They confirmed tape-out. That's all.

Did you guys notice that KNC bid on all 7 advertising slots on this forum a few days ago:

Then the bet is immediately paid and closed. What else.

It's not 50/50 anymore since the last bet went in.

Are you betting yes or no?

A 1.0 btc bet on YES right now would yield you 1.91 BTC according to my numbers.

Personally I think they'll begin shipping by middle of September.

There's a formula for figuring that out, check the faq. It depends on when you bet and how much the opposition bets. This is a juicy bet right now because it's nearly 50/50 money either way.

Really? Where's your bet? I don't see it. Only two bets have been added since I posted that, 1.0 on yes, and 0.50 on yes. Where's your 2.0 no vote??? You posted that hours ago, didn't you? It doesn't take hours for bets to post.

Did you apply for a refund by ticket or by their Google-form from the newsletter?

Can you link us to the bet? I might want to pile in with you and make some money off these people's apparently unfounded BFL-inspired-butthurt speculation.

Ah, here it is:

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Looks like the bets are currently ~2:1 in favor of them delivering on-time, though the amounts wagered favors the 'no' side.

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

No, three months ago you found out about their plan when they went public. We don't in fact know how long this has been in planning behind the scenes, but probably at least since January, and even more likely into 2012. By the time we heard about it, things were already at a very advanced stage we must assume, for they already by then had a deal with Orsoc, which we heard about almost immediately after, and such deals take time to organize, communicate and get done, and they also had in place their design which was nearly ready to tape out, and they'd already planned their Mars miner which they executed in less than 6 weeks into a running miner, which is fairly impressive.

I have to balk at your assertion that 3 months ago KNC was a twinkle in someone's eye. This company has done an unknown amount of planning and work prior to their public debut, and we probably won't hear the retrospective on that until after they ship the first gen and have breathing room to do interviews and throw parties and the like.

Thus why I got a refund on my Avalon :\

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

You people with your BFL-induced PTSD who are now ASIC-conspiracy theorists as a result. Stop judging others by your BFL experience. BFL's failure does not make it more or less likely that another company will or won't ship.

Good, good, now start on this (much shorter but also informative) thread ^_^

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231739.0

Link your chart?

K, just explain, do you have hot air venting out of that room not being shown in those pictures, as well as the cool air coming in you did show???

Imagine they've got chips ordered and PCBs ordered, I assume they'll receive sample chips early on and sample PCBs--perhaps it's not long before they'll have a couple Jupiters to work on in actuality. We know they promised a Jupiter to that couple doing the documentary on living on Bitcoin for a month was it, and they've probably got one for developing the software and whatnot. So, may not be long now before we see a working unit in actuality, before the others are put together even. Is that not so? Are they likely to receive sample chips or not?

We don't know for sure, only proof we have is inductive evidence, and their claim that they have taped out jives with other facts, like their access to Orsoc foundry agreements. The claim makes it more likely that they will ship on time, since they've been forthright in every other aspect so far we don't yet have reason to disbelieve them. Judging an investment where information is scarce is all about inductive weightings of the known facts. These guys have already surpassed major hurdles in credibility and meeting in person and getting the prototype device running.