BTC/USD volatility reached record lows in the past few weeks. It's started climbing, but it's still very low compared to historic values. It's easily comparable to other major currency pairs, and it's better than Gold (XAU/USD). This site doesn't show many of the major pairs, but given the closeness between the ones it does show, and the gap between, say, USD/EUR and GBP/AUD - I'd assume BTC/USD was way currently less volatile than GBP/AUD.

I was awake for the past few months, and it's only in the past week that BTC has broken out of the decreasing range it was in.

Yeah, I'm sorry. I'll stop.

Good good. And when you googled "traditional investments", what did you find? What did those other results from you googling "cash"+"invest" return?

(Incidentally, and this doesn't bother me but it does surprise me[1] - why do you make so many assumptions about things? I'm not bothering to challenge them because it really doesn't matter, and it'll just drag out a tedious process even more, but I'm genuinely curious. It's great you think I'm a pro, though.)

[1] It doesn't really.

70%? I assume it's based on pools - https://blockchain.info/pools. It's like, back in the day, saying that every (non-solo) miner comes from the Czech Republic because Slush's pool is the only pool. Except no one thought that, because obviously it would have been nonsense.

Really? What's the volatility of BTC/USD? What's the volatility of USD/JPY? What's the volatility of USD/EUR?

As a merchant, what problems have you had with volatility? Do these problems differ from other currencies? What options have you explored for mitigating volatility?

I did it on Bitfinex for a while, did OK. The return varies enormously - most of the time its tiny, and not worth it (I kept most of my investing stash of BTC away to avoid exchange-risk) but it spikes periodically (to ridiculously high levels) - that's when I'd pile in as much as I could, lend it for as long as I could, and then get out as the rate returned to the usual levels. I wouldn't recommend it full-time - the return is way too low - but targeting the rate spikes was at least quite profitable. At Bitfinex they take on the counter-party risk, so it's relatively risk-free (there's still the risk that Bitfinex itself collapses, or does a Gox, or something). As to whether I'd recommend it - I dunno. I spent a lot of time following rates, even when I wasn't invested.

I avoided normal lending sites, where the lender takes on counter-party risk and needs to worry about collateral.

I'm not sure I understand anymore what "stable" means. BTC/USD volatility is currently rising - from record-lows. It's (slightly) higher than the volatility of USD/EUR, but less volatile than XAU/USD. If stable means "never or rarely changing" - that's never going to happen.

Stability can easily be profitable. Outside the BTC world, traders sell straddles to profit from stability. Inside the BTC world it's entirely possible to do exactly that - there's at least one exchange where BTC options can be traded, and I'm fairly certain there's at least one poster here who'll trade options OTC.

(I'm totally not blaming you, RealBitcoin! I hope that's obvious. The list itself is awesome - it's the lack of available content for it that's the problem)

Absolutely. A few years back I was quite excited by cloud mining - I thought it might open up a whole new area of BTC investing. Now it looks like the real innovation there was finding a new way to present ponzis. Strange, given that many BTC users seem to view "ponzi" as a good thing! Even non-BTC types of investment - futures, options - seem to be very poorly represented. I guess part of that is regulation - a few exchanges have had their knuckles rapped for providing CFDs and swaps - so hopefully that'll change as exchanges reach compliance with their friendly local regulators... or they relocate to more innovation-friendly areas.

You shouldn't believe any predictions.

You should read any analysis that accompanies a prediction, and assess whether or not you agree with it. If there's no analysis - ignore the prediction. If you don't understand the analysis - ignore the prediction (this could easily be because the person making the prediction doesn't understand what they're doing).

Some people are better at analysis than others, but even then - they get it wrong sometimes. Do your own analysis as well. Just because someone has had good results in the past doesn't mean that they will in future - they could just have been lucky!

I'm sure I saw talks_cheep post something positive. Once. Maybe.

I think a correction is inevitable. Whether it's imminent, however, is much less certain. Analysis that goes significantly beyond "looking at the order books" would be useful... I trust order books about as much as most people trust the CNY exchanges. Or, for that matter, posts from posters whose past prophecies of doom have not come to pass.

Fairly certain Exurban's was a genuine misunderstanding - sig spammers tend not to engage with other posters when called out or questioned.

Sig spammers don't necessarily have signatures. Posters need to "level up" before sig campaigns will accept them - a lot of the sig spam comes from new users trying to reach the point where they'll get paid for their spam. I've been following a particular type of sig spam ("canned posts") - when I first raised it on meta most of these posts had sigs; since I posted I've been reporting these posts and they now tend not to have signatures (I don't know how ethical this is, but I've not been reporting posts without sigs - I figure let them waste time levelling-up, and once they start posting with a sig - report their posts, and wham.)

The list is disappointingly short - not a criticism of you, RealBitcoin, just a comment on the disappointing lack of innovation in the BTC community. ramesh770 mentioned starting their own site - obviously that wouldn't be investing with BTC, but entrepreneurs like this open up opportunities for the rest of us to invest with our BTC. BTC needs more innovators! I'd like to see more BTC derivatives available, but I secretly hope people will come up with entirely new ways to - safely - invest with BTC.

[1] Links in previous post, surprised you "missed" them. Here's Schwab again:


Barclays offer the same. A quick google for "cash" and "invest" should open up a whole new world to you. Hell, while you're at it, google "traditional investments". (They're all - IMO - poor investments, before you get your panties knotted, but see [3] below).

[2] You probably want to avoid Investopedia, it's a resource for lay-people with minimal experience. Entry-level stuff. You should also probably realise that I wasn't talking about fixed income funds. (Go back, re-read my posts - I'll wait).

[3] We're not talking about safe investments, good investments or bad investments. Remember - we're talking about your belief that "you invest with money, not in money". Your hobbies are not relevant here.

[4] Tell me what will and won't result in your butt being hurted, and I'll do my best to accommodate.

Well, I said apart from derivatives and bonds (I was trying to be helpful, honest), so I can't accept "government bonds" as an answer (I hope you'd realise that they're just a specific form of bond). No, I'm not suggesting that fixed income funds trade currencies (though obviously they will), I'm saying they hold currencies as an investment for their clients. Fixed income traditionally was investments for "widows and orphans" - low risk, cash and bonds, in a pre-derivative era. So that's BTC investors, widows and orphans now - you want to tell them their investment isn't an investment, or shall I?

(I'd really like to stay and find out about your interest in Jeffrey Dahmer, beanie babies, why you think I'm Ted E Bear (and your interesting views on how forums work), why you think I might lie about being a bad trader (and how my personal involvement with something might completely invalidate that thing if I wasn't really involved - sorry, I quoted your post before you edited to add that "K" part - but I caught it later and smiled, honest!), your other theories and how they all relate to the topic of investing in currencies, but it's late on Planet Earth and I need to head off. And I fear that rabbit-hole would be too deep.)

Edit: Tell these guys too. And Barclays too. And these guys should definitely know better.

My home country is Britain. You could probably work out "local currency" for yourself (but I repeat: it really isn't relevant).

That's a lie. I'm really a squirrel living in Basingstoke with a girl called Mary. But, that aside, it doesn't matter if it's true or false - sans specifics or no. Treat it as a hypothetical, or believe it - it really doesn't matter. It's a tangent, and if I'd been more accommodating to your quirks and idiosyncrasies I'd have anticipated you'd get confused by it and I'd not have complificated matters by raising it. Once again, I apologise.

So, back to the matter in hand. What else does that fixed income section invest in? And how do they acquire it? Third time I've asked, I'm beginning to think you're trying to avoid answering

Yes, very good, we all know what an index fund is. But what does that to do with the questions I asked you? Equities and fixed income are two very different things.

I'm not going to tell you what countries I've lived in. It's really not relevant, and frankly it's a little creepy that you'd even care. If you need to have a more concrete example, lets say I'm a Armenian who now lives in Belgium but used to live in China, and while there was posted to Djibouti. But honestly - none of this is relevant. I thought personalising it might help you understand. Perhaps I was wrong - I'm doing my best to accommodate your foibles, honest!

The local currency wasn't GBP, nor was it my home country's currency. (My home country at the time wasn't Britain, either, but that's not the point). Incredibly, my brief foray into the carry trade wasn't my only investment at that time but thank you for your investment advice - many years too late, mind, but interesting all the same. Beyond that we're back to your narrow definition of invest. Let me put it like this...

An investment management firm has a "fixed income" section. Besides derivatives and bonds, what else do you think they invest their clients money in? And how do you think they acquire it?

Many of those people who invested in BTC believe it to be money. It's traded as one half of a currency pair (or what resembles a currency pair). If you're saying - you are saying - that money can not be invested in, then you're telling such people that they haven't done what they believe they've done.

I did indeed trade forex. I had a trading account, and I traded the local currency for many others. Usually with poor results - I'm not a trader, but at the time I hadn't realised that. But eventually I ended up with lots of USD and not too much local currency. The local currency was borrowed, at what was then stupidly low rates, so I stuck the USD in a Eurodollar account in my home country, where the interest rate was a good bit higher (less than I'd have got in the US, but more than I was paying on the loan). The USD in my investment portfolio is the interest I earned on my investment - plus the interest I've earned since.

Beyond that, we're back to your narrow definition of "invest" [1], and your belief that I can only be replying to you because I'm someone else. Mate, honestly, forums don't work the way you think. Say something at random, and 0, 1, or any number of people may reply to you. Try it!

[1] Assuming you're sticking to it:

Well obviously, traders are traders. What I'm asking is - those people who invested in BTC - they didn't? And, while we're at it - the USD and EUR in my investment portfolio. Does that mean it's not an investment portfolio, or that I'm not allowed to have USD and EUR in it? Does it matter if the USD was acquired via an exchange, and the EUR was OTC?

(I hope it's OK to keep replying to you - I realise you hold certain unconventional beliefs about this and I may be overstepping the mark. If that condition you mentioned returns, let me know. I don't want to make it any worse.)

Ah, you're choosing one definition of a term to suit your purpose. Very clever!

So, what you're saying is - all these people who think they've been investing in BTC, they've not? Or does that only apply if they buy on an exchange, where (I think we all accept?) it's a zero-sum game? Or does it only apply to fiat currencies? This finance stuff is confusing.