That Baidu search volume has data from 2008, which is impossible for Bitcoin. So the "exploding" part is meaningless. Isn't there a better search term in Chinese which actually means "Bitcoin"? |
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The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users), will turn this discussion completely ridiculous before the end of this month: January: 10, February: 20, March: 40, April: 80, May: 160, ... December 20480.Even the above contains more valuable advice than most said in this thread, although it is public knowledge that this kind of behaviour cannot just increase exponentially. It will go parabolic, crash, and repeat. Not only I believe it will go to $1M this year, I have not heard very many good arguments from anyone, what can hinder it  I am a perma-bull like you, but you are really overstating the trend! It is indicating $200 by the end of 2013, $500 by May next year and $1000 at the end of next year. Still fantastic growth   |
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I updated the initial post to reflect the current situation. I must say did not expect litigation when I started this thread back in March. Now for the relevant question in the speculation sub forum. What impact will this litigation have on the BTC/USD exchange rate?
Nothing. Such pathetic squabbles are irrelevant to most powerful idea for the internet since the WWW. |
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... Edit: A timely post in ZH which reminds us why Satoshi created Bitcoin: Unfortunately, free enterprise is being strangled to death in the United States today. Entrepreneurs and small business are being pounded into oblivion by rules, regulations, red tape and oppressive levels of taxation. ... Meanwhile, wealth and power continue to become even more heavily concentrated in the hands of big government and big corporations. ... We need to change the rules of the game so that entrepreneurs, small businesses and average workers can thrive in this country once again. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/22-facts-prove-bottom-90-america-systematically-getting-poorerButtcoin does not change the rules of the game. I glanced through the ZH thing and didn't see any evidence that 'Satoshi' did any particular thing for any particular reason. You would not, by chance, be projecting your beliefs onto the actions of someone you don't know would you? If so, it's probably not as helpful to your cause as you might think it is. Lotsa people would probably think it makes you look like a jackass. Satoshi wanted sound money. Evidenced in the genesis block. The ZH article describes a lot of problems which are created and perpetuated by unsound (fiat) money. Some of ideas in the OP make cryptocurrency unsound, like freezing and blacklisting addresses. |
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A lot of coins are still in dumb weak hands.
10k just sold driving the price to $91 again.
Anyone with 10k looking to exit, then there was plenty of opportunity at $120, $140 or even $160 recently.
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Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom.
This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago? Are you predicting a bottom below that? Understand that my time context is the entire bubble collapse, which I expect to be roughly three months after the peak on April 10. Yes, $50 is not the bottom - that is the nature of a speculative financial bubble collapse. Evidence shows that the bottom is deeper than most expect and takes about as long to occur as the bubble took to form in the first place. I believe the bubble started January 7, 2013 at $13.50. The underlying trend I think allows for a bottom well under $50. I understand the argument, but $13.5 was well below the 3-year logarithmic trendline. $47 was on trend which was where the price spent some time, especially before and after the temporary chain-fork. The $266 peak was "only" 5.5x this level, whereas the 2011 peak was 30x the prevailing trend-line level of $1 then. I agree with this sentiment, and around $80 as the potential bottom, if $91 can't hold. 6k BTC will take us to $95.00. I have a feeling that apart from today (Friday May 3, UTC) we will never more have the chance to visit it. Official Reason: the capitulation of 2nd Fibonacci order from the strong bull move, of $50->$167, leads us to $95, but no lower. (The third is $78, which means that should we cross $91 today, it'll be irresistible, and the the fourth and so on, but the chance is small, imo.) Also sub-$100 prices just "seem too cheap".  I am willing and able to just accumulate below $100 myself. We are in a secular bull market as long as Bitcoin adoption is growing, and I see no proof to the contrary. |
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Accordingly, this capitulation may be the greatest of this bubble collapse, but it will not be the last one and will not be the bottom.
This capitulation at $91. Have you forgotten the bottom at $50 two weeks ago? Are you predicting a bottom below that? |
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Money laundering/criminal activity? Please, you get that with every currency. You cannot stop black markets from existing.
It is not the regulators' jobs to protect us from any of this. It is our job.
Also remember: If you give them an inch, they will take a mile.
Yes, and there are (anti-money laundering and other) regulations with other currencies, just as there are now with bitcoin. The regulators have a different view of their job than you do for them. ;-) Do people remember the situation 25 years ago? AML was unheard of except within law enforcement dealing with the mafia. Today, every citizen and small company is plagued with providing AML documentation when doing business. Is there any less money-laundering done today than 25 years ago? Where are all the news articles about money-launderers arrested because their documentation was flawed? ML is a modern-day bogeyman like the witches and giants of Grimm's fairy tales. Similarly, all the KYC regulation is a non-productive red-tape burden (useful for denying banking services to Bitcoin exchanges though). As governments continually expand in size they are suffocating ordinary people with excessive regulation and surveillance. IMHO, this is because fiat systems are failing, so ever more controls are needed to maintain the status-quo. The only regulation of Bitcoin that would satisfy fiat-issuing governments would be r egulating Bitcoin into an emasculated Buttcoin, which is what the OP is describing. Edit: A timely post in ZH which reminds us why Satoshi created Bitcoin: Unfortunately, free enterprise is being strangled to death in the United States today. Entrepreneurs and small business are being pounded into oblivion by rules, regulations, red tape and oppressive levels of taxation. ... Meanwhile, wealth and power continue to become even more heavily concentrated in the hands of big government and big corporations. ... We need to change the rules of the game so that entrepreneurs, small businesses and average workers can thrive in this country once again. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-02/22-facts-prove-bottom-90-america-systematically-getting-poorerButtcoin does not change the rules of the game. |
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Butterfly labs officially announced shipping... prepare for the bullrun!!
or not...
Coming of ASICs means just one ... selling pressure. People invested a lot into ASIC hardware and they need to cover the costs. The question is if there's still enough buyers to keep the price at these levels after all the news bitcoin-mania ended. We are in the bear market now. The price may slowly go downwards throughout the whole 2013 like it did after 2011 crash. I see this differently. There must be thousands of pre-paid orders to be filled, so no effect on btc price until new orders are pouring in Further, price is tracking difficulty. As the difficulty zooms up towards and past 10 million the integrity of the Bitcoin network becomes phenomenally strong, dragging in more investors who might have been sitting on the sidelines worried about network security from hacking. |
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stop talking about 87 or 95, support is here now, don't miss your chance  It needs to test $100, and by testing I mean, cross it. Short term I would put a limit buy order in $96-$99 range, that is the safest. I am thinking that the $104.66 low was close enough to $96-99 for the market to be satisfied that it has retraced the bullish move. So sub-100 not on the cards anymore... |
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Markets are strange beasts, they like to thoroughly sample every price up and down, lots and lots of times.
The market explored the area $90-$95 very well, (just like before the April 11th peak). It then shot from $97 to $135 very quickly. Although it has explored back to $125 quite well, it has not done the region $97 to $125 since. It seems like it wants to spend time in that range, at least around $115, before the next main trend kicks off.
that seems to be where we're heading:  Agreed. Those weekly candles clearly show the market stabilizing after a buying ramp which got out of control. Personally,I expect a slow climb from $100, perhaps regaining the $266 high, and keeping it, by the end of this year. - I could not care less if it crashed to $10;
I do. Because if it ever got to that price again then it would be due to a major disaster with the Bitcoin protocol. |
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Markets are strange beasts, they like to thoroughly sample every price up and down, lots and lots of times.
The market explored the area $90-$95 very well, (just like before the April 11th peak). It then shot from $97 to $135 very quickly. Although it has explored back to $125 quite well, it has not done the region $97 to $125 since. It seems like it wants to spend time in that range, at least around $115, before the next main trend kicks off.
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The selling pressure just keeps coming. Funny ask wall gone now.  Yes. The daily chart shows the price treading air, with a retrace likely to between $80 and $100 before any sustained long-term rally higher than that... |
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It is definitely the case that the weak-spot for Bitcoin currently is the need for interaction with the banks, the very entities which stand to lose a lot if Bitcoin succeeds.
Yes. Which is why the solution lies in 1-way transfers, i.e. people only need to get out of fiat once and stay invested in Bitcoin. This becomes more viable when more business accept Bitcoin. Fortunately, the trend is sharply up, every day more websites and brick-and-mortar shops are accepting it. After a few years the rolling snowball will be an avalanche! |
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Nice and honest piece, Proudhon.
I agree that constant focus on the speculation forum can lead to burnout. Perhaps the best thing to do is remember that this is a long-term project, so the short-term fluctuations in the fxrate are not important, just twists and turns in the road to Bitcoin's destination.
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The OP had a small business, and was ripped off by his government, the ECB and its bankster cronies.
Not by the ECB, just by his government and its "bankster cronies". The ECB is right at the centre of the Cyprus disaster, because its exposure is over $10bn, which is the paid-up capital of the Eurosystem. If Cyprus does not continue to maintain the fiction that it can repay all its bondholders then the ECB is technically bankrupt! |
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So  Some rich guy's corporation got dunked by the country it was located in Well a part of me feels VERY VERY VERY happy but another part of me feels very very scared & Saddened .... .... But this also scares me (& saddens me because of the obvious money/job loss) if such power houses can get looted by these governments, how easy would it be for these governments to fuck us - the little people - up. Wow, what a thoughtless post. The OP had a small business, and was ripped off by his government, the ECB and its bankster cronies. Whatever problems exist in India is completely and totally irrelevant. |
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No one is seriously invested in it.
Wrong. Litecoin's market cap = $68,152,758 usd I know of people that hold 100,000+ coins I can't find any decent stats on LTC. Is there a site like blockchain.info, but for LTC? Here's a few good ones. We have to look at the entire picture. I predict Litecoin doing what Bitcoin did but faster as Bitcoin has already blazed ahead of it, which should foster quicker adoption. But moreso, Bitcoin will soon go beyond the reach of mere mortals and weekend traders. Mining is about to go insane with ASIC for BTC, also involving a large upfront investment to get a piece of. 2nd generation coiners have kinda missed the boat at this point unless you can jump right in with either high per Bitcoin cost or high investment in mining gear. But, there is Litecoin, a far cheaper alternative investment, and with ASIC driving GPUs and FPGAs out of Bitcoin, they will find a new home mining alternate currencies. As Bitcoin moves out of reach for average investors, attention will turn to Litecoin. Essentially Litecoin is about where Bitcoin was 2 years ago. Bitcoin made a name for cryptocurrencies ahead of it, I think the progression of the markets will go through phases as accessibility shifts. We may see the other altcoins start gaining traction as well someday. Who knows, but it will be damn interesting to see what happens now. Thanks for all the info, very interesting! |
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I am a bit confused by the latest sell off. Everyone can't make money on these swings, and I would bet that most lose it. So why do they keep trying? It's not like there has been any kind of bad news to induce selling, and we all know how much people will be willing to sell for on Monday or Tuesday. I can't figure out why so many want to sell at the current low.
OK. A lot of people with holdings of coins are still kicking themselves for not selling at $266, so were waiting for the retrace to dump them. However, the retrace *seems* to have petered out at $166 instead, so they are dumping before it goes back to $50 and stays there. An alternative, perhaps the level-headed view, is that it will find a new level closer to $130 than $50. So selling now is too late (again)... |
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No one is seriously invested in it.
Wrong. Litecoin's market cap = $68,152,758 usd I know of people that hold 100,000+ coins I can't find any decent stats on LTC. Is there a site like blockchain.info, but for LTC? |
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