Yes.. I see that you started that thread a couple of days ago.. and I'll put that thread on my list of threads to look at.

Of course, there are quite a few threads that end up having overlapping sub-themes.. and at the same time, sometimes we do need to go back to the OP to try to figure out if members are still even trying to stay on topic in accordance with the OP or sometimes the original topic might even become irrelevant in terms of what kinds of ideas might be being discussed within the thread, which might end up being a sign that the thread needs to be closed.  

I doubt that the topic of buying on the dip and HODL will ever become irrelevant, even if those practices are subsets of a variety of different kinds of BTC accumulation strategies that normies likely end up employing.. and that such practices and the extent to which they are done might change depending on where normies are at in their bitcoin accumulation journey (and we know that there are so much of the overall world's population that have not even started accumulating bitcoin yet.. they are barely passed the hearing about bitcoin and thinking they know what it is, so one of the next stages for the no coiners is to get some of it and at least become a low coiner prior to advancing further.. or losing their coins if they screw it up or don't realize which coins are more valuable in accordance with Gresham's law ideas)..


For sure, it seems that the dip from $30k to $25k is over.. but not easy to say with certainty.. since we are currently in the middle of the range.. so no one can really say for sure that the dip is over.. and that $25k support might not be broken to the downside.

It is hard to bet either way, even though sometimes people act as if they know, and then they tell you "I told you so," after the fact... but I doubt that they really know with any level of confidence that maybe at best might get into the 60% to 70% arena before all the events end up playing out. 

Sure, from time to time, there are some price set ups that make it seem more likely of one price direction or another in the short-term, but I doubt that we are currently in one of those kinds of a set up.

We ONLY need a 4% CAGR out of traditional asset management theories (or the withdrawal rate for passive income)... I was kind of thinking that we might be able to count on right around a 12% CAGR for the coming 10 years or more or even perhaps longer.. but hard to project beyond something like 10 years - which is 3x traditional rates.. but surely I would not want to try to employ such a system of withdrawing 12% per year if it did not continue to show in the data.. including that currently I am using the 200-week moving average for my bitcoin valuation chart including how much I expect the BTC value based on the 200-week moving average to move up on average per year with kind of an anticipated decreasing slope in terms of how fast the 200 week moving average is going up..

It still is good to see that kind of CAGR historical data, because none of us really know the future, even though from time to time we should try to make sure whatever our expectations (and hopes, and even plans for future cashing out periods. maintenance or whatever you want to call it.. assuming that you might not necessarily just sit on your bitcoin.. like actual wealthy people do.. but normies do not necessarily follow exactly the same practices) happen to be, line up with real (rather than fantasylandia) data.

I actually understand that buddy is not yet self-aware, but I wonder if buddy is aware enough to have at least 7 digits available for such million per coin.


Oh my....

I am surely disinclined to give you the answer.. which is actually a pretty basic concept.. so I will just give you a hint.

Look at this chart:   https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

It shows the 200-week moving average, and so what do you see in the chart?

Another hint:  The stock to flow model uses the 200-week moving average too.. but the stock to flow model has some other data in their too in order to make some claims about bitcoin.


It's not even my statement.  I stole it from Mark Twain.


“I didn't have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.” -Mark Twain Twain

and apparently many other people made similar kinds of statements.. so I am sure that I got it from one or more of them.
>>>>>
"This famous quote has been attributed to many people—-Mark Twain, Winston Churchill, even Bill Clinton, for starters. Once a clever phrase like this comes into the language, a lot of folks start using it, and their readers reasonably figure they made it up. But according to the website quoteinvestigator.com, the first to use it was the 17th century French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal. "<<<<<<<<<<

https://www.quora.com/Who-wrote-the-quote-If-I-had-more-time-I-would-have-written-you-a-shorter-letter


Some people do like to do those kinds of things.. They focus on certain people and maybe they have some kind of a theme too.. and frequently they focus on more famous people, but you never know, the internet and these kinds of forums are not exactly long lasting in nature, and even in the past 10 years or so we have seen mainstream media become more and more reliant upon quoting sources from various internet forums.

by the way, I thought that you were going to write such book involving me, phillip and maybe you might find some others and do some comparison and contrasting.. ..   There still needs to be some kind of a need for an interesting hook.. so we are likely not interesting enough on our own.

It looks legit and even unbiased when you put it like that.

And, I Love the font.     #nohomo


Don't worry.

I cannot see Bob closing this thread... and probably even moderators don't give too many shits whether it stays open or not... even though the substance of the thread is a bit childish and whiny.. but maybe it ends up playing out as a bit of somewhat innocent humor too.... that likely reflects more on the pettiness of the authors rather than any substantively important topic that they believe that they may have raised.. . just like the nutildah thread of a similar theme.. if you had not seen that one....

and. .my feelings had not really gotten hurt from these kinds of topics.. let it aire out.. even if 100% ^confirmed dumb...

 

I personally consider it to be a good idea to try to keep track of your transactions, and therefore, you should be ONLY combining like transactions..

so one way to divide them is KYC versus non-KYC...   .. and it could be more complicated to divide further, but there could be some kinds of cases that you might decide further kinds of divides, especially if you have some patterns in your own transactions and then you might be able to combine all of the like transactions that might come out of the same source... for example an exchange.. and maybe even some other third party that you deal with if you believe that you are not really given anything up when you combine them.  the more rigid you try to be, then the more complicated it might become to try to keep track, but if you largely deal in generic categories, then it might be a little easier to main some kind of a system of keeping separate but then sometimes combining them.. especially if you might have a whole bunch of small ones that you cannot really contemplate spending that way.. but another thing could be that you just leave the small ones alone because you already have some of your UTXOs that you know you would be able to use for larger transactions if such a need were to occur.


I remember quite a few bitcoiners back in the day (let's say 2014-2016) who used to sometimes consider having 1BTC as too small of an increment, so some of them were separating their coins into 10 BTC increments.. so surely that can become a problem. because even now 0.3 BTC is very close to a $10k bill.

Maybe some of those guys fixed their issues, but I have my doubts because some members do not want to be moving their coins around very much, so surely some of them might be getting into situations in which they would prefer to have some UTXOs with smaller amounts in them.

I have a "friend" who tends to rotate through various addresses, so even an address that has something like 0.3 BTC might end up getting used up over a year or two... that is if the goal might at one time be to exhaust certain UTXOs, but let's say this friend has several BIGGER transactions of $2k to $4k, and then he might have 30 different UTXos that have 0.3 BTC each, so instead of exhausting a couple of the UTXOs, he does the next 10 transactions from each of 10 of those UTXOs and then ends up having around 0.2 BTC in each of those 10 UTXOs that used to have 0.3 BTC... .but then he still has another 20 UTXos that have 0.3 BTC each... does not even sound like a first-world problem, but it does sound like it could be a problem for some bitcoin OGs.

We can look at the topic of this thread, and we can see that the thread is not about DCA - even though DCA ideas have kind of taken over the topic of the thread - perhaps because it is a bit of a superior idea over the idea of buying on dip and holding (or even the ideas about buying on the dip)... but we are not necessarily going to agree about which methods to use to accumulate BTC - even though many of us, including yours truly assert that trading and/or selling to accumulate more bitcoin is not a good strategy for newbies, even though it could possible work for people who have been in bitcoin longer and they figure out ways to get ahead of the BTC price.. but at the same time, part of my problems with those folks touting out trading strategies in order to accumulate more BTC is that they are frequently acting as if anyone can just jump into trading and "obviously make more BTC" by trading rather than sticking with the more basic and even better strategies that involve various ways to accumulate BTC through various forms of buying and including HODLing if you happen to end up running out of money to buy more BTC.


So yes increasing you DCA now because you believe that the BTC price is going to go up is a forum of buying on dip, so it is not necessarily strict DCA, but surely depending how anyone might carry out their DCA it still could considered a fairly pure form of DCA in the sense that we might want to increase our DCA during certain times because we are striving to get to a certain DCA allocation faster. .so then maybe once we get to our target DCA level, then maybe we can modify our approach after that.. ..

Let's say for example, you have a $100k investment porfolio, so your target is to get your BTC portion up to 15% based on your own investments into BTC (rather than merely BTC price appreciation), so if you might just be starting out investing into BTC you might be feeling a bit stressed because even if you invest $100 per week, it would take you nearly 3 years to get to $15k, and you have a kind of feeling that you get more BTC right now for that $15k because you get the sense that the BTC price might be going up in the near future..  so whether you are just strarting now or maybe you already started a few months ago, but you might decide to try to invest $3k per month into BTC so that you can reach your $15k invested into bitcoin within about 5 months.  Some people have abilities to be more aggressive like that based on their own financial circumstances, and sure we could still call that investing $3k per month over the next 5 months to be an engagement in a kind of aggressive and/or front loading DCA strategy.. and then maybe once the person gets up to the target, then maybe after that they resume a less aggressive BTC investing strategy, whether that is $100 per week or some other amount that they consider to be within their discretionary budget and the balancing of how much they want to invest into each of their various investment assets (and no, I am not referring to investing into shitcoins in terms of anything that anyone should be considering as part of a long term strategy, unless it is less than 10% of the bitcoin amount.. and while employing precautions along the way in terms of which shitcoins.. instead other investments might well be stocks, property, bonds, commodities, and/or cash/cash equivalents... again not shitcoin.). 


Don't be retarded.

Of course, Cardano is a shitcoin.

Stop trying to create a hierarchy regarding which shitcoin is less worse.

All altcoins are shitcoins that creates a token.  Bitcoin is different than those, even though it has its own token.. but it is the one that created a paradigm shifting method of sound money. .and the bitcoin tokens help to establish the various incentives around bitcoin in terms of its mining and the various seven network effects as were outlined by trace mayer.


Apparently, you do not understand ideas behind bitcoin in terms of sound money and even Austrian economics in contrast to keynsian economics.

You may well be so emeshed into keynsian economics that you believe that is the only thing that works in terms of how incentives are created and also the time-preference factors of money.. so for example, if someone ONLY were to accumulate and hoard bitcoin, and if such person no had any other kind of money or assets to spend, such person would have to spend his/her bitcoin if s/he would like to eat/drink, provide shelter for him/herself and various other costs of living...including buying the IPhone 15 rather than not having any phone because his/her Iphone 11 broke... yet if such person has lesser valuable kinds of money to spend in order to buy such wants and/or needs, then s/he is going to spend those lesser forms of money first, prior to spending his/her bitcoin in the same kinds of Gresham law dynamics that already exist in the world. 

you think that people are going to stop spending money and hoard their bitcoin. .that's bullshit.  they are going to spend it.. especially if they feel that they need to consume now rather than later, and if they try to consume later, they will be dead... so there are surely preferences to consume now instead of holding onto bitcoin, as I already describe.. the real way that the world works and functions rather than your made-up, misleading and fantasy keynsian economics mumbo jumbo.


What are you talking about?

A lot of things are possible, and I suppose even Wind_FURY and I are largely arguing about the extent to which BTC is coordinated to various macro-factors, and I am disputing with his view that bitcoin price has to dip, even if various other asset classes end up dipping.. and another thing is that bitcoin might dip, but it might go up first, so that when it ends up dipping it is not necessarily dipping in a correlated way, even if some folks are going to continue to presume and proclaim that bitcoin is correlated and other nonsense like that.


It is your choice the extent to which you want to involve government and political happenings in your discussion about whether you believe bitcoin prices are going to dip, and you may well end up getting shouted down for being a dummy... but you are free to raise them..

Another thing, a lot of the more active members in this particular thread are preferring to figure out how to manage their own bitcoin stacking plans, and perhaps trying figuring out ways to possible increase the amount of coins that they might be able to stack, and so trying to figure out what government and politics might do may well ONLY be a small part of whatever factors each of us are considering.. .and maybe even a bit of a distraction, even though you are free to raise such points, like you already did.


Maybe it will and maybe it won't..

Good luck if your vision is ONLY in that one direction, you are likely going to need such luck - and probably you don't even understand bitcoin anyhow.. or perhaps you don't see that there might be some potential opportunities to buy bitcoin if there does end up coming some kind of a major dip (that you consider to be a crash)... but it is not even close to guaranteed that such a crash/dip will end happening.. even though some folks like to focus on such pie in the sky ideas... frequently no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpers and/or government/financial institution shills.


Who said we are in a bear market?  You are trying to suggest we are in a bear market for some kind of a reason?

I see a BTC price correction from $69k down to $15,479, and then I see a recovery after that.. so a bear market would presume that the bottom is not in.. which is surely starting to seem like a long shot now.. but we could well be in a transitional period between bear and bull.. so people are not really clear.. but it is far from certain that bear market is the correct definition regarding where we happen to be at this time, even if you have fantasies in that direction.


Well, at least you recognize this part. which is that bitcoin seems to be in a good place right now in terms of current BTC prices.


You make some decent points here.. even though who really cares about shitcoins.. especially in this thread, but your points about bitcoin in this last section seem reasonable.

I doubt that I am saying that, even though I am saying that you are likely not as unbiased and objective as you are striving to put yourself out to be.


Oh gosh, you really can be a goofball sometimes with your fairly lame attempts at applying logical fallacies.

Whatever I might have had said, it is quite likely that I am not attacking you, but instead attacking your arguments.. and sure. .throw in a bit of flare, here and there for funzies and call you a goofball. hahahaha.

I suppose ultimately my already used words speak for themselves in the sense that I was somewhat attacking you in terms of your seeming attempts to act and/or present yourself as if you have some kind of a great grasp on macro factors and therefore presuming that bitcoin's price performance is also going to need to be correlated to things that might happen in the macro-world, even if we presume the things that you say to happen in the macro world were to play out as you already "objectively" and "unbiasedly" described, which is also far from a given, even if like you said, you are merely describing what you believe to be "greater likelihoods" blah blah blah.

10¢ is nothing to sneeze at.

Just like from my point of view 1/1000 of a cent is also nothing to sneeze at, even though it is currently not very valuable.

There are likely various levels of bullishness in regards, to bitcoin's price potential, and even if we had all of the 21 million bitcoin, it would take around a 2.1 quadrillion market cap for each satoshi to be worth a dollar.. and there are many theorist that suggest the current total addressable market for bitcoin is ONLY a bit less than 1 quadrillion, while at the same time, many of us should be able to imagine how new technologies and inventions and even something like the invention, discovery and better ways of harnessing energy can increase current value. .maybe not infinitely, but in various exponential ways in order to make the total addressable market in the future of bitcoin to become much greater than the current addressable (but still not realize) market...

In other words bitcoin is likely right around only 1/2000 of the size of its total addressable market.. and therefore likely around only 1/10,000 of some of its future addressable market - whether reaching these potentials is possible in 25 to 50 years or maybe more possible 100 to 200 years or it could take even longer.. and sure there is already some built in anticipation of bitcoin's incentives structured out for another nearly 120 years when we get to the mining reward going below satoshi levels in around 2140.

Yeah.. more or less floating around the 200-week average price.

Who would-a-thunk? 

And what does the 200-week moving average mean?


Anyone?


Anyone?










 


It's a trick question.


I write long posts because I feel that I don't have enough time to write shorter posts.



Go figure.


It's good to know someone who is famous - even though it seems that we knew you (kind of) back when you were a "no body."  #nohomo


hahahahahahaha


People seem to be buying it... but at least you are letting us know.


The fact that the government cannot really control bitcoin in total does not prevent them to proclaim that they are controlling it, even if they aren't.

You do not have to buy a whole bitcoin.  You can buy 1 satoshi... so bitcoin is not necessarily going to become too expensive to buy, even though people who got in earlier are going to have advantages in terms of how much their BTC cost as compared with people who are buying later.. so that is merely one of the advantages of acting earlier rather than waiting around and seeing what happens.


We are not talking about trading in this thread, and the overwhelming majority (maybe even more than 80% of people) do not even need to try to trade bitcoin.  They are likely going to be much better off to employ various strategies that mostly focus on ways to buy BTC, even if they employ a variety of means of buying BTC that involves DCA, buying on dip, lump sum buying and even HODLing from time to time when they run out of money to buy. 

Anyone who is knew to bitcoin or even several years into bitcoin and who are largely accumulating bitcoin should not be considering selling bitcoin as a means to either accumulate bitcoin or to be using selling as a means to attempt to buy more bitcoin. It is not a good accumulation strategy for more than 80% of people.

Hopefully anyone who is a member of this forum and is ONLY making minimum wage in a place like Bangladesh and/or any other country with similar kinds of low level wages, these people should be working towards increasing their wages rather than merely making minimum wage... and so maybe they should still be figuring out ways to make more and to be able to put that extra money into bitcoin.. . and surely make sure that their monthly expenses are covered so that they do not ever have to sell any of their bitcoin, except at a time that is of their own choosing, and surely many of us even realize that it could take many many years to reach a stack of bitcoin that feels sizable if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week, which would be $520 per year, which would be $5,200 over 10 years, and so maybe 10-20 years of investing into bitcoin, even with a low amount will start to feel like it is providing a lot of options that had not been available without any kind of investment into bitcoin.

Another potential problem area with poor people is to make sure that they are able to hold their bitcoin privately, so it they are not initially holding their BTC privately, maybe every once in a while, even once a year, their bitcoin value can be transferred to private locations.. and surely they have to figure out their best ways of storing their private keys.. even if they might not initially start out holding their own keys until maybe after they have built up their BTC stash to a high enough level that it would be worth it to transfer to a private wallet (accounting for sometimes transferring fees can sometimes be a bit higher than would be justified to transfer smaller amounts of bitcoin - depending on where it is held and what are the fee options for that particular location).

Of course, positive results are not guaranteed for any way of investing, even with something like bitcoin that seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside that is currently available, if not the best.  At the same time, there are going to be needs to make sure that you do not overinvest in such ways that you do not have enough money to cover your cashflows, and the cashflows of businesses tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of individuals and also the cashflows of married with familities will tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of single individuals.  Even though cashflows might be more complicated, that does not necessarily mean that abilities to invest into bitcoin would be more complicated because sometimes complicated cashflows might create more discretionary income, so then more options regarding how to allocate funds (just like governments might have more options than businesses, but they still likely have to manage their finances well, otherwise they might end up screwing up their own finances because they did not adequately account for their expenses when they chose to invest into bitcoin).

No problem..  except that satoshi is not in charge of bitcoin...

and therefore, you engaged in a more proper use of the "appeal to authority" fallacy.


That hardly makes any sense to me that a satoshi would have to be worth a dollar or near a dollar in order for it to be worth it to recognize further digits.  You can keep repeating it, but it makes hardly any sense.

I doubt that any hardfork is necessary to recognize digits smaller than a satoshi.. but still like others said it might not be justifiable without a certain value.. I doubt that it a dollar and I even doubt that is a penny.. so even 1/1000 of a penny might be justifiable to recognize such further down digits.. but hey, I am just one person.  What do I know regarding what people want to do today as compared to what they might want to do in 2048 or times approaching 2048 when it might be considered if more than 8 digits might be justified to recognize on bitcoin's main chain.


That's the spirit!!!!!  Even though I know that he can be annoying sometimes, especially when he starts spreading misinformation.. but hey, we cannot necessarily pre-judge what he might say... even though surely requesting Maxwell or Chow seems probably better to the extent that they might have opinions on this topic or even consider the topic to be of enough importance to chime in.

You sound a bit lost with your intermingling shitcoins into your discussion.

Maybe you want to reframe your question and try to focus on bitcoin, especially since this thread is about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is likely pretty close to inevitably going to continue to be volatile in the next 30 years, but surely if bitcoin's market cap continues to increase it will likely become less volatile with the passage of time.. but as you seem to hint 30 years is a long way to project out, so it does not have very much to do with the topic of this thread except maybe to the extent that your buying BTC (and even loading up on BTC) right now will give you a lot more options 20-30-40 years into the future, so maybe even slow accumulation now and in the next 4-10 years will then result in such BTC accumulating person to have a lot more options when it comes to 30 years down the road.. so long as s/he had not ended up losing the BTC along the way.. so one thing is accumulating BTC but another thing is actually making sure taht they are secure and periodically checking security and keeping up with the better ways to hold your BTC... whether that is going to change or not in the next 30 years seems to also be something that is hard to predict but seems likely since we are ONLY 14 years into bitcoin, as you mentioned.

How the fuck do they know what is the meaning of the question?

I did see the word bitcoin one time in the article.. so there might be some relation of this topic to king daddy.

Perhaps?

Perhaps?



I am not going to claim to know much of anything. What else is new?

I do have quite a bit more cash than I would usually have from my June 2023 Binance incident that I bought back quite a bit in like three batches.. one batch was almost immediately when the BTC price went up from $28k to $140k-ish and then dropped back down to $29k-ish, and the second batch was some extra buy orders that I placed between $30k and $26k. .which surely all ended up getting filled, and I did not even have any kind of certainty that they would get filled, but they did, and the rest is just adding to my pre-existing buy orders that had already been set down to $13k-ish.. so I feel good having that extra cash, and surely hoping that I don't have to use it.. but it is there, just in case, otherwise it will likely end up just getting spent at various times in the coming year or so.. whether HLB or other more practical (or not) things.. not thinking of any investments at this time.. but you never know if something might come up that just requires some additional cash.. so I could draw some from those orders going down to $13k.. and really I have some trouble thinking that even sub $22k would be reached.. and we would have to break the don't wake me up zone first.. and sure those kinds of things do sometimes happen right before the more UPpity break ends up happening. .which is kind of the covid/mindrust situation (which was more extreme than usual)..


Oh my...



I am being stalked.

You are not really saying anything meaningful DapanasFruit - except that you are dumb.

Both for equating this thread with crypto.. when many of us are neither talking about crypto or give any shits about shitcoins.. .. even though sure, they might have some value that could be passed down.

So yeah, no problem with you selling your various shitcoins.. but in terms of bitcoin we are likely in buying season rather than selling season.. so anyone who knows anything about bitcoin should at least try to have a few, and most likely it takes a while to build a stack, so if you are a low coiner and/or a low coiner right now, you probably should be thinking about getting some BTC.

And surely some people might take several years to build up their BTC holdings to a meaningful amount because so many people might not be in a position to really lump sum invest into bitcoin, so it could take years to really get to a meaningful place in terms of your BTC stash.. .. and also time in the market tends to be a better thing to shoot for rather than timing the market, even though at this time, it would be better to have had spent a few years stacking sats rather than lump summing in, even though you likely could buy the same number of coins as the person who spent 3 years stacking sats for around the same average price as they got.. which also makes it seem like a decent time to lump sum buy into bitcoin if you were to have lump sums.. but yeah, everyone needs to make those kinds of choices, which is part of the reason it becomes way easier to build your BTC stash over several years and to show some conviction and maybe not even much if any concerns about BTC price volatility, as compared to someone who might lump sum in with the same amount of money that someone of similar economic stature spent three years buying  BTC on a weekly -ish basis.

You make some good points that there might be some other features that are touted to be better than bitcoin, but sometimes the extent to which those features might be touted as better is not so obvious, and many times in technology, if you want to displace an incumbent (which would be bitcoin in this case), then you need to be clearly and unambiguously 10x better than the incumbent, and I doubt you would argue that Monero, Ethereum or any other shitcoin is actually 10x better than bitcoin... so it has to be that level of clarity (in the ballpark of 10x) in terms of how much it is better... otherwise the incumbent is going to continue to build and gravitate value and to grown market share greater than all of the rest, in terms of the seven network effects outlined by Trace Mayer.

And just a little side note in regards to that piece of crap, ethereum that you mentioned, there really is no clarity about how many coins were premined.. so a pretty big gap in the supply, and POS is really dumb in compared with Bitcoin's POW innovation that really brings it a lot of strength in terms of sound money that really cannot be fucked with.


It sounds as if you do not know about bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not a coin just like other coins merely because it has "coin" in its name.

Shitcoiners likely to make such dumb assertions that bitcoin is just the same as other coins, and then that way the shitcoiners can pump their shit and mislead you into thinking that you need to diversify your portfolio into shitcoins... which surely is an ill-informed approach, especially known more by those who actually come to learn bitcoin better, whether they end up going through a shitcoin phase first or not...

Going through a shitcoin phase is not a prerequisite in order to learn about bitcoin, even though a lot of folks do got through some kind of shitcoin phase before they figure out that bitcoin is different.. and that bitcoin is the one that should be learned first in order to lessen the likelihood of getting sucked into bullshit and distracting pump and dump nonsense that is part and parcel of the shitcoin scene.


Bitcoin is more than just market sentiment.  You might want to study a bit into what bitcoin is before you try to summarize bitcoin as being market sentiment, even though there surely is some market sentiment, but you are not going to be a very good investor into bitcoin if you are using market sentiment to guide the way that you invest into bitcoin.  If you follow market sentiment, you are likely going to end up getting reckt and not having hardly any (if any) grounding in terms of actual bitcoin knowledge.


Through your own words, you have already shown that you don't really seem to know much if anything about bitcoin.


Sure, you can trade and fuck around with shitcoins, but it is not a good idea to be trading and fucking around with bitcoin, unless you want to get reckt.

With bitcoin you should just be figuring out ways to ongoingly accumulate it and also to make sure that you figure out ways to secure your stash.. as you might be attempting to reach target levels of accumulation.. which could take 4-10 years or more to reach depending upon from where you might be starting and if you are able to lump sum into bitcoin versus more common ways of dollar cost averaging and buying on dips.


Fuck traders.  That is a specialty field.  Not very many traders actually make money, and it is not very smart to just jump into trading if you think that you want to make money, unless you learn that kind of a specialty, and you surely do not need to learn how to trade in order to figure out how to accumulate bitcoin and to invest into bitcoin... unless you are just trying to lose money, entertain yourself and/or gamble, which might be all fun and games until you might spend several years of your life fucking around with that kind of fun and thinking that you are going to get rich when in fact you end up making no progress or getting anywhere and when you should have had been taking a more prudent and practical approach, especially when it comes to bitcoin .. which is likely one of the best (if not the best) investment assets that have ever come available.. and hopefully you are not so dumb as to waste a good opportunity by getting overly greedy and failing/refusing to take a more practical approach with such a great asymmetric bet to the upside (namely bitcoin).

I am ONLY talking about bitcoin.  Fuck shitcoins and the vague and non-specific idea of cryptocurrencies.. whatever that is supposed to mean.

If you do not make it clear that you are talking about bitcoin, then some people are going to think that you are talking about shitcoins, especially if you are mixing up your terms and making vague references to cryptocurriencies, in which an overwhelming majority (if not all of them) are either scams at worse or just deserve a presumption of being a scam, at best.

In other words, presume all projects that have its own coin/token that is not bitcoin to be a scam.... there might be some limited reasons to invest (or gamble with shitcoins), but hopefully it is less than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings that you would use to fuck around with any shitcoin.


That's true... even people who are in bitcoin might not really understand what bitcoin is, and surely shitcoiners are people involved in shitcoins/cryptocurrencies and those who use vague descriptions, such as "crypto" or "cryptocurrency" likely to not understand bitcoin enough in order to be more clear in their chosen language...and their chosen ways to make sure that they are being clear about bitcoin as compared to any reference(s) that they might want to make to shitcoins, if it is even relevant to the at-the-time discussion.


It does not hurt to talk about bitcoin from time to time and even mention it from time to time, even if many people who might be friends or relatives might not be interested in terms of hearing about bitcoin.. but sometimes, it might be helpful to mention bitcoin from time to time when it is relevant and even maybe saying.. bitcoin fixes this.. from time to time, as long as you are able to back up what you are saying in the even that they might ask any questions.


You may be caught up in Keynsian propagandistic ways of thinking in terms of believing that the money has to circulate in order to have value, but the fact of the matter is that Gresham's law is going to apply whether normies realize that they are doing it or not..... so people are going to tend to spend their least valuable money/assets prior to their more valuable assets/money, but it does not mean that they are not going to spend their bitcoin, especially if they have run out of other assets/money to spend and they need to eat or they need lodging or they want to have a new Iphone 15.

There are likely always going to be some people providing liquidity to the market, even if there might ONLY be 500k bitcoin circulating and 20.5 million in cold storage.... whatever circulating may well have to circulate a lot more... until the price goes up enough for the HODLers to decide to use it.. and yeah you are suggesting that there needs  to be incentives for sellers to even build infrastructure in order that someone will be able to sell their bitcoin in the event that they are wanting to sell their bitcoin.. ,so it won't do them any good if no one accepts bitcoin.. or there are no places to sell their bitcoin.


You make no sense Hewlet.

You seem to be talking about some kind of a shitcoin rather than bitcoin.

Sure you can hypothesize about extreme scenarios in which no one would want bitcoin and therefore the BTC price will go down, so even if what you are speculating about is possible it is not too likely to be the case, so why blabber out such nonsense as if bitcoin were some kind of a shitcoin when it is not.

Mostly likely you are typing such nonsense because you hardly have any clue in regards to what bitcoin is... so good luck with that.   Hopefully,  you bought some BTC just in case you are wrong about your fears of bitcoin's hypothesized downward spiral.

Someone is missing franky.   


I thought that we were talking about various ways that tail emission might be achieved and/or justified.. or justifiable as potentially something that might be a good thing... It may not matter that much what lightning network does as long as it is not incompatible with the main chain in terms of how many BTC had been recognized.. but sure, we might say, that we do not need more than 8 digits if we can transact on the lightning network for smaller units, but that still does not seem to address the 2048 issue in which mining rewards will go down to 9 digits, and so should that value smaller than 8 digits be recognized or ignored?


You are using the expression "appeal to authority" with a kind of literalness that seems to devolve into nuances of incorrect usage, and sure no problem that we might want to have (invite) some forum members who better "know technical things" to chime in on this particular topic.. someone other than your good buddy, franky..


No.  You are the only one in the whole world who is confused.

Sorry to mention it.

Doesn't sound unreasonable to me, except putting certainty on it...

In my investment ideas thread, on December 16, 2021, I had already made a post in which I gave odds of about 0.5%  that BTC would be more than $1.5 million in the last cycle.. which, as we know, did not end up happening... but I had already accounted for those kinds of supra $1 million prices as being possible in the last cycle.

And, I assigned $800k or above as having 2.5% odds...

So of course I admit that I hardly have any clue about where the BTC price is going to go, but if anyone is trying to predict both a date and a price, then they likely need to place it in terms of probabilities, and so sometimes, people will give a "base case" which they believe to be the most likely outcome, but even a base case might have the strongest odds, but it still might be only 30% or 40%, even though it is the base case and the scenario with the highest of odds in comparison to other possibilities still might have less than 50% odds.

Of course, most normal people do not either speak in terms of probabilities and even if they were to do that many people still would not even hear them in terms of what they had just said because people like to hear what is going to happen and what is predicted to happen, even though it may not even have high odds of happening.

Sure, there are people who actually believe their own predictions or they believe that various events provide a high level of likelihood or certainty to what they are predicting and people seem to prefer when people speak with conviction and confidence in regards to predictions. .especially if someone is holding themselves out as an expert or engaged in an interview... which the subject of price and predictions frequently comes up because people like to hear about those kinds of topics.


You are giving a lot of credit to the government being able to keep themselves in charge (or the appearance of being in charge).  I doubt that the government has as much control over the bitcoin price as you are making them out to be able to have in terms of their likely lame responses. and various problems that they have created for themselves over many decades.  It's not like they can fix the problem that they even put themselves into without somehow teaming up with bitcoin rather than fighting it.. but hey, they likely are going to have various battles and hopefully not too many of us bitcoin HODLers and/or activists end up becoming casualties of whatever bullshit hostilities that they choose to direct towards bitcoin.

I am not even anti-government, but I still can appreciate that dumb policies sometimes will come out from folks who do not really understand and when there are various kinds of desperation in society and in various governmental, societal and business systems that largely revolve around various historical abuses of fiat money systems... and yeah a CBDC would likely be another form of abuse, but not even necessarily working in their favor since bitcoin is already hear as a life boat and they might end up incentivizing more and more people to get on the bitcoin life boat if they take too draconian of measures... but yeah we will see.. I am not necessarily disagreeing that various CBDCs are going to be tried to attempt to rescue various sinking ships, but its not likely to even be close enough to either save them or that there is not even any strong evidence that bitcoin will end up being hindered (rather than accelerated by some of their possible draconian efforts which is likely going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction even if more world emergencies also are implemented. shutting down of the internet, aliens, more viruses, etc.