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JJG: thank you for the invitation to have another go at calling the top. However having gotten it wrong once (and very happy to be wrong), I do try to avoid making the same error twice in a row.
Bitserve: apologies my comment was not directed at you.
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Bitcoin gets an “exceeds expectations” as we round out 2020 $50k predicted for May 2021  |
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I tested the address with some dust and that transaction is happily sitting there unconfirmed so definitely an issue at the Bitstamp end.
That might be the reason. That test transaction might need to confirm first. Nah the transactions aren’t linked. The first transaction is from Bitstamp and the second transaction is from my wallet. Maybe your socialist government stole them and called it a tax. Yeah. It's gone. Buy moar. My socialist government that eliminated Covid? Oh yeah, that one. |
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Righto the missing Bitstamp transaction popped up in the mem pool about five hours after it was supposedly originally sent and confirmed shortly after. So all good. I blame the robots.
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I tested the address with some dust and that transaction is happily sitting there unconfirmed so definitely an issue at the Bitstamp end.
That might be the reason. That test transaction might need to confirm first. Nah the transactions aren’t linked. The first transaction is from Bitstamp and the second transaction is from my wallet. |
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Edit: something like this happened to me with another exchange back in the day. Their hotwallet ran out of bitcoin but the software kept on processing withdrawals...
Hairy, try here, if your transaction comes out you will see where it is stuck. https://mempool.observer/#current-mempoolCool thank you Anyhow the TX ID is throwing an error: “Error: Could not find your transaction in the bitcoin network. Wait a few minutes before trying again.” I tested the address with some dust and that transaction is happily sitting there unconfirmed so definitely an issue at the Bitstamp end. |
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These comparisons are a bit bullshit because I put my investment in 7 years ago and my returns are more like 30x (excluding trades). I possibly would have been better off with one of those tech stocks over the same time period. Of course I expect 2021 to be very good indeed. |
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Hmm Bitstamp is saying it has "finished" my transaction (send from Bitstamp to my address) but the transaction is not appearing on the blockchain. This is after I validated the transaction with Bitstamp by email so it is not waiting on confirmation from me. It is not even showing as unconfirmed.
Any suggestions as to what might be happening? Does Bitstamp take awhile after they say a transaction is "finished"? It has been about an hour and there have been 5 - 6 blocks since.
did they give you a tx id? Found the tx id. Searched a couple of major block explorers. No results. I guess I am opening a ticket with Bitstamp. Edit: something like this happened to me with another exchange back in the day. Their hotwallet ran out of bitcoin but the software kept on processing withdrawals... |
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Hmm Bitstamp is saying it has "finished" my transaction (send from Bitstamp to my address) but the transaction is not appearing on the blockchain. This is after I validated the transaction with Bitstamp by email so it is not waiting on confirmation from me. It is not even showing as unconfirmed.
Any suggestions as to what might be happening? Does Bitstamp take awhile after they say a transaction is "finished"? It has been about an hour and there have been 5 - 6 blocks since.
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So what you are saying is it could go either way?
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Five figure again 🤪
Yeah!!!!!! At a certain point, it seems that there is a decent sign that we are moving back up again. But, hey, I don't really hold any great expectations that we are going to be able to break above $13,880 at any time soon. On the other hand, it would be nice to never ever ever see 4 digits again... But what are the odds? Less than 50%, perhaps? Maybe gotta wait for JSRAW to confirm with us that we are out of 4 digits? No? waiting.............  Odds that we have left 4 figures behind forever: Today: 10% 1 October: 30% 1 November: 50% 1 April 2020: 60% 1 November 2020: 70% 1 April 2021: 80% 1 November 2021: 90% Just sayin |
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This is gross! ... Who uses Handcuffs?  I'd go for cable ties...  If only Notlambchop could see us now |
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.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.
Yes, but it is just strategic thinking 101. For a more advanced course consider that rich rarely sell their assets and btc is precisely that-an asset. When you sell an asset, you get hit with the cap gains tax (at least in US), I think that at least Germany and Portugal (maybe Denmark as well-not sure) don't have cap gains on btc sells. What do rich (like Musk) do? They borrow against the asset in $$. Let's say that instead of selling 20% of btc at 20K (for easier calc) you borrow 20% of the net current value at yearly 5% (realistic numbers). So, essentially, you got cash equal to 20% of your stash without selling anything. If btc goes down, you keep paying the loan from your fiat cash flow (it has to be significant and positive, of course). If btc goes up, for example 100%(to 40k, quite realistic), you sell 10% to buy back your loan (note that you only need to sell 10%, not 20). The end result-you have 90% of the original stash, was able to do something with 20% of the original value (invest, buy a house, etc), paid only less than half tax (comparing to the original tax) with less than half because you can possibly deduct something of the loan interest, not 100% sure about that. How do you propose to manage margin calls? |
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Ok I’m calling the top for 2020 at $23,777.
Let’s see how well this comment ages. I am not trading this (hodl only) but just calling the top for fun. YMMV.
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that said...if you work for a paycheck and your current work is not necessarily a dream job, when to retire?
options:
1. your btc is worth 10 year salary
2. your btc is worth 30 year salary
3. your btc is worth 100 year salary
4. (just for JJG) your btc is worth X year salary, but you consider btc price at a 200wk average, where X is 20-30 years.
I think the often quoted number is close to or above 25. So your BTC is worth 25 years of your salary. The more accurate number is actually 25 times your annual expenses. If you spend all of your salary, then it is your salary. If you spend less and save, this number can be lower. If you have debts, then you have to get rid of those first or include it in your calculations. 30 is a good fudge number to round up to. If you have that, you can retire. Edit: This assumes your retirement money is invested in traditional markets and you are withdrawing a maximum of 4% annually. For me, it is more money than my wife and I can earn in our remaining working lives. In our relationship I couldn’t possibly retire without her retiring as well. And then I would want that fiat amount to be half or less of my current stack of Bitcoin. So in all, this is quite a tall order. |
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Guess what is coming in 2021?  |
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