is this it??  Nada so far! Eerily quiet. I assume the Crimea referendum will have some effect one way or another, or quite possible one way and then the other... Which of course has nothing to do with some autistic savant who can read charts. |
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Both entirely reasonable answers, thank you.
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Prophets who aren't willing to back up their bold predictions with btc should be ignored. How about 2 btc, is that less "peasant" for you? you still haven't said what you think a large dip is, or did we already do that since it's $10 down from yesterdays high?  Btw the comment about Biafore was to say we need a trusted 3rd party to hold the funds, as I wouldn't trust a handshake with a punk like you.  |
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What's the benefit to the whale?
Have you got any financial interests in Bitcoins? If so, what would be the benefit of a particular price action to you? Now take the exact same principles and combine it with a level of wealth beyond your imagination and you might have some fitting answers. Right now, there is a 1500 BTC defensive wall @ $630 on Bitstamp, the main exchange. I say defensive because if this purchaser really wanted that USD turned into Bitcoin, he would be chasing the spot price up the chart before 'competitors' got in. But that isn't the purpose of the wall, it is there to reassure the market and prevent a flood of selling off. And it's effectiove. I bought 10 BTC last night at $640. Had the massive Bid wall not been there, I would not have entered the market at this point. If this Bid wall is removed or is devoured, then I will fold my hand right away. Add a few hundred market participants with the same mindset as I have and acting in the same manner, and the whale gets his desired effect. Ok, but any big sell off by the whale would send the price south again. What I'm not quite getting my head around is why the ability to rig the market at this point wouldn't prove equally problematic when it came to cash in. The large amount of money works in your favour one way, not the other. Surely a safer strategy would simply be to sell now, let (and help) the price crash, then buy back in? (Stabilise the market at the lower price if you want to stop it dropping beyond your buy-back price.) |
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Seems that what the whales are doing is pressing huge bid walls behind the spot price in order to try and imbue confidence and calm in the markets........for now.
What's the benefit to the whale? |
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Given:
1) The current cycle pattern is amazingly similar to the previous two.
2) Everybody is aware of it and prepared to act accordingly. I.e.
a) Go all in now.
b) Sell in July, just before the peak.
c) Buy at 40% of it.
d) Sell again in a month, at the re-bounce.
e) Buy again in 87 days after the peak, at the bottom.
3) Whales are aware of these plans and will somehow use this knowledge to transfer our coins to their pockets.
Fair enough, that's the rules of the game and it's our decision to play it. But my question is:
1) What specifically would a whale do? How exactly could he trick us?
2) Is there a way not to fall a victim to it? (apart from just holding for the whole cycle)
I'm pretty sure not getting greedy is a good strategy. If you're sure the whales are going to kick something off, then the advice to "buy low, sell high" is fair enough, as it always is. Where people come unstuck is trying to squeeze every last cent out of the ups and downs. If you come out in the black you're doing better than most. It's when you try to second guess something that's inherently unpredictable, or buy/sell due to emotion, that things go wrong. It's annoying to know that you could have got 20%, 50% or whatever more out of your trade. But not as annoying as being that much down. |
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I'd bet .5 btc right now if I didn't think he'd pull a biafore and renege.
Wtf... So do it. Cards on the table, terms agreed, escrow, make it happen - if you're that confident. No? Thought not. i dont give a shit about his peasant .5BTC, i was referring to the bullshit biafore renege shit whatever the fuck that is And yet still no counter offer... |
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I'd bet .5 btc right now if I didn't think he'd pull a biafore and renege.
Wtf... So do it. Cards on the table, terms agreed, escrow, make it happen - if you're that confident. No? Thought not. |
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I'd bet .5 btc right now if I didn't think he'd pull a biafore and renege.
Get someone reputable to escrow. Funny how people disappear when that's on the table... |
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my thought process on this thread:
1. hmm whats this...
2. oh, its cosmofly. well then, might aswell leave a shitty reply
All my threads have been top quality, with huge reader base. Not sure what you're talking about. I base all my predictions on real maths and chart analysis and market observation Why are you always wrong then? Never been wrong, if this doesn't happen then I will be wrong but I won't. ouch, why do you say this? Now your only chance is call a smaller dip as your prediction. So maybe the price goes form 640 to 610 in a minute and you can say "Yes. Like I told you!". But that would sound bad... i said large dip not fucking $10 i'm a ready to put my reputation on this. That sounds like an escrowed bet waiting to happen (not interested myself but I'm sure someone will). Numbers? What do you call a large dip? Below $500 on Stamp at some point on March 16? $400? Come on, nail your colours to the mast if you're that sure. That way, you get to tell everyone "I told you so" if it happens. |
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A true representation-I believe-would be if all bitcoins on earth were dumped, what price would they go for total.
That would be zero, of course. If everyone that had them was willing to sell them at any price, then they would have to give them all away. I should say-if all bitcoins for sale were bought up. If you could buy all bitcoins at the current market price, the price would be the current market cap The current market cap is the total amount of money that has been "made" in bitcoin. If the market cap increases, regardless of why, the total amount of money made increases. If you buy and the price goes down, the amount of money made decreases. Minded coins add to the market cap. Bought coins do not add to the market cap, unless the buy results in a higher price. How much money was required to get it the current price? This has been determined by the laws of supply and demand. If someone Wanted to buy a Billion Dollars worth of Bitcoin NOW, as in TODAY, meaning in the next hour, Well, that much is not offered at the current prices. So the price would, and as the price rises the market cap increases, and more people will be willing to sell at the higher prices. How high would a billion dollar buy drive the price? That depends entirely on how long it took holders of bitcoin to offer up a billion dollars worth in total for sale. Once can make valuation arguments for the current price. A 1T miner costs xxx and will have to run for DD days and consume WW watts costing $$ so 1 bitcoin today should be worth .... whatever that adds up to. But that and a dime still won't buy a cup of coffee. For bitcoin to really succeed, the bitcoin community desperately needs an easy to understand demand driver for the non-technical market. & Speculation, which initially good early on, is unlikely to provide long-term sustainability. Hope that helps This is going round in circles, and I only have so many palms to face with. I think the question has been answered to my satisfaction, in two different ways. One was aminorex's formula (thank you) and one was the manual approximation of that from exchange closing price/volumes. We're not talking fundamentals, here, which are totally divorced from the price of buying/running a mining rig. The whole point was to figure out the relationship between investment and price. Market cap is a meaningless measure of bitcoin's value as far as I'm concerned, because the market cap is not what people have paid, or would receive, for their coins. But it's still the metric quoted everywhere... |
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Hey guys, I would like to know what sort of demand there is for a UK based exchange? I am very interested in opening one as i am pretty sure i have the facilities (banking wise) to do so. I have a rough idea of what sort of trading tools and instruments investors and traders desire, however if you could also list what you'd like to see in an exchange that may be lacking or could be improved in the current exchanges that are out there. Many thanks Isnt bitstamp available in the UK? I guess it could be a good benchmark for you Yes, but you'll pay a c. 7% premium for 1btc thanks to the banks' fees for sepa transfer and awful exchange rate. |
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There's demand, but it's not viable as a traditional exchange. Take a look at bit121, and every other exchange that has ever tried to operate here. The banks have closed ranks and withdrawn their services, putting them out of business. I'd be impressed if you could get around it cheaply. There's room for an alternative to bitbargain and bittylicious. Just not this, at the moment. In my opinion someone could do very well out of a half-way solution that doesn't use the banks but offers something better than the manual sites currently in the space. I'd love to get something like that up and running and it wouldn't be too hard - I think.
Have you got a developer on board?
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I got back my 100btc and $10k. I got my btc and funds back so it means that Mt Gox will return btc and funds to all owners so don't worry. It can take some time but I'm sure you will get them back!
I have been screwed many times in my life and I started to realize that Mt Gox problems was just the next scam. I couldn't believe in story that a guy who wears a suit for 20k, watch for 10k and shoes for 2k was so stupid and greedy that couldn't spend 50k to hire some guy to fix the holes in Mt Gox system. I felt really bad because I thought that 70k of my wealth was permanently lost. But today I received it back! and I'm the happiest person on the earth! One week ago I mentioned about my financial problems to my sister's boyfriend his name is Victor who is a lawyer in Moscow however looking at his friends I would never suspect that he can be a lawyer. I expleined him what BTC is, what Mt Gox was, I told him about Mark Karpeles living in Japan. He said that there is a big chance to get my btc and money back but we have to act fast. It will cost 10% of returned sum (usualy in cases like mine he takes up to 80%) plus I will have to cover all the expenses like flight tickets to Japan and hotels.
He left Moscow on the last Thursday and today morning I received my BTC and money back! I have no idea how Mark did this that I received wire transfer so fast! But the best one is that the total cost of getting it back was something like 10k and Victor didn't want even a single penny from me. He said that he became a close friend with Mark and Mark was so sorry for all the problems and was so generous that paid all that costs and did something extra! He asked Victor and his friends to stay in Tokyo till the end of March, he bought them 3 rooms in luxury hotel for $2000 a day each!!
As you can see Mark Karpeles is the honest guy on the planet!!! I won't let you insult Mark Karpeles!! I'm sure you will get your btc back just like I got, just be patient. If Mark was a cheater you think he would give me back my btc and money?
Idiot. |
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Seems like the little surge earlier today was from the noveau riche TA 101A society.
It occurred as 4Hr MACD and PSAR were switching to long signal. Bitcoin rose on low volume, with huge dumps up near the top consisting of much of the big green 15 minute bar that appears to drive the price up. Since then nothing. Any volume has been downwards volume.
I had lower 600's, higher 500's as consolidation/accumulation zone but seeing the complete lack of interest at the mid $600's has me thinking my money would be better placed in lower 500's.
trend does not look good  How do people draw these types of charts? What calculations do you use for the placement of each line, and to get the slope? 1) Close eyes. 2) Remove finger from backside. Stab at chart. 3) Repeat with other hand. Join lines. 4) Repeat process for new lines. Doesn't matter how many as they won't mean anything anyway. 5) Select colour. Shade in between lines to denote Something Bad. 6) Repeat with second colour, which will also denote Something Bad. 7) Post to as many threads as you can with vague apocalyptic warnings. |
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i agree with OP, it seems since gox scandal that no new money is coming in.
maybe that's why the number of unique addresses used daily has only increased 22% since gox stopped trading. Curious that isn't reflected in the price. My guess: a bunch of people created addresses as they realise exchanges aren't good places to keep money. Plus, possibly, speculatory money leaving the system from the exchanges faster than new money going into new addresses? Will be very interesting to see if it continues, anyway. |
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Looks can be deceiving. OP get ready to buy back in before we rocket up again.
Based on? Not saying you're wrong and would certainly agree in the medium term, but it looks like we're headed a little further south first. |
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The market cap is hard to associate with the combined value of all coins. Hardly the same factors.
No - this is exactly my point. The idea of market cap is quite misleading in this sense but it's often quoted as a metric for a company's value (or here, bitcoin). Ultimately it doesn't matter, since what I'm interested in finding out is what would happen to the price of bitcoin if, for example: a) a big investor dropped in $1 million b) 1,000,000 people decided it would be good to keep $10 in bitcoins to buy things with The simplest and most tedious way of approximating that I guess would be to multiply the closing price by the volume for each day of trading (ignoring the earliest days) and using that to project future values based on additional investment. I think this would be a useful thing to do because most people's idea of what might happen to the value of their bitcoin investment is based on wishful thinking or extremely shaky reasoning. |
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Hi Tay,
I'd like to do a feature on this for BitScan magazine. Can you PM me if you're interested?
Thanks!
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Is the net total amount invested even 1 Billion?
Probably not even close.
I doubt it's anything like that much. |
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