Think of it when BTCiTcoin is a few million, Litecoin is 100K, then DigiByte is not that special at 12k. LOLCOPTER. So in other words since Bitcoin is a "few million" it means nothing that digibyte is 12k. Funny thing about that is that few millions would have to be ~10MM before bitcoin would even be EQUAL to the market cap of Digibyte at 12k. So obviously savetherainforest hates math. He also seems to be OK imagining worlds in which digital assets have suddenly become worth MUCH MORE than all the money in the world. This means he hates logic, along with math. And it is beyond a fantasy... so I would say he hates reality as well.
Would 7 million US dollars BTC would sound reasonable ??  I don't hate math. I just know that everyone will keep their coins locked into some safe like some tight pussy in a prison. And people will have some kind of 'burn' ~shiba-like mechanic to keep them locked and earn interest in fiat or another crypto for the simple reason that they are not dumping and they must be rewarded.  So taking that into consideration, 7 million would be without inflation. With all the helicopter money it would be $79 MILLION !!! So.... if I go from a penny to 12K seems reasonably good then going from 60K to 7 mill or 79 mill even...  ... Lets just say for simplification it would be from 70k to 7 mill... that would be an 100x ... or 79 mil .... 1000x .... But from 0.05 to 12.000 .... that's like 240.000x so f^ck the 1000x that's for poor people with BTCiTcoin. I need the Trololololz moneyz. ... If any hasn't observed... I'm here for the memes... who said I don't like meme coins? THey are outrageous. Hail to the new Chaos overlords.  You seem to have this habit of just randomly throwing out numbers and then drawing conclusions based on those numbers, and then calling wishful thinking reasonable. Your reasoning above boils down to: I can't make astronomical gains on BTC anymore so I need to find a cryptocurrency for which that could happen. And you throw in some things about banks taking over Bitcoin to justify the fantasy and then play some really weird shell game with the numbers so that the money you have will be enough to make you as rich as you want to be. People here who are much better at rational thought have pointed out several times that your ideas are cockeyed nonsense, I wish you no ill, but avoiding Bitcoin to find the next 240000 x will be, in hindsight, a very bad mistake. Back on ignore you go... good luck with the slot machines. Are you sure the R-Word doesn't apply to him? Pretty sure. What's the name of someone who has taken so many hallucinogens that they can no longer reason clearly? I probably came close to that one myself... but I think he's way over that line. |
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Think of it when BTCiTcoin is a few million, Litecoin is 100K, then DigiByte is not that special at 12k. LOLCOPTER. So in other words since Bitcoin is a "few million" it means nothing that digibyte is 12k. Funny thing about that is that few millions would have to be ~10MM before bitcoin would even be EQUAL to the market cap of Digibyte at 12k. So obviously savetherainforest hates math. He also seems to be OK imagining worlds in which digital assets have suddenly become worth MUCH MORE than all the money in the world. This means he hates logic, along with math. And it is beyond a fantasy... so I would say he hates reality as well.
Would 7 million US dollars BTC would sound reasonable ?? I don't hate math. I just know that everyone will keep their coins locked into some safe like some tight pussy in a prison. And people will have some kind of 'burn' ~shiba-like mechanic to keep them locked and earn interest in fiat or another crypto for the simple reason that they are not dumping and they must be rewarded. So taking that into consideration, 7 million would be without inflation. With all the helicopter money it would be $79 MILLION !!! So.... if I go from a penny to 12K seems reasonably good then going from 60K to 7 mill or 79 mill even... ... Lets just say for simplification it would be from 70k to 7 mill... that would be an 100x ... or 79 mil .... 1000x .... But from 0.05 to 12.000 .... that's like 240.000x so f^ck the 1000x that's for poor people with BTCiTcoin. I need the Trololololz moneyz. ... If any hasn't observed... I'm here for the memes... who said I don't like meme coins? THey are outrageous. Hail to the new Chaos overlords. You seem to have this habit of just randomly throwing out numbers and then drawing conclusions based on those numbers, and then calling wishful thinking reasonable. Your reasoning above boils down to: I can't make astronomical gains on BTC anymore so I need to find a cryptocurrency for which that could happen. And you throw in some things about banks taking over Bitcoin to justify the fantasy and then play some really weird shell game with the numbers so that the money you have will be enough to make you as rich as you want to be. People here who are much better at rational thought have pointed out several times that your ideas are cockeyed nonsense, I wish you no ill, but avoiding Bitcoin to find the next 240000 x will be, in hindsight, a very bad mistake. Back on ignore you go... good luck with the slot machines. |
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I value freedom of speech. As a natural right, and as a value in private conversations like this one. Obviously this is a moderated thread, and off topic things can rightly be removed if Mr. Info so deems. And Jay (or whomever) can lamabst the things they thing are stupid, like shitcoin talk. And *personally* I think a little shitcoin talk is acceptable. Within reason. Particularly insofar as it intersects with Bitcoin mechanically, price wise, or in some other way. And if someone wants to call someone else a "retard". Well... I find that to be childish, and in generally bad taste. As we are equating a stupid opinion with someone with mental defects, which is not really fair to those who suffer from that condition. But, that too... is, I believe the right of the speaker. And again, my right to vocally opine on as well, if I wish... However... We seem to have devolved quickly, and the quality of our discussion is suffering. Just a couple nit-picks: It has been rightly pointed out that savetherainforest is imagining a world in which digibyte could have a market cap of 180 trillion dollars. Which is roughly TWO TIMES the value of all fiat money (both printed and on balance sheets). That in itself is wildly stupid. But the reasoning behind it? Think of it when BTCiTcoin is a few million, Litecoin is 100K, then DigiByte is not that special at 12k. LOLCOPTER. So in other words since Bitcoin is a "few million" it means nothing that digibyte is 12k. Funny thing about that is that few millions would have to be ~10MM before bitcoin would even be EQUAL to the market cap of Digibyte at 12k. So obviously savetherainforest hates math. He also seems to be OK imagining worlds in which digital assets have suddenly become worth MUCH MORE than all the money in the world. This means he hates logic, along with math. And it is beyond a fantasy... so I would say he hates reality as well.
But calling him "retarded"? That is not fair to people with mental disabilities. Seriously. It is too insulting to them to suggest they could imagine something that unrealistic. I have a friend with Downs syndrome. He LOVES WATCHES. And know lots about them. He also LOVES the Dallas cowboys. And his Cowboys watch is one of his most prized possessions. He would never say something so stupid as the above. We have devolved in here... and it is up to us to try to get the train back on the tracks. I doubt savetherainforest has any chance of being fixed. Those ideas are so beyond ridiculous. But at least the rest of us can try to avoid these tar pits. Lol. |
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Math and science. With proudhon's ridiculously bad predictions, I'd rather believe a drunken whore to tell me the future of Bitcoin. Well yeah... but it seems like every time Llama Llama posts his repetitive math and science bitcoin going down..... blah blah etc, silliness, bitcoin pumps. And we all know he holds a boatload. Think about it..... Don't think so hard... it spoils the art. |
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It don’t look too good after 2018 vs BTC. Lol. And it’s a long term trend too. I think it’s time to start living with the fact that Fluffy could be right when he used the beta vs VHS comparison... That better tech doesn’t mean automatic win.
You analysis might be right... but that last phrase. "That better tech doesn’t mean automatic win." That is a black and white statement that sort of puts Monero in a fight against Bitcoin. Early in the history of this project the community did not see Monero as particularly the successor to bitcoin, but instead as a compliment to it. After all there are MANY strong advantages to a cryptocurrency project with a transparent ledger. Likewise there are arguments for a project whose base layer is obfuscated. But in more recent years the monero community has become more and more like the BCASH community with some of the devs, also being more vocal about Monero really being the replacement to Bitcoin. A lot of the same talking points worked their way over to Monero... Bitcoin isn;t p2p cash, there needs to be an adjustable blocksize, without perpetual inflation bitcoin is doomed. In essence: Monero is the successor to Bitcoin. This is a sentiment that I believe has done great damage to the monero community. It has turned the community into just another shitcoin like Ripple (The banks will use it!), or nano (fees will kill Bitcoin) or BSV (the sky is orange! Well yeah.. BSV is a fucking trainwreck). Monero is "The coin you thought Bitcoin was" or Betamax to Bitcoin VHS. But luckily the community is not really that relevant when it comes to Monero's continued leadership of the privacy sector of crypto. Monero has fallen to #40 on Coinmarketcap. Why? Well that's easy. The narrative just doesn't matter to anyone any more. Monero really NEVER positioned itself as a way to make early investors rich. (The community has taken that BCASH slogan as well that Bitcoin is just "NGU tech" and therefore evil). It does not have the scammy fundamentals necessary to be best in class as far as the scams do. Shuiba Inu is doing real well there with however many trillions of coins issued... But Monero hold the VERY UNIQUE position of being a distributed digital currency with an actual reason to exist. It is the fairest project that is also best in class for privacy. And there are some really nice design choices that might just contribute to it's continued success. Like the perpetual reward, and the convertable block size. This is what makes it valuable. Period. The ONLY thing that will increase the price of an asset like Monero is more demand. Econ 101. And the demand for get rich quick garbage is outstripping it handily. As well as whiz-bang digital rube goldberg machines. Monero does not need to displace Bitcoin to be valuable. It never could anyway. Because bitcoin is WAY BETTER AT WHAT IT DOES than Monero could be. AND it was first, yes. But if Monero is as useful as I think it is (in contrast to something like Shibu?) then it is severely undervalued. So I believe it goes up in value again... someday. it might take a while for people to get it... And frankly? Bitcoin is the better store of value. Monero is good for transacting with.... so if you don;t hold much, who cares about the charts? Right. We want it to go up. Yeah me too. And I think it will. It really has to. |
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So I grabbed six small pieces back.
Will buy more dip if it comes.
When I buy dip is is always buy and hodl it.
I have three accounts for that.
I always hodl and have never sold any BTC from those accounts .
Those 3 accounts are BTC buy dip and hodl only.
My exit plan on them is sell at 70 years old.
until then buy dips and hodl.
Next dip level to buy is 55555.55
I think you will change your mind on that bold part. What will you be selling them for? How many "things" will you need? Unless you are in your late 60s now and 70 is only a couple years away, I do not think THAT part of your plan makes a lot of sense. |
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So eventually Bitcoin has zero flow, at least of NEW stock. And here's the interesting bit (to me) with a constrained block (Even if it is 1000x bigger than it is today) we have a limit on the amount of fees that can be charged. So many things I want to write but my brain is not working well enough to lay it out sensibly. But the things we are looking at are: 1. Eventually everything is priced in Bitcoin, and 21MM units represents the value of everything on earth. 2. Even considering fees as the continued flow after the subsidy is under a certain point, and even considering consensus allows some large block size increases eventually... The world has never seen what we are talking about here... Good grief I hope I can live long enough to really see this pop... lol... We have no idea. |
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I knew a devastating crash was coming!
Really they just keep happening over and over! |
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Meh... I don't really think this is a thing.. and the volume on this ant-dip is too small...  |
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All this price action... But so little retail volume.
This is incredibly bullish in my opinion.
Who is buying?
Not a lot of people? Neither retail nor institutional is showing any decent volume right now as price continues to move upwards. The relevance is there is a lack of sellers in the market right now, hence very low supply on exchanges at the moment. Imagine what happens when there is buying pressure  Bullish That's my point. But Something (someone, someones?) is vacuuming all the chips off the exchanges. They are not being sold, but withdrawn. So either the OTC market knows how to hook up whales with shadowy buyers, or the exchanges themelves are going short. There is no situation I can think of where this does not absolutely explode up. The ONLY scenario I can think of that is not bullish is a coordinated attack at the nation state level where they quietly buy huge positions with the intent to dump them on retail and crash the price of bitcoin. That idea is all but tinfoil hat insanity. It IS true that bitcoin stands to be majorly manipulated via the retail exchanges... but for some reason no one is trying that, and it looks very strongly that large positions are being taken (as they have been being for over a year now) behind the scenes. And we are running our of cheap coins. Hodl. (I never say that... but I am invoking it as a spell now...) |
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All this price action... But so little retail volume.
This is incredibly bullish in my opinion.
Who is buying?
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... S2F breaks when we get hyperbitcoinisation
... noone knows when that might happen
... probably longer than you think but not as long as you might imagine
Damnit Marcus. You just summed up probably 50 posts and thousands of words I have typed. I should just make that my new sig. |
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For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets. Well said. Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less …. Yeah same... I guess different people have different thresholds for this... I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar. I *guess* it will be like the last... painful, but part of the ride. Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life. But it is not easy for me yet. We are at the same level of thinking and experience over this matter I guess Have you ever considered the stake of poker we are playing at the "Bitcoin Table"? I know for sure you've played higher stakes poker than me... but if we translate our Bitcoin bankrolls into a buy-in. Pretty big game huh? One thing I want to do before I die, and more likely in the next 2-7 years is enter some WSOP events with my bitcoin "roll"... Maybe even the main event. Though I am not sure I have the stamina (or skill) to have much chance in that one! |
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For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't really care anymore about future bear markets. Well said. Very well said…. Though I would less enjoy it …. Way less …. Yeah same... I guess different people have different thresholds for this... I honestly do not know how I will react to the next bear if we have one historically similar. I *guess* it will be like the last... painful, but part of the ride. Bitcoin (and poker) have taught me to handle loss well in life. But it is not easy for me yet. |
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By the way, several times in the past year or perhaps even longer, I personally have been suggesting if the top is really damned high for this cycle.. such as going to $1.5 million-ish (of course not very high odds of it happening), then the subsequent draw down is going to be greatly brutal in terms of percentages, but if we end up having a somewhat whimpy top that might ONLY get into the $100ks or $200ks, then it would hardly make any sense to experience a draw down of 80%+-ish.. even though we know that anything in bitcoin is possible, so what actually ends up happening does not have any kind of "has to make sense" prerequisite.
This idea has only briefly graced my consciousness. But it is interesting indeed. The idea that it's not that the drawdown will be as dramatic this time, but that the bull goes further than we would guess... Conventional wisdom suggest the days of 100 baggers are in the rear view, but your 1.5mm is still a 75x run from the last bull. Giving us a top that looks more like the early increases than more recent ones. The fun part is we could have an 80% drawdown that sends us to *only* 300k in this scenario. lol. I love this idea being true... well sort of. Because the sheer amount of capital I will "lose" in that scenario is mind boggling. Lol. I mean we are talking THOUSANDS of dollars. This idea also could fit the "s curve" sort of model. And I think there is a good non-zero, but small chance it pans out that way. I would be neeto. And in this scenario I am in Torques "it just doesn't matter anymore OG" category in which I can sell just a little corn to finance "life changing" types of things like ranches and racetracks without endangering most of my capital... so here's to that one happening. Now, as to you interpretation of my positions. I think you are pushing me further into a polarity than I am comfortable being in. For example, I am NOT railing against PlanB's model, or feeling that it HAS TO BREAK. And like you said most of my positions actually line up with his. I do not have any need to disprove it or anything like that. I am very comfortable in the grey world. Poker taught me this. I think in numbers of possible universes... not just "this one", and "not this one". Another way to talk about that model... is it does not take into account things that are outside of it. I think that reality is one reason he made his cross asset version. Because the original S2F model is all about the very pure numbers of only bitcoin. But if bitcoin starts competing with other stores of value then we also have to consider the effect of that. Bitcoins S2F is similar to golds now, I think. So by that measurement it deserves a 10x just to be correctly valued (which gets us almost halfway to your 1.5mm land). But when you consider it also would be competing with real estate, bonds, collectables etc... the pie just got WAY bigger. This is where I think the original S2F model breaks to the upside. PlanB was smart to have a second model waiting up there to catch it so he can say "See? My OTHER model was right". |
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I also think there could be a time coming when OUR crop of "OG"s are going to be tempted to move out "at the top" and then be surprised to learn that the pullback we saw was shallower than we have figured and we lose our stake somewhat. I think a max pain scenario for Bitcoin OGs is still on the horizon.
I think we may be beyond this now. For most true Bitcoin OGs, an 80% draw down from some future ATH means they are still rich and will likely stay all in btc, essentially forever (BYOB). They won't care anymore about bear markets. Maybe I am worried about the next wave as opposed to OGs.. I dunno. You have a point. I've been through every one, and 2017 hurt pretty bad, but i didn't sell then, and I am not going to this time either. I don't think. But what I mean is after living through X number of boom/bust scenarios some people will be MOST tempted to try to time the market and sell x amount at what they think the top is with the plans to buy back in a X % drop. The chorus of "Are you guys gonna take some profits this time instead of living through the crash again? have you learned your lesson?" seems louder than ever... If I were to fall in this trap it would be for a significant sum of value, but not a large percentage of my holdings. This is in line with what you are saying... but I could still take a pretty nice haircut if what I think could happen happens. We see what looks like a blow off top. Let's put it's peak at $320k (lol why not?). And we see it drop hard... like 20%. On the climb back up we sell X%. We were right!!! It drops again.. big one... these are dead cat bounces. We don't want to lose so we set a conservitive target of say a 40-50% drawdown. Bitcoin makes it back down to $180k, consolidates there ans begins to climb. We've not reached out target, but we will. We have seen this movie like 4 times now. But we were wrong. The world is onto us this time. And EVERYONE is buying the dip. Not only did our 80% drawdown only do 40% this time, but we are headed to a new ATH it seems? And that's weird.. we are actually not quite to the next halving even!??!? Well shit. I just gave up a *insert item of great value, lambo, house, whatever* for that attempt... That's kind of what I see as possible. Or? We go to 320, and crash back down to 60k just like all the times before.. for one more time? |
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Bob... somebody. Stop me from spinning up a clightning node to go with my LND node... Good grief I am about to do this. why? why?  Hehehe  |
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Well gosh cAPSLOCK, we do have to measure the extent to which any potential audience might be receptive to talking about various kinds of discussions of what makes bitcoin a special investment, and if you might not be inclined to bring up the topic (largely because you have already been down some aspect of that road), and if they are not wanting to talk about those kinds of matters, then surely there might not be any kind of mutual interest in the topic. There are likely a decent number of status quo well-to-do folks who are ongoingly feeling that they have a sufficient amount of extra cashflow that it does not really matter to them. They cannot really see their properties or equities going down, so they feel that they are sufficiently hedged.. and sure they might not feel comfortable with nearly everything at retail (especially bigger ticket items) seeming to have price doubling issues.. but yeah, that may well be transitory - and just like Biodom mentioned, there are a lot of people (including Biodom his lil selfie) who believe that we are going through a time that is not really very much different from the 70s... we just have to get through it... and the rich will continue to fair well (at least that is what they believe).. and many of the costs of the various struggles are going to be borne by poorer folks in a variety of scattered ways.. which has historically been allowed to happen..
Oh by the way, this time around, the USA (dollar) is able to get away with causing the poor of the whole world to bear the costs of the money printing (since the dollar is way more dominant these days) rather than in the 70s, we were living in a more nationalized dollar situation.. so of course, having the whole world bear the irresponsibilities monetary policies behind the dollar does provide way more runway.. but a lot of the is irresponsibility is going to be recognized and appreciated higher and higher up the socio-economic ladder.. and surely the status quo rich (including those in decently great status quo positions of cashflow) might not appreciate the bottom up empowerment that bitcoin provides (and that those status quo elite would benefit more from getting in early, too.. rather than waiting another cycle or two.. or however long it takes before it starts to sink in their status quo elite noggens).
One more by the way, is that I have a good friend from childhood who has done really well for himself in terms of his business and his investment into a decent number of properties... My historical conversations with him seem similar to the kinds of conversations that you have been having with your exec friends.. .. they do not see it.. their investments are doing well.. their cashflow is way more than they need.. and it is nearly like talking to a brick wall in terms of broaching the investment thesis of bitcoin topic with them... you can give the best of arguments and presentations, and they just do not see bitcoin as any kind of meaningful hedge.. even putting something as low as 1% into bitcoin.. from their point of view, it would be better to buy property or equities with that 1%.. rather than screwing around with something so faddish (already had a big run) like bitcoin... that's part of the reason why we still have only about 1% of the world invested in bitcoin and even in the most bitcoin savey of areas (tech maybe?) in the USA, you are still likely only in the 5% arena, at best (not referring to the hoarders like Saylor who get it.. they do not take up a large percentage of the population even if they are engaged in ongoing hoarding of bitcoin practices).
Yeah. I wanted to talk about Cuban more than Bitcoin, because he seems to be SO INCREDIBLY wrong on the topic. And kind of embarrassing. I don't know if you followed the Twitter space, or the dick measuring stuff that led up to it, but it was embarrassing in my opinion. Cuban was acting like a child. And of course the bitcoin maxis were swarming around him like piranhas being assholes. He is right there are plenty of assholes in bitcoin. But he's wrong about almost everything he says about Bitcoin. And the whole "How much Bitcoin do you own, Preston... let's compare with how much I own" thing just reeks of a big man with a little pecker. So I was avoiding THAT conversation with my friend who is an employee of his, as well as someone who probably agrees with Cuban's position on BTC both because hes a standard finance guy as well as someone who has done very well with a traditional sort of approach to money. My firned is also an iconoclast and would probably like Doge based on that alone, similarly to Musk. I just think the conversation would go nowhere... Or perhaps even to somewhere bad. My buddy will have made a good deal of money the usual way... good job, right decisions, with a dash of skinflint thrown in. And I will be well off because I made a retarded bet on magical internet money and got spectacularly lucky despite having no idea what I am doing and being in the right place at the right time in spite of my mistakes. What frustrates me is Cuban is most literally a beneficiary of the above luck equation (though I imagine to hold on to what he gained took some good decisions) whereas from MY perspective my decisions have been VERY WELL researched, and understood. I just don't see the argument of who was struck by blind luck to be productive. |
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I appreciate that you and I have gone back and forth in our discussion of the stock2F model, so my comments might not really be so much directed at correcting anything that you say, but attempting to flesh out some of my thoughts in this area - in terms of whether maybe I had been misunderstood in what I was attempting to say to both Torque and cAPSLOCK.... and I am not even really disagreeing in great detail with either Torque or cAPSLOCK - but sometimes, it just seems to me that ideas need to be fleshed out a wee bit more, especially when attempting to address something that is so attempting to be data driven like the S2F model.
I do not think my input on this really is very detailed or scientific. But I am reacting on a gut level to what I see out there as either an almost religious reverence for the model, or a complete rejection of it. I think that kind of black and white thinking is common, and a place people make mistakes. I think PlanB himself is very clear that his model will most likely break. I am listening to his interview with Laura Shin (I wish she did not cause me such discomfort... she's the absolute representative example of the herd). And they are talking about whether or not this cycle could be the supercycle and his position is it's still too early. And to be honest I agree with him. I think the chance that THIS is the cycle is lower than the chance that it is not. But what I am saying is IT WILL eventually happen. If not this cycle, then one of the next. Simply because of the macro environment (gold USD inflation central banks etc) as well as the fact that the halvings are causing the reward to become exponentially smaller... It really is the exponential aspect of this that is so interesting. Bitcoin is the PARABOLIC asset. Everything about it.the math behind it is astronomical, and every thing about the way bitcoin grows is parabolic. Anyway. I think PlanB is probably right that this halving will also have a draw down. But I would also be kind of surprised if it is the same sort of 80+% thing we have seen in the past. I also think there could be a time coming when OUR crop of "OG"s are going to be tempted to move out "at the top" and then be surprised to learn that the pullback we saw was shallower than we have figured and we lose our stake somewhat. I think a max pain scenario for Bitcoin OGs is still on the horizon. Anyway... my thoughts are all over the place on this stuff. |
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