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2401  Other / Meta / Re: Anyone else finds it ironic that THE forum on BTC doesn't integrate tipping? on: January 11, 2015, 10:08:10 PM
As discussed on the 'New forum software' board:


I've thought about that before, but I think that there might be legal problems with that. It might make the forum a "money transmitter".

AFAIK Theymos didn't specifically comment about using ChangeTip itself though (to avoid the money transmitter issue)

It'd be nice to get a solid answer if there's any truth to the money transmitter theory. But yeah clearly a third party solution would not be effected
2402  Other / New forum software / Re: Internal ChangeTip Mechanism on: January 11, 2015, 09:56:18 PM
Even if someone were to make such a program it is unlikely that it would get integrated into the forum as (per what theymos said above) it could potentially turn the forum into a money transmitter.

I would also assume that the bounty would likely be lowered if the "hold" were to be released as 300 BTC was worth a lot less when the post/thread was made then it is now.

I also disagree that this would be a good idea as it would likely create huge amounts of spam and would potentially create new scams when people tip eachother in order to look generous so others will end up tipping them even more money. It would also make the forum an even bigger target for potential hackers

Well you can do it in a non-spammy way, build an extension that adds a tip button and then the extension can display it as well. This would also remove the forum completely from being responsible.

Also if you are building an extension you can do it completely in javascript, so if you want to make it a plugin it would be pretty easy as well as you can block it if you want no part. Also this could block you from being tip.

I am talking about the spam that it would encourage people to post if a tip function were to be enabled. Anytime someone would tip someone for a good comment, many others would post in the thread with likely useless garbage with the hopes that the person who tipped will tip someone again

Are you against micro tipping in general? If so i couldn't disagree more with you. Micro tipping is currently one of BTCs valid use cases. Yes tipping will lead to evils that come with it, begging, scams etc.., but that's not good enough of a deterrent. Regardless of the forum
2403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 09:11:52 PM
...
Pretty sure mostly everyone would agree that with an asset losing around 75% of it's ATH market cap you can safely say that traders lost money...

Not those who shorted BTC over the past year.  Bears love tanking prices.
logs or it didn't happen.  Grin

Lol was my quote just truncated and made into troll food? It's still on the same page. I'm offended by such low quality trolling  Angry

Full quote with emphasis.

Pretty sure mostly everyone would agree that with an asset losing around 75% of it's ATH market cap you can safely say that traders lost money. Of course i'm sure you can find exceptions with shorters and super elite/lucky traders successfully riding waves but pointing out exceptions doesn't help anyones case.
2404  Other / Meta / Anyone else finds it ironic that THE forum on BTC doesn't integrate tipping? on: January 11, 2015, 09:05:01 PM
Am i missing something here? I'd think bitcointalk would be on the forefront of tipping integration on forums
2405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 08:57:38 PM
Am I the only one to find it humorous that permabulls only think price matters on the way up?

Trader mentality.

Microsoft doesn't care about BTC price, neither does immigrant sending money back to his/her country, or the people dealing on silkroad 99.0, nor the tippers (well to small degree). Non of them carry the currency risk. At what point the demand for these use cases will meet supply who knows, but it's hard to argue that there won't be any new use cases.

Traders and miners are getting slaughtered though.

I don't think seasoned traders are getting slaughtered to be honest. When there's blood on the streets, there's money to be made. The biggest risk is, in the event of a panic, getting your gains out and trusting the exchanges not to shut down with your dividends.

Pretty sure mostly everyone would agree that with an asset losing around 75% of it's ATH market cap you can safely say that traders lost money. Of course i'm sure you can find exceptions with shorters and super elite/lucky traders successfully riding waves but pointing out exceptions doesn't help anyones case.
2406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 08:47:42 PM
Am I the only one to find it humorous that permabulls only think price matters on the way up?

Trader mentality.

Microsoft doesn't care about BTC price, neither does immigrant sending money back to his/her country, or the people dealing on silkroad 99.0, nor the tippers (well to small degree). Non of them carry the currency risk. At what point the demand for these use cases will meet supply who knows, but it's hard to argue that there won't be any new use cases.

Traders and miners are getting slaughtered though.
2407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 08:23:27 PM
time to test the theory that the price doesn't matter (It doesn't) but still. Hurts.

I'm more interested in the theory about how mining is dead... Doesn't look like.

Hash rate is tied to $ It's hard to get good estimates but i believe that the consensus is that it becomes unprofitable right about this price point.
2408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 08:21:16 PM
...
Cryto-currencies are not like fiat...if everyone just accepted that I think there would be a lot less pain.

If by "survival" you mean one neckbeard with two netbooks continuing to mine Bitcoin, I agree.  If. OTOH, you mean "not making everyone holding for more than a day poor," that's sorta iffy...

Let me spell this out:

Survival = i can send any amount i want anywhere in the world and get 3 confirmation at around 30min for few cents
Survival != $ X
2409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 06:31:01 PM
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.


Assuming demand doesn't drop.

Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise.

Well yeah think it's basic supply/demand problem. Supply is pretty much guaranteed to drop. So
demand goes up=price up
demand constant,=price up
demand drops less than supply=price up
demand drops more than supply=price down.
Place your bets accordingly. I for one would love to see centralized miners go out of business and start closing farms.
2410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 06:23:42 PM
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.
2411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2015, 06:13:18 PM
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best
2412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2015, 02:01:08 AM


That actually made me lol. On a separate note, is bitstamp going full retard like china with their volume on 0 fees
2413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2015, 03:43:47 PM
If anyone believes that rampant and unchecked criminality in a marketplace

inspires confidence in what is being traded there

have fun buying as long as you last.



If anyone actually believes that it's possible to have a free market without people trying to exploit it
have fun living in this unfair world.

Guys guys i thought we all agreed to sit in circles and sing Kumbaya. So who took my sandwich out of the fridge?
2414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2014, 04:00:38 PM
do you guys think it is a good idea  to sell all my 200btc for ripple Undecided

will ripple replace bitcoin soon?


No i think that's not enough, you should use that 200BTC to leverage short BTC 1:3 and market dump 600BTC then buy other poop coins and then umm profit  Roll Eyes
2415  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 28, 2014, 02:02:03 AM
Shitfinex leading, China still hasnt moved

This is either the best time to buy or the worst time to buy....


China is sleeping and the west is trying to move the market with some pathetic buys that are actually shorts that are closing. We are seeing this every day. 

You monitor is upside down or you trollin'?
2416  Economy / Speculation / Re: I TOLD YOU SO! on: December 19, 2014, 11:34:54 PM
Meh if you're seriously taking investment advice from some trolls on the internet forum i really have no sympathy for you  Cry
2417  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Original] Let me tell you why bitcoin drops and why it will turn around on: December 19, 2014, 01:23:35 PM
***some silly graph***
I'm assuming this one is still trying to pump doge?  Embarrassed oh how cute
2418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2014, 11:11:34 AM
Capital is fleeing Russia right now and all of the non-oligarchs have only one way to evade capital controls. Care to guess what that one way is? Every day the ruble sinks against the dollar, and Bitcoin stays more or less stable in dollar terms, bitcoin goes up in value relative to the Russian currency.


Again, doesnt that depend on someone being prepared to accept rubbles for bitcoins? if ruble is becoming worthless why would they swap their perfectly good bitcoins for it.





There's always a buyer at the right price. Plus they might arbitrage. Look at btc-e and how it's above Finex now
2419  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Original] Let me tell you why bitcoin drops and why it will turn around on: December 19, 2014, 10:54:15 AM
The price drop from 380 to 310 could be explained by a series of factors.

1. Recently, global commodity and equity market enter into a "risk off" mode that all risky assets, including bitcoin, are being sold off. You may challenge this by arguing the raise of Ripple. But 50% of ripple is controlled by Ripplelab. Therefore, it is not a free floating asset class and will not correlate with the other risky assets.

2. Year end tax selling. 2014 is a bear year for bitcoin holders. Some investors may want to realize the loss before the year end to gain some tax benefits.

3. Miners quit. Declining price incentivizes small and weak miners to quit and quiting miners tend to sell all of their storage.

4. Chinese future market. Chinese future players are overwhelmingly accumulating short position by futures.

But this declining trend will be exhausted after all and will be definitely turned around by the following factors.

1. Global equity market will stabilize with the announcements from central banks that easing and low interest rates will continue in foreseeable future.

2. Tax selling stops by December 31, 2014. Investors will relocate their investment portfolio in January 2015. Till then, I believe some value investors will start betting on two biggest losers in 2014, oil and bitcoin.

3. Once all small and weak miners quit, the bitcoin mining industry will be controlled by few monopolies. By then, the market landscape will approximate Ripple. The conglomerate of strong miners has the power to manipulate the price to protect their interests. They can do it easily by rationing the daily sale of bitcions, or by heavy public promotion, etc.

4. Too many retailing Chinese bears are shorting the bitcoin. The whales in Chinese future market will start pumping soon and squeeze those retailing bears to death. If they lift bitcoin from 300 to 400, image how much they can make from those 50 times leveraged future contract!!!

Don't agree with solitude approach (expected more from a hero), but this definitely smells like another (although one of the smarter) ripple shills. Bashes ripple a bit to seem legit, then passively mentions how bitcoin will become ripple  Roll Eyes that added to being the very first comment  is most certainly a shill. Anyone looking into the onslaught of noobie ripple shills popping all over the place all of the sudden?
2420  Economy / Speculation / Re: I TOLD YOU SO! on: December 19, 2014, 10:42:47 AM
Yada yada yada bitcoin is dead come buy into this ripple turd that we just pumped to the sky
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