it doesn't really matter that they are shit. Altcoins are predominantly denominated in BTC. So when BTC goes up by X%, alts will usually go up by at least X% as well in terms of USD. This will cause people to think that alts are entering a bull run, which might trigger buy orders that will drive up their price in terms of BTC as well, which will ultimately lead to a price rise above the X% of BTC in terms of USD. Why is that happening only now and not before? Before people would only pay attention to BTC/xyzcoin trading pairs. Now we have the copycat namesake and all BCHBCCBcash that is being used to move and pump/dump between alt trading pairs. BCH and BTG are like us creating another USD and having special interest groups declare it legal tender. This "trend" needs to be addressed much like fraudulent ICO's have. This really falls on the responsibilities of the exchanges. |
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I think alts are a disease and we won't have another 10x or 100x increase until the alts largely die off. Every time bitcoin pumps and the alts pump even harder, it is like cancer overtaking the body every time it starts getting healthy. This sickness will have to run it's course and when the disease has been cured/eradicated, bitcoin can finally grow to it's true potential. This will probably take a few more years.
The real issue is how Bitcoin cash Bitcoin gold are being used to trade between cryptocurrency pair to prop them up. Pay attention to dash zec ltc eth. Every time one of those pairs to BTC have lower trading volume is being used to keep for instance ETH/BTC at a target of 0.0100 when BTC recovers then ETH/BTC goes past that 0.0102 and then those gains get drained and put into zec with the latest move. |
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UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.
This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it. +10 WOsMerits This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)
Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA. Thanks for that. However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1.  Love those days! Change is inevitable, no? Probably 95% of the members of this forum did not know what bitcoin was in 2011 - There are even some members of this forum who got into Bitcoin in 2016 who are considered as OGs by some later arrivals, based on their largely beating the 2017 price run-up... Actually one stressful circumstance could have been attempting to accumulate in 2017 while the price was going up and trying to figure out a plan for accumulation (and I think that we have seen some of the stresses of those later entrants in this thread), but if you had already largely accumulated your BTC and was mostly maintaining your stash (which does not rule out continued accumulation) in 2017, then currently, you should be sitting in pretty territory.. at least from a financial point of view (if you did not panic sell too much BTC at some too early stage), even if you are still spending a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what it is that you invested into, exactly. hahahahahaha By the way, personally, I do not consider myself to be an OG, even though the term is kind of relative, but I might consider someone who entered before 2013 to be an OG of sorts (and you, Sitarow, would likely fit my rough relative timeline categorization of a BTC OG)... I love change  "bitcoin" anyone. I share this document to bring perspective and awareness by helping those that wish to get rich quick and also those that don't take responsibility for themselves. WE have since 15USD/BTC had an influx of shady groups finding new ways to defraud others. "Fake hardware projects" Fake ICO projects" and now lets clone COIN XYZ and use its name and branding to confuse the newbies into buying our "fork". Fork XYZcash anyone?  |
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UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.
This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it. +10 WOsMerits This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)
Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA. Thanks for that. However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Love those days! |
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Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.
TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k? I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players. Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first. Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull To gauge the bottom I use the miners profitability vs return on new hardware. Additionally miners are hardcore into bitcoin and crypto and they are first to reinvest in bitcoin by buying up asic hardware. If it proves profitable to buy btc vs buying hardware they will. Simply see the cost return comparison. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit#gid=1194614223Here is an example that also includes the last two years of network difficulty as an average. Here is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 9,500.00 USD to BTC  https://i.imgur.com/bDhEa5r.pngHere is the Antminer S9 13.5TH Return at 15,000.00 USD to BTC  https://i.imgur.com/J41nWjy.pngHere is the Avalon 821 11TH if the price was at 15,000.00. https://i.imgur.com/L7MGVjV.pngUPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion. This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes. Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations (i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests) |
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I don't trade in BCH/BCC nor BTG.
However does anyone have a chart for the past two weeks of activity with them and volume?
Also between BCH/ETH, BCH/LTC, BCH/Dash, and BCH/Zec Pairs?
Would be interesting to see if those coins are taking a beating BTC/ETH BTC/LTC BTC/DASH BTC/ZEC because of it.
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if you have free power and nobody has to listen it's awesome.
Even with free power you still have the cost of the money you put in place and your time along with any import fees and rental costs. As a space heater then it works well at 9500 USD/BTC getting you a small profit of 0.04BTC over the course of 1.5 years of babysitting. An estimated 0.04 BTC over 1.5 years. Damn near nowhere certain. Also out of curiosity because it's very difficult to read that spreadsheet, does that include the large chunk of money you'll get back when you go to sell and upgrade miners in the future or are you just for some reason assuming that it will be a piece of metal to throw in the garbage? Great question. Unfortunately I have not had a request for this. However I can add it. Like selling and keeping your overhead low and perhaps using these as heating sources in place of conventional heaters. The reality is you can depreciate the asset over time to get tax savings. I don't know how accurate it would be because god knows what will happen a few years from now, but you could use the time since the S7 has been released and the percentage that its retail price on Bitmain vs. it's resale price on eBay has declined over that time span and factor that in. It's a lot of money that a lot of people don't consider when they calculate ROI. True. Even after having the audacity of attempting to estimate market trends and hardware development or the going future rate of BTC/USD. Adding another variable only serves for awareness of the option. |
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if you have free power and nobody has to listen it's awesome.
Even with free power you still have the cost of the money you put in place and your time along with any import fees and rental costs. As a space heater then it works well at 9500 USD/BTC getting you a small profit of 0.04BTC over the course of 1.5 years of babysitting. An estimated 0.04 BTC over 1.5 years. Damn near nowhere certain. Also out of curiosity because it's very difficult to read that spreadsheet, does that include the large chunk of money you'll get back when you go to sell and upgrade miners in the future or are you just for some reason assuming that it will be a piece of metal to throw in the garbage? Great question. Unfortunately I have not had a request for this. However I can add it. Like selling and keeping your overhead low and perhaps using these as heating sources in place of conventional heaters. The reality is you can depreciate the asset over time to get tax savings. UPDATE: Option value added for End of life sale located at P:24 |
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if you have free power and nobody has to listen it's awesome.
Even with free power you still have the cost of the money you put in place and your time along with any import fees and rental costs. As a space heater then it works well at 9500 USD/BTC getting you a small profit of 0.04BTC over the course of 1.5 years of babysitting. Antminer V9 4TH 1.5 years operation you save $1,069.72 in power costs if it was 0.10 /KWH  https://i.imgur.com/Og7qGzQ.pngAntminer S9 13.5TH 1.5 year operation you save $1531.00 at 0.10 / KHW original power costs.  https://i.imgur.com/KRG1Ug1.png |
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BCash and BGold:  Roger pumping his shitcoin again? yuck The timing is no surprise Notice how ltc to BTC took a hit? These new coins have given market manipulation a new trading pair that is a dream come true for market manipulation of the inexperienced. |
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They seem to only make sense if you have less than .03 kw/h power, to see anything close to an ROI.
I would be curious to see what it really says under the white sticker that seems to have been applied over the top of the original sticker. If it weren't for the MOQ of 5, I would order one just to find out.
Considering that you may not have this hardware until sometime in march I have taken the yearly average of 10% network difficulty increase and applied it for when you are expected to start receiving the hardware. Here is an estimate of the network difficulty as of March 2018. Results for BTC/USD estimated trading price at $8500.00 USD
Estimated March 23 2018 Difficulty 3,811,165,475,251 Results for BTC/USD estimated trading price at $15000.00 USD
Estimated March 23 2018 Difficulty 3,811,165,475,251 Edit: Forgot to include the reference document link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing |
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Considering that you may not have this hardware until sometime in march I have taken the yearly average of 10% network difficulty increase and applied it for when you are expected to start receiving the hardware. Here is an estimate of the network difficulty as of March 2018. Results for BTC/USD estimated trading price at $8500.00 USD
Estimated March 23 2018 Difficulty 3,811,165,475,251Results for BTC/USD estimated trading price at $15000.00 USD
Estimated March 23 2018 Difficulty 3,811,165,475,251 |
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I cant help but wonder what is ppl thinking for paying 3500$ for a 11th miner? thats a 14 month to ROI without any diff increase.
Here is what it would look like if BTC/USD was at $15,000.00. From what I can see buying BTC at this low rate vs hardware purchase of this type makes business sense. Here is the document for reference.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharingI have both price adjusted target increase of 5% and true hardware adoption increase of at estimate rate of 10% per difficulty target.
Estimates if BTC/USD Trading at $8,500.00 USD https://i.imgur.com/CexYmwC.pngEstimates if BTC/USD Trading at $15,000.00 USD https://i.imgur.com/3Oa8rV5.png^ updated to reflect proper name and other purchase options, Update #2: Reflect Recent Difficulty Change. Update: Nothing in the this post shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations (i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests) This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes. |
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4TH for $435 bucks USD is still A WHOLE LOT BETTER than Canaan’s. 11TH @ $2,880
True but also the S9 is up for sell and they do 13.5TH at 1375watts. You also need to buy a minimum qty of 5 V9's |
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I use cost of mining hardware to gauge the direction of a correction. People know that Miners are hardcore into BTC and tend to get the loans to invest in hardware that in turn gets put back into the bitcoin echosystem. Here is a recent offering from a manufacturer that is working with Samsung to create ASIC's in one copacity or another. Expect new hardware to come out of this. Pay attention to the argument that is it better to buy BTC now or buy hardware and accumulate BTC at a loss? There are many reasons for these devices. Perhaps obligatory contracts and these help replace end of life hardware. Here is what it would look like if BTC/USD was at $15,000.00. From what I can see buying BTC at this low rate vs hardware purchase of this type makes business sense. UPDATE: Here is the document for reference. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharingBTC/USD 15000 NETWORK DIFFICULTY INCREASE OF 10% FOR 6 RE-TARGETS.  BTC/USD 8500 NETWORK DIFFICULTY INCREASE OF 5% FOR 6 RE-TARGETS.  ^ updated to reflect proper name and other purchase options, Update: Nothing in the this post shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations (i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests) This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes. |
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