Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

[Xian01]

I will be really surprised if KNC keeps their timeline.
They are the next BFL. You heard it here first. 
If it makes you feel any better, Avalon is the first new BFL anyways (delays, customer service, etc.).

 I genuinely hope you are wrong about KNC entering the upper echelons of Bitcoin infamy as BFL, and to a lesser degree Avalon, but my gut is telling me you are right.

 I have a tremendous respect for the Swedes. I work with a bunch of them and they are incredibly intelligent and hard working folk, but I've got a real bad feeling, mostly due to the 28nm factor.

 I honestly think we're still at least a year away from that. Maybe as soon as 6 months.

 </0.02 BTC>

[1714188859]

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[1714188859]

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[YipYip]

It's kind of funny hearing everyone talk about ORSoC like they're some kind of master chip designing company...  They're listed on LinkedIn as having between 11 and 50 employees.  Butterfly Labs, comparably, has about 40 employees.

Finally a source of reason removing the emotion of it all

What are the facts...hmmm.... Thank you LTC for keeping me warm at night and my ASIC nightmares away

[YipYip]

Did u see the picture of KNC smiling with Josh @ the NY conference in the other thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262134.msg2845693#msg2845693


There is some real bad ju ju coming out of that picture...lolz... ;( ...lolz

[YipYip]

I will be really surprised if KNC keeps their timeline.

They are the next BFL. You heard it here first.  

If it makes you feel any better, Avalon is the first new BFL anyways (delays, customer service, etc.).

I have been staying out of alllllllllllllllllll of it (except trying to make BFL disappear )

I must say though after looking at all the facts over the last hour from somebody who has essentially not bothered and has no emotional involement with any ASIC pplz

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

[jspielberg]

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

I am guardedly skeptical (and have no skin in the game with KnC), it does seem like rapid productization is possible once the chip is available.  Bitfury projects seemed to be able to turn around their chips into miners pretty quick.  That being said, the chip only performs at about 1/2 the expected hash rate.

Frankly I put the bitfury/100TH mine projects on par for execution (so far) with Asic Miner, which is high praise (damn them ).

[Bitcoinorama]

I agree with CH ...if it looks like a duck ...quacks like a duck

I really think it is a lame duck    will be really sad but the timeframes seem insane no matter how good u think u r

I am guardedly skeptical (and have no skin in the game with KnC), it does seem like rapid productization is possible once the chip is available.  Bitfury projects seemed to be able to turn around their chips into miners pretty quick.  That being said, the chip only performs at about 1/2 the expected hash rate.

Frankly I put the bitfury/100TH mine projects on par for execution (so far) with Asic Miner, which is high praise (damn them ).

To their credit, both of those have just shut up, and got on with it with the minimum of fuss and noise, and then delivered proof. Hat's off.

[ASIC-K]

subscribed!

[Bitcoinorama]

Apparently the chips are in production right now. We know the design has been finalized. They then ship the chips to their PCB assembler and ...

Go back and do it again?  Ask BFL how easy it is to go from FPGA to 65nm, so forget 28nm from KNC.

You are officially an Idiot. (newbie)
Try reading a bit before looking so dumb.
They've got 10+ YEARS in ASIC Development, and yes, 28nm as well.
Whereas, BFL had NONE.


ALSO... (to others)Saying they missed a deadline is TOTAL BS. (the mock-up statement was an email between THEM, and in no way a deadline on machines, or indication they are behind.)
Ever stop to think that maybe they are AHEAD of schedule? More likely IMHO, Why send a mock-up, when a few first-run total machines may be days/weeks away?

Phoenix, mock-up statement was in the OG thread...

[Phoenix1969]

oops, ty!

[yeemartin]

 Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

[Anenome5]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

[MrHempstock]

Guys, relax.

They're Swedes.

[geofflosophy]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I'm going on the record as having bet 0.2 BTC on September delivery on BitBet.us. So I guess that makes me fairly optimistic about them but not so much that I'm willing to bet any serious money.

[Yecchi]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

[Xian01]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?
It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

 I'm with you on this one. I don't see how it's physically possible to have any Bitcoin ASIC shipping at 28nm by September 2013, or before mid 2014 for that matter.

 Again, I would love to be wrong on this.

[KS]

If KNCMiner delivers 28 nm on the dates they've promised, I will buy a hat and eat it.
28 nm is state of the art for billion-dollar graphics card companies.

Thoughts?
It does seem awfully ambitious. Has Orsoc delivered 28 nm anything already?

There's no way they'll finish up a 28nm miner by September.

 I'm with you on this one. I don't see how it's physically possible to have any Bitcoin ASIC shipping at 28nm by September 2013, or before mid 2014 for that matter.

 Again, I would love to be wrong on this.

I don't see any indication either way - pro/con. Also, remember that money opens a number of doors. The ASIC is the expensive part, the rest is peanuts in comparison (they won't even have to stockpile PSUs). They have very much externalized the risks to the customer and, AFAIK, expect the chip to not be optimum and have designed it (hopefully) in a way that it would still work even at a reduced capability. That would be from ORSoC.

If ORSoC is handling (all of) the back office and using their pre-existing manufacturing contracts, I don't see much reason for delay unless there is an unexpected fab issue. I have zero confidence in the front of the house though (too much "mouth running" there ).

[geofflosophy]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

Um, because you can double your coin? October 1 is not 6 months away... If you don't have enough confidence to invest even a few bitcents to back your opinion, why should anyone take it seriously? You're as good as a troll at that point.

[Anenome5]

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

Why?
Is reality going to change because someone locked up some bitcents in a six month bet?

Because if you're so sure, then it's a profit opportunity for you. Talk is cheap, but you'll discover just how sure you are by whether you're willing to take the action of betting on your belief. And furthermore, seeing those bets will serve as incentive for those who know something to bet one way or the other, creating a price signal, giving us information about what's likely to happen, thus helping curate market expectations.

And if they're only betting bitcents then obviously it's not a very strong conviction.

[Anenome5]

Can KNCMiner really deliver 28 nanometers?

I guess maybe 6 months later, if they are lucky.

If you're so sure, setup some BTC bets or something and put your money where your mouth is.

I'm going on the record as having bet 0.2 BTC on September delivery on BitBet.us. So I guess that makes me fairly optimistic about them but not so much that I'm willing to bet any serious money.

Can you link us to the bet? I might want to pile in with you and make some money off these people's apparently unfounded BFL-inspired-butthurt speculation.

Ah, here it is:

http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Looks like the bets are currently ~2:1 in favor of them delivering on-time, though the amounts wagered favors the 'no' side.

[sbfree]

Wish we could poll the people placing bets for their knowledge of ASIC chip technology:

novice/none,  intermediate (some experience), Expert (understands/works in IC/ASIC field)