And once again that familiar feeling of amusement at the thought of it happening, mixed with a large dose of rationally thinking that that shit can't possibly happen, topped with a slice of, but what if it does ... again...!!?

Lol. Very good

Ugh, you are totally off topic with the trading fees argument. That has little to do with the point I'm making.

I'm going to draw a comparison here with the diet industry.

In the 1980's the USDA published guidelines about what comprises a healthy diet.

30 years later and in the face of overwhelming evidence against what they recommend at the time university educated nutritionists still recommend a 'balanced' diet based on those principals. Such that the foundation is bread and cereal.

Obesity, type II diabetes, metabolic syndrome are running rampant. The nutritionists have tried everything to justify why their food pyramid can't be wrong. They just can't see the glaring truth that people should eat plant matter first and foremost (vegetables). Everything else sparingly.

You remind me of those nutritionists, university educated, smart enough yes, but so sure of what you have been taught being 'true' that you refuse to think for yourself.

Time and time again in this thread people have spelled out the folly in trying to trade based on such naive heuristics as 'the china news was bad, so I would have sold'. I gave you an unlikely, but yet quite possible scenario in which you could lose badly and you ignore it. Instead telling me all about how you can find out the news before anyone else, know exactly how that news is going to affect the market, and then trade accordingly.

The news does not move markets, people move markets, and people are hard to predict. If people are hard to predict, then you are better off using something else. Even elliot waves is better than trying to trade the news!

I ask you this - how do you know the china news was bad, did you know that as soon as you read about it (because to me it looked good) or are you only able to tell us that after the fact because there was a sell off. Did you read about it before the market moved, or was the market already moving? If it was how far had it moved, do you still have time to make the trade, how did you know it wasn't going to reverse sharply?

Have you not noticed that every day the financial news is full of post-hoc rationalisation about why the market did this or that today. Its all written *after* stuff happened. At best you get semi-predictive news, written by somebody from an organisation that has a vested interest in trying to influence market sentiment one way or another. Much like you are doing now.

Was the silk road news bad, it certainly looked it, turns out the market rallied after that little bombshell. How is the fed taper going to affect the PM market? What's the news coming out of switzerland going to do to the price? Why are we already closing back in on $1000 is it a dead cat bounce or the next leg up? Was it the keiser report that explained the run up in LTC, or the interest in china, if it was china what caused them to pick it up? Do the chines watch the keiser report? how do you explain the subsequent NMC rise, a count that was so badly broken it looked to be going to zero.

Most of all I would like to know what on earth sparked the 2000% ANC rally on nov 22nd? I was just hours away from having some serious coin in that, bitcoin was flat, I put in a buy just under market price expecting it to fill, I came back the next day and 90% of my order hadn't filled (at least I got that tenth!), instead it had tripled overnight. What should I have done at that point? (I actually just bought what I could and had to be satisfied with the smaller position, because I believe ANC brings something new to the alt coin scene - here I go pumping it up eh!) Anyway god knows what triggered the rise - perhaps it was my buy order? Bitcoin was flat (for bitcoin) that day. Maybe a dog barked in Sweden?

Why the rise in FTC on the 30th, and why the subsequent retreat? Do you know? I don't but I was able to acquire more BTC through rebalancing and still retain a significant amount of FTC.

I watched all of these happening, I watch a lot of alt coins all the time, its starting to prove more profitable than my day job. I'm mostly in BTC but I also have a little bit of various other coin that I think might be contenders. I read the news and watch the charts but I don't pretend to believe that I have enough information to be able to 'trade' the way you describe it. I gently rebalance my portfolio, I look to mitigate risk, I massage the numbers to keep the ship on course. I do not chase the pennies. I let the coin do the work, and when it has appreciated according to the plan, I sample its fruit. I do *not* chop down the tree thinking a bigger one will grow!

This (to me) is reality, its about preservation of capital, acting rationally, keeping cool through the lunacy of the whole thing. I wasn't old enough to be part of the dot com boom and bust, but this is comparable, maybe even bigger.

I survived through the practical application of knowledge gained from being in various markets for some years. Equities, leverage trades, options. I had successes, which seemed to be perfectly understandable because the markets did exactly what they signs said they would do. I patted myself on the back. The losses, were excruciating, because the markets, they did exactly the opposite of what they said they were going to do - but only just enough to stop you out, before going on to do exactly what you "knew" they were going to do I was convinced that TA worked... and it does, until it doesn't. It was round that time when I read talebs work. This is what changed my stance on TA. I can see how it works, and I can see that if you have enough resources and are quick enough you can gain an edge, but the stress and time for the gains (with limited capital, you can only make limited gains) it just doesn't add up. So I had to unlearn everything I knew. Now I am like those annoying ex smokers, that cough and splutter in public at the merest whiff of a cigarette. No really, I *am* one of those annoying ex-smokers

Then, more specifically with BTC I learned through the stress of trying to work the $1-$32 bubble, and the anguish of what to do in the months that followed, how the charts didn't behave like they 'should' how nothing seemed to make sense.

This experience taught me so much about bitcoin, and more importantly about myself, what my greed and fear looked like, how they affected me. Why I did the things I did. Only then was I able to confidently instigate a plan, and to have the patience to execute it without fear that it is wrong. Everyone else in the world might think its wrong for them, but my plan is exactly right for me. This is when we come back to the notion that some random on the internet can come along and try and tell me "I should have done X": utter horse manure.

University teaches you a lot, I won't deny it but the most important thing is not to know stuff, but to know when you don't know stuff. I have to keep learning, I know I don't know shit about what is going on, and that is powerful, because that knowledge allows you to develop a plan that doesn't really on knowing what is essentially unknowable. So far, its all going swell, I am delighted to be me right now. Something I am not so sure I could have confidently said 5 years ago.

Seriously go ahead and try to trade! Or, save yourself some money by just posting what you *would* do if you had 100 BTC, as people in this thread have invited you to. See how it goes. I think sometimes the only way one really find out how hot the plate is, is by touching it yourself.

I'll start:

With my 100BTC my first move will be to move it all to an offline wallet, and wait.

IF anyone else wants to play along feel free

+5 Insightful

I am an awful poker player. I know exactly what I should do, but I go ahead and do whatever I feel like doing. I am great at bankroll though and so I have loads of fun because I lose exactly what I knew I was going to

Like the old lady at the slots, I am paying to be entertained, and there is no harm in that, unless you don't know that is what you are doing.

I could argue "that this could be the case 99% of the time and then there's 1% chance a black swan would occur and the market would move in a way that is different to what I predicted" but I didn't.

If that was the case, then your e.v. would be better, so of course your follow on statement makes sense.

The thing is the reality is that its more like 50% of the time you will be right and 50% you will be wrong. (nod to oda: some amongst us might be able to shift the odds to a few percent in their favour and get a positive ev in the long run and more power to them, but I bet even the best amongst them didn't *know* to sell at 1200 and buy at $700, I expect their gains were much more tame and much more wary of risking the whole stash. Just as the best poker players in the world know all about bankroll management.)

So on the whole the average joe is facing a losing proposition trading (is this really why you are suggesting people should trade?looking for a few more rubes?), unless you are *brilliant* or lucky. Thats the ~99% of cases. What remains is the chance of the black swan. As Taleb suggests, you position yourself to take advantage.

1. If BTC goes to 'da moon' you want to be holding as many as you can.
2. If BTC goes to 0 (or near enough) and never recovers you don't want to have missed out on the good times.

To hedge against #2 you take a little off the table at well planned intervals, but you try not to compromise #1. That's your big 'option' play so to speak. The insurance against BTC becoming new money whilst you had your eye off the ball.

Apply some math so to tweak your ordered for your own preference of locking in gains now vs potential bigger gains later. Stick to the plan. Zero downside and unlimited upside. Its the holy grail.

Possibly having 20% more BTC to then risk in the next trade where I might lose it all. Thats a bad proposition in anyones book.

I dont believe for a second this would happen (thats why its a black swan!) but...

Imagine another run up over christmas the price goes 'over $9000' then levels out at $9250, volume drops off, the sell side on gox is absolutely huge, buy side is weak... a red candle forms below the 10 day ema, then below the 30 day... bids are drying up, the sell side is f*kn huge and growing at an astonishing rate as so many 'normal' people are sitting looking at gains beyond there wildest dreams. tens of thousands of dollars for 2 or 3 btw that they picked up at $600 back in november....

You are convinced this is the next swing trade, you quickly dump your stash and get a good, no *great* price: $8900 only 5% off the ATH, you have thousands of dollars in play and bids every $200 all the way down to th 68% fib retracement so you can 'get back in cheaper'. By your best estimates you should have around 40% more BTC once this correction is over.

Then as the sell side is finally deep enough that Warren Buffet is able to put in that 210k BTC order he's been looking to fill without pushing the price over $20k. The asks are obliterated up to $18,500 WB is delighted that he averaged in at only $14k only $3bn to get 1% of the money supply, he was just hedging against BTC becoming new money. You are now all in dollars facing a potential 50% haircut on your BTC. The panic sends the markets racing higher... when do you buy. WB famously 'never sells' those BTC aren't going to be back on the market for a long, long time. What do you do.. the price is already over $20k and you haven't even had time to log into gox to place your orders to get back in, and really are you gonna rush to jump back in for a 50% loss? You are going to hesitate... $25k .... You are going to capitulate and buy in, then immediately take a 20% haircut as the price then stabilises at $20k.

Phew. what a ride!

I was asleep whilst all that happened and when I wake up the next morning I have a little chuckle about the fact the BTC has gone and done it again and shake my head in disbelief whilst putting through a SEPA transfer because a few of my sell targets were breached. Tell the wife who laughs again. We continue to joke about when I'll be able to get that porsche for 1BTC that she said I could have all the while not really believing it will ever happen, but at the same time starting to wonder....

Then, continue to hold... For The Longest Time™

sorry for my sweeping and somewhat misleading statement - you are right the truth is more complicated I agree - but I had to keep it simple for this very special case.

what I should have said is 99% of traders are 100% lucky. 1% of traders are only 49% lucky - they are 'the house' so to speak.

Do not risk it all to gain little. Risk little to gain lots. He made his money with options designed to pay off big when unpredictable stuff happened, which it inevitably did, not by trying to time the market. Are you sure your read his books.

Do you understand that whilst you are trying to capture small gains by trading in and out there is a chance that the market will suddenly and very unpredictably move massively against you.

When you read stuff you are supposed to understand it for what it says, not just make it fit your pre-conceived view.

If you don't understand something does that make it dumb?

You got tantalisingly close to grasping it but couldn't quite make the mental leap. The corollary to the question I asked is 'hands up those people who lost BTC trading?'. Of course you probably don't understand why that is important so I will explain.

The reason I didn't ask that question, is because everyone will tell you about the trade they won, not many people will tell you about the losses. That goes for this board, for wall st traders, for poker players, the guy in the bookies betting on the nags, the old lady on the slots in vegas and every other risk/reward scenario in the world. Its an innate feature of human psychology regarding loss aversion. Gamble for enjoyment by all means, but never kid yourself you will win (in the long term) unless you are the house.

See you keep making all these posts about how smart you are, and then also making all these posts that demonstrate you are as thick as two short planks, and need everything explaining to you in terms a 12 year old will understand.

You aren't interested in understanding any viewpoint other than your own. You keep reframing your argument in ways to prove how right *you* are and how everyone else is wrong. Your posts reek of insecurity and a need to prove how smart *you* are. You aren't even interested in arguing the matter at hand, just your personal standing.

I don't care if I am wrong about which way BTC is headed, I just execute trades based on rationality, sane risk/reward, and preservation of capital. I don't care how smart or great people think I am, it doesn't really matter in the end. If I say some dumb ass shit, I expect to get pulled on it, and I'll think about what I said and come back stronger.

Here is an example. I used to think I could trade, then I found out I couldn't then I found out that nobody could. TA is apophenia, a chart can be found to retrospectively justify any trade. Statistics quite handily demonstrate why there are trading legends. The people that 'can' trade are lucky. Sometimes a heads comes up 100 times in a row. At any second you could lose it all.

Whereas you by your own admission, have no skin in the game, but need to come on a forum and tell people what they should be doing, even though you don't even understand the basic concept of risk/reward. Have a deluded idea that you can somehow predict that $1200 was the sell point even though it could have been anywhere from $80. Don't seem to grasp, despite having had it explained to you countless times over, that if the trade goes wrong you can incur significant losses.

Markets are primed to screw traders. The bitcoin market is primed to utterly destroy you. If you knew the first thing about the concept of anti-fragility, or hedging against black swan events then you would shrink into a corner embarrassed at how naive your view of things is. I apologised before because I thought maybe I was being too harsh. Your flippant response to that demonstrates material immaturity and an abhorrent personality flaw that is really going to screw you up in life at some point. I realise now I wasn't being too harsh but too kind. You are a child that needs grow the f' up.

Sure you might catch a few good 'trades' on the way. When it all comes crashing down and you are crying in the ashes of your own ruin maybe then you will feel the humility necessary to count yourself as 'human'.

Please do stick to your word and don't even bother trying to respond. You'll just embarrass yourself even further.

quick poll. hands up those people who lost BTC recently by holding?


...@....

congrats on "winning" by redefining words to mean what you want them to. stand up job. I'm sure everyone who reads this thread will be teh smrtr for it.

I leave captioning to the crowds

Santa Clause rally incoming!! hehe

$10k by xmas. Now that would be funny.

lolol +1

OK, I admit I am being a bit harsh on OP.

Here is the thing the question as its phrased is black and white. OP suggests you can predict where the top is (or near enough), that you can know that after that top there will be a significant enough selloff such that it was worth selling, that you can predict where the short term bottom is (or near enough) to be able to rebuy. He fails to see that if this doesn't go 100% to plan then you could very well end up in a worse position, and fails to see just how unlikely it is that it will go 100% to plan.

All that stuff seems pretty obvious to me, which is why I get a bit cranky when people suggesting not selling is a bad decision, because there was some outside chance that I could have profited from a lucky trade.

You are an idiot?

ITT someone with no bitcoin tells everyone they should have sold at $1200 *after* the fact.

Obvious troll is obvious.

Also they will know exactly in great detail what caused it... 

Ya, I read that, I suspect it was supposed to rollback to $trade+1 and not $trade.

That way it wouldn't keep executing $trade and getting stuck in a loop.

As to whether they should be deciding what orders to allow through, not a chance imho. Let it sell, let it lag. Especially thesedays when there are at least 2 other exchanges where people can not panic sell on.

I suspect its a bug and not a feature.

I don't sell what I mine, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I'm probably not the only one.

I realise that doesn't negate your argument, but its a factor worth considering. Then there is this idea that $3.6m is a lot of money.

To me and you maybe. As a fraction of 'investment capital' being thrown around every day, maybe not so much?