Now this is a good read...  I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.
This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.
This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.
This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)
This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.
SINGULARITY
When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.
Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.
In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.
- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users
If you consider a connection as being something binary (two persons involved) then the network value only grows as n^2, n*(n-1)/2 to be precise, not (n-1)!. This is Metcalfe's law: the value of a network grows quadratically with the number of users of the network. This also explains why there are many^2 presents christmas evening if many guests are attending - the number of presents grows quadratically with the number of people if all guests give all other guests one present each. And btw, n*(n-1)/2=sum(x,x=1,x=n-1) (the sum of all natural numbers from 1 to n-1, not the product as (n-1)! indicates) |
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LTC is perfect for when BTC gets forked or has an unfixable bug.
people who hate ltc are just btc fan boys and are not true crypto bugs.
luke is just a btc fan boy
Are you aware that luke-jr has contributed to the development of litecoin? http://pastebin.com/7UCqiwk6Did you know that is why I tipped him 1337 LTC? No. But I cannot see why you badmouth him so much if you appreciate his contribution to the development of litecoin. |
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LTC is perfect for when BTC gets forked or has an unfixable bug.
people who hate ltc are just btc fan boys and are not true crypto bugs.
luke is just a btc fan boy
Are you aware that luke-jr has contributed to the development of litecoin? http://pastebin.com/7UCqiwk6 |
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Seriously read the #bitcoin-dev before spreading your (likely irrelevant) opinions on luke-jr. He is the guy saving Bitcoin! Most of the other devs were just messing around. Just because he does some development with btc does not mean he is correct about ltc. that is just silly. I hate discussing with people who do not read my posts. It seems so counterproductive. Luke-jr may be wrong on Litecoins but you should all respect him and not badmouth him (Radacoin).
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Seriously read the #bitcoin-dev log from March 12 before spreading your (likely irrelevant) opinions on luke-jr. He is the guy saving Bitcoin! Most of the other devs were just messing around. |
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Why would Litecoin holders thank him? if anything he kept Litecoin from taking over, when Bitcoin hardforked. If the Bitcoin hardfork fiasco lasted a lot longer, Litecoin would have a chance to become the dominant currency.
Do you understand the word "if"? He is the reason that you are still wealthy if any of you were smart enough to buy BTC at low prices!
Why should anyone thank him for being a selfish douche? (I'm not saying he is one but it seems like that's what's being reported here) He is invested in BTC and faced with the possibility of his investment going down the drain he unintentionally helped everyone else invested in BTC by trying to save his own ass (it would be hard for him to increase the value of his bitcoins while everyone elses bitcoins somehow decreased in value). If he really is going around spreading lies about litecoin and such just to line his own pockets (at the expense of litecoin miners) he doesn't sound like much of a philanthropist deserving of thanks to me. Would you say the same about Satoshi? Do you even know who Satoshi is? Do you know who luke-jr is? |
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Luke-jr may be wrong on Litecoins but you should all respect him and not badmouth him (Radacoin). Have you read the #bitcoin-dev log from the March 11/March 12 hardfork event?? Luke-jr was the guy taking the lead on the solution. He is the reason that you are still wealthy if any of you were smart enough to buy BTC at low prices! A thank you would be in order. http://bitcoinstats.com/irc/bitcoin-dev/logs/2013/03/12Why would Litecoin holders thank him? if anything he kept Litecoin from taking over, when Bitcoin hardforked. If the Bitcoin hardfork fiasco lasted a lot longer, Litecoin would have a chance to become the dominant currency. Do you understand the word "if"? He is the reason that you are still wealthy if any of you were smart enough to buy BTC at low prices!
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Luke-jr may be wrong on Litecoins but you should all respect him and not badmouth him (Radacoin). Have you read the #bitcoin-dev log from the March 11/March 12 hardfork event?? Luke-jr was the guy taking the lead on the solution. He is the reason that you are still wealthy if any of you were smart enough to buy BTC at low prices! A thank you would be in order. http://bitcoinstats.com/irc/bitcoin-dev/logs/2013/03/12 |
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I am writing in here to inform the community that I plan to attend the rpietila's Supernode meeting in Porvoo outside Helsinki this May. I plan to use the meeting to establish more connections in the bitcoin community. I first heard about bitcoins in the summer of 2011 and I have owned bitcoins since March 2012. I have been doing business in bitcoins for only a couple of months. It was originally macro economics that attracted me to bitcoins, i.e. the belief that an ultra-loose monetary policy is one of the biggest problems facing the Western world and is the reason for the continued financial crisis - inflation is taxation without representation and it reduces savings to an unsustainable level. To me bitcoin is not (only) a get rich quick scheme but one of the biggest inventions in all of humanity's history and certainly the biggest invention so far in this century imo. I have several business plans which I would like to discuss with the community and I would also like to hear tips from the larger players in the community. When I view many of the sectors in the world economy, I often get the feeling that they somehow are at an equilibrium, that the current technology is being utilized fully. I get the exact opposite feeling when I look at the bitcoin economy and consider what kind of technological solutions that are possible here. What kind of government regulation and power of the banking sector that could be rendered irrelevant by this technology. I feel very lucky to be part of this technology. Whether it ends up being bitcoins or some other cryptographic currency that prevails is to me an open question and I therefore believe that "bitcoin" businesses should expose themselves to cryptocurrencies in general and not only the current market leader, bitcoins. This is my payment for the summit: https://blockchain.info/tx/73aefd99cb5e9734c4ecfc94426313822278fbe9ce7a8fa538a17d411d618c4e |
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 Slight upward trend. This is usually a bullish signal. My prediction is that the price will rise to 139 quite soon. This is little more than pure speculation, though. |
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yes. Looks bullish again. The last price is huigher than the local maximum after the dump. Direction: up! Don't trust TA too much though  |
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Hmm. Loks like down:  Hope I am wrong though. But I am not trading on TA. Just entertainment. |
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According to the mtgox walls, 23 Million USD takes us to a BTC valuation over $1000. Not a lot of money in the whole scheme of things.
You should know that means nothing. FACT: according to the order book, someone willing to cash out just 18 Million USD takes us to a BTC valuation in the low single digits. Not a lot of money in the whole scheme of things. Imagine satoshi decides to cash out the 1M BTC he has, because is time for him to retire. Yes, you know what would happen: BTC would suddenly go to 0. And that will happen, sooner or later, because nobody can wait to be rich forever. Just pray that the market depth will be 10,000 times bigger than now, so we just go to low double digits when he decides to sell, and not straight to 0. If he is smart enough to invent bitcoins, he is smart enough to sell responsibly. I believe. |
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It never ceases to amaze me. Why would people sell big amounts of coin in the low 150's when the price was 168 hours ago?
Something to do with 'this new trading thing'. Meaning, theres many new entrants who have just discovered trading, small and large size alike. Doing what you describe is exactly what they do. I feel sorry for all the people that sold at $50 and bought back at $165. They must be tearing their hair out right now wondering what to do. It seemed a large player tried to crash the price from $50 and down to $20-30. But an even larger player, maybe the one starting the crash from 266 gobbled up everything between 50 and 70. Whence the gigantic volume at the low on April 16th. That is my theory |
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The last two days looks extremely bullish, though.
 (sorry. Couldn't resist) What means "fap", Precious? |
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The trend the last two hours look a bit bearish. The last two days looks extremely bullish, though. This current fall fra 168-153 is probably just a small correction with some people taking a profit from their buys between 50-100 where the volume was enormous.
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So that's what drawing triangles on charts can tell you? That the price is going either up or down. Interesting.
Doubt as to where the further price moves are heading - the triangle shows that swing trades are narrowing the price range thus reducing the volume traded by day traders. I have heard that a break-out from a triangle is a strong indicator on the future direction. But some say it is a contrarian indicator lol. Let us hope it is a contrarian indicator since the price just broke out below the triangle's trading range. Big players are fighting it out now. Huge volumes. If the price goes above 158, it would seem that the break out was a contrarian or maybe a fake indicator. But to me, TA is mostly entertainment. I am holding for the longest time and not daytrading. |
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