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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2021973 times)
NewLiberty
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November 01, 2014, 11:51:45 AM
 #15141

...
alarm bells should be going off in all Bitcoin holders heads right now.  this isn't right even if the SC concept were valid, which i don't think it is.

Alarm bells went of in my head when Gavin visited the CFR and would not commit to transparency.  Then when he got back he wouldn't even give a debriefing about what went down.

Long before that alarm bells went off in my head about Hearn (who you seem to have  a man crush on for some reason) who has tried every thing he can to get Bitcoin under control of TPTB.  Unlimited growth, 'red'listing, positive ID through mainstream passports, etc, etc.

When Gavin newly proposed exponential blocksize growth that sealed it for me.  He did some good stuff back before he became 'principle scientist' and started the Bitcoin Foundation, but I've seen nothing since then.  Even his dev priorities when he did seem to have his head in more or less the right place have done very little to actually strengthen the solution.  I dunno what his trip is, but I'm convinced that it is not good for Bitcoin or my stash.

As for the Blockstream guys, making a living off an open-source project is very common and most often benefits both the community and the clients who will pay them.  You may be serious in trying to spin this thing as something nefarious, but in that case you are just showing more of you ignorance.

The point is less that "it happens all the time", and more that SC are potentially competition for Bitcoin as much as they are collaboration with Bitcoin.
How many of your competition work in the core engine of your business, and how comfortable are you with that notion?

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November 01, 2014, 02:59:14 PM
 #15142

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
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November 01, 2014, 03:10:33 PM
 #15143

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY
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November 01, 2014, 03:12:51 PM
 #15144

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.
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November 01, 2014, 03:14:50 PM
 #15145

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.

Why would anyone transfer coins to SC if the price is lower?
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November 01, 2014, 03:17:54 PM
 #15146

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
inca
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November 01, 2014, 03:19:43 PM
 #15147

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.

But the 'two way peg' in the example you describe won't happen in reality cypherdoc. Why the price arb at all? Anyone buying SCBTC for less than BTC on an open exchange can simply send them back to the main chain and sell bitcoin and profit. Then buy more SCBTC, transfer them back to the main chain and sell them. Repeat ad infinitum. If the market prices SCBTC lower than btc then all SCBTC not in use for an actual purpose will migrate back to the main chain. It doesn't follow there will be a price change in bitcoin as a result, in my mind at least.

OK i can see that selling bitcoin could depress the price. But that process would result in the coins migrating back to the main chain so I don't think it makes much sense as an argument against sidechains.
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November 01, 2014, 03:20:01 PM
 #15148

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.
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November 01, 2014, 03:20:36 PM
 #15149

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.

Bitstamp is sidechain controlled by central server. Is bitcoin from bitstamp worth only $100 ?
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November 01, 2014, 03:22:25 PM
 #15150

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.

Bitstamp is sidechain controlled by central server. Is bitcoin from bitstamp worth only $100 ?

i can see your analogy but i don't think it's appropriate.  it's an exchange where all Bitcoiners look to as a reference point for price discovery as well as getting in and out of BTC.  that is not the situation in a leeching SC.
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November 01, 2014, 03:22:56 PM
 #15151

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.
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November 01, 2014, 03:26:24 PM
 #15152

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

equilibrium price ends up lower than $325
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November 01, 2014, 03:27:48 PM
 #15153

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?
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November 01, 2014, 03:29:03 PM
 #15154

why?  b/c SC's have decreased the overall security in the system by encouraging MM.
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November 01, 2014, 03:31:22 PM
 #15155

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.
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November 01, 2014, 03:33:23 PM
 #15156

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.

I think kupsi has nailed it..

I share your concerns with regard to a side chain potentially damaging bitcoin if there is a floating peg between the two.
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November 01, 2014, 03:33:59 PM
 #15157

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.

Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature  e.g. fast confirmation. The key is   1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC
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November 01, 2014, 03:35:22 PM
 #15158

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100. $325

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY

it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower.  yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.

Bitstamp is sidechain controlled by central server. Is bitcoin from bitstamp worth only $100 ?
Not 100, but certainly less than true value.
LocalBitcoin price says that Bitstamp trades at a discount.
There is a rumor circulating that Bitcoin is a P2P technology.

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November 01, 2014, 03:37:13 PM
 #15159

simple theory question for all SC proponents.  so simple in fact what am i missing?

we have 13M BTC @ around $325.  SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration).  we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc.  let's say price starts off @ $100.

why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower?  multiply this by 1000 SC's.

Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m)

no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger.  this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two.

In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain.

its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth.

initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325.  bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat.

Why would anyone sell scBTC for $100 when they can transfer them to BTC and sell them for $325?

look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE.  that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less.  that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots.

Yes SC is LESS SECURE, but SC allow you trade bitcoins or SC will add diferent feature  e.g. fast confirmation. The key is   1 BTC on MC = 1 BTC on SC

but 1BTC on MC =! 1 scBTC on SC in fiat terms. and that is the result of less security being on a different blockchain/ledger.

the equilibrium fiat price will be lower.
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November 01, 2014, 03:39:12 PM
 #15160

in fact, is this what the market is pricing in now since the announcement?
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