Classic pump and dump.

I'm expecting at least some SatoshiDice shareholders to get some money in ActM in the next 24/48h, with their BTC150,000.

The first ones will probably get into Asicminer, inflating the price a good deal; the problem is that Asicminer has been more or less constant for the last weeks, so there's really nothing that substantial to justify a big momentum up. After the price goes up a bit, mostly will diversify into other stuff, so ActM is a really good candidate.

The volume of AMC-PT on btct.co has been going strong in the last days and coupled with increasing VMC's pre-orders, the last part of the NRE funds will be gathered in just some days.

They are ofc, but the current amount of shares being sold already has that into consideration, as if they were the only funding path. Depending on pre-orders, not all of them need to be sold to reach $1M total.

The pre-orders of miners are in $.

+1. There is a huge difference in price between NRE costs of 90nm (~$100k), 45nm (~$400k) and 28nm (~$1M). At the current market rate and machine sales the $1M is very very near allowing ActM to jump immediately to 28nm.

Because with $1M Ken can just say "Here it is! $1M raised in less than a month! Let's negotiate an even better deal and ActM's transition to VIP customer now!"

Exactly, it's the "balance" at the end of each respective month.

Growth expenses are already factored in. I did the following post on the speculation thread, using 50% of the profits for growth, you can see that works pretty well:

Well, if 2.24% of those BTC choose ActM, the wall is toast!

Just quote it in the op, it will make it easier to replace the quote block when I post new ones!

Edit: Totally outdated now, don't quote this anymore!

New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation.

(any errors found, just shout! )

Considerations:

• Mining
• Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
• Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
• November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
• 50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
• Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)
• Sales
• Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!

(http://i40.tinypic.com/wgrlu8.png)

Conclusions:

• Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January
• The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
• As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
• Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
• The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling

Yes, underestimated for July (since it doesn't matter much right now), but I'd say overestimated from August forward, starting at ~470TH

Because Asicminer is not issuing fixed MH/s bonds, they keep adding hardware to maintain a minimum stable network percentage. It's the network percentage represented by each share that guarantees its value, not hashrate. On this scenario, with Asicminer, you have a minimum guarantee that when you want to get out, your shares are worth at least the price you paid for them first.

LabRatMining bonds, on the current terms, are losing network percentage every time the network grows, since they represent a fixed hashrate, so their dividend income and their intrinsic value keeps going down, just like any other offer out there that offers a fixed MH/s per share.

There are cases where fixed MH/s shares can be profitable, depending on the network difficulty rise, as they are most profitable when difficulty is almost steady, so an investor can buy and get more in dividends than the share decreases in value, during a specific time-period.

Great news! ActM getting all the NRE money in like a week would put a severe dent to some of the competition.

Sure! To offset the share price devaluation, the hashrate of each share has to rise in the exact same % as the increase in % of the global bitcoin network hashrate. If the network increases 6x, each share should be 600MH/s. Less than that and it lost value.

Using the 166.67MH/s per share means that the share only devalues after the network hasrate has passed ~250TH*1.6667 = 416.67 TH/s. I'm expecting this in August, with most of 100TH getting online and the Avalon chips shipping en masse.

The most important thing to know is that network difficulty adapts so that the number of blocks mined is always as close as possible to 6 blocks every hour. This means that around BTC3600 are mined per day (25*6*24).

The current network hashrate is ~250TH/s, so 100MH/s will earn you BTC3600*0.1/250000 = BTC0.00144 per day. 100MH/s represents 0.00004% of the network.

When the network hashrate is ~1500TH/s, 100MH/s will earn you BTC3600*0.1/1500000 = BTC0.00024 per day. 100MH/s then represents 0.00000667% of the network, which is 6x less, this is why the share value goes down.

Paying BTC0.15 for something that represents BTC0.00144 per day might be good now, but not later.

It's not an annual return when the share value is going down faster than what you receive in dividends during that time-frame. Annual return supposes you can (1) sell it at the same price as you bought it one year later, while (2) earning dividends during a year. Unfortunately, condition #1 doesn't hold.


Wrong!

Of course not! Feel free to add any remarks also!

Just posted some fresh estimates on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=254930.msg2749219#msg2749219

The problem is right here. You can say that BTC0.15 per 100MH/s is a great price right now (network at ~250TH/s), but when the network reaches 1500TH/s, 100MH/s is worth then 0.15*250/1500 = BTC0.025, an 83% devaluation.