let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.
you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger. it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.
b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.
But why will you move the coins in the first place??? for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows? we know it will occur. But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC? you don't have to do anything. the arb bots will take care of it for you. What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins? do you seriously think that when a SC is first established on Day 1, 1 scBTC = 1 BTC in fiat terms?. it can't be b/c of newness, less security, chance of failure, etc. with time, as it proves itself, the arb bots will equilibrate the price but at a lower level b/c of the always present risk of failure of the SC. the SC is not Bitcoin. Yes, the price will be the same in fiat terms as long as coins can flow freely between the chains. |
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let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.
you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger. it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.
b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.
But why will you move the coins in the first place??? for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows? we know it will occur. But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transfering them back to BTC? you don't have to do anything. the arb bots will take care of it for you. What??? Someone have to sell the cheap coins? |
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let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.
you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger. it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.
b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.
But why will you move the coins in the first place??? for experimentation, speculation, stupidity, pump and dump, who knows? we know it will occur. But why will you sell them for a lower price instead of transferring them back to BTC? |
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let me put it in simple terms w/o numbers.
you're taking a chunk of coin off a very secure ledger and moving them over to a less secure ledger. it's too be expected those coins moved will be worth less b/c they are now less secure.
b/c of arbitrage, you can expect the moved coin to drag down the price of the not moved coin to a lower equilibrium.
But why will you move the coins in the first place??? |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100.
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m) no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger. this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two. In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain. its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth. initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325. bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat. Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325? look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE. that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less. that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots. Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature e.g. fast confirmation. The key is 1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC but 1BTC on MC =! 1 scBTC on SC in fiat terms. and that is the result of less security being on a different blockchain/ledger. the equilibrium fiat price will be lower. Increased utility has to make up for less security if someone is willing to use the SC. The price will be the same with a two way peg. but that won't be proven right out of the box. it will take time, experimentation, and speculation on the SC before the market will "trust" the SC, if ever at all. in the meantime, expect the true value of 1 scBTC < 1 BTC. Someone have to believe increased utility on the SC makes up for less security. Otherwise, they won't transfer BTC to scBTC. They will not sell scBTC for a lower price than BTC is traded for because it's better to transfer scBTC back to BTC. |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100.
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m) no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger. this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two. In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain. its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth. initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325. bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat. Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325? look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE. that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less. that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots. Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature e.g. fast confirmation. The key is 1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC but 1BTC on MC =! 1 scBTC on SC in fiat terms. and that is the result of less security being on a different blockchain/ledger. the equilibrium fiat price will be lower. Increased utility has to make up for less security if someone is willing to use the SC. The price will be the same with a two way peg. |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100.
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m) no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger. this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two. In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain. its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth. initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325. bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat. Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325? |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100. $325
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower. yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.Why would anyone transfer coins to SC if the price is lower? |
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The Winklevoss will look like dumb shits next week at Money 2020.
 sure, they will look dumb as fuck for buying for 100 $ or less. They bought around $10 in 2012. |
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Are coins going into cold storage now instead of out of? If so, the price should start to climb soon.  (8 weeks average chart) |
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Make a mining heater, and I'll start mining. I spend some kW on heating anyway.
You would lose money heating with a miner. Any miner is a heater if you use it to heat with. Why would I lose money? It's like mining with free electricity since I'm using electricity for heating anyway. But I want a silent miner to have in my living room. |
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Make a mining heater, and I'll start mining. I spend some kW on heating anyway.
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I will leave this place soon. Bitcoin is dead, it's only down from here and i sold everything i got quite a while ago so there is nothing for me here anymore.
I tried to help the few delusional bulls who just won't give up but they don't appreciate my warnings very much. Ah well, your money. I don't care really.
I'll come back every 50 dollar drop for some entertainment. So long and thanks for buying my coins at 400. Poor schmucks.
Good luck with your pump and dump coin.
So we won't see you when price is above $300 any more? Sounds good to me. |
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How many coins do the Winklis actually own? 200-500k?
200k(500k) * 500$ = 100 000 000 (250 000 000$) capacity.
200k(500k) * 1000$ = 200 000 000 (500 000 000$) capacity.
Not that much $ for an ETF IMHO.
They have a little over 100k. When the ETF goes live they will need to buy coins at the open market to satisfy the demand of wall street  |
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Bitcoin is controlled by math and algorithms while Fiat is controlled by governments and banks.
That's why people should trust Bitcoin more than Fiat.
My shitcoin is also controlled by math. Trust my shitcoin I trust it. But I want to use the coin that most people use. Bitcoin is most useful to me. |
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The bitcoin price is finally stable.
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Gold at 4 year low.  |
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