Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[avp2306]

I’m a bit surprised that with the new war popping up suddenly Bitcoin continues to maintain its price. I guess we’ll have to see how international markets perform tomorrow morning, but I imagine there aren’t too many people who think war is good news, except Lockheed Martin and maybe a few others. I’m watching and trying to learn…

People nowadays know that there's more bigger picture that can affect good to bitcoin rather than believing on a one country that faces crisis. That's why bitcoin price doesn't get affected by the war happening in israel.

I guess right now people are more excited about upcoming halving speculation rather than getting panic on unrelated situation.

[1715193053]

1715193053

[1715193053]

1715193053

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

TIL News / Politics mods here definitely don't like shitposting.

[goldkingcoiner]

Is the regulation good? Because I don't agree, BTC was made to not pay anything to governments, banks or something similar, because it is not fiat money, having BTC is to manage our money as we want, not to declare to governments or banks.

Regulation is inevitable. As long as the state exists, it will strive to take control of everything it can. In all other cases of regulation, is what the state regulates and what it collects taxes from done by the state? Obviously, in many cases this is not the case.

You are right that Satoshi has created a beautiful thing that does not depend on states or banks because it is decentralized. And the state has no control over the blockchain. But as soon as you spend your bitcoins on something, as soon as you exchange them for fiat money, you enter into a state-controlled space, and in this space the state regulates. Stay in Bitcoin and you can ignore the government for this part.

No, I would have to disagree. In some cases regulation is not good, nor is it inevitable. For example when it becomes completely redundant and serves as "Security Theater" (while being completely unenforceable). All that does is create more bureaucratic nonsense that we have to accept or face punishment.

[Biodom]

Found an interesting reference:

https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1692614510559809865

This shows that, so far, bitcoin CAGR did in fact decline with each halving:
174% CAGR over the last 13 years
Since 2012 halving: 108%
Since 2016 halving: 71%
Since 2020 halving: 45%

Who knows what will happen in the future, but I feel that my prior thesis of 25% CAGR starting from roughly 2024 halving and going forward(or from $100K) makes sense.
As such, Pantera's Dan Morehead with his "more than double every year going forward" prediction might be very wrong, even though I would like him to be right:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nxc1E6uBC3c

According to Dan, we would get to $1 mil/btc in roughly 5-5.5 years or so aka 2028-2029.
25% CAGR from 2024-2025 (or from 100K) predicts $1 mil/btc in 2035-2036.
Let's see what happens.

[goldkingcoiner]

TIL News / Politics mods here definitely don't like shitposting.

Lol is that real or made by the Indian shit AI? Because if it is, then thats insanely good quality.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Is the regulation good? Because I don't agree, BTC was made to not pay anything to governments, banks or something similar, because it is not fiat money, having BTC is to manage our money as we want, not to declare to governments or banks.

Regulation is inevitable. As long as the state exists, it will strive to take control of everything it can. In all other cases of regulation, is what the state regulates and what it collects taxes from done by the state? Obviously, in many cases this is not the case.

You are right that Satoshi has created a beautiful thing that does not depend on states or banks because it is decentralized. And the state has no control over the blockchain. But as soon as you spend your bitcoins on something, as soon as you exchange them for fiat money, you enter into a state-controlled space, and in this space the state regulates. Stay in Bitcoin and you can ignore the government for this part.

No, I would have to disagree. In some cases regulation is not good, nor is it inevitable. For example when it becomes completely redundant and serves as "Security Theater" (while being completely unenforceable). All that does is create more bureaucratic nonsense that we have to accept or face punishment.

I bolded two sections I liked and for the most part believe in even though they contradict each other a bit.



And I blocked that mother fucker buddy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

The price of oil may "rocket" quite a bit in the next few weeks and it won't surprise me if it reaches ATH, $150+

We have seen huge Arab-Israel troubles before, notably 50 years ago in the Yom Kippur War, that led to the oil crisis at the time.

I think people are perhaps under-estimating what the effects of this weekends terrorist attacks might be.
We could see some big escalation, certainly if a link with Iran becomes clearer and is blown up in the media daily.

The huge difference we also have now, is the internet. People all over the world know what the F is going on.
We are far more connected than we were in 1973.
This, I would have thought, will only escalate the problems.


It will thus be interesting to see how BTC reacts. Do we go up, down or sideways?


I'm always trying to zoom out but....
To kidnap and execute young unarmed kids at a music festival: absolute toilet of the world cowards.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin is currently holding up pretty well considering the world is about to see yet another expensive war. I’m not sure if the reason is because the news isn’t widespread enough yet, people are seeking shelter in Bitcoin, or this just isn’t an event that is going to move the price. I suspect this could turn into a much bigger event then it is currently though.

Republicans in congress have been bitching for quite some time about all the monetary aid the Biden administration has been sending to the Ukraine.

Republicans in congress were about to draw a hard line over the continued funding of the govt and the raising of the debt ceiling, threatening default and a shutdown if Ukraine aid was not revoked.

Then this war in Israel happens, suddenly and out of nowhere.

How conveeeeeeeenient timing (for the Biden administration).military industrial complex

Republicans will now have a very hard time threatening the govt with a shutdown and not providing Israel with aid, since Republicans are the most staunch supporters of Israel known.

Funny how that works politically, eh?

The fkn banana republic circus continues.... 🤡 🌍

Sorry it is not a Biden thing it is we gotta sell guns and weapons thing.

USA has been doing this for 100 years 1920 to now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Buddy I better be seeing some green candles soon. Or no more sandwiches.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

buddy has won all
I must bow down to buddy
my will is all gone

If buddy would take
a long vacation I may
come back to fight him.

[Biodom]

"no more sandwiches"?
lol...his software didn't ask for any 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

One million per coin.
How many Buddy Blockers,

I actually understand that buddy is not yet self-aware, but I wonder if buddy is aware enough to have at least 7 digits available for such million per coin.

27907 to 28024

that is a very tight range buddy.

Yeah.. more or less floating around the 200-week average price.

Who would-a-thunk? 

And what does the 200-week moving average mean?


Anyone?


Anyone?



 

I'confused 200-week mean $200k, somehow that is connected to filled?

Oh my....

I am surely disinclined to give you the answer.. which is actually a pretty basic concept.. so I will just give you a hint.

Look at this chart:   https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

It shows the 200-week moving average, and so what do you see in the chart?

Another hint:  The stock to flow model uses the 200-week moving average too.. but the stock to flow model has some other data in their too in order to make some claims about bitcoin.

I believe that JJG write long posts because he have enough information to share with us and he might be a firm believer of sharing is caring thing.

I write long posts because I feel that I don't have enough time to write shorter posts.

That's a pretty bold statement man!

It's not even my statement.  I stole it from Mark Twain.


“I didn't have time to write a short letter, so I wrote a long one instead.” -Mark Twain Twain

and apparently many other people made similar kinds of statements.. so I am sure that I got it from one or more of them.
>>>>>
"This famous quote has been attributed to many people—-Mark Twain, Winston Churchill, even Bill Clinton, for starters. Once a clever phrase like this comes into the language, a lot of folks start using it, and their readers reasonably figure they made it up. But according to the website quoteinvestigator.com, the first to use it was the 17th century French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal. "<<<<<<<<<<

https://www.quora.com/Who-wrote-the-quote-If-I-had-more-time-I-would-have-written-you-a-shorter-letter

I agree that someone like you can be very busy but still you give time to the forum which an amazing thing. We love your posts and once again I would say that they aren't only long but long with a lot of information. JJG, I'm sure if someone goes through all of your posts then that person can write an awesome book, especially related to economics and Bitcoin speculation.

Some people do like to do those kinds of things.. They focus on certain people and maybe they have some kind of a theme too.. and frequently they focus on more famous people, but you never know, the internet and these kinds of forums are not exactly long lasting in nature, and even in the past 10 years or so we have seen mainstream media become more and more reliant upon quoting sources from various internet forums.

by the way, I thought that you were going to write such book involving me, phillip and maybe you might find some others and do some comparison and contrasting.. ..   There still needs to be some kind of a need for an interesting hook.. so we are likely not interesting enough on our own.