Another day of zero inflow to Blackrock and GBTC dumping heavily, this time together with several other ETFs..  I wonder how many of those who invested in BTC through ETFs did so because they were convinced that an instant bull run would follow after the halving? Judging by everything, it seems that the halving was a cold shower for them. Maybe funds should make a survey among investors and ask them what actually happens with the halving - what percentage would answer that the total supply of BTC was reduced by half  I keep hearing that a lot of selling is due to US tax deadline, perhaps that has something to do with it do. Most likely the ETF buyers are just dumb shits though. If they were smart they'd self custody. Well, total daily supply was kinda reduced by half Believe they made a mistake and Valkyri BRRR should be +$20,2MM for the 25th, but that still doesn't change much. Think that correlation with overall market as a risk on asset is more likely to be the culprit for yesterday. Interesting that IBIT is at 0 for two days  |
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Epoch 4 3.125 BTC block reward? Where is that coming from? Epoch 1 was 50 BTC per block, epoch 2 was 25, epoch 3 was 12.5, etc. How did epoch 4 skip down to 3.125? What happened to 6.25? Silly humans Epoch 0 was 50BTC |
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Another day another BTC2k being shat out by GBTC, that's 4x the current supply. I must admit i was wrong with my expectations that announcement of mini spin off will slow down the outflows. What this tells us is that they're actually selling GBTC and not just reshuffling into lower fee ETF. On the bright side, GBTC now holds just under BTC300k, so at this rate just 150more days, max... (120 if they seed mini with BTC60k) |
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As Russian Troops Broke Through Ukrainian Lines, Panicky Ukrainian Commanders Had No Choice But To Deploy One Of Their Least-Prepared Brigades
The situation in and around Ocheretyne is desperate for Ukraine
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Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.
It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora's box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.
To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.
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The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.
But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, “certain units just fucked off.”
The 115th Mechanized Brigade’s failure to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade into Ocheretyne—and triggered a panicky response in Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.
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That the Ukrainians had to rush into a combat a comparatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka, however. The Russians, for their part, are keeping an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka.
If the 90th Tank Division rolls into Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could widen into a full-fledged breakthrough—one that could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat west to their next line of defenses.
Is it time to mobilize women and teenagers yet? Because UA is winning so hard? |
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The important things:
- Ukraine knows what works and what does not.
- Ukraine can hit oil facilities. I expect that now to happen after the US elections. Latest drones are above the 1000 km of range (some say 3000 km, but I am not giving yet credit unless I see evidence).
- Ukraine has learnt from the Surovikin line and now has its own.
- Ukraine can stop Ruzzia in the front, is willing to do so and is willing to bleed Ruzzian economy hard.
I see that there is a clear direction. Optimal result: Crimea cut from railway lines this year.
I get that you're trying to concentrate on the positives, but at this point a child can see that cherry picking some facts that are adventitious to you usually means that someone is trying to mislead you. "Branko mentioned the Excalibur, used by HIMARS" lol what!?! At this point i'm just going to assume that you're drunk or just trolling me. Good that you could admit that Branko was right, still not sure why you continue discussing other price before the war even began and the current global shortage of 155mm shells. Until the shortage is gone might as well discuss the hypothetical price of 155mm shells if they were growing on trees, would be just as relevant. "when you deny that Ruzzia is sending soldiers in Golfcarts to the front" cite where i deny that Russia is using golfcart like vehicles? Or shamefully just ignore this point and change the subject yet again."Or would you want to admit that 60 billion is the US aid is on top of the EU aid and is more that the rate given on previous years and that you are lying when trying to make it appear otherwise?"Ohh boy, you actually believed that one too, huh? You know, it would help to develop some critical thinking skills instead of just blindly believing everything that you wish to be true. Let me explain so you don't set yourself up for another disappointment. Just because USA approves aid to Ukraine for $X (what congress passes) doesn't mean that $X will make it to Ukraine. In fact most will stay in US and only a small portion of that $Y will make it to Ukraine (what Kiel Institute accounts for). Just look into the previous $113B congress passed $113 billion: Where the US investment in Ukraine aid has gone
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The largest chunk has gone directly to help Ukraine’s military
The US has actually spent a bit more than $43 billion on security aid for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Does the money go where it’s supposed to?
There have been indications of corruption. Zelensky, for instance, replaced the leadership at his defense ministry just before traveling to the US to address the United Nations and appear at the White House with Biden.
And let me spell this out so you don't get confused on this one too, I'm only talking about USA, sure Brits just committed $0,6B and other countries commit too "by your comments that Ukraine is just playing golf with the Scalps" are you sure you're not confusing me with someone else here? Or are you a bot that just generates positive messages to keep up Ukraine's morale? Finally, it's getting ugly out there for Ukrainians, guess they decided to completely shred the constitution and citizens rights, hope everyone who has Ukrainian passport here managed to renew it or it's a one way ticket to execute American KPIs Anger among Ukrainians in Poland as Kyiv halts passport renewals- Ruzzia is sending people in unarmoured vehicles to the frontline. did you lie or misread? - 60 Billion is nearly as much as the aid sent by US in two previous years - regardless if sent in weapons or cash - Now I know you have not misread, so this one is lying for you. The rest... textwalling, your favourite when your are caught. - Fronts collapsing... Lying or lying? (I cannot give you the honourable option). Excalibur shells are used for long range expensive targets. Are you trying to imply that is not the case?i (I did say HIMARS because I was thinking of the rocket, but they are fired by conventional artillery, so I am happy to correct THAT, which is irrelevant to the case) Branko is trying to imply that shells fired by Ukraine cost 100.000 US which is not the common case. See, he does not lie, just uses partial information. I am sure you are very familiar with using partial information uh? But let's just quote the same source: So now that you bring the topic, and for the benefit of those soldiers and people that you are trying to get to their deaths by trying to deny what this means: Excalibur is one shot one kill. Would you like to be on the receiving end thinking... "oh well, at least it costed them a lot". People living Ukraine... yes it happens. See below a link.... about people leaving Ruzzia... Boiling frogggggg https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/border-fear-then-relief-men-fleeing-russia-2022-10-05/For the men leaving Russia after vast journeys across the world's biggest country, there is now often a final ordeal: visceral fear at the border followed by a rush of relief for those who reach the other side.
Hundreds of thousands of men have left Russia since President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Some feared they would be called up to fight, others simply sought new lives after war changed Russia more dramatically than at any time since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. What did i missread or lie about? Shall we try a third attempt at forming a full question? You must be really slow to understand so let me try this one last time. I'm don't pretend to be a military expert so i don't speculate on daily events. As far as your so called "golfcarts" i have no idea if they're good or bad, but few questions come to mind from the top: Would the occupants survive an anti-personnel mine? Is it heavy enough to set off an anti-tank mine? Do UAs rules of engagement allow Javelin use against a "golfcart" with one or two occupants? What's easier to target with a drone, such "golfcart" driving at speed vs infantry on foot? With so many drones covering the front lines, i'd imagine one would want to minimize time spent in the open moving between the tree lines? Is there a better alternative for a fast evac of wounded? Etc etc etc ... You've been throwing these radical claims since you claimed that switchblades would be a game changer, and making fun of RU tank cages which Ukraine has since also implemented. Lol you still refuse to accept that congress has previously approved $113B in "Ukraine" aid before? Q1: Since the start of the war, how much funding has Congress appropriated for Ukraine?
A1: To date, Congress has passed four spending packages in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine— $113 billion in total. The $113 billion spans agencies and bureaus and provides for much-needed support in areas including military equipment, migration and refugee assistance, energy, and countering disinformation.
Q2: Did all $113 billion go to Ukraine?
A2: No, it is important to note that not all of this funding has gone to Ukraine. A good proportion of this funding is being spent in the United States, or on U.S. personnel.
Just as will these $60B. You really believed that all of $60B would go to Ukraine lol? You made a claim implying unrealistic prewar costs of 155mm shells, Branko corrected you citing a full sentence with the current, actually relevant cost of 155mm shell. You started attacking irrelevant part about Excalibur shells and you're still the only one that keeps talking about Excalibur for some reason? So your reply to Ukraine globally stopping providing consular assistance to almost half of its population outside of UA (all males from 18-65) is an article from 2022 about men leaving Russia during partial mobilization in Russia? Hmm ok sure |
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The important things:
- Ukraine knows what works and what does not.
- Ukraine can hit oil facilities. I expect that now to happen after the US elections. Latest drones are above the 1000 km of range (some say 3000 km, but I am not giving yet credit unless I see evidence).
- Ukraine has learnt from the Surovikin line and now has its own.
- Ukraine can stop Ruzzia in the front, is willing to do so and is willing to bleed Ruzzian economy hard.
I see that there is a clear direction. Optimal result: Crimea cut from railway lines this year.
I get that you're trying to concentrate on the positives, but at this point a child can see that cherry picking some facts that are adventitious to you usually means that someone is trying to mislead you. "Branko mentioned the Excalibur, used by HIMARS" lol what!?! At this point i'm just going to assume that you're drunk or just trolling me. Good that you could admit that Branko was right, still not sure why you continue discussing other price before the war even began and the current global shortage of 155mm shells. Until the shortage is gone might as well discuss the hypothetical price of 155mm shells if they were growing on trees, would be just as relevant. "when you deny that Ruzzia is sending soldiers in Golfcarts to the front" cite where i deny that Russia is using golfcart like vehicles? Or shamefully just ignore this point and change the subject yet again. "Or would you want to admit that 60 billion is the US aid is on top of the EU aid and is more that the rate given on previous years and that you are lying when trying to make it appear otherwise?" Ohh boy, you actually believed that one too, huh? You know, it would help to develop some critical thinking skills instead of just blindly believing everything that you wish to be true. Let me explain so you don't set yourself up for another disappointment. Just because USA approves aid to Ukraine for $X (what congress passes) doesn't mean that $X will make it to Ukraine. In fact most will stay in US and only a small portion of that $Y will make it to Ukraine (what Kiel Institute accounts for). Just look into the previous $113B congress passed $113 billion: Where the US investment in Ukraine aid has gone
...
The largest chunk has gone directly to help Ukraine’s military
The US has actually spent a bit more than $43 billion on security aid for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Does the money go where it’s supposed to?
There have been indications of corruption. Zelensky, for instance, replaced the leadership at his defense ministry just before traveling to the US to address the United Nations and appear at the White House with Biden.
And let me spell this out so you don't get confused on this one too, I'm only talking about USA, sure Brits just committed $0,6B and other countries commit too "by your comments that Ukraine is just playing golf with the Scalps" are you sure you're not confusing me with someone else here? Or are you a bot that just generates positive messages to keep up Ukraine's morale? Finally, it's getting ugly out there for Ukrainians, guess they decided to completely shred the constitution and citizens rights, hope everyone who has Ukrainian passport here managed to renew it or it's a one way ticket to execute American KPIs Anger among Ukrainians in Poland as Kyiv halts passport renewals |
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It is the houses special. I am not sure, but I think DaRude here is trying to make it look like getting 60 billion in aid is a bad thing and will not impact the rate of fatalities in the Ruzzian army? I mean... a 155MM shell is 300 US. 60B of shells would be like... 18 million shells? More than all that has been yet used in the war? A whole 6 year shell production of Ruzzia to their most optimistic stats? This is just to give an idea, not realistic, but... I would not want to be on the other side of this gun.
"" The cost for Excalibur has been estimated at around $100,000 per round, compared to about $3,000 for an unguided 155-mm shell." Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-key-us-weapons-artillery-shells-for-ukraine-is-soaring-2024-3I guess rest of your comments are just as accurate...wrong tenfold  Excalibur is an exception, used for targets that are at least x10 its cost. One shot, one less tank, one less Uragan... Your argument is very interesting, but does not stop the bullets. LOL You make a claim that "a 155MM shell is 300 US" Branko corrects you by citing a full sentence from Business Insider, which estimates the price of different shells including the one you mentioned 155-mm shell at $3,000. Then instead of thanking him for correcting your blatant mistake (or being caught on a lie) your reply with some irrelevant comment about that other shell? Do you have reading comprehension issues that you really don't understand Branko's citation, or you're just incapable of admitting that you were wrong, so much so, that you'd rather make yourself sound like a fool and be made fun of? Getting 60 billion would definitely impact the rate of Russian fatalities, but it's like someone giving Japan money after US nuked them, just to keep them fighting a bit longer. Would that increase Russian/American fatalities? Sure, but would it help Japan? Unlikely. I can't believe i have to explain this to you like you're a 6yr old, but here it goes, if something is bad for Russia, that doesn't automatically makes it good for Ukraine, as something bad for Russia can mean something even worse for Ukraine. Now if you don't care for Ukrainian losses and view this strictly from American point of view, than i stand corrected and you are right, finding fools to suicide themselves on your opponent is definitely advantageous. |
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... Huh why does it sounds like they're not talking about Ukraine winning at all, but just hoping for chance to hold back Russia from completely breaking through Ukrainian lines  I can repeat it again if you want, but since you do not seem to understand, I will use now the 6 year old version: - Make sure the bully does not get your lunch. - Make sure the bully gets punched in the face until he decides you lunch is not worth that much. - Keep hitting until the bully does not have any more resources to hit you. And then, kick the bully out of the room. Versus the wrong strategy of blind-charging a bigger guy like in summer. [...] I see, so still pushing the narrative that Ukraine is totally winning because its super-soldiers became uber-effective with some tech that will surely become a game changer. They just need to continue to give up land, and mobilize women Should they continue doing it in stages, drop the conscription age first to 21 before dropping it to 18 (you know boiling the frog), or just start conscripting 18yr olds right away? You know, because they're winning so hard, and things are better than ever for Ukraine? Do you think loosing Kharkiv wouldn't be a bad for Ukraine too? Because everything can be spun as a positive, willing to accept any Ukrainian loss as long as Russia is demilitarized a bit more for the US? No, those are your words not mine. A usual way of attacking an argument is taking it to the ridiculous. For example: "hey it seems that daRude is still reading that plan in which the parade in Kiev would be in day three, perhaps I should buy him a subscription for a newspaper" or "I guess you want to see 50% of the Ruzzian fleet in the bottom of the sea instead of the current 15% because you just love seafood". What I have said is that 60 billion in military aid are the roughly equivalent to six year of Ruzzia's production of shells to their most optimistic stats and that Ukraine is able to hit and has hit high-value targets up to 1000 kilometres from the front. Hint: take a look at where most of Ruzzia's most valuable factories and sites are. Hint: Do not look up population stats for Ukraine, just keep looking for any negative stat you can find on Russia, just make sure to present it in a vacuum without providing objective content.
I know Ukrainian statistics on population perfectly well. That is why I think they need to get free from Ruzzia and find the same progress Poland had during many decades after they got rid of Ruzzia and joined the EU. [...]
Back up your words or stop attempting to fool people. Find any major news outlets that claim that Ukraine is doing good at the front (overall not some marginal local victory), then we'll see who's cherry picking.
[...]
Back up your words or stop pretending this did not happen and that it is not going to affect Ruzzia.  Any credible source saying that Ukraine is worse-off after this? Because you are pretending to say it is. You're just repeating the same thing, over and over ad nauseam, totally ignoring what's happening at the front and in the country. Ukraine gaining ground=UA winning, soon UA will recover their 1991 borders and then go on Moscow. They should continue doing so Ukraine loosing ground=UA winning, UA just trading 1cm of land for 1billion of dead Russians. What a smart move, they should continue doing so It's like a broken record, you can't even define what a loss would look like for Ukraine. Or how bad situation must get on the front for you to start doubting the strategy. Spinning whatever happens, happens for the best because here are some pictures of some golfcarts Let's concentrate on some UA UAVs hitting some "targets up to 1000 kilometres from the front" and totally ignore the fact that Russia has been hitting ANY target it wanted in ALL OF UA, going as far as Poland with Poland even complaining that few Russian missiles crossed into their airspace Everything is great now and will be even better soon, just keep hanging in there, and send your women and teenagers to the front lines, because you know that's what victory looks like!?!? Just because fighting to the last Ukrainian is a great strategy for US doesn't make it so great for UA If you know "Ukrainian statistics on population perfectly well", then what's the point of no return? That is, how much population can afford to decline before it won't be able to recover in the same form we know Ukraine now? Which exact time frame are you asking me to compare UA positions at? Keep in mind that US will approve aid soon, but hasn't yet! |
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GM Wall Observers, a small pump back to $66,000. The halving has passed now, hopefully GBTC selling is slowing right down now that they have created a new mini ETF with 0.15% fees.
GBTC outflows 35millions today:  They are slowing down. The key assumption is liquidity. If the new GBTCmini has the same liquidity as the GBTC, then it will be a winner; otherwise, it's nonsense. But the huge seeding is a step in the right direction. If they seed it with BTC60k as they plan, that should provide plenty of liquidity as money makers just need to keep premium/discount to NAV to a minimum. Furthermore, with 0,15% fees they'll have the lowest fees from all ETFs (after teaser rates expire), so i'm actually expecting inflows to mini and outflows to the mothership. This week should give us a glimpse of what it'll be like once GBTC runs out of BTC. |
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Any estimates on how much money they're hemorrhaging? Which VCs and names are backing up this silliness, so we can make fun of them later? |
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[...] "Ukraine can keep fighting for years. ...Ukraine is in a better position than early in the war" that's a very...interesting statement, contrary to what everyone else have been reporting. When you say Ukraine can keep fighting for years, when do you think Ukraine would need to drop conscription age further to 21, and then mobilize women? Guessing you'd support such moves too right? Anything to demilitarize Russia just a tiny bit more? With recruits dwindling, Ukraine is urged to mobilise women Chief military adviser for gender issues says adopting Israel-style female conscription policy is necessary to tackle recruitment shortage
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As well as suffering from a shortage of munitions, Ukraine is increasingly in need of manpower, with army chiefs saying that as many as 500,000 new recruits will be needed this year. Both are correct, Ukraine needed ammo and systems in the date of those articles (roughly 10 days ago) AKA a shitmetricton of 155MM in the frontlines. Since then, an aid package nearly as big as what was given by US between early 2022 and late 2023 has been approved and it will not take long to get to where is needed. Look, Ruzzia knows. Why do you think they are pressing regardless of losses? Ukraine has the artillery and the trained manpower to stabilise the front if given ammo. Ukraine has developed a number of techniques that make good use of what they can get - e.g. able to impact refineries several hundred miles away from the front. US and Ukraine are now clear about what works and what does not work in Ukraine, so no more pressure to launch an offensive. Ruzzia has used up quite a few of their resources and Ukraine is achieving some tactical advantages in sea and air by attacking ships & airfields. The water is boiling for the frog. On regards to recruiting, yes it is necessary, just like in Ruzzia, but no, not half a million. Many soldiers have been too long in the frontline and there needs to be rotation. But when choosing an option, you must look at the other option: if you do not recruit, Ukraine population will be equally diminished by Ruzzian action. Just look at the population of Ruzzia itself during the last decades and the Ukrainian population pyramid. Letting Moscow choose your fait is a slow suicide - or a fast one if another Stalin decides to mass-kill all the farmers.  @Branko, it is not a good idea to send zero armour vehicles full of people in frontal assaults and Ruzzia is doing it. What is the point of discussing it? I see, so still pushing the narrative that Ukraine is totally winning because its super-soldiers became uber-effective with some tech that will surely become a game changer. They just need to continue to give up land, and mobilize women Should they continue doing it in stages, drop the conscription age first to 21 before dropping it to 18 (you know boiling the frog), or just start conscripting 18yr olds right away? You know, because they're winning so hard, and things are better than ever for Ukraine? Do you think loosing Kharkiv wouldn't be a bad for Ukraine too? Because everything can be spun as a positive, willing to accept any Ukrainian loss as long as Russia is demilitarized a bit more for the US? Hint: Do not look up population stats for Ukraine, just keep looking for any negative stat you can find on Russia, just make sure to present it in a vacuum without providing objective content.
...
LOL cherry season still in full swing apparently. Anything to avoid thinking as to why you need those cherries to begin with. Back up your words or stop attempting to fool people. Find any major news outlets that claim that Ukraine is doing good at the front (overall not some marginal local victory), then we'll see who's cherry picking. US aid to Ukraine: What difference will it make in war with Russia?
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The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv's chances of averting a major Russian breakthrough in the east, said two military analysts, an ex-Ukrainian defence minister and a European security official.
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"The most important source of Ukrainian weakness is the lack of manpower," said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military consultancy in Poland.
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Moscow has had the battlefield advantage since capturing Avdiivka, a long-time bastion town in the eastern Donbas region, in February, and its forces have been slowly advancing, using greater numbers of troops and artillery shells.
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Zelenskiy said last week that Russia was now able to fire 10 times more artillery rounds than Ukraine's troops. Russian forces outnumber Kyiv's troops 7-10 times in the east, a Ukrainian general said this month.
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Replenished stocks of artillery shells should bring the gap in rounds fired down to several Russian rounds for every one Ukrainian round, he added.
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A senior European security source told Reuters that if Ukraine received the new U.S. and EU assistance, the likelihood of averting a major Russian breakthrough over the next 12 months was "quite high".
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The Ukrainian military needed a "massive" influx of personnel to stall Russian forces across the entire front, Muzyka said, adding that a separate recruitment drive to enlist volunteer fighters would not be enough to cover the deficit.
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"Essentially what we're looking at in 2024 is as strong enough a defensive position as possible, but accepting that the Ukrainians are probably going to lose some ground to the Russians," Matthew Savill, military sciences director at the London-based RUSI think-tank, said. Huh why does it sounds like they're not talking about Ukraine winning at all, but just hoping for chance to hold back Russia from completely breaking through Ukrainian lines |
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[...] Despite being in a worse position after $278B commitment (failed counter-offensive, no air defense left, shortages in equipment and personnel on the front lines, and destroyed power generation capacity), by cutting support by almost half from what it was in 2022, that will now somehow be "sufficient amount to implement the strategy I think the US wants implemented"? Did i understand your point correctly? ergo, this is about keeping Ruzzia at war for as long as it takes I agree with this, only for some reason despite everything that is happening you appear to think that Ukraine can somehow outlast this? Or did i misunderstood you and you now feel that Ukraine is just collateral damage in the game to demilitarizing Russia a bit more, thus why we support but not sending F16s position? And you theory on US not having any downside and only being a benefactor, conveniently completely ignores China, and that having printer go Brrrr causes inflation, which causes internal issues. No you do not. You are completely missing the point: The US is demilitarising Ruzzia and selling more weapons than ever to everyone. Ukraine is ok with doing the job in exchange for keep being a free independent Ukraine. Ukraine can keep fighting for years. It will take you around couple of years to realize what is happening - like a slowly boiling frog - and even then you will not admit it. It does not matter, is equally real. Ukraine is in a better position than early in the war: Ruzzia cannot replenish tanks, missiles or ship at the rate these are being lost or used. From having no air defence, Ukraine now has the platforms and the trained people while additional patriots & other are now approved - including a few from Europe. Ukrainian pilots are nearly completely trained in the F16 and several of these are arriving from Europe and possibly US. Ukraine has developed long range drones that can hit even in Karelia. I do not think you are following the events, but Ruzzia has relocated the strategic bombers to a base in Karelia because they are no longer safe anywere else near Ukraine and they cannot build more. BTW check you math, 60B is only from US and only for now. You are not counting on EU and others help. In two years 22 to 24, US sent 70B only. I am not ignoring China (now in a crisis) nor inflation by printing. There are many risks, as there are many potential opportunities, for now what matters is that 100 republicans voted yes to aid, which may give you a glimpse of what the future could look like. US approval of more than $60 billion in aid throws a lifeline to Ukraine’s beleaguered military, though it’s unlikely to turn the tide in the war on its own.
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As the package was stalled for six months in Congress, Kyiv’s military has grappled with an ever-more acute shortage of ammunition and manpower, while Kremlin forces press their advantage. A dire shortage of ammunition and manpower along the 1,200-kilometer (930 mile) front and gaps in air defense show that Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war, according to Western officials with knowledge of the situation.
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Russian forces are benefiting from a widening gap in ammunition supplies, with Moscow set to secure 6 million shells this year with ramped-up production and supplies from North Korea and Iran, according to one official. Ukraine lowers its conscription age to 25 to replenish its beleaguered troops
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Ukraine lowered its draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25 on Wednesday, reflecting the strain that more than two years of war with Russia has put on its military and the need to infuse its depleted ranks with new conscripts. "Ukraine can keep fighting for years. ...Ukraine is in a better position than early in the war" that's a very...interesting statement, contrary to what everyone else have been reporting. When you say Ukraine can keep fighting for years, when do you think Ukraine would need to drop conscription age further to 21, and then mobilize women? Guessing you'd support such moves too right? Anything to demilitarize Russia just a tiny bit more? With recruits dwindling, Ukraine is urged to mobilise women Chief military adviser for gender issues says adopting Israel-style female conscription policy is necessary to tackle recruitment shortage
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As well as suffering from a shortage of munitions, Ukraine is increasingly in need of manpower, with army chiefs saying that as many as 500,000 new recruits will be needed this year. |
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Still alive, he he, still killing invaders in astronomic numbers. [...] Yep, most of them destroyed by my company near Avdiivka. 2 of 3 photo had been taken on our frontline. Despite your irony, golfcarts are versalite vehicle, sometimes it's realy hard to spot and catch up one of it with an FPV kamikaze. The last one from our work - https://t.me/strikedronescompany/174 . Epic video i think  [...] We doing both. Destroying facilities with long range drones and killing russian units on battlefield. Our company kills in average 10 orcs and wound 10 more. So like 20 orcs in a day in average. Sometimes more (when they trying to assault) sometimes less. At this point that is the job, and since it has to be done, the more the better. Sad truth of war. Yet the collapse has not happened, we are seeing pictures of Ruzzian soldiers on "golfcarts" trying to advance, the US is far closer to approving 60 billion in aid ...
The aid to Ukraine is to fight Ruzzia. This means that Ukraine will be able to either stop Ruzzian advances, recover some ground or keep on hitting the targets that are more valuable, thus achieving a further demilitarisation of Ruzzia - hopefully will take a couple of decades to build what they have and will keep on loosing.
In any of those cases, Ukraine keeps being an independent nation, potentially can join the EU and/or NATO with nothing that Putin can do to avoid it and Ruzzia cannot present all the waste of money and human lives of Ruzzians as anything remotely close to a victory.
Look, the sooner the Orcs are clearly stopped and choose to starting thinking about a reasonable proposal instead of joke-like stuff, the better for the world's economy.
Hey, dumBAss, I hope you are not to old.... one can spend a whole life waiting for a dollar collapse and die before it happens still thinking that is "very close". I am sure you know what I am talking about.
Surely you must agree that if US really wanted Ukraine to either stop Russia or recover some ground then stopping the aid for 4 months, and not sending tech until it's too late (M777, HIMARS, PATRIOT, ATACMS, F16 etc etc etc...) just sounds like a cruel joke and wouldn't make any sense at all. Now the last point (highlighted) is totally logical. Prolonging the conflict just to annoy Russia a bit longer, little downside for US except some $$. Unfortunately the downside for Ukraine on the other hand, might be unrecoverable, but no one is counting or really seems to care about that now, lets just wave some flags to keep them in the fight a bit longer. Yes, yes, orcs on golfcarts probably without weapons too, just with some slingshots, and Ukraine will totally join NATO any day now, just need to keep the Ukrainian population hanging in there a bit longer... Latest news, Ruzzia is likely going to help Ukraine fight Ruzzia, at least to a point. Council of Europe unanimously votes to use seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine reconstruction, compensation
https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/council-of-europe-unanimously-votes-to-use-seized-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine-reconstruction-compensation/Surely you agree that in you are in front of a 60 billion gun pointed at your jugular while sending people to fight in golf carts is time to start rethinking if this was such a great idea in the first place. For what I have seen in the front and during the summer campaign, Ukraine has been changing the strategy to simply making the war extremely expensive for Ruzzia. if I were Ukraine, I would not be thinking of sending my troops to the frontline or try to recover ground meter by meter, I would rather be thinking of using all those new long-range drones that I have to send Ruzzia into the stone age of communications, oil production and energy generation, destroy aplenty their air defence and airfields and any plane that gets 100 km from the front while while stopping wave after wave of Ruzzian meat. It is clear to me that is much better to prevent Ruzzia from financing the war and destroying assets that they simply cannot replace any longer than risking Ukrainian lives for a stretch of ground. Only then, after a year of "changing the perception" of the other side and demilitarising the best of the best Ruzzian war assets, I would encourage them to make a proposal for war reparations and an orderly withdrawal before someone puts a bullet in Putin's head. Remember what I said a million times, there is only one winner to this war and it is not Ukraine, is not Ruzzia and is not the EU. Golfcarts - You are free not to believe what Ruzzia is sending to the front - I would not want to believe it either if I were you - but the golf carts are well documented for anyone who is following the conflict, and is not behind the lines, it is in the frontlines. This along with the "hangar tank" to transport troops and other "inventions" that use meat armour mostly. [...] But this is nothing compared with the destruction of more expensive vehicles. A said all is well documented and geolocated - you can choose not to look at it, it does not matter. So let me get this straight, Global aid to Ukraine has reached a staggering 253 billion euros committed as of Jan. 15 [2024], or about $278 billion (that's from Feb 2022, so about $139B/yr) and we all see the results of that, no air defense left, collapsing front lines, and destroyed power grid with power outages. But you're saying that the next commitment of $60 billion (just 21% from what was committed before) will somehow totally change everything? You realize how ridiculous that sounds right, do you really expect anyone to believe this? Edit: Congress Approved $113 Billion of Aid to Ukraine in 2022 but just about a half of that, $60B in 2024 "is time to start rethinking if this was such a great idea in the first place" riiiiiiiiiiight I take it you then think it was a good idea then? I know, I just wrote it: It will take one or two years to change that perception, and unfortunately for all except the US, lots of blood and iron. . I honestly think that the US does not care much about sending 60 billion, 100 billion or 300 billion, what they do care about is the "return on investment", that is, how many air defence systems, how many jets & bombers, how many tanks, how many radars and how many industrial installations get destroyed for every dollar sent. Make no mistake: for US this is about demilitarising Ruzzia without sending the country into chaos (too many nuclear loose ends in that case) - ergo, this is about keeping Ruzzia at war for as long as it takes. If you are counting on the US or the EU just not knowing what they do... good luck. 60 B, let's say 20% of all the aid if you wish, is going to a country that has developed a range of weapons that can target nearly anything in 1000 km from Ukraine is quite a sufficient amount to implement the strategy I think the US wants implemented. My guess is that the Ukranian government(and what is more important the allies) perfectly understand that it is not a good idea to charge into Ruzzian positions just like that. Ukraine has become very skilled in causing economic pain to Ruzzia with very little money, 60 B gets you: Firstly, it is enough to stop the Ruzzian attacks in the front. Sufficient artillery is enough to stop the advances or make them incredibly expensive. Second, it is enough for air defence. Ruzzia does not have as many missiles as at the beginning of the war and the production is not really big. Ukraine will now be able to deal to the bigger threats, not with all though. Thirdly, the refineries are a good target along with all the oil exporting facilities and depots. That would need to happen after the US elections to make sure it does not raise inflation - a big factor in US. I do not think there is a specific interest in killing Ruzzian soldiers, but it is going to happen innevitably. Which leads me to the news today: Another Ruzzian ship has been likely "decomissioned" in Sebastopol - a piece of crap, but still a ship. My guess it will start changing perceptions once half of the Black Sea fleet is gone. Two years is my guess, maybe less as there seems to be a new version of the Neptune missile. https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-in-sevastopol-russian-ship-reportedly-on-fire-and-c Despite being in a worse position after $278B commitment (failed counter-offensive, no air defense left, shortages in equipment and personnel on the front lines, and destroyed power generation capacity), by cutting support by almost half from what it was in 2022, that will now somehow be "sufficient amount to implement the strategy I think the US wants implemented"? Did i understand your point correctly? ergo, this is about keeping Ruzzia at war for as long as it takes I agree with this, only for some reason despite everything that is happening you appear to think that Ukraine can somehow outlast this? Or did i misunderstood you and you now feel that Ukraine is just collateral damage in the game to demilitarizing Russia a bit more, thus why we support but not sending F16s position? And you theory on US not having any downside and only being a benefactor, conveniently completely ignores China, and that having printer go Brrrr causes inflation, which causes internal issues. |
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Yet the collapse has not happened, we are seeing pictures of Ruzzian soldiers on "golfcarts" trying to advance, the US is far closer to approving 60 billion in aid ...
The aid to Ukraine is to fight Ruzzia. This means that Ukraine will be able to either stop Ruzzian advances, recover some ground or keep on hitting the targets that are more valuable, thus achieving a further demilitarisation of Ruzzia - hopefully will take a couple of decades to build what they have and will keep on loosing.
In any of those cases, Ukraine keeps being an independent nation, potentially can join the EU and/or NATO with nothing that Putin can do to avoid it and Ruzzia cannot present all the waste of money and human lives of Ruzzians as anything remotely close to a victory.
Look, the sooner the Orcs are clearly stopped and choose to starting thinking about a reasonable proposal instead of joke-like stuff, the better for the world's economy.
Hey, dumBAss, I hope you are not to old.... one can spend a whole life waiting for a dollar collapse and die before it happens still thinking that is "very close". I am sure you know what I am talking about.
Surely you must agree that if US really wanted Ukraine to either stop Russia or recover some ground then stopping the aid for 4 months, and not sending tech until it's too late (M777, HIMARS, PATRIOT, ATACMS, F16 etc etc etc...) just sounds like a cruel joke and wouldn't make any sense at all. Now the last point (highlighted) is totally logical. Prolonging the conflict just to annoy Russia a bit longer, little downside for US except some $$. Unfortunately the downside for Ukraine on the other hand, might be unrecoverable, but no one is counting or really seems to care about that now, lets just wave some flags to keep them in the fight a bit longer. Yes, yes, orcs on golfcarts probably without weapons too, just with some slingshots, and Ukraine will totally join NATO any day now, just need to keep the Ukrainian population hanging in there a bit longer... Latest news, Ruzzia is likely going to help Ukraine fight Ruzzia, at least to a point. Council of Europe unanimously votes to use seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine reconstruction, compensation
https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/council-of-europe-unanimously-votes-to-use-seized-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine-reconstruction-compensation/Surely you agree that in you are in front of a 60 billion gun pointed at your jugular while sending people to fight in golf carts is time to start rethinking if this was such a great idea in the first place. For what I have seen in the front and during the summer campaign, Ukraine has been changing the strategy to simply making the war extremely expensive for Ruzzia. if I were Ukraine, I would not be thinking of sending my troops to the frontline or try to recover ground meter by meter, I would rather be thinking of using all those new long-range drones that I have to send Ruzzia into the stone age of communications, oil production and energy generation, destroy aplenty their air defence and airfields and any plane that gets 100 km from the front while while stopping wave after wave of Ruzzian meat. It is clear to me that is much better to prevent Ruzzia from financing the war and destroying assets that they simply cannot replace any longer than risking Ukrainian lives for a stretch of ground. Only then, after a year of "changing the perception" of the other side and demilitarising the best of the best Ruzzian war assets, I would encourage them to make a proposal for war reparations and an orderly withdrawal before someone puts a bullet in Putin's head. Remember what I said a million times, there is only one winner to this war and it is not Ukraine, is not Ruzzia and is not the EU. Golfcarts - You are free not to believe what Ruzzia is sending to the front - I would not want to believe it either if I were you - but the golf carts are well documented for anyone who is following the conflict, and is not behind the lines, it is in the frontlines. This along with the "hangar tank" to transport troops and other "inventions" that use meat armour mostly. https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1760668865821135261     But this is nothing compared with the destruction of more expensive vehicles. A said all is well documented and geolocated - you can choose not to look at it, it does not matter. So let me get this straight, Global aid to Ukraine has reached a staggering 253 billion euros committed as of Jan. 15 [2024], or about $278 billion (that's from Feb 2022, so about $139B/yr) and we all see the results of that, no air defense left, collapsing front lines, and destroyed power grid with power outages. But you're saying that the next commitment of $60 billion (just 21% from what was committed before) will somehow totally change everything? You realize how ridiculous that sounds right, do you really expect anyone to believe this? Edit: Congress Approved $113 Billion of Aid to Ukraine in 2022 but just about a half of that, $60B in 2024 "is time to start rethinking if this was such a great idea in the first place" riiiiiiiiiiight |
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Yet the collapse has not happened, we are seeing pictures of Ruzzian soldiers on "golfcarts" trying to advance, the US is far closer to approving 60 billion in aid ...
The aid to Ukraine is to fight Ruzzia. This means that Ukraine will be able to either stop Ruzzian advances, recover some ground or keep on hitting the targets that are more valuable, thus achieving a further demilitarisation of Ruzzia - hopefully will take a couple of decades to build what they have and will keep on loosing.
In any of those cases, Ukraine keeps being an independent nation, potentially can join the EU and/or NATO with nothing that Putin can do to avoid it and Ruzzia cannot present all the waste of money and human lives of Ruzzians as anything remotely close to a victory.
Look, the sooner the Orcs are clearly stopped and choose to starting thinking about a reasonable proposal instead of joke-like stuff, the better for the world's economy.
Hey, dumBAss, I hope you are not to old.... one can spend a whole life waiting for a dollar collapse and die before it happens still thinking that is "very close". I am sure you know what I am talking about.
Surely you must agree that if US really wanted Ukraine to either stop Russia or recover some ground then stopping the aid for 4 months, and not sending tech until it's too late (M777, HIMARS, PATRIOT, ATACMS, F16 etc etc etc...) just sounds like a cruel joke and wouldn't make any sense at all. Now the last point (highlighted) is totally logical. Prolonging the conflict just to annoy Russia a bit longer, little downside for US except some $$. Unfortunately the downside for Ukraine on the other hand, might be unrecoverable, but no one is counting or really seems to care about that now, lets just wave some flags to keep them in the fight a bit longer. Yes, yes, orcs on golfcarts probably without weapons too, just with some slingshots, and Ukraine will totally join NATO any day now, just need to keep the Ukrainian population hanging in there a bit longer... |
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A few interesting news. Firstly, the aid to Ukraine along with other bills for Israel and Taiwan are going to be voted in the US. It is likely that the Biden admin has managed to get enough support while ensuring that the Speaker (Republican) is not impeached by the extreme Trumpists in Congress, but everything at the moment is just a glimpse of hope rather than a certainty. The aid would be a blow to the Ruzzian chances of presenting a clear win in Ukraine, perhaps to presenting anything win-like. On the front, a Ruzzia strategic bomber (with capacity to carry nukes) has been downed by a missile. This is super expensive and very difficult to replace - perhaps even impossible. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwTAK0v5OPkThere is satellite confirmation of the loss of an S-400 battery due to the Ukrainian attack a couple of days ago with ATACAMS, used at maximum range probably. Warning signs of frontline collapse amid Russian offensive — Ukrainian officer
...In a recent interview with NV Radio on April 18, major Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, acknowledged the possibility of a frontline collapse due to increasing Russian military pressure.
"It is indeed possible [to imagine the front collapsing]," Zhorin stated, emphasizing the importance of preparing for the worst-case scenario. He reported a notable escalation in Russian operations, extending their reach beyond traditional front lines and increasing covert activities. “I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we’ve gotten” -Johnson Do you think the aid is to help Ukraine get back to 1991 borders, or just enough to try and keep it from a complete collapse, to keep it fighting for few more months? The timing and the sudden change of heart of the speaker after he got the intel surely must sound suspect, no? Like all the previous deliveries, that is, not to win but barely enough to keep it in the fight just a bit longer. Or of course it's all just a coincidence... |
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Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini and The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing. Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k ( BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated... Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini. Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC. That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol. However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day? Which part is irrelevant exactly? Fee is a fee. Not sure why you're picking extremes in volatility in other funds to further your point? In fact to flip this around, if you time it right you might add 2% profit on other funds by exploiting inefficiencies of their market makers (APs), come in when it trades at a discount and exit at a premium 1,3% savings on fees, is about 1,3% relevant regardless how much underlying is moving.
Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini and The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing. Also lol, GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. So for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put you at 1,23% overall Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k ( BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated... Sorry, but it is irrelevant as you don't know the future trajectory of mini. Example: it could trade at a premium and since GBTC trades with no discount, you still come out ahead. For example, ibit trades between 0.84% discount and 0.98% premium. Same for FBTC. That's almost 2% range. I know...the snickering must continue regardless of facts, lol. However, ask yourself: how relevant is this when we go up/down 5% a day? From what I understand from the link, it's mainly a way to keep customers happy, who are "stuck" in the Grayscale environment if they don't want to pay a lot of taxes. Hahaha ohh you got me there, yes i'm sure GBTC really cares about keeping their customers happy, you funny, i like you Edit: On the bright side we might see a stop on GBTC outflows until mini is listed, meaning price...  |
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Lol going from 1,5% fee to 0,15% on a mini  and The filing also provides an illustrative example of the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) Grayscale will contribute to the mini fund: 63,204 bitcoin, or 10% of existing assets in GBTC, as per the filing. Ummm GBTC currently holds about BTC304k so 63.204 would represent 20% of existing assets. Thus for GBTC holders 80% @ 1,5%fee, and 20% @ 0,15%fee would still put them at 1,23% fee overall Edit: Or to look at it from another angle, they would still have BTC241k ( BTC304k - BTC63k) waiting to be liquidated... |
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What's the opinion on Bitcoin transaction fees here? I'd say Bitcoin is broken if any UTXO under 0.001 BTC isn't even enough to pay for it's own transaction fee.   Blocks now have a 3.125 BTC block reward and 10 BTC transaction fees. And as the above image shows: only a few percent is used by normal Bitcoin users with normal transactions. Spammers literally pay 4 million dollars per hour now to create meaningless Bitcoin dust. See mempool.space for Mempool Goggles, and click Data to see only the "Ordinal" spam. My opinion is that the decentralized system is operating as intended. There's are fundamental trade offs between decentralization/security and scarcity. Nothing is fundamentally broken just short term spam, for smaller transactions move to L2. Expecting your coffee purchase to be replicated around the world and take up resources on tens of thousands of computers is like going after a fly with a bazooka. That's why L2 was created for smaller transactions, you sacrifice some security for more availability. With ~5.000 transaction per block, it'll take theoretical maximum of just 5 BTC/block to completely keep your 0,001 UTXO unviable, in practice with multiplication effect, and other users on the network it takes much much less to spam bitcoin blockchain. |
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The fees are very high, I read that it is because of the launch of something called RUNE, (I don't know what it is about)... but I will probably have to accumulate some BTC from DCA on an exchange before withdrawing... unfortunately. I hope things get back to normal soon.
Does anyone have any alternative to this, of keeping some BTC in an exchange for a while? before withdrawing to the wallet? I don't think there's much to do except wait
I LMGTFY'ed for y'all: https://cointelegraph.com/news/runes-protocol-ignite-new-season-bitcoin-after-halvingThe Runes token protocol is set to activate when the halving occurs. A battle for block space will begin where players will compete with each other to see who can issue the first tokens and the best token names, followed by a battle to see who can be the first to buy these tokens.
OMFG, hordes of apes competing over block space. Ordinals must be stopped ASAP  Additionally, in anticipation of Bitcoin network congestion, some projects are creating solutions to scale trading on the Runes protocol. In the past, a bridge that enabled the exchange of Bitcoin assets on Solana was successful. Now, platforms more aligned with Bitcoin are emerging — such as RuneChain, a Bitcoin layer-2 focused on Runes.
Chain my ass! *SMH* I was wondering about the fees, this explains it. Interesting how they need to run it as a lottery for the multiplication attack to work. i.e. bunch of idiots waste a ton of their money for a chance where a few might benefit, but PR of some idiot "winning the lottery" might be enough to draw more idiots in. High fees should take care of this problem soon enough, when enough idiots loose their BTC and the rest realize how economically unviable this is. |
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