Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

whalepool all in an uproar about some enormous short liquidation

10,340 BTC

Thunderous squishing sounds, at last.

A couple of questions..

1) If shorts get liquidated at these kinds of prices, that would likely mean that they were entered into in the below $7k territory, and if that much bear money gets liquidated,

2) if that quantity of shorts get's liquidated, wouldn't that provide a certain amount of lessening of the upwards BTC price resistance?

I am thinking that we cannot necessarily presume UP from this large liquidation, even though some bearwhales were likely reckt in the process, because other bearwhales could come in and profit through placing further shorts, perhaps?

When a short gets liquidated (or even when it gets closed voluntarily by the trader), the person who shorts has to buy bitcoins to pay back the margin. So over 10000 BTC should have some kind of immediate effect. Although how long it lasts is another story. At least that is how it would work at Bitfinex. If it happened at Bitmex, that would not be the case because that is really a derivatives type market, from my understanding. If it was CBOE or CME, those are really cash settled and do not involve the trading of real bitcoins, so the effect would be minimal. I am not sure how OKCOIN, Kraken or the other exchanges that offer margin trading work. What exchange did this happen on?

Yes.  It would be nice to engage in some more speculation on this topic, if we had more information and perhaps links.  You could be correct, Bones, that the effect might be different based on the exchange because of how BIG of a difference of the financial impact that could be caused
depending on the policy of the exchange.  I am only weakly familiar with margin trading, since I do not employ such a practice myself, yet my understanding is that all value or money for the position is put up front - so whether you close the position early or you are forced out of the position by market movement, you have already put up whatever money is needed in order to cover those kinds of eventualities, and you would perhaps end up losing that extra money that is put up whether it is for exchange costs or to pay back whoever had made the loan.  Any better description of the overall process or the specifics of this situation would be helpful, here.

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[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/CryptOrca/status/962020065506770944 and thread following
okex

What exchange did this happen on?

[Sitarow]

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  

Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Love those days!

[JayJuanGee]

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  

Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Love those days!

Change is inevitable, no?

Probably 95% of the members of this forum did not know what bitcoin was in 2011 -

There are even some members of this forum who got into Bitcoin in 2016 who are considered as OGs by some later arrivals, based on their largely beating the 2017 price run-up...

Actually one stressful circumstance could have been attempting to accumulate in 2017 while the price was going up and trying to figure out a plan for accumulation (and I think that we have seen some of the stresses of those later entrants in this thread), but if you had already largely accumulated your BTC and was mostly maintaining your stash (which does not rule out continued accumulation) in 2017, then currently, you should be sitting in pretty territory.. at least from a financial point of view (if you did not panic sell too much BTC at some too early stage), even if you are still spending a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what it is that you invested into, exactly.  hahahahahaha

By the way, personally, I do not consider myself to be an OG, even though the term is kind of relative, but I might consider someone who entered before 2013 to be an OG of sorts (and you, Sitarow, would likely fit my rough relative timeline categorization of a BTC OG)...

[TERA2]

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.  

Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them).  A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin...   Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?

You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....

Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.

By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.

Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly.  Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..   ... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.

The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.

[bones261]

https://twitter.com/CryptOrca/status/962020065506770944 and thread following
okex

What exchange did this happen on?

Very interesting read. So the average entry looks like 8000, and the person decided not to close the positions, even though it was all gravy when BTC was in the 6K range. What a stubborn bearwhale. REKT. Glad the person/entity has been vanquished. Only way that I would feel pity for this person/entity is if it is revealed that some kind of technical problem, either on OKEX or the shorter's end, prevented closing the position in a timely manner.

I tried to read the FAQ on how OKEX futures contracts work. It befuddled me. Perhaps I didn't Google well enough.   However, I assume how it works is that the contracts are settled every Friday. So the money/bitcoin is just exchanged between the people who hold the contracts at that time. So the effect on the market is only minimal, like CBOE, CME and Bitmex.

I am like JJG when it comes to margin trading. I have dabbled in Kraken and Poloniex. I think the longest that I ever held a position open was far less than an hour. I find myself getting rather nervous over my satoshis/pennies, and end up just getting out. I definitely would not go to sleep or even move more than 10 yards away from my device with a position open.  

[mike4001]

Sorry for the Altcoin talk but: Holy Sh** @ Bitcoin Gold ...

Someone is pumping this really good ;-)

[Sitarow]

UPDATE: Note that every difficulty update I use the update this charting details for my own use. I suggest you go ahead and make your own or ask a trusted friend that mines to review it for yourself. Always good to get a 2nd or 3rd opinion.

This is some great information...thank you for sharing and the time you have invested in creating it.

+10 WOsMerits

This document is for awareness and at the users discretion for educational purposes.                                 
Nothing in the this document shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or investment recommendations                                  
(i.e., recommendations as to whether or not to “buy”, “sell”, “hold”, or to enter or not to enter into any other transaction involving any specific interest or interests)                                  

Still puked a bit in my mouth seeing legalize tacked on the end...even tho its smart to CYA.

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Love those days!

Change is inevitable, no?

Probably 95% of the members of this forum did not know what bitcoin was in 2011 -

There are even some members of this forum who got into Bitcoin in 2016 who are considered as OGs by some later arrivals, based on their largely beating the 2017 price run-up...

Actually one stressful circumstance could have been attempting to accumulate in 2017 while the price was going up and trying to figure out a plan for accumulation (and I think that we have seen some of the stresses of those later entrants in this thread), but if you had already largely accumulated your BTC and was mostly maintaining your stash (which does not rule out continued accumulation) in 2017, then currently, you should be sitting in pretty territory.. at least from a financial point of view (if you did not panic sell too much BTC at some too early stage), even if you are still spending a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what it is that you invested into, exactly.  hahahahahaha

By the way, personally, I do not consider myself to be an OG, even though the term is kind of relative, but I might consider someone who entered before 2013 to be an OG of sorts (and you, Sitarow, would likely fit my rough relative timeline categorization of a BTC OG)...

I love change "bitcoin" anyone.

I share this document to bring perspective and awareness by helping those that wish to get rich quick and also those that don't take responsibility for themselves.

WE have since 15USD/BTC had an influx of shady groups finding new ways to defraud others. "Fake hardware projects" Fake ICO projects" and now lets clone COIN XYZ and use its name and branding to confuse the newbies into buying our "fork". Fork XYZcash anyone?

[josephpogi]

I duno why the market is going to the mooon. Its time to buy? Or if the volume of bitcoin in coinbase hits 100mm it will go down again? What do you think masters?

[JayJuanGee]

Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.

TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?

I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.

Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.

Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull

Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.  

Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them).  A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin...   Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?

You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....

Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.

By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.

Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly.  Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..   ... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.

The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.

I am not assuming anything.  I merely said that they (Wall street types) are looking into Bitcoin, and they did not even know about it before $10k.  So how is my statement assuming in regards to their actual investment or their actual pushing this particular price rise - all by themselves?  I suppose I am assuming that the more that Wall street types know about bitcoin, the more that their knowing about it could contribute to some kind of bullish impact on bitcoin.. and I am NOT even saying that buying pressure is coming from ONLY one aspect of the market.  

Even you should realize that Bitcoin is much more than some simple kind of appeal to only one sector.. financialization is ONLY one of the several bitcoin networking effects that may well be in its early infancy stages.  You are familiar with the seven network effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer?  You need a link?  

Do you think that those other six network (besides financialization) effects are not important in the overall consideration regarding where bitcoin is at and where it might be going?  Do you think that those other six network effects have already sufficiently matured in bitcoin?  or do you think that those other six network effects are still too early to potentially influence bitcoin into an early 2013 type scenario.  

By the way, I like the way you even doubled down (NOT) on your bearishness by suggesting a 2011 scenario (which I think that you are implying that this particular BTC downtrend could be even longer than the one in 2014/2015, which I think is what you mean by your 2011 reference).  

It is like ongoing that you, Terabeara, take these outrageous positions (like a troll) to spread FUD, and then later, when some semblance of the direction of your prediction moves in a direction of coming true, then you don't hesitate to take full credit for something that you did not even call - because like I mentioned earlier, you had been whining about BTC bubble ever since $5k, and I recall that you were even whining about BTC bubble when you first came back into the thread in 2015 as BTC prices were coming out of the long flat period,  it did not take you too long to get back to your bearish talking points (here's your return to the WO post for reference)... Even when you try to act like you have reasonable discussion points, you are flooded with persistent bearish BTC FUD spreading party pooping negativisms.      

TLDR:  TeraBera needs to attend some kind of BTC enlightenment camp that is NOT in the woods, so she can break her ties from bears, but more importantly break her ties from government/corporate shills.  INTENSE reform is what seems to be needed for your lost cause status (if there is any possible hope?).

[bones261]

I duno why the market is going to the mooon. Its time to buy? Or if the volume of bitcoin in coinbase hits 100mm it will go down again? What do you think masters?

Take the amount of fiat that you would be comfortable losing on a junket to Las Vegas, and buy. 

[fabiorem]

The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.

Maybe they want bitcoin to cover those fake derivatives.

How many of those WS funds do you think are not doing exactly the same as tether do, but dont have any media exposure because it is common practice there?

Bitcoin is like a pure, pristine, untainted market to them.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I duno why the market is going to the mooon. Its time to buy? Or if the volume of bitcoin in coinbase hits 100mm it will go down again? What do you think masters?

Take the amount of fiat that you would be comfortable losing on a junket to Las Vegas, and buy. 

Attractive financial instrument.
Where do I sign?

[Toxic2040]

Thanks for that.

However true, this is not the community it used to be back before BTC was $1. Love those days!

It has been quite the ride..and its far from over.

Change is inevitable, no?

Probably 95% of the members of this forum did not know what bitcoin was in 2011 -

There are even some members of this forum who got into Bitcoin in 2016 who are considered as OGs by some later arrivals, based on their largely beating the 2017 price run-up...

Actually one stressful circumstance could have been attempting to accumulate in 2017 while the price was going up and trying to figure out a plan for accumulation (and I think that we have seen some of the stresses of those later entrants in this thread), but if you had already largely accumulated your BTC and was mostly maintaining your stash (which does not rule out continued accumulation) in 2017, then currently, you should be sitting in pretty territory.. at least from a financial point of view (if you did not panic sell too much BTC at some too early stage), even if you are still spending a considerable amount of time trying to figure out what it is that you invested into, exactly.  hahahahahaha

By the way, personally, I do not consider myself to be an OG, even though the term is kind of relative, but I might consider someone who entered before 2013 to be an OG of sorts (and you, Sitarow, would likely fit my rough relative timeline categorization of a BTC OG)...

Sitarow's post opened the flood gates and now I am cruising the way back machine trying to remember exactly when I first heard of bitcoin. I want to say that it was right around Christmas of 2011..the price had just spiked to $15 and then dropped...everyone was in a panic. Quite the series of unfortunate events drew me towards bitcoin..mostly due to the closing of Full Tilt and the subsequent backlash over online gambling in the US. I didnt fully enter until march of 2012 tho and even then I only lurked around this forum under another account. Meh..I am mono logging...

My points are this...JJG, your OG dude...dont sweat it...you are like a fixture on the WO now..your place in history is assured. The market will continue to fluctuate..same deal..buy the dips when you can. I strongly feel that we are going to breach 5 figures before we have another dip in the coming weeks. It would not surprise me to have a new ATL for the year but those predicting a long winter...I dont see it. Late Spring and Summer are going to be hot hot hot! Inertia is a funny thing. I have been thinking about the term "Legacy Markets"..thats what our previous global markets are now. Bitcoin and crypto are the future..its here now.

The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.

Because more efficient markets consume less efficient markets. See above about Legacy Markets.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I love change "bitcoin" anyone.

I share this document to bring perspective and awareness by helping those that wish to get rich quick and also those that don't take responsibility for themselves.

WE have since 15USD/BTC had an influx of shady groups finding new ways to defraud others. "Fake hardware projects" Fake ICO projects" and now lets clone COIN XYZ and use its name and branding to confuse the newbies into buying our "fork". Fork XYZcash anyone?

[http://img0.joyreactor.com/pics/post/full/comics-dilbert-parody-money-799278.gif[/img]

I cannot disagree with anything that you say - especially since less than 3% of my crypto portfolio holdings is alts, and half of the value of my alt holdings seems to be due to the fact that I split my Bgold, but I have not cashed out of them, yet.

Nonetheless, there still seems to be some need to accept and maneuver the space as it is rather than longing for some kind of pure historical state of affairs that is not likely to return... the cat is out of the bag - or the toothpaste is out of the tube... .. so we gotta deal with that and maneuver and attempt to figure out ways to advantage from those various dynamics, too.  Seems that in the long run, honey badger, aka BTC, is likely going to profit from these various crazy dynamics, including crazy kids these days who are losing money through various alt/ICO scams.. At the same time, a lot of snot nosed 14 year olds have been able to acquire Lambos, and even prematurely move out of grandma's basement because of their involvement in the scammy marketing project that we have also referred to as ETH.

[sirazimuth]

Guys come on. Nobody gives a crap about IQ debates, pen, or other stuff.
Just go there for that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=9.0

 I disagree.  I love pens.  Look at this one:

The Lighthouse of Alexandria



by Pelikan

You know today is gonna be exciting. When The Wall starts talking about pens.

 I'm excited.
4

Are they available at  penisland.com ?        (actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")

  No, that site redirects to a malicious site.   Anyway, the pen above is one of a limited edition run of 440.  It would be difficult to find and purchase.

I'm so disappointed. sirazimuth claimed penisland.com was an actual website that sold pens, but a snapshot from 2001 shows it was a porno website called penis land, not a respectable pen selling website called pen island.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010926155606/http://penisland.com:80/

 Ah ha!  Now we get to the heart of the maliciousness.

The real deal pen selling website is called http://www.penisland.net/

tbh,I just saw a pen in a glass dildo and it reminded me of the penisland.comnet thing I read about years ago that gave me a chuckle.
it wasn't meant as a link, just a joke ( got googled, of course... thank you fartbuddy for clarifying)

 I promise no more malicious penisland jokes...my bad

(I just checked out http://www.penisland.net...and 1st thing I see... "We Specialize in Wood"... LMAO! )

[Torque]

Some bullish action here to cross $8900...

[conspirosphere.tk]

I duno why the market is going to the mooon. Its time to buy? Or if the volume of bitcoin in coinbase hits 100mm it will go down again? What do you think masters?

i'm not a master but on the 1-4hs charts I see a sequence of mini-cup&handles.
But maybe it means just that i need a sleep.

[JayJuanGee]

Sitarow's post opened the flood gates and now I am cruising the way back machine trying to remember exactly when I first heard of bitcoin. I want to say that it was right around Christmas of 2011..the price had just spiked to $15 and then dropped...everyone was in a panic. Quite the series of unfortunate events drew me towards bitcoin..mostly due to the closing of Full Tilt and the subsequent backlash over online gambling in the US. I didnt fully enter until march of 2012 tho and even then I only lurked around this forum under another account. Meh..I am mono logging...

So, comparing and contrasting war stories is not a bad endeavor, and hopefully our memories can stay somewhat consistent because with the passage of time, sometimes we can begin to remember history differently or even emphasize different aspects of history.

Regarding BTC accumulation:  It really seems that you accomplished your initial accumulation much faster than me, because my initial accumulation took a year from late 2013 to late 2014.

Regarding memory of finding out about bitcoin:  A keep searching my memory about this and it is a strange kind of thing that I knew that I recognized the name bitcoin in August to November 2013 time, and maybe even earlier than that.  I recall that in about September 2013, I was researching into investments, and BTC was on my list of things to look into, and I never got to it  and I ended up investing into various index funds... like mutual funds in October and November 2013.  I guess I was still in the investment research mode because around mid-November 2013, I looked into the BTC matter, and kind of kicked myself for my mutual funds investment and thereafter created a supplemental BTC investment plan... anyhow, after the mutual funds had run a year, I did fold that money into BTC at the end of 2014.. so I guess that part worked out in the longer term.

My points are this...JJG, your OG dude...dont sweat it...you are like a fixture on the WO now..your place in history is assured.

I suppose OG status could be understood in various ways.. including hanging out and continuing to post during 2015 WO thread desert land.... hahahahaha ... was pretty lonely around here during those times..   

The market will continue to fluctuate..same deal..buy the dips when you can. I strongly feel that we are going to breach 5 figures before we have another dip in the coming weeks. It would not surprise me to have a new ATL for the year but those predicting a long winter...I dont see it.

Personally, I think that we are still in a bull market as long as we stay above $5k-ish.. even with a quick dip down to $3k.

On the other hand, if prices go below $3k, then the long winter scenario would become the more plausible scenario.

Late Spring and Summer are going to be hot hot hot! Inertia is a funny thing.

Seems to be the more likely scenario.

I have been thinking about the term "Legacy Markets"..thats what our previous global markets are now. Bitcoin and crypto are the future..its here now.

I understand what you are saying, and I largely agree; however, it seems better to attempt to describe legacy and crypto as a likely transitional movement, and your punchline conclusion is likely going to be correct about the future - however, legacy is not going down without a fight and could take quite a long period to play out.

[Elwar]

So as to not get too excited about the price rise I would first go look at the 3day chart...then the 1 week chart...now I just watch the 1 month charge