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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 17, 2011, 01:57:36 AM

Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

Dead cat bounce on tue/wed should make you a few coins to offset your higher losses.  Ball of steel man, balls of steel.  But not a bad move so long as you intend to close at least some of that position.
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: October 17, 2011, 01:56:07 AM

Any optimists yet?

Oooh ooh me me!  I'm an optimist.  Just not at $3.  We'll talk again after capitulation and a recognizable up trend.  I'm willing to give up some potential profit not to buy in at the support level of a possible quintuple bottom (each one lower than the last) like the roaring bulls.

23  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series (Probability) Analysis on: October 17, 2011, 01:52:38 AM
What it means: if there actually *IS* someone preying on the weakness of BTC, tomorrow would be a good day to do some dumping.  I suspect there is no such entity, there's just *an* early adopter trying to cash out a few tens of thousand BTC.
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 16, 2011, 11:10:39 PM
Wanna get in on another pyramid?  RUC just started up ( see the thread in the alt cryptocurrencies ).  So far I'm batting 1000 hopping on every alternative currency early, trading for BTC early and cashing out to $ early.  Granted, this one is already 6000 blocks into existing and the exchange is up before a client is available but there is already more hashing power on that network than some of the 'top 10' BTC pools.

That's the unforseen danger to bitcoin.  75% of us got in at the bottom of the pyramid and have zero vested interest in making the "early adopters" multi-gajillionares.  If a more lucrative opportunity comes along we stop providing security for the current chain and hop on that one.  It won't take millions of dollars to torpedo bitcoin, a few hundred K providing a market for one of the alts will have enough mining power switch to make a 51% possible.  Especially if BTC prices are already soft.
25  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] RuCoin - Russian alternate cryptocurrency - exchange is up already! on: October 16, 2011, 10:58:01 PM
Wow, not bad.  Already a bigger hash rate for that chain than some pools in the bitcoin top 10.  I0C reboot, anyone?
26  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] RuCoin - Russian alternate cryptocurrency - exchange is up already! on: October 16, 2011, 10:25:47 PM
Bah.  Can't connect to that port from the US.  Web site is no problem, telnet to 8844 hangs forever.  Looks like it's a pretty exclusive club for now.

EDIT: must have been just DDoS protection, in and mining now.  Not bad, already on block 6000, 300k coins distributed.  Not an early adopter, but nothing like tenebrix or SC.  Gonna chance it, since my GPU miners are idle anyway.
27  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] RuCoin - Russian alternate cryptocurrency - exchange is up already! on: October 16, 2011, 10:00:38 PM
BXE, your Google translated Russian is an abomination.  I had to read that like 10 times before I could guess the intended message.

"The vodka is great, but the meat is terrible."

28  Economy / Speculation / Re: mtgox live is better than TV! on: October 16, 2011, 08:32:34 PM
I'm still expecting at least a 300% rally.  But not from $3 to $9, expecting that would be insane.  But $1 to $3 is within the realm of possible.
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why We Can't Let Go of Our Losers on: October 16, 2011, 08:29:50 PM
This is not capitulation, this is just more slow pain.  Capitulation would be deepbit going to around 200Mhash and the price diving to around a buck.  Nothing to see here, just more money being squeezed out of the dumber bulls.
30  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 15, 2011, 05:30:38 PM

Quote
But now we're at $3.9, there is actually quite a bit of room for the price to drop. If we speculate and say the actual value the economy can currently hold from real usage is around $1.5 - $2, then the price can still drop 50%. I think this is very much possible and that will not kill Bitcoin. There is one problem this does cause, which is a much less powerful mining network. Will it be too small to be secure enough? I hope the answer is no, but I don't know.


Now you see the light.  If bitcoin is trading significantly under average production cost long enough then miners WILL shut down.  Eventually.  They may even sell their existing stash out of disgust and psychological need to distance themselves from being wrong, pushing the prices even lower than they "should" be assuming rational actors.  Remember the lower the hash rate the longer difficulty takes to adjust down, and less feasible it is to mine at current as opposed to expected future difficulty.  If everyone flees at once bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to 51% attacks while transaction rate becomes stupid slow, decreasing the overall value of the network and driving the spiral further down.

Right now it'll take somewhere between 500k and 2 million dollars to destroy the bitcoin ecosystem.  If that drops to 50-200k the goal will be within reach of quite a few traders.  The question will become "Is there enough money left in bitcoin to attack it?" as opposed to "Is it feasible to attack bitcoin?"
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 15, 2011, 05:07:37 PM
There's no doubt in my mind bitcoin will have another 300% rally, possibly this year.  Just not from $3.  As pointed out, the technology has potential to be quite useful.

But that has nothing to do with price levels 75% of the current bitcoin ecosystem invested at.  We're still very much in the "denial" phase of post-bubble deflation.  I'm still bullish about current bitcoin prospects, just not at prices current bulls are willing to pay.

32  Economy / Speculation / Re: $3.68 is the new $4. on: October 15, 2011, 03:29:01 PM
Pfft. Pessimist.  I can still extract a few more hundred $ out of this pyramid before it catches fire and implodes.   There are *PLENTY* of bulls left.
33  Economy / Speculation / $3.20 is the new $3.68 on: October 15, 2011, 03:13:44 PM
I know it's probably been priced in, but with the recent difficulty drop if your cost basis for mining a coin was $1.80 it is now less than $1.60.  From the pricing action on mtgox it sure looks like lots of people have just factored that into their decision of mine-and-hold vs pay for power and hardware.
34  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Tenebrix, a CPU-friendly, GPU-hostile cryptocurrency on: October 15, 2011, 06:10:10 AM
if you run minerd in a vmware machine you can get up to 90% native performance, and almost 200% of those optimized windows miners. Your cpu has to support this though.

more so than just running it on the machine that would run VMware? I'm very interested in this...please elaborate. PM if you'd like.

What he's saying is the windows builds of minerd, especially the 32 bit windows builds don't run nearly as well as 64 bit linux builds.  So if you run a VM running 64 bit linux on 32 bit windows (virtualbox and apparently vmware support this if your CPU has the virtualization extensions) you can run the 64 bit linux minerd at 90% the speed it would run native if you were running 64 bit linux.  That turns out to be 2x as fast as a native windows 32 bit minerd.
35  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto X Change - Public message regarding alt chains on: October 15, 2011, 02:27:20 AM
I assume this board is free since there is no issue having the GG,TBX,LTC,FBX trolls post here?

All of those you mention are peer to peer (and as a bonus, open source) cryptocurrencies similar to bitcoin.  SC is a closed source, centralized exchange of... something, with the peer to peer component mostly as a faucet or smoke screen to hide its highly centralized nature.

In short, the others are alternate cryptocurrencies, while SC is not.
36  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Should there be a Litecoin exchange? on: October 15, 2011, 01:55:20 AM
I've already earmarked some of my early adopter tenebrix and SC winnings as funds for picking up cheap litecoins.  I don't care to provide a base, nobody has enough for a worthwhile "pump and dump."  Look at tbx $300 market depth for an idea of what happens when you get an exchange earlier than a coin establishes itself (albeit with a gargantuan premine). 

But if litecoin sell cheaper than I expect it will cost to mine them then yes, I'll buy.
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: The manipulator is back!!! on: October 15, 2011, 01:44:53 AM
No, it's only gets bad when his walls get sold into.  When he just moves them around that's a non-event.
38  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Tenebrix, a CPU-friendly, GPU-hostile cryptocurrency on: October 15, 2011, 01:43:20 AM
Pfft. for $80 in bitcoins you could run it back up to $.08 and change and feel rich on paper.  Price means nothing with only pocket change in depth.  Yup, you can play "the manipulator" in the TBX market with less than $100!
39  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] ! First Live, working, wonderful haha LiteCoin Pool! LTC! on: October 14, 2011, 09:35:04 PM
I love seeing
[2011-10-14 15:28:38] PROOF OF WORK RESULT: true (yay!!!)
[2011-10-14 15:28:39] LONGPOLL detected new block

That's like the 3rd block I've solved for the pool since joining.  Course, when I mine solo, it was 1 block in 24 hours.  And that an orphan. Sad


It's not a block.

AFAIK, when you're connected to a pool, that "true:YAY!" just confirms you submitted a valid share.

Yes, and I got a longpoll a second after I submitted that share.   What are the odds that my share was the one that won it since I keep showing up in the top stats?  I'd say pretty darn high. =)
40  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] ! First Live, working, wonderful haha LiteCoin Pool! LTC! on: October 14, 2011, 09:29:30 PM
I love seeing
[2011-10-14 15:28:38] PROOF OF WORK RESULT: true (yay!!!)
[2011-10-14 15:28:39] LONGPOLL detected new block

That's like the 3rd block I've solved for the pool since joining.  Course, when I mine solo, it was 1 block in 24 hours.  And that an orphan. Sad
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