Well, at least out of all of us in these here parts, you are going to be the "safe" one.

At the same time, I am sorry to hear that you are suffering so much through your witnessing of ongoing WO member carnage.

 

I mostly agree with you. .especially if we were posting in a bitcoin ONLY thread.. but this thread is arguing bitcoin versus shitcoins and saying that bitcoin is better, so that allows for discussion in both directions. and sure, I largely agree with the conclusion of OP, but most likely there are going to be a lot of ways that opinions vary, and my overall conclusion is fuck shitcoins, but it is not like any of us could wipe them off the face of the earth or the right solution would be to eliminate all persons involved in them.. unless we find crimes involved, and even then the punishment for crimes is not death.. and also, sometimes the egregious behaviors might not even be violations of laws, but there still could be ethical transgressions and there sometimes are also civil claims that arise towards causes of actions that some people might have against other people but they still may well not end up getting charged as crimes because there might not be enough evidence that they reach the criminal standards for prosecution.


The seeming assertions of your post are strange @TakeItEasy.

It is like you are telling us that shitcoiners have higher resolve than bitcoiners, which truly does not seem to be the case, even if there tend to be some differences in terms of how shitcoiners will frequently have marketing budgets, but sometimes even their market budgets cannot keep their mostly pump and dump crap afloat.

I hate to be posting too much about shitcoins, but it seems that "we" are not really violating any WO rules since "we" are posting mostly to bash (i.e. sling mud at) BcashSV...

We cannot necessarily rely on posts staying available on self-moderated threads, so here is a fairly long post from cryptodevil from a few hours ago.

If it's not broke, don't fix it.


Wow!!!!   That's not bad.  I might have to retract my above "not broken don't fix" statement... but why?  So that I am not called a wiffle-waffler?


That's a good point.  Maybe I should go back to my earlier stance about buddy not being broke?


Seems like I read that before.

I must ask my lil selfie:  "Lil selfie, am I going through deja vu?"


Not going to lie.

Mind blown.

Did you address how we might know that those are authentic communications?

You are taking this to a whole different place when you change the example from yearly to monthly.  I was referring to an annual salary that increased from $10k to $30k over 7 years in order to allow for my point to be made through such hypothetical regarding how such BTC accumulation might affect a person if the BTC price were to go shooting up and maybe certain points in which some BTC might be shaved off at various price points along the way in order to not necessarily devolve into all or nothing thinking when it comes to BTC portfolio management - which from my perspective starts to seem more like gambling rather than investing, when guys seem to be considering price points in which they are selling all or even a vast majority of their BTC holdings..


Again.. your hypothetical seems to be misreading what I had said, even though I don't really disagree with some of your points, but the numbers that I had been trying to use don't work anymore if you are changing that $30k from annually and into monthly.

I don't really agree with several of stadus's points, but I do think that there is a kind of balancing that needs to be considered and we are likely not going to be able to come to agreements regarding how much government and/or oversight and/or self-regulation might be valuable as a kind of struck balance.

Maybe another way of thinking about the matter is that I have my doubts that there would be much if any advancement in society if there were some kind of goal to stamp out all shitcoins, and so surely there are some kinds of behaviors that are more egregious than others, and sometimes some of the practices around bitcoin and shitcoins could facilitate various kinds of obfuscation of criminal and/or fraudulent behaviors..

I am not going to claim to know where the right balance is, and even though I am not likely to talk good about very many shitcoins, especially if they have their own token, they do sometimes provide some valuable testing grounds for technological and even incentive structure innovations that could overall being beneficial whether adopting some of that onto bitcoin or maybe serving as some kind of second, third, forth or whatever layer.. and so sometimes there could be ways to invest time, money and energies in some of those kinds of projects.. yet at the same time, from my own perspective, if there is some kind of project that is not bitcoin and it has created its own token, then there is going to be some presumption against them in terms of their being a good investment or that they are necessarily providing some kind of value... and at the same time some of them do provide some value..

Even that piece of shit ethereum that serves as the motherasshole out of which many shitcoins flow, there could be some aspects of ethereum in which some learning can take place.. so it is really difficult to make blanket statements, even if we might have certain presumptions. including that many of us will find that studying many of the variations of shit products does not tend to be a good use of time for people who have other areas of interest and ONLY so much time that they are able to spend trying to figure out some of their seemingly purposefully convoluted structures that frequently seem to be purposefully designed to scam when they make them so complicated when there are likely easier (and more straight-forward) ways to go about such designs and practices.


That is a dumb metric.  You should not be attempting to determine if something is valuable or not merely because it has a lot of marketcap.


Sounds like you don't understand bitcoin if you are making those kinds of arguments.

Many folks should be trying to figure out what bitcoin is first before getting caught up in the various shitcoin talking points.

So at least if you end up understanding bitcoin, then you might have better chances to understand some of the shitcoins, and perhaps if you figure out some aspects of bitcoin, maybe spending 100-300 hours studying it, you may well end up coming to realize that you don't need to be wasting so much time trying to argue how shitcoins have some kind of meaningful and/or substantive value.. beyond being just pump and dump nonsense or otherwise convoluted nonsense that is largely just affinity scaming the king.


Again.. meaningless metrics.  You are doubling down on meaningless metrics and distracting shitcoin talking points...and trying to sound (appear) smart while you are going through your meaningless analysis.


But so what?  Who cares?  A lot of things affect Bitcoin's price including some shitcoin dynamics, but why does that matter?  why does that make bitcoin like a shitcoin?

Again, likely you need to study bitcoin first before getting caught up on meaningless metrics/indicators like the cavemen watching shadows in the cave and proclaiming those shadows to have meaning when the better ways to get meaning would actually be going outside of the cave and seeing what is actually happening rather than relying on the shadows that you see (the allegory of the cave).


Even though none of us likely really know all of the ways in which BTC price is affected, but you can still consider that there are likely some aspects of bitcoin that are contributing to its longer term price dynamics that mostly revolve around ideas of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects^** and metcalfe principles.  So yeah, there are some other short term ups and downs that can take place but you likely are going to get a bit further in your analysis by looking at the three categories in terms of attempting to figure out some of the longer term BTC price dynamic...

** Note:  network effects is related to the seven pointed out by trace mayer.

I doubt that I have ever said that bitcoin (or crypto currencies - and surely I was not talking about such a vague concept that you seem to want to insert into the discussion as if I had also been talking about such vague, meaningless and misleading nonsense)... .and by the way, what the fuck is "crypto currency?"   

Are you talking about bitcoin or something else?

If you had not noticed, I had been talking about bitcoin, and if you want to specifically talk about various other kinds of crypto currencies (such as various shitcoins or stable coins or something else), then you should be attempting to be more specific regarding your references rather than speaking in vague terms.

I have also largely answered these questions pretty clearly, even though you both don't want to accept it or you might not understand it.. but I get the sense that you are not really genuinely attempting to engage in any kind of meaningful and substantive discussion rather than continuing to throw out your pie in the sky aspirational barriers that you want to suggest need to be reached prior to bitcoin being considered as making any difference.

In other words, as I already mentioned bitcoin is already making beneficial differences around the world in terms of ways that people can store value and transact value, and bitcoin it cannot be uninvented and little by little lunches are being eaten by the king.  You can deny all that you like and continue to have fun staying poor.. and hopefully not too many people are actually taking much of what you are saying too seriously.



It already changed the world.  It is not wishful thinking.

If you had not known Bitcoin is a paradigm-shifting that solved a problem that previously had not been solvable, and sure there had been earlier attempts at bitcoin, so it did not completely come out of nowhere, but it did combine several existing technologies and may have invented some aspects of its own, such as the difficulty adjustment, that end up causing bitcoin to be a kind of unique product that had several years in which no one was really paying too much attention to it, and surely it did not have much of any kind of recognized monetary value until around the time of the May 2010 (around 17 months after the genesis block) pizza transaction.. and there surely might have been a few transactions that attached value to bitcoin prior to the pizza transaction, but the pizza transaction is recognized as one of the first transactions to give monetary value to bitcoin.


Whether you recognize the matter or not, bitcoin has already changed the world, and yeah sure I don't know the future with any kind of precision, but it seems that odds are quite great that bitcoin will continue to change the world and value will continue to flow into it because it is the soundest money that has ever existed, and little by little people are learning about bitcoin.. .not just hearing the word, but actually more and more people are gaining confidence in bitcoin, so surely if we still ONLY have around 1% adoption.. and maybe over nearly 15 years of bitcoin's existence, the adoptions seems quite large, but it is still quite small, and there seems to be decently large odds that bitcoin is going to continue to grow in its various network effect (which includes but is not limited to retail adoption), so surely many people probably correct in terms of their visionary aspirations about where bitcoin is going, and we do not even necessarily need to get into all of that if we are talking about where bitcoin already is and where it came from, and surely that will shed light into where it is likely to be going, and surely without any guarantees, but you might want to get some @DrBeer in case it catches on.


Who cares what I say, and if you can understand it or not?  I already said my opinion, and what I say does not matter that much.  You can try to better understand bitcoin or not.  That's up to you.

Yes, yes, yes, it can already be recognized that you are a bitcoin naysayer and a pessimist about bitcoin, but you also seem to be ongoingly arguing dumb-ass points (as I already stated several times) and trying to make unreachable standards that bitcoin must surpass rather than appreciating bitcoin for what it already is and from where it came in order to get some more accurate assessment regarding how it might continue to be contributing to the betterment of the world in terms of where it is going...


I already said enough.  I don't need your ongoing dumbass and disingenuine assignments regarding things that I have likely already made clear enough.. at least for the purposes of these lines of discussion.


I don't get your point, here... that is if you have any point that has not already been sufficiently discussed.  There are always some things that can be looked at in terms of progress or lack of progress, or things being built or projects being added or abandoned. 

In the end, it seems that bitcoin continues to be in a good place, and increasingly getting better in terms of ongoing growth.. even though sometimes progress can be difficult to measure without attempting to address some specifics, and you might say that transactions are not increasing or hashrate is not going up or pick some other metric in order to proclaim that bitcoin is not progressing..

..but if you have heard of the Lindy effect.. .. then you might argue that bitcoin is not continuing to persist and it is on a negative trajectory, and you are free to believe whatever you like when you are making choices about whether or not to invest into bitcoin in terms of whether you believe that it is continuing to build, survive and thrive on an upwardly trajectory or if you believe that it has crossed its peak and it is on a downward slope towards its death.  We don't need to agree on these points and we can place our money, time and energies into whichever direction that we believe is more likely.

Oh?  so you are saying that you are not r0ach?

You are no fun.

I was not even getting involved in the actual substantive assertions of the topic in regards to whether you (or roach) happened to be pro or con in regards to such off-topicness proclamations, but I recall r0ach was pro - gold and also bitter about bitcoin because I think that there were some times in which r0ach had been pumping the shit out of bitcoin and then at some point he sold too many of his BTC too soon like around $600 and then he did not buy back and then was continuing to proclaim that bitcoin was going to go below his sell point.. and obviously it did not end up going below his sell point and he seemed to become more and more and more bitter about bitcoin with the passage of time....  

come to think of it, I might not even be remembering r0ach properly.. because billy joe allen had a similar kind of situation like roach in which he pumped bitcoin and then he sold too much too soon and then BJA was a kind of big blocker with commitment, and surely quite a few of those BIG blockers bet too big on that big blocker crap.. and whether they actually believed what they were saying may have been reflected in their not coming back.




ssstttaaaaawwwwppppp it.

"We"

would not want uie poo-ie to come up with any actually good ideas.

 


that would ruin everything.


Link or it didn't happen.

Edit / Ps    it looks like Homer saved you baaaaawwwwbbbb... to at least give some kind of a context for what might have been meant by that statement.

That's bullshit.

It sound's like you are saying, "I am from the government and I am here to help."

Affinity scams are likely going to continue, and I am not totally opposed to ideas of regulatory clarity, but blanket assertions about a need for government intervention can become quite problematic, if you have noticed the way governmental regulations like to overdo things and then to frequently engage in various kinds of oppressive behaviors rather than really trying to help or to empower people.

I am not even anti-government, but I am anti-blanket statements.



Some of those are free market dynamics in which some people do end up learning when they lose money, but not everyone learns from losing money.


Now you are pumping the idea that shitcoins are needed.  Great.

King daddy does not need altcoins, but altcoins need king daddy.  How about we say it like that?  King daddy cannot get rid of altcoins.  Altcoins and a variety of attacks and affinity scams are going to continue to exist, so hopefully you are not getting too distracted into thinking that the mere fact that they are going to exist means that we need to speak nicely about them.  People do a lot of dumb things and people are scammed into shitty, inferior and sometimes completely worthless projects.  I doubt that we want regulations to completely save people from themselves, but surely frequently scammers are already engaging in fraudulent kinds of behaviors, and if they are not then there might be some value in just letting people learn for themselves if they are investing and/or buying inferior and/or worthless pump and dump crap.   

I feel as if I am repeating myself, and I know that we are not talking about selling in this thread, but sometimes there seems to be some need to make a point, which you keep talking about selling all your bitcoin which  and then you talk about holding after that which largely seems to mean that you would sell and then try to buy back later.

Let's say that a hypothetical person got into BTC in early 2016, and such person had a salary that when from $10k to $30k in the past 7 years, so if such person had not made too many other investments, maybe such person had made some mistakes along the way, but maybe ended up accumulating 2 bitcoin.... so it could be possible that such person never sells all of his/her bitcoin but instead maybe shaves off 10% of his/her then holdings at various points in time.. at $100k, at $150k, at $250k.. .. so even if there might be questions of BTC price direction, the amount of BTC that is sold is less than the profits that had been made in the integers.. and surely you could look at 2 BTC and you could say that from $30k to $100k the profits had gone up $70k per coin, so a total of $140k for that price move, so if there is a decision to sell 50% or less than the profits, you will never run out of bitcoin and you will still be able to skim off pretty decent profits to either be able to buy back if the BTC price goes down or just use such value for consumption purposes.. .

yet, I still would suggest that if you are still in accumulation stages, then it is problematic to be selling too many BTC on the way up and expecting to be able to buy back lower.. but if you think you got it all figured out regarding when to sell and when to buy back that is up to you.. and I think that I probably have already deviated enough from the topic in terms of talking about selling ideas, since this thread is not about it and I still think that conservative selling on the way up if any is still somewhat potentially somewhat still aligned with ideas and accumulation focused theme of this thread.

Easier said than done.  Unless you have a lot of confidence in your various other investments (so I guess I am speaking towards diversification.. but not into shitcoins), it can be quite difficult to see your investment go up 50x or more, and sure I am not even claiming my own to currently be up more than 27x, since I like to use $1k as my average cost per BTC... .. and so you can imagine  that at some point there's gotta be some shaving off, and figuring out how to deal with the volatility without screwing things up.. ....

So let's say for example, in 2003-2013, you had an annual income of that increased from $10k per year and by 2013, it had gotten to $30k per year, and so through those years you had been investing around 10% of your income into various kinds of investments, and so by the time 10 years passed, your investment portfolio had gotten to about $40k.. which would be around $20k invested and the other $20k came from price appreciating, so you got around a doubling of the amount that you put into it over those 10 years. 

Let's say around 2013, you decided to invest into bitcoin, and since you had already built a decent traditional investment portfolio that was 130% your annual income, you thought that you were in a position to be more aggressive to build up your BTC portfolio, so you spent around 3-4 years building up your BTC portfolio, and so maybe by the end of 2016, you made several mistakes yet you still had been able to accumulate 20 BTC  for around $10k, so that would be $500 each, and also maybe it would have been around 20% of your total investment portfolio, with the assumption that maybe your investment portfolio might have still grown from $40k to $50k..

So maybe at that point you start to believe that you had been sufficiently aggressive to accumulate some BTC in light of your overall situation.. so at that point, you start to moderate your BTC investment, so that you are equally distributing your value between your traditional investment portfolio and BTC.. so out of your 10% investment allowance you are further dividing that into various categories so that you have traditional investments and BTC in an attempt to maintain something like a 10%-20% allocation to bitcoin  and 80% to 90% goes to your other traditional investment assets.

At that point in late 2016, we should be able to appreciate what ended up happening with bitcoin.. Bitcoin had already been starting to go up quite a bit between early 2016 to late 2016 from $300-ish to $800-ish, but if we are presuming that you made some mistakes with your BTC, so your average cost of BTC is still $500 per BTC, but by the time 2017 plays out, you still were seeing around 40x price appreciation on your bitcoin and even with the correction back down to $3k in 2018, you were still up 6-8x at the lowest points of the BTC price, but there still could have been times that you could have been scared out of your continuing to hold BTC.. and maybe even questioning if you should buy more or not or even questioning if you should sell some.. but still right now with our current $27k-ish prices, you would be around 54x in profits.

I am not even saying that any of it is easy because even if we assume that your regular investment portfolio had doubled again from $50k to $100k, your BTC allocation still would end up taking up a disproportionate amount of your total investment.. which would be around $540k or more if you had maybe continued to accumulate BTC, but if you had not chosen to accumulate more BTC you still would have had ended up flippening your other investments with bitcoin going from being around 1/5 the size of your overall portfolio, and then it becomes around 5x of your total holdings.. depending upon how you had chosen to manage all lf that..and surely if your regular job ends sup still being around $30k or maybe even $40k per year, you might start to consider that you are starting to get quite close to fuck you status, and maybe even you might have been tempted into selling some of your BTC when they were higher value because you had though that for sure at some point you had gotten passed entry level fuck you status, which really should be considered to be around 20x to 30x of your annual income (needs) so if you had been living on $40k, then $800k to $1.2 million would be getting you into entry-level fuck you status.. which largely just means that you should be able to quit your job and live off of the proceeds (or the passive income of your investment portfolio).

There are a lot of ways to screw up however, you are balancing the situation and also how you are valuing the various assets that you hold. and part of the reason that I prefer to value my BTC holdings based on bottom values (such as the 200-week moving average) rather than top values has to do with some of the concerns about either cashing out too early and not knowing where to put your value so it holds value or just not being able to account for the volatility of BTC going from $69k down to $15,479 and then coming back up to our current price of $27k-ish.


Yes.. and of course, our previous ATH is likely in a pass through range rather than any kind of an end-goal.. .. and even if you might have some end goal in mind of $100k or $200k or $500k or some other number, you still have to figure out how are you going to manage your BTC holdings in such a way that you are NOT losing too many BTC by trying to get out and then back in and then maybe even ending up not playing those kinds of strategies very well.

Roach?  

Is THAT uie-pooie?


Missed you so much!!!!!


#Nohomo.

How's your gold doing? #forreals

Of course debasing of the dollar is an ongoing factor that could end up misleading our assessment of both relative value and even the creation of meaningful (or real dollar) price performance targets

It is more difficult to account for these matters in shorter-time frames and it could become confusing to figure out whether we are in profits or how much we are in profits relative to other places in which we could have put our monetary value (as contrasted to where to put our time and our energies too.. which may be more realistic measurements).  

We know that in the longer term we will likely be ahead, even accounting for dollar debasement, yet it still might not be easy to measure in the shorter term, but in the longer term we might be able to figure out some of it in terms of goods and services or other quality of life matters.

In some sense I was attempting to describe some kind of a range in which some somewhat normal (or maybe even somewhat low income) members might choose to invest into bitcoin in such a ways that they might have been able to conclude that they have already established a budget, and surely there are consequences to their chosen level of investment into BTC, yet the extent to which they can even engage in BTC investing strategies that are even more aggressive than their chosen level might depend in part upon how much they figure out their own cashflow (and expenses) with considerable detail, so the more strongly they understand their own circumstances, the more likely that they are going to be able to cross into higher levels of aggressiveness in their BTC investment without ending up recking themselves or overly putting their BTC portfolios at risk.

Another angle towards ongoing BTC investing, including that bitcoin remains quit a great asymmetric upside bet, so even if someone ends up choosing an overly whimpy BTC investment approach, they still likely enjoy relatively decent odds of being able to prosper from their choice towards having had invested in bitcoin, stacking sats through the years and even HODLing during worrisome periods.



I am probably ONLY open to other ideas up to a point that real people are genuinely trying to work through opinions that they truly hold and/or that they are grappling with actual facts rather than making things up... so I try to be open within what I believe to be some kinds of attempts at reasonable and realistic parameters. 

I don't remember anything in particular in regards to June 9, 2023, even if I glance at BTC price charts and also if I glance at my posts from that day.


Without knowing too many of your details, it is difficult to know if there might be some ways that you might be able to adjust your particular approach... and at the same time, it likely is not a good idea to get into too many particular details.. even though sometimes we can talk about percentages or maybe present a hypothetical of someone who might have gotten started into bitcoin in mid-2016, but might have taken a certain approach and then made some adjustments along the way. .and then is considering further adjustments based on either changes in his/her particular situation or maybe even changes in views about bitcoin and/or how to approach bitcoin investing.

Let's say if someone had got into bitcoin in April 2016, and they had invested $10 per week, and based on about a $3,920 investment into BTC, by now, they could have accumulated around 1.2 BTC.  And, so maybe you are kicking yourself right now because whatever you did, did not result in that level of BTC appreciation, so I personally would suggest to get started doing that, and if you want to try to attempt to make up for your not having had been able to accumulate 1.2BTC by now based on such earlier investments, then maybe you might want to try to be more aggressive in the neighborhood of $100 per week rather than $10 per week, and surely you might still take a long time to get up to 1.2BTC or maybe you will never be able to accumulate 1.2 BTC, so in the end, you have to just figure out the level of aggressiveness that you feel sufficiently works for you and your circumstances without ending up putting yourself into a situation in which you will get reckt or even that you might get reckt because you ended up being too greedy.


because we are in a forum, which allows for members to discuss and to attempt to address a variety of angles, which might even include their sharing their own experiences and differing opinions.  As much as you like to believe, members do not necessarily agree or even understand the trade offs, even with some kind of a semingly simple proposition of buying the dip and HODLing.


Even you did not really answer the question very well. 

It could be said that the BTC price has been dipping since November 2022.. but this thread was started even before that (in April 2019) because there were dips even back then.. but April 2019 until June 2019 was actually a pretty significant period in bitcoin in which the BTC price largely went up exponentially at about 3.5x in such a short period from $4,200 to $13,880.  Quite amazing, and maybe buying the dip was NOT that great of an idea, since the BTC price ended up correcting back down to nearly it's starting point.. but then also seeming to be a kind of fluke in March 2020.. to correct all the way back down to $3,850 (quickly, but still it may well count).


Even though you attempted to summarize the concept of HODL, you also don't seem to understand the idea of HODL.  Sometimes HODL can apply to buying on the way down and then running out of money but the BTC price still keeps dipping.  HODL does not ONLY apply towards UPwards BTC price moves.


Exactly.  Each person has their practice in regards to their BTC accumulation and even their BTC maintenance and/or liquidation that may or may not end up changing with the passage of time, because forever is a long time to HODL that may or may not end up playing out as planned.. but I suppose if you hide your keys, even from yourself, then it is much easier to accomplish a "HODLing forever" plan.  It does not sound like a great plan, but you are free to make and execute whatever plan that you like.. including that you can choose to not plan, which some people engage in that kind of behavior too..


Your overall theme sounds good, but there is something wrong with your example.. because if someone bought 5 BTC for an average price of around $12k, that person would have spent around $60k for those 5 BTC, so there surely could be ways to sell some of the BTC and buy them back and to end up with more BTC.  So you are seeming to give away too much by assuming that they are able to sell at or near the top.. and if anyone ends up selling at or near the top, they end up having a lot of options to buy back lower if they did not end up spending it for consumption purposes and they kept that money in their investment portfolio.

At the same time, you are correct in saying that there should be no expectations to be able to buy the BTC back lower so maybe the amount that is sold would not end up being very much.. so maybe a total of 1 BTC gets sold at various points between $30k and $60k.. and so there has to be some desire to buy that BTC back at prices lower than purchase, but if someone ends up getting distracted into consumption or not really knowing when or how to get back into a buying and/or accumulating mindset, then that person might have ended up losing his/her BTC accumulation mindset which should not have had been entered into through the selling anyhow...especially if they are supposedly telling themselves that they are in BTC accumulation mode..

 and it likely could have been much better to just continued to keep accumulating another 1 to 3 more BTC in the last couple of years, even if the cost per BTC ended up being way higher so maybe by now the investment ends up being $120k with 7 BTC rather than with a higher average cost per BTC (of $17k per BTC rather than $12k per BTC), but still likely in a better position to have more 7 BTC rather than 5 BTC, especially if their goal was to continue to build their BTC size.. so in that sense you are correct that if your goal is to build your BTC portfolio holdings, then the better strategies are to continue to buy rather than selling and expecting to be able to buy lower, which just ends up likely screwing things up, even though on paper it seems like it could work to accumulate more by selling at higher prices and buying back lower.. but in practice.. it is way less certain than a more consistent and ongoing BTC buying approach.

Sure, there is more to come in terms of bitcoin's world changing likelihood.. but it seems to me that bitcoin has already changed the world, and there is just more to come .. more and more and more... .. .while at the same time, the cat is already out of the bag in terms of bitcoin already having had established a paradigm shift in regards to the way in which value is stored, secured and transmitted.... I doubt that the cat can be put back in the bag, or the genie back in the bottle or the toothpaste bag into the tube.


I don't mind hearing whatever you have to say, but you are not really saying anything important and/or meaningful.  

It seems that you are trying to shift the burden onto bitcoin advocates to show bitcoin as having had already taken over the world in some kind of a microcosm, and if bitcoin is not able to show such a thing, then bitcoin is not important and/or meaningful in terms of its advancement.

So, yeah, go ahead and believe your unrealistic standards in regards to what you believe is needed to be shown in order for bitcoin to either be successful or to be on the right path of ongoing success. .. and in the meantime, while you are ongoingly denying bitcoin's importance, it will continue to eat your lunch and the lunch of your bitcoin naysaying banker and governmental buddies.

The positive news is not going to hit you in the face, especially if you are failing and refusing to see it and you are largely just focusing on the various things that bitcoin has not done... or that you believe bitcoin has done or that you believe that there is not enough evidence of bitcoin's ongoing progress in order for you to be satisified.. so if some of us are telling you that you better make sure that you are invested into bitcoin, you like to say that is off topic and not answering your questions... well you better go somewhere else, if you believe that you need further information to satisfy your curiousities.


First of all.  Fuck shitcoins.  Who cares about cryptocurrencies? and try to stay focused on bitcoin if you are able to.  Bitcoin is the ONLY one that really matters, and the only one that creates any kind of threat to the fiat system as we know it.

Second, the dollar can be around for a long time, but little by little its lunch is continuing to be eaten by bitcoin, and so sure it could take a while for bitcoin to take its place.. and whether it does or not, bitcoin is the stronger of the two currencies and value will continue to flow into it, whether you want to recognize that current and ongoing dynamic or not.


You seem to be wanting to be shown a specific thing, and if you cannot see ongoing bitcoin adoption, then you are the one who seems to be blind (and perhaps even purposefully so).. and yeah, maybe you have to be able to look and to identify certain changes in way that bitcoin is getting into more and more of the discussions and also getting increasingly financialized.. which is truly only one of the seven network effects.. as I referred to earlier.

There are transactions going on with bitcoin and there are various ways that they can be shown on the blockchain and also through lightning network, so it cannot be easy to particularize how much transactions might be taking place in any particular area.. or country wide or city wide.. even though there is likely quite a bit of variance. .and I surely am not claiming high levels of bitcoin adoption, so far we likely ONLY have less than 1% world-wide adoption, and even those who have adopted bitcoin are likely low coiners rather than nocoiners like you.  .. but even by definition, the low coiners are probably going to realize at some point that they don't have enough bitcoin.. not that any of us even need a lot of bitcoin in order to be advantaged by bitcoin's asymmetric upside nature.

So, yeah it is on you in regards to  the extent to which you need to see certain kinds of evidence or to have certain kinds of questions that you have answered prior to gaining confidence that bitcoin is going to be something in which you would like to invest.

I doubt anyone is really going to hold your hand, especially if you are fighting the whole way and even seeming to purposefully ignore ongoing bitcoin growth and developments... and surely I am not going to spend time listing them out for you.


I probably cannot explain it to your satisfaction, but the essence of bitcoin's contribution to the space of money is that it improves incentives based on its not being controlled by anyone and having a fixed supply, so a lot of corruption comes from the creation of money that advantages some people over others but not in connection to their proof of work.. so bitcoin is more pure in the sense that no one can create it.. even though there surely are going to be people, governments and/or financial institutions trying to create the same kinds of corrupt fractional reserve systems on top of bitcoin, but one of the powers of bitcoin is that any of us should be able to claim our own coins, so if some people are entering into contracts that allow others to control their coins, then they may well not be getting any advantage by those systems, and potentially those kinds of systems could end up losing their own credibility if they engage in practices in which they do not have the BTC that they claim to have...or if they do not allow people to take possession of their coins. which people should realize that they are putting themselves into trouble if they are using systems that are not obligated to allow people to take possession of their coins.

That comes off as a bit bearish and/or conservative... which is actually right around a 3x price increase from the previous cycle top, and then the following cycle to be around a 5x price increase...

Even though I don't like to get too wrapped up in tops, but something is wrong with such ..

or maybe those are 4.5x tops and just using 2017 to 2021.. top to top as being 4.5x and then saying we are 4.5x from here on out.. top to top.

That would then get us to similar numbers $69k x 4.5 = $310k-ish.. and then 4.5x more for the next cycle would bring us to $1.4 million.. but since we might want to tone it down a bit, we are going to just say $1 million.

I still don't like it, even if it might end up playing out in such a conservative and/or whimpy way.

There is no reason to get overly excited and to exaggerate what it expected, but at the same time, we can still put those projections in the location of strange and weird... and maybe overly attempting to predict around "round numbers."..

King daddy does not do round numbers.. even though people frequently make those kinds of claims about it supposedly getting stuck at round numbers.. which is just bullshit in the whole scheme of things.. even if there might be short-periods of seemingly stuckedness..

TLDR: (this one's for you Hueristic)  I don't like it.

Edit: After I wrote my whole post, and actually looking at the chart more closely, I see that it seems that I am mostly just quibbling with @Paashaas's interpretation of the chart rather than what the chart actually shows.. but since I already got it in my head that "I don't like it," I am sticking with my story.


You truly are amazing, if you do say so ur lil selfie.


That sounds like a mining death spiral.

I think that it is getting close to the time that "we" should panic.

OMG.


That's what I was trying to say... but I just couldn't get it to come out of my lil mouthie.. (or is it mousie?).

The idea is not bad, and it combines the concepts of DCA and buying on dips, so it ends up being a kind  of hybrid DCA approach, and if someone is in their early stacking stages, they might not be benefitted by that kind of a level of DCA reduction.. but sure, each person has their own considerations in terms of how heavily they may end up choosing to stack their sats and also what they might consider reasons to transition into purposefully lessening their DCA stacking.

A thing that I like to think about is how close that any of us might be getting to our own definition of fuck you status (you can see my projection of a kind of default entry level fuck you status here) and with that we might be able to project how many coins we believe that we might need at certain points in time, so whether or not we think that we are able to reduce our DCA approach based on higher prices might be seen in light of how close we consider ourselves to be in terms of fuck you status, projections of fuck you status and/or considerations whether we might feel that we need to stack beyond our targets in the event that BTC prices might not play out as bullishly as we might have had anticipated.


Hopefully you do not end up selling too many BTC too soon, and a lot of BTC HODLers have learned to modify how much they plan to sell.. and sometimes they move down from their ideas of selling 100% to selling 50% and then sometimes they realize that maybe they should not sell any more than 20% to 40%.. so there can be some variation and even some decisions to cut back on the idea of selling - especially since many times the previous ATH is not really a place to sell.. it is known as a kind of deadman's zone in which the BTC price tends to pass through.. of course, no guarantees...and maybe that is why sometimes folks end up selling too much of their stash at previous ATHs but then the BTC price does not end  up revisiting those previous ATH prices when it drops back down.. your milage will vary for sure.


Part of the reason that your system likely worked out so well, @lienfaye, is because many times we have no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go, even if it is going up in exponential kinds of ways.. so there are plenty of times that it does not really pay off to be engaging in too many tactics to reduce your DCA in too dramatic ways..   The more BTC that you accumulate, the more at liberty you will start to feel that you are able to reduce some of your DCA and/or increase your DCA.. but it does not seem to be a very good beginner move.. even for someone who had already been accumulating bitcoin for 3-5 years, if they are far from getting even close to fuck you status, then there may be no real value to be reducing their DCA in any kinds of significant and/or meaningfuil ways merely because the BTC price went up.

Yes.. ethereum is different from the vast majority of other shitcoins because it is the mother shitcoin out of whose asshole many other shitcoins flow. (thank Saifedean Ammous for this expression)  Does not make ethereum very special in terms of not being a shitcoin, being worthy to invest into in the long term and/or not being vulnerable towards going to zero quickly.


You are already starting out bad in your description of what bitcoin is.  

bitcoin is not merely a leading coin.. it is the coin that set forth the standard, and the other various shitcoins are trying to emulate it or to proclaim that they are better, and maybe they are not really doing anything but figuring out a way to print their own coin to make founders and other early adopters rich in the style of various ponzi schemes.

So bitcoin is in another category. .to the extent that it cannot be replicated in ways that shitcoiners try to set forth as if it were actually possible.


I agree with this last part of your post.. even though from my perspective the set up in order to reach your conclusions was not that great.. but hey whatever, you do you... and I will do me and object from time to time.

I cited your post for visibility. .

and your links were kind of screwed up too.. For the image, you were supposed to but the img tags in there.. and instead you had put url tags...

Anyhow all fixed right now.. and I don't personally have any kind of concern about some miners suffering or getting pushed out if the BTC prices don't go up as much as they are gambling on it.. and mining does seem to be a bit of a cut throat game in terms of some of the more efficient miners are going to be able to continue to operate and some less efficient miners may well get forced out... but who knows.. there have already been quite a bit of purging out of miners in the last correction, so it is difficult to determine if some miners might be gambling too much upon something sparking BTC price rises, such as a ETF approval.. but they do frequently seem to ramp up their hashpower prior to the halvening.. so we can see that they have a bit more than 6 months to continue mining with the current level of rewards.. .when the halvening kicks in and then some of the miners might shut down or slow down at that time on purpose because the reward has suddenly halved (this time around from 6.25 BTC to 3.125).