I want the price to go up, but why should I buy now when I know at current rate bitcoins are created at a rate of
365 x 7200 x 10 dollars = 26 280 000 dollars / year . With all that has happened last weeks I can't see that it will get in big amounts of money in to the bitcoin economy anytime soon, 26 million dollars is only the printing press (or inflation) of newly created money, besides that we have 7 million bitcoins in circulation already, or in USD terms, 7 000 000 x 10 = 70 000 000 USD that can at any point be sold at the exchanges. You do the math.
After all things that have happened, do you see big deposit coming in soon at the big exchanges, because I can promise you this, the miners will sell at 10 dollars, even at 7-8 dollars they still make a good profit if they have pretty low electric costs. Because they have already made good money on their business, they will probably sell even at 6 dollars. Panic on that and you will maybe see 5 or even 4 dollar prices very soon.
26 MILLION dollars is a lot of money being created this coming year (aug 2011 - aug 2012), get that! Compare that to what people have invested in mining rigs, is not even close to those numbers. Miners are right now the winners because the direct buyer don't understand economics.
shure they are, but they could win more... lets see: you can produce bitcoins without putting them on the market, what means, the miners could hold the value higher and get more money... i think the aim is to get much more investors, this is only possible, if there is more in the mainstream media, whitch comes automatically, with a higher price (>20$) and with a stable increase of the value... MINERS! QUIT WITH FEAR AND THINK LONGTERM! Then you are speculating, and speculators usually lose their money in the long run. Start investing smart. If you as a direct buyer buy the newly created bitcoins from the miner, you will do two things, you are the one that pays his profit, and you are the one that will want him to invest more in his mining business. As a direct buyer you should think the other way around, you want to make the miner think, "wait now, isn't it better to invest directly in the currency?", that after that YOU have bought in, then and only then you as a direct buyer are the winner(as an investor), if prices remain at this levels the miner is the one that makes money on you holding your bitcoins, or even more true the ones that buy today. |
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+1
I agree, Its like nobody wants to even try because they know bitcoin is so secure and pointless to pursue, I would also contact the developers to get technical information to see if all the mybitcoin wallet addresses can be frozen, This way atleast it stops the coins from moving any further, I have already followed alot of my transactions to mybitcoin wallet to its final destination and there is large amounts of bitcoins on the final address and has not moved so far. I would try and see if these final wallet addresses could be frozen to stop anyone cashing them in. The one person/company who claimed to make an effort to find "Tom Williams" gave up. I dont think we should be pursing the owner as all attempts have failed, But instead finding out how we can reverse transactions made to the final mybitcoin wallet address(there are many of them). Just by following my own account I found there was atleast over a million bitcoins sitting in diffrent final wallet addresses, Something should be done...... I wish I knew how to purse this, but the truth is I wouldn't even know where to start looking or who to contact.
Departure, it seems that you have put a lot of effort to try to find those addresses. Could you share those to the Bitcoin community so that we also can follow the future flow of bitcoins transferred from those addresses. |
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man im pissed i withdrew my 300 from mtgox. this woulda been perfect to snatch up a ton of cheap bitcoins.
prices will endup around 13-14ish by the end of the week
And if it doesn't? Lets say it will end up at 8 dollars on Sunday. |
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I want the price to go up, but why should I buy now when I know at current rate bitcoins are created at a rate of
365 x 7200 x 10 dollars = 26 280 000 dollars / year . With all that has happened last weeks I can't see that it will get in big amounts of money in to the bitcoin economy anytime soon, 26 million dollars is only the printing press (or inflation) of newly created money, besides that we have 7 million bitcoins in circulation already, or in USD terms, 7 000 000 x 10 = 70 000 000 USD that can at any point be sold at the exchanges. You do the math.
After all things that have happened, do you see big deposit coming in soon at the big exchanges, because I can promise you this, the miners will sell at 10 dollars, even at 7-8 dollars they still make a good profit if they have pretty low electric costs. Because they have already made good money on their business, they will probably sell even at 6 dollars. Panic on that and you will maybe see 5 or even 4 dollar prices very soon.
26 MILLION dollars is a lot of money being created this coming year (aug 2011 - aug 2012), get that! Compare that to what people have invested in mining rigs, is not even close to those numbers. Miners are right now the winners because the direct buyer don't understand economics.
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Because miners will sell at almost any selling price (not everyone but the ones that have made heavy investments in new rigs), its the buyer (the one that put in real USD in to the exchanges) that decide the price, I would guess if they understand that, the price should be around 5 dollars now.
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Panic selling from irrational people. Buy them while they're cheap  This only works if you can find someone to sell them to at a higher price, or buy something useful with them. The irrational people are the ones who expected this to hit $1000. They didn't realize that it was just a few rational people riding it up, and were rational enough to get out once the new money stopped coming in. +1 |
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From my post below about investing directly in the currency.
"This is really easy to understand, the rig owners have already made their call, they want to mine and they are making good money doing so by selling it to the direct buyer. Why? Because they can sell their 7200 bitcoins or less /day at a profit when all the expenses are paid. Why? Because the direct buyer doesn't understand that they are in power of paying what they think is the right price, the rig owners have to make their money back, they will sell at almost any cost, 11 dollars for them are like being in heaven, I know that, because I have a mining rig my self.
The direct buyer decides who is going to make the money, the mining rig owners or them self. They can buy at 5 dollars or 10 dollars, in the end it will probably go down to the 5-6 dollar target, but it will just take more time and the extra money that you have paid per bitcoin has gone in the pockets of the rig owners. That's the real truth."
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bought a lot.
Thanks, you and the ones that buy at this level are feeding the rig owners that have a ROI (return on investment) that are ridiculously high profitable. You as a direct buyer decide how much the rig owner should be making, they including me should be making a lot less money, but the direct buyer doesn't for some stupid reason understand that. That's pretty silly. You are saying that is pretty silly. I ask you a simple question. Why? |
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Thanks! Nice charts. Any thoughts when the average miner will start losing money on their mining rig? |
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It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see. True, there is no natural correlation. It is completely the result of the systematic strategy of a trading contingent that has been in effect since about June 16, 2011. The data doesn't lie... The data doesn't lie because you will always find correlation between what ever you want to find a correlation for, for a shorter period of time. Once again you will not find a clear correlation between bitcoins and DJI for longer period of time, that we in finance call, a "real" correlation. Don't even bother following it. Bitcoins have a fundamental ground that have other parameters that you should look for. One clear correlation is cost of mining and price, start looking there. |
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Buy high and sell low! Mix things up a bit. They will not expect it and you will make out like a bandit!
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It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see. |
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Someone's clearly panic selling today. I hope you all are snapping up the bargains!
i missed the train. now i learned not to transfer funds to my bank account on the weekend. You probably didn't miss anything, it will probably be under 8,70 dollars within a week if not faster. |
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Someone's clearly panic selling today. I hope you all are snapping up the bargains!
Why is it a bargain? |
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This is really easy to understand, the rig owners have already made their call, they want to mine and they are making good money doing so by selling it to the direct buyer. Why? Because they can sell their 7200 bitcoins or less /day at a profit when all the expenses are paid. Why? Because the direct buyer doesn't understand that they are in power of paying what they think is the right price, the rig owners have to make their money back, they will sell at almost any cost, 11 dollars for them are like being in heaven, I know that, because I have a mining rig my self.
The direct buyer decides who is going to make the money, the mining rig owners or them self. They can buy at 5 dollars or 10 dollars, in the end it will probably go down to the 5-6 dollar target, but it will just take more time and the extra money that you have paid per bitcoin has gone in the pockets of the rig owners. That's the real truth.
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bought a lot.
Thanks, you and the ones that buy at this level are feeding the rig owners that have a ROI (return on investment) that are ridiculously high profitable. You as a direct buyer decide how much the rig owner should be making, they including me should be making a lot less money, but the direct buyer doesn't for some stupid reason understand that. |
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The prices are still very high, if you look at the market depth again it will show you that you only need 4700 bitcoins to get to 7,60 dollar. That is with all the data I have explained earlier a very very low number. We should be glad if it just ends at 5-6 dollars, I'm saying this as a owner to a mining rig.
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At this pace it gives us a money creation per year that looks like this 365 x 7200 x 12 = 31 536 000 dollars
If you add this things:
*All the issues with Mt.gox, mybitcoin, wallets lost at exchanges, dwolla etc.
*Cost of heavy investments in rigs the last 1-2 months, they want to cash in as a first phase of their investment
*Early adopters that bought in not many months ago at a couple of cents to a dollar (returns of 1000-10000+ %)
*Early adopters that have bought in heavy (50 000 bitcoins or more) and have profits of 500 000 dollars + already
That tells me that 31 million dollars is just created by the mining/inflation in the next year (that will need USD buyers), plus the chance of the early adopters selling massive amounts of bitcoins and all the other things I mentioned (that will also need USD buyers). Just look at the market depth (that seems to miss USD buyers).
12 dollars is a very high price with all the information we have right now.
Actually 10 dollars is also a very high price with all the information we have right now (last price 10,45 dollars with a low at 8,70 dollars). |
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12 dollars not so many hours ago, down to 8,70 dollars, and now just over 10 dollars. Another opportunity to sell over 10 dollars (as I see it)...Probably the last one in many weeks.
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Posts like these do make me laugh  I don't normally entertain them but I'm feeling frisky this morning. What I don't get is why there are so many people worried about what the price is doing atm ! it's got nothing to do with the future of bitcoin. This is my opinion and in no way am I saying that I am right or wrong but we are still in the very early stages of bitcoin. The hype has caused many non technical people and traders trying to make a quick buck to the table and the price of bitcoin is unstable to say the least. trying to predict if its time to make or break is a mugs game in my opinion !! It's all about the future  Once things are established bitcoin I predict will be very different than it's current form. People will start services and offer solutions to the non technical minded and then we will see the real worth of bitcoin. Your average Joe is not interested in block chains, crypto currency and how money works. If you asked the majority of the world how do currencies work they would probably shrug their shoulders at you or take you to the nearest shop so you can witness them buying something. Once bitcoin has been established there will be bitcoin banks, payment portals, merchant services and just about every way you can think of to spend and transfer money without having to install a client on your computer or even use a computer. If you was a smart person you would not worry about how much electric you are using or how much money your loosing right now because the smart people know that as the governments of the world fail miserably to cover up there mistakes there's a collective of people that are setting the foundations for a currency that will change the world and the way people think about money. it will give you the choice to stay with a currency owned by dishonest, selfish and destructive people that are in it to make them selves rich or to move over to a currency where you are in control. Where the people of the world decide on how things are run and are not just blindly following the crap they are fed by greedy people. Just my two pence !! Your point is right, longer term bitcoin should have a bright future and that gives the reasons that we are all here talking about it. But what would you like to have 500 bitcoins or 1000 bitcoins? Thats the different in short term. Even if what you are saying is right, timing is everything, that is something both the early adopters (as you?) and the ones that bought at 30 dollars understand... it depends on your motivation. Most that bought into bitcoin these last few months were looking to make a quick buck. If I had 1000 bitcoins I'd hold on to them and wait at least a year before moving. If you bought 1000 @ $30 as a short term investment you was very silly to do so The way you have worded your reply sounds like your holding on to a short term investment. Using phrases like"That's the different in short term" and "timing is everything" is classic day trader talk like the silly posts here titled CRASH and SELL. Wise people are in it for the long haul You don't get it, or you get it and don't want to see it. |
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