But here's my bias based on psychology/sentiment: Pretty much the only thing that can calm holders nowaday is the notion that Bitcoin has never gone below the previous all time high in the following correction or bear market. Because of this, I think there are going to be a whole lot of "weak hands" in this area because it's so close to the 266 high.

Once we get past 329, price will fall down pretty rapidly.

That's true, price can be at any level, and won't affect actual Bitcoin functionality. But investors in Bitcoin itself WILL be screwed as long as Bitcoin uses PoW, because PoW will destroy 10% of Bitcoin total marketcap every year, therefore any investors holding Bitcoin will lose 10% every year, guaranteed.

The only savior will be new money coming into the Bitcoin eco-system, if there's no new money, then investors in Bitcoin will experience a perpetual downward spiral.

since we are dropping back to $0.001, will you also look at the price of $0.001 at few years ago and come back to tell us not big deal?

And an ETF or some bullshit like that won't change that fact either.

I'm a bear because I think there's a good reason to be bearish when you look at the fundamentals of Bitcoin. It has no value, you can't do anything with it other than send it to somebody else. That's why I'm a bear.

I'm a bear because I think there's a good reason to be bearish when you look at the fundamentals of Bitcoin. It has no value, you can't do anything with it other than send it to somebody else. That's why I'm a bear.

On points that I've added to your post for clarity:

1. Yes, that's market price. However, judging by the last 12 months charts and by the very last auction it seems that market value is still bellow (possibly significantly bellow) market price, isn't it? In other words, market is not in a state of equilibrium. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_equilibrium
Please note that apparent stable price (apparent price consolidation) has very little to do with equilibrium.

2. A year ago market cap was almost $14 billion. Did $14 billion flow into Bitcoin? Clearly not. Do market participants believe $14 billion will flow into it? Maybe, maybe not but as we speak it seems not many believe it will do so in the near future. So to respond: no, those 4 billion did not flow into bitcoin at that time but some of the money did flow and that was enough (in terms of amount and flow rate) for many market participants to believe/anticipate/speculate that the rest of the money will flow into, in a reasonable amount of time. We are not far from finding out if their belief was justified or not...

3. Artificial scarcity and low market depth on exchanges can only manipulate the price that much. No, that's not the driving factor. On contrary, why do you think the big stakeholders didn't distribute part of their shares so as to help the ecosystem? Please don't tell me it's because of greed because I won't buy it. Well, so perhaps because they couldn't sell? What's sad imho is that if they can't do it very soon, considering there are a max of 650.000 wallets (possibly only 2-300.000 active bitcoiners as per the excellent recent analysis of Jorge Stolfi) after about 5 years, bitcoin won't have any chance to catch up with mass adoption. We are already lagging well behind the historical growth of mobile phones http://addictivelists.com/top-10-countries-with-most-cell-phone-users-in-2014/ but remember those were back in the 1985. We should have a growth comparable with internet, FB etc. Practically mass adoption is pretty much busted imho and only a strong move followed by a hyper-exponential growth in no. of users can bring us back on track. What strong move? Huge collapse of price & major coin distribution...  toward hoards of new users bringing in yet more people and their fresh money... A huge reset of that kind  is much needed. Each passing day without that happening is exactly the opposite of success but mere a slow move toward fading-out.  That's my view. I don't think bitcoin will die but if it remains a niche product for 5-10-50-100 millions users will be much like failing when compared to it's potential...

To understand my rationale, I've used the equation of enterprise value http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_value together with some simplifying assumptions there. (Bitcoin ecosystem is an enterprise, albeit a very unusual one). On major assumption I've made is the enterprise value of bitcoin is growing and will continue to grow (albeit slowly imho). I don't have the proof it is true but I believe you'll accept it. Anyway, throw some figures at it and hopefully you'll agree that at equilibrium a heck of a lot of money will be needed to go from 350 to anything above 2-3k.

Only on Bitcointalk is it possible to find a thread where someone pronounces that those who have been negative about the prospects for the price of an investment would have been better off buying and holding, as we come to the end of a year where prices have fallen steadily by 70%!!!!

And what's even more nuts, is that most people who read my statement above will think I'm an idiot, and just don't get it!

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that this is true for most bears. Why does this matter, precisely? How does this counter the general price trend or prospects for adoption which are dwindling? Yes, many people got burnt by bucket shop exchanges and manipulation such that they no longer believe in the prospects of Bitcoin -- the brand has been tarred even if cryptos proceed to be successful. Thanks for noticing, I guess?

Seriously, this is counter to your own position... you realize that, right?

Microsoft does NOT accept Bitcoin! Price downtrend continues
Still a downtrend for long term

LMFAO!!! If only you fools could calculate losses this well, you wouldn't have lost all that money you're about to lose

The slow uptrend is still on, and possibly tomorrow will cross the 4h MACD, and maybe then you'll get your pump.

Everything is coming along just fine.

Seeds have been sown... many many different seeds, in many many important places.

When I look at how far things have come in the past 3 years, and then look at the last year, if anything I am surprised that things have happened so fast, that this year just gone, has brought so much, so quickly, we are years ahead of where I expected us to be two years ago.

Great to see the Blockchain reaching to yet another birthday, still going strong.


I think a LOT is going to (continue) to happen and start to unfold in the next six months-year, from significant legal clarification from regulators (love it or hate it) which will provide much needed clarity for some. To the development and rolling out of more useful services and ventures (along with their marketing campaigns) To better more liquid exchanges, with increased transparency and backing. To developments in usability and integration and ease of use. To developments in the entire cryptocurrency and blockchain space. As this all continues to unfold (at frankly breakneck speed) and the easier and safer BTC is to use, the more use cases that are developed, the more services and businesses that integrate cryptocurrency, the more clarity that surrounds its legal status, the more clever ways people continue to develop and reach and to make BTC useful to more people around the world, the more ubiquitous BTC will become, already, as few a people in the grand scheme of things know about BTC, there are many fold more people that know about it now than they did one or two years ago. The BTC sign is now popping up all over the place, and we have only just started to see the start of that imo, within the next year or two I expect to start seeing BTC on and in more and more iconic locations and associated with more and more well known (trusted) iconic brands. Gradually via a form of direct and subliminal social osmosis Bitcoin is working its way into the public psyche, into the public lexicon, into the legal system, into the mainstream media (even in a positive light)  into peoples screens and browsers and high streets, into peoples homes, into peoples pockets.  

The next six months to a year, will be interesting, and exciting, no matter which way you look at it.

The next two years are critical ( )