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2341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do you think we are in the bubble? on: February 03, 2013, 03:38:11 PM
Could we be seeing the "Bull Trap" now? (jan 2013 dip)







Do you really compare every commodity or stock chart to that schematic?  For christ sake, it's a nice consensus for human emotions at various moments, but reality is quite a bit more complex than this....   I can only imagine how often you would have thought that we were in a bull trap in the earlier phases of apple (not that I am an apple fan).
2342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 02, 2013, 04:06:34 AM
I think I'm a lttle confused about the term "market cap". There are no "shares outstanding". Can this term be used in forex?

I don't think it is an official term, but it is being used to describe 'BTC price' * 'BTCs in circulation'.
Its like looking at the value of the monetary base of a currency in terms of another currency (here BTC to USD)
2343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 02, 2013, 03:48:59 AM
Down...

Meh, its only down a little.  We could be plateau-ing here for a bit before we move up again.  
I think its likely we'll have support at $19.5.  If not there then $17.7, but I don't think we'll go that low.
2344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 02, 2013, 02:30:51 AM
Think of it as looking at a BTC price chart adjusted for inflation against USD.

So essentially, what you're looking at is the real value of Bitcoin hitting the all-time high of 2011, relative to USD.

Remember, Bitcoin does inflate.

This gives you a better indication of the actual, real, inflation-adjusted value of BTC at the moment, as opposed to the nominal price of about $20.00 USD currently.

Basically, Bitcoin is as at least as valuable as it was at the high in 2011, and looks like it is even beginning to surpass it.

I think that's kind of a big deal... like breaking through the all time high of $31.00/BTC here...



I get your point, but why don't you create a inflation adjusted Bitcoin market cap graph?
"Basically, Bitcoin is as at least as valuable as it was at the high in 2011, and looks like it is even beginning to surpass it." So check your inflation statement against it. Nethertheless do you even understand blockchain.info's market cap graph? Its for the lulz. And you try to get serious on it.

inflation adjusted bitcoin market cap = btc price, no?
I think the market cap is a good thing to look at.  Probably the best way to judge bitcoin is something between btc price and market cap.
2345  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Positive Bitcoin write-up on Zerohedge on: February 01, 2013, 01:37:34 AM
I guess in order to actually disrupt the network, you would need to crowd-out most transactions, so you would need to consistently mine several blocks in a row, not just 1 in 2. So, even if you get say ~80% of the network power, Bitcoin could still be usable as long as the blocks are normally less than 20% full (and all the transactions can be crammed into 1-in-5 blocks).

Couldn't the attacker just invalidate previous "correct" blocks with transactions by not including them in their (longest) chain?
2346  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee) on: February 01, 2013, 12:16:47 AM
AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  Grin

lol yeah, I was more excited than with normal trading  Smiley
2347  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee) on: February 01, 2013, 12:10:23 AM
Only slightly too late  Grin
If I am correct, the last trade was $20.41001
I missed the price by slightly more than a cent  Shocked

$20.43

Wow, i have $20.43, anyone closer?    Shocked

No, you win, I had 20.371 , congrats!
2348  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee) on: February 01, 2013, 12:03:07 AM

Only slightly too late  Grin
If I am correct, the last trade was $20.41001
I missed the prize by slightly more than a cent  Shocked
Any prizes for the runner-up ?  Grin
2349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 01, 2013, 12:00:27 AM
Dump dump dump !!!!

Yeah well, too late, so close , missed it by a cent Shocked Shocked
2350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 11:58:33 PM

actually, 25 BTCs would do the trick too at the moment, too bad I can only trade in Euros  Roll Eyes
2351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 11:54:22 PM
Could somebody please dump 1230 BTCs over the next 8 minutes?  I have got a prize to win....

link please and we'll think about it

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138028.msg1489038#msg1489038

$20.371
2352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 11:52:12 PM
Could somebody please dump 1230 BTCs over the next 8 minutes?  I have got a prize to win....
2353  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Positive Bitcoin write-up on Zerohedge on: January 31, 2013, 04:09:07 PM
I am with Gabi on this one.  Yeah, sure government can be more inefficient with money on average, but if you think this means they are all idiots who can't get anything done ever, you are sorely mistaken.  And as noted, there are corporations out there too...

Also, for the calculations, you are all working with outdated info.  The new proven ASICs are <$2000 for >60GH/s.  Sure the network difficulty will go up, but a lot of the hardware investment already done in the network is now worth a lot less dollar/computing power-wise.
2354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin nearly reaching its highest ever market capitalisation on: January 31, 2013, 03:25:23 PM
We broke highest ever market cap  Shocked
2355  Economy / Speculation / Re: price breakthrough!!! btc > 20 USD!!! on: January 31, 2013, 03:16:09 PM

No, Avalon will not sell them, they are using WalletBit.

Not sure if serious.. but if you are, just think how walletbit will pay avalon their dollars then. Hint: MtGox.

I thought Avalon claimed some of their hardware dealers were taking BTC directly?

And then those hardware dealers convert (probably most of) their BTCs to dollars...
2356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 09:56:51 AM
Less than 300 coins to gain 30 more cents, this is silly!
2357  Economy / Speculation / Re: price breakthrough!!! btc > 20 USD!!! on: January 31, 2013, 09:20:40 AM
Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley

The past few days the whole of this forum has transformed into a combination of price speculation and ASIC hype!

Do anyone even remember how it was like when there were discussions in the devellopment sections?

Welcome to the roaring 20'ies, which was followed by?

I'll take that crash in the 30's  Cool
2358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will never reach $20 again on: January 31, 2013, 09:17:16 AM
There is just one thing I don't understand: OP is an economist, and he didn't get it right?  Huh  
 
Cheesy
2359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 09:13:24 AM
Anyone like me who still can't get his eyes adjusted to the "2" in the most significant digit?

I'd say that only seeing 12k coins on the goxlive chart is stranger.

Wow yes, very low ask volume.  Looks like my 20.31$ prediction for the 10BTC price will be too low, this thing could go up fast!
2360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: January 31, 2013, 08:55:53 AM
We just hit that thang!
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