Bingo.

In my opinion the question is not whether it breaks to the upside or the downside, but rather will bitcoin succeed (spoiler: yes).  (edit - to explain this since it's a couple levels deep... if bitcoin fails, the model breaks... but that is also true if bitcoin continues to succeed in my opinion.  Because OTHER models are going to overtake this very pure S2F calculation.  Worldwide FOMO, for example could arguably break the model.  And is inevitable if Bitcoin continues to succeed. The scary bit IMHO is if that same FOMO might break Bitcoin...  but that's another topic.)

The other question is will this be the cycle on which it breaks, or will it be the next one (or even later??  ehhh... I doubt that though).

But my oft repeated position is it breaks, and it breaks to the upside.  And PlanB will go down in history as the person that figured out the natural progression of bitcoin's value until human nature pulverized his model.

Pit pat piffy wing wong wang!

(ahh.. I also just figured out what the end of this post meant...  I hope you are OK!  And yeah... some ibuprofen might be in order?)

Mmmm!  That -IS- a tasty burger!

This one is actually interesting to me.

The whole Maxis vs the world thing does not seem to be fading away.  And it's more complicated than, for example, Mark Cuban thinks.  

I actually ran sound for an old friend last night who is a musician, but also a C-level executive for the Mavericks.  So I imagine he's pretty tight with Cuban, I don't know though, I do not talk much with him about work.  But it was tempting to bring up Mark's recent clash with Pysh and the others on Twitter.  In fact I played drums for him on a short tour from Texas to Wyoming a few years ago, and I talked about Bitcoin at the time.  At that time he was an accountant for the Mavs only... he had not reached the C-Suite yet.  Anyway I digress.  IF I remeber correctly his position on Bitcoin was fairly typical for the average responsible person.  Something along the lines of "That's interesting, but you ought not put all your eggs into a crazy basket like that.  You ought to be saving up for retirement mostly".

Anyway... I think Mark is one of the poster boys for the "Bitcoin Maxis Suck" team right now.  And I think the whole thing is a sort of 3D problem.  Not as simple as he, or someone on our side would make it out.

On one had you have a bunch of assholes going around saying things like "HFSP" mostly because they like to be abrasive.  The way to be art of the "In crowd" is to virtue signal with all kinds of caustic gestures to people who are NOT in the in crowd.

On another hand (this things gonna have several hands lol) you have Bitcoin's "auto immune system".  These people are the gatekeepers for purity.  Though they are related to the above assholes they are also somewhat responsible for drawing the stark line between Bitcoin and all the endless list of scammy shitcoins, and pointing out the difference for those who have ears to hear, so to speak.

Then you have the sort of aspergers crowd that inevitably will be drawn to a pure CS project that is based on exotic math.  Sort of a special subclass of the above.

But finally (perhaps) we have the people that I believe that meme sort of points out.  People like a lot of us, I think.  People like me on that endless van ride from TX to WY and back getting to hear from someone for the 2000th time about how I was going to lose all my money.  And the guy was both smart, and probably extremely right in general. He was, for a while, the CFO of an NBA team (before he was promoted again)! Bitcoin was worse than a penny stock then (If you didn't get it).

But those sorts of conversations have hardened us, as well as weeded out those of us who really DIDN'T see from early on how Bitcoin would change the world.  Leaving a set of people who, though not just getting off on saying things like "NGMI" or "HFSP", but folks who have to be like the guy in the meme to survive.  People who may not have much tolerance for hearing about how lucky they got in the coming years from the same people who lambasted them as they held through multiple 85% draw downs.

I wanted to ask my friend about Cuban, since to some extent I think *he* is the lucky one... sold a useless business (broadcast.com) at the height of the dotcom bubble.  


And now just seems mad theat these "mean internet millennials" are getting rich "by accident and without deserving it" because of stupid internet money that he made fun of for years before trying to "join the scam" by latching onto another billionaire who is also kind of full of shit (youknowwho) .

But i figure conversations like that with my buddy would end up with me looking like one of those assholes up there... So instead we just did the "Hows it goin?  Haven't seen you in a while!"  "Great!  You still working for the hospital" sort of conversation instead.

And... in the end, I couldn't give a shit what other people think.  I *was* lucky to be here, yes.  But it was NOT luck that kept me here for the last 10+ years.

(Edit- I realize I might be getting the reputation of telling tall tales... Met Robert Moog, friends with a C level guy on the Mavs.  But all true (or is it? lol), and I guess it's kind of bad for my opsec... but I feel like I have trashed that ages ago at this point...)

Absolutely.  I think that actually matches some people predictions that are more conservative than PlanB.  Like this one:


I think there is also a significant non-zero possibility that the model breaks to the upside as well.  As in cuts through the 110k line, goes up even higher, and then does not come back down as much as we have seen in past cycles.

I have been predicting that for two years.  Not as a sure fire thing, but with more probability than we have had so far.  And I will gladly eat crow after the next 85% bear.

Big mac?

Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...

Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.

??

Two things about this...  I drew the channel at the point of the line.. interesting...

But the really meaty bit?  Look at that recovery from the big dump.  The smart money is doing EVERYTHING THEY CAN to keep this sucker down while they load up.  But the moment we see what is really happening is when we get a dump... they are gobbling it up like a cloud of piranhas.

I didn't say lightning DOES smart-contracts (though it could) it is BUILT out of them.

Lightning bi-directional payment channels are multisig smart contracts on the Bitcoin blockchain.  One of the only smart-contracts on a blockchain being USED for something other than pure speculation.  Smart contracts are how lighting works.  They are designed to be trust minimized settlement contracts. 

The neodymium EVs have a spring metal head basket... I thing I don't know why ALL mic makers do not so.  I could bounce it off a concrete floor, and the only damage it would take is it might lose some of the black color where it hit...  Sharpie will fix it! This is most certainly not a rhodium plated 87...  but it's a great talkback mic.   (actually it's very interesting for lots of things. magic on a bass amp...)

The thing that is so annoying to me is that the logic is so simple as to why Ethereum is a bad idea.

Smart contracts?  Yes this is a VERY interesting idea. And the lightning network is built on them, for example.  But not only do they not NEED to be run on a blockchain beyond the most simple ones, it actually does not make sense for them to be.  All the security aspects of a smart contract can be rooted on a blockchain via efficient hashes.  You do not need a "world computer"  using one of the least efficient storage systems ever developed by humankind.

Ethereum BREAKS one of the two things blockchain is important for.  Decentralization.  Any blockchain used for indiscriminate data storage is destined to centralize and become a digital version of the Federal Reserve/IMF/WEF/IBS machine that currently enslaves the world.  Only if we get this digital version it will make what we have now look fair.

I do not think Ethereum would centralize to a single authority.  But it would collapse to a small number of very powerful members of a group.  It would need the kind of infrastructure that only countries and huge corporations (think Amazon, Google) could create and maintain.  So we just end up with a new system that works just like the old one.  The members of that "fedaration" could meet and set policy as they see fit.

And then the obvious question.  Why on earth waste all this time and money running a blockchain when they can just do it with a good old shared database?  There is no reason.

And poof the reason for Ethereum to exist in the first place disappears into a puff of logic.

The central banks seem to have already figured this out.  They are not going to waste time trying to make something decentralized for their CDBCs.  Why would they?  It would not benefit them.  Now i imagine they might use the NAME "blockchain".  But... 

Bitcoin truly is humankind's best chance of destroying this eras system of mass enslavement.

Ethereum (and all the other centralizing "blockchains") is more than a scam to enrich it's founders.  It is a direct attack on the freedom of humanity.  And that is not an exaggeration.

I'm glad you're back.  We're the banks now, sir.  These stupid little Raspberry Pis might be worth something someday!

It's mysterious as to how he calculates...  But every now and then the numbers give a clue.  The raw score can sometimes do some things that reveal patterns.  I've been on the list for quite some time, but you rocketed past me handily.  When I had 2 nodes I could not live with the amount I was risking on the nodes.  Close to what you are running now...  Crazy thing is I am thinking about spinning up a c lightning instance lol.  What the hell is wrong with me? ;')

Anyone notice every time some big blasts of selling drops the corn down a chunk it just climbs calmly right back up as if nothing happened at all...

I am starting to get a sort of funny feeling.

In 2017 I bought my wife and I a trip to Hawaii using Bitcoin... cheapair.com.  I wonder if they kept any of their profits in BTC.  I hope so...  My wife was surprised I had done it.  But it was one of the only ways to buy it without her knowing.  "Why would you spend the REAL money on this trip instead of the worthless money we have in the bank?", she asked.  She's a good one.  "Well, I look at it this way... If bitcoin fails for some reason we got a trip to Hawaii from it... and if it doesn't?  Well that's exactly the problem we WANT to have".

Trip worth like $30k today.  Lol.  But I replaced nearly all that bitcoin in March of 2020 for about the same USD cost as the trip.  Problem we wanted to have, and all that.

I remember two things about that trip (well besides from the beach, the mountain hiking and the incredible sex). Bitcoin went up to ~10k, AND Ethereum was hacked for something like 320MM lol.  It was the "I accidently killed it" DAO hack.

I knew in the midst of that beauty and happiness that someday it would be the "million dollar trip"...  but to be honest it is getting hard to believe that we are starting to get within a reasonable distance of that..  Yeah it might still take a little while for Bitcoin to reach THAT height...

...Or will it?

I mean, I still think the adoption price "s curve" might be an actual thing.  And THIS TIME when Bitcoin is starting to gather the kind of steam that is SMART money buying friskily and trying not to wake up the masses when we get some other asshole like me selling for his Hawaiian villa or whatever, tanking the market for a second, while they buy the SHIT out of the dip.

We are nowhere near FOMO yet.

But this time?  When we get there we will be in the midst of the beginning of a worldwide financial collapse that makes the actions called out in the genesis block look like a bad game of Monopoly.

Not only does the smart money know what Bitcoin is now... but look at gold! How is that even possible considering the macro backdrop? They also know Bitcoin is really the only way out of this mess.  And we are:

JUST.  GETTING.  STARTED.

I'll say it again:  I am getting a funny feeling for sure.

I almost feel like buying a trip to the Big Island or something... lol... hmm.  Let's see what kind of trip about a half a corn can buy me this time...

Autopilot is WEIRD.  I accidentally had it on and I sent like .06 BTC to it at first and it opened like 4 or 5 channels.  Nah.

But who is going to go to the trouble to run a lightning node and have a robot make the channels?  I get it for a neutrino "node" on your phone... 

The Monero community left me in the dust years ago.  I feel like the new blood is way more BCASH style than Bitcoin inspired.  I still believe in the project and the ethos, but overall I can't really stand the community anymore.

That is probably more a screed against Gen Z and young millennials than anything else, though...

I got into a discussion with a guy who was trying to tell me why Monero is all light and butterflies while Bitcoin is just a bunch of toxic NGU assholes.  And he brought up the Monero donation  system of croud-funding new tech.  It was everything I could do to not say: "You are talking to the donation system from before the donation system".

GET OFF MY LAWN.

I think it is impressive that you have done it, as I believe longevity of the node is one of the factors (though it's very mysterious), and this version of your node is new.  I wish i knew what my old node was... it was much larger but I am not sure as well connected as my current node.

My current node was better off before I started adding lots of new channels, so I ALSO think channel longevity is a factor.  So, that said, something about your node is really hitting the metrics. 

Another, similar resource:  https://terminal.lightning.engineering/  You're on that one too!

Reddit probably has the most active communities.

It's coming!  Look we are almost there!!!



Oh, no... my bad.  that is ACTUAL BITCOIN.


Ah yes, here's BCASH: