I can't stand that sentiment.

First of all, who even knows who bitcoiners are?  Bitcoin Twitter is an echo chamber.  And if you want "Crypto Twitter" then there are plenty of Laura Shin type folks to listen to.

Also what's the difference between telling someone that ETH is a scam, and wagging your finger at "toxic" people?  Isn't it really the same thing?

To be honest I am starting to see that line as scam grease.  No need to critisize folks who take the maxi line unless they threaten you, and I think what they threaten is a way he wants to make money.

I get sick of the HFSP shit too to be honest.  But a bunch of dweebs on twitter have absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin adoption.

If he's really autistic, then he may not be exactly brimming with empathy.

Not to mention that if you ask me the Tether news was also really kinda negative, though it's been a bit of a sleeper.  They pretty much admitted to being fractional.

But how many of them can't tell either?

Well when you put it like that it looks like 2014 again...

I suggest chilling out on the begging.  And by chilling out I mean stop it.  It is frowned upon here...

Good to see you anyway.  Though not so good to see McMuskee.  Eew.

Musk really does have feminine facial features.

But wait... where is your prediction?!??

Quoting to say: lot's of good analysis.

Wait what?

Your WHAT?!?

Shit.  It IS the altpocalypse as foretold by the... by the... well whoeverthehell is foretelling it.

The "it's different this time", and "bitcoin will not survive this" narratives are STRONG, currently.

Choo Choo mothafucka. 

We'll make sure he knows... 🎢🐂🐂🐂

Well..

Would ya look at that!

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2SlIcQBBaPG58V7gjVBcri?si=b7e9t9w6QeS-yIAviL1j2g

If you are anti-spotify then look for Bitcoin Audible Read #527.

It's super-special!

You are entirely incorrect as to what "side" you perceive me to be on, although that does not really matter.  The side I am MOST on happens to be supporting the peaceful Jews and Muslims.

What I said was intentionally free from taking sides either explicitly or implied.

I very precisely chose my words to communicate EXACTLY what I meant.

If you read it again slowly, and leave out any interpretations other than "THIS IS THE WRONG PLACE FOR THIS DISCUSSION" then you might end up with a more accurate picture of what I meant.

I would respectfully ask that the participants take the Israel/Palestine conversation AWAY from this thread... I am sure a thread can be found right between the Abortion and Trump discussions.  

I agree it is a very important discussion to have.

Elsewhere.

Please let us get back to hating on Elon, thankyouverymuch.

It happened on twitter, that I know. I just can't find it

I swear they put some money to it, but here was where they were starting to compare models etc:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1220357903779008512

And someone mentioned the bet here:
https://twitter.com/Bizniz203/status/1370834342516117505

But I cannot find the bet...  Maybe it was just a handshake, but I swear they put 1BTC or something... hmm.

I am just gonna be a jerk and say if a bearish BSVer wins this because of the apocalypse or whatever the payout should be in their "real bitcoin": 0.077BSV

But the Dude is not an asshole like me...

You know.. In this journey we have all met so many different folks.  Those here on this forum, like old friends, some strange class of unlikely comrades.

Sometimes it boggles my mind that we are so lucky to be here.  Not just because of the obvious reason... but this really is a strange and motley pile of folks.  We are lucky to know each other, even virtually.

I cannot help but think from time to time, if bitcoin is not destroyed by Elon, how this forum (or an archive of it) will be scoured over by our curious descendants as they wonder what it felt like to be in our shoes.  As some judge us for not seeing what seems obvious to them, or in fact how we were able to.  Perhaps it is arrogance in the extreme, to think we matter.  But I do.  I have said it before... I think one day folks will be reading these threads to relive what we lived through.  To see what it was like to live through this.

I doubt they will be able to get it 100%.  They will think it should have been easy to hold through all the waves.  But of course they will be very wrong.  Though it has been for some of us, and those of us here for longer have sustained mind boggling gains and losses.

My "real life" friends and acquaintances have no idea at all.  Part of the reason they do not know is I will not tell them because I learned early on (2012-2015ish?) that part of the reason they would not be here is they could NOT handle what we handle.  The vast majority of folks wash out.  I am not trying to sound arrogant.  Maybe something is WRONG with us that we can stand it, lol.  But they even project their ideals.  There is this one guy I think of in particular.  Love the fellow.  But he called me a fool so many times as I help through peaks and valleys.  Smart guy.  IT professional.  Made sure to let me know over and over that I should listen to him, and not lose it all.  That I had been stupidly lucky, but I would evidently hold it all until it was worthless and miss a chance to benefit because I was too stupid to see the obvious writing on the wall.

We do not talk about Bitcoin any more when we see each other now. Ha.  Partly because he is tired of trying to "fix" me, and I imagine partly because he is mad that, at least at this point, it has turned out I was right. I told him he should buy some bitcoin when it was ~$20.

I have quit telling people that.

Even today while all my friends are now making sure I admit publicly I missed the boat on Doge, and am not as smart after all am I?  (Although I did do a rare purchase of it yesterday because I happened to see the Coinbase news right when it happened... I actually locked in a quick 25%.  Such Rare!)

And I am steeling myself for the coming onslaught of "When are you going to get rid off a'l that evil bitcoin that is boiling the oceans" questions.

You guys are the only ones that get it.

I know we disagree on various things... but we are family now.  We have lived through glorious fortune and mind boggling losses together.  Some of us have been destroyed by it all, and some have flourished, and we have helped each other along the way...

And then there is The Dude.  Posting his pump truck meme and running contests.

Future people?  If you actually read this JJG length post?  He is (was?) an important one of us.  He is a pure representation of the hope and goodness that we have all striven to have.  He represents what is best about us.  Joy, generosity, and a resolute bullishness that even the least of us has experienced on this journey...  He was (is!) well worth knowing.  There is a reason he got all the "merits".

Hahaha, yeah y'all wish you were here.  How much is that 0.077BTC contest he is currently running worth now?  I have a feeling it will buy a modest house someday.

Of course I would LOVE for his S2Fx model to be correct... It has me living on an island WAY earlier than my plan, lol.  But this could also be where it just breaks.  This one and the more conservative one... 

Anyone following the bet between he and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter?  Dave is MUCH more conservative and I think his dominant long term model is more of a softening parabola, and frankly I think according to his tea leaves we may have already peaked in this "cycle".  He and PlanB have some bet revolving around 100k or not, I think.

Honestly I think both of them are clever folks with interesting models, that will be absolutely true, until they are not.  Between them, and out own Toxic and his charts of zen, I have more than enough math-magic to consume and confuse me into just holding.   It's win/win I think.

Dude, your generous spirit and kind heart are things I can even feel from continents away...  I do hope one day to sit with you and share a drink.  Also maybe to play some poker, though I do not think I stand much chance there...

It's been a while since I have played one of these. This is more of a "turbo" as we are talking about a very short timeframe.  Our current bull is in a stalled/consolidation phase.  This could EASILY continue and BTC could be at 0 change +/- 5% as some here are predicting.  But I am going to take a bet that the Elon pop is analagous to one of the moving average touchdowns from previous bull markets, and we should shortly see the price moving up again from here.  I am going to use this time frame from Sep-Oct 17 as am analog for May-June 21.



This represents a 1.875x gain in that month timeframe.

Using ~47k as a bottom that puts us at 88125

Now let us consider the previous touchdown from 17 in July...



In that timeframe we saw a 2.27x rise.

Using ~47k as a bottom that puts us at 106830.

Now... Some models take into account that each bull market has a smaller raw increase than the last.  Using voodoo I can say 2 halvings ago might have shown a 36x rise (~30-1100), the last halving a 18x (1100-20k), so lets assume we halve the multiple again. 

We shall apply that scale difference by taking my two numbers above, average them and then divide the difference by half and adding that to the approximate touchdown price this time around, and voila there is our number:

(((106830+88125)/2-47000)/2)+47000=

72239