There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.
Theoretically everything is possible but not always! I'd even accept this argument over marcus's logic where miners can't go bankrupt. Listen you lying, slippery little piece of shit ... no part of my argument ever said " ... miners can't go bankrupt..." ?? Do not try and put words in my mouth again. If you don't want to learn then just stfu and stop making the world a worse place for others who might want to learn. BTC price can't fall below cost of production = miners always make profit Miners make profit = miners won't go bankrupt And seems like i'm not the only one who can't follow your logic, maybe we're all dumb here and can't learn from you? And one more name calling and on ignore you go, you'd be the first "legend" |
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..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too
True, but I doubt most are in etherpoop. The thing is, most of the time big long positions are a recipe for disaster, which is why I was reluctant to jump into the breakout at first, but if speculators can correctly predict an influx of new money, then we are A-OK, and I think this has been happening. People who were interested in bitcoin before, and have been following it a bit are deciding they don't want to miss the train, and jumping on. The real bubble starts when we reach the people who haven't seriously considered investing yet. The bull in me agrees, think(hope?) market is underestimating the effects and coverage of the halvening, expecting some wild swings during this month Kinda scared me when longs went full retard and ate up all the swaps causing the daily rate on finex to jump to above 0.5%. If it'd held that would squeeze a lot of them |
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..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too
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There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.
Theoretically everything is possible but not always! I think this has actually happened before for brief periods. Anyways, looks like we are heading up again. Go BTC  Reassuring to see a little nibble but will need lots more, still BTC15k are stacked till $650 on Finex someone cashing in big time |
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There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.
Theoretically everything is possible but not always! I'd even accept this argument over marcus's logic where miners can't go bankrupt. Yes spacetime continuum and we're all holograms in some blackhole's matrix. |
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I guess you cant read so I'll repeat it for you:
cost of production forms a soft lower bound for price, an 'elastic' floor if you will.
Cost of production is related to difficulty but not directly or in a definite proportional relation since it is complicated by many other factors like cost of rig development, software development and operational labour overheads, electricity, etc. So now I've opened it up to the total complexity (that really just complicates with enlightening) this is the bit where you try to wriggle out and lead the conversation into the weeds, minutiae, thread-trashing and scatological references to obfuscate the central premise that doesn't fit your permabear, anti-bitcoin case.
I am wildly bullish, but your statements don't seem logical to me. There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty. I am not saying that is what I expect to happen in the near future, just that it can happen. Please try reasoning with arguments instead of resorting to aggressive end statements. I'm not being aggressive, I'm just explaining how it goes every time I lay it out as simply as I can. Look I don't have time to go through it all again so I can't really help you anymore if you don't get it yet, sorry. Bravo, that sums it up nicely. And i'm a anti-bitcoin permabear now  Dragon is pushing again, but ask side is pretty steep on finex plus i'm sure Mr BTC5k ask wall is still lurking somewhere |
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yes, any day now difficulty will be dropping and my 2 netbooks will make me a fortune again ...  Ok i give up. Yes you figured it out, hash rate = $price CCMF  |
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Cost of production is doubling in less than a month ... that will set the new floor for bitcoin price to the $840-960 range (at the minimum without difficulty increases) in the medium term.
Cost of production for a monetary good is the economic defence against counterfeiting. While gold is money, and sometimes attracts a monetary premium substantially above it's cost of production, for someone to produce gold "from nothing" they need to expend an equivalent amount of resources to the cost of production. Over long terms the price of the monetary good may be attracted to its cost of production but ultimately that is as cheap as you can acquire it for, as long as it is still desirable as a monetary good. For the same reason the lowest value of fiat paper money is the cost of the paper it is printed on and the ink, i.e. it's cost of production (about a few cents for a $100 bill).
While bitcoin is still valued as a monetary good, that can be transported in minutes across the internet as a final settlement for bearer instruments exchanged on a censorship-resistant network, it still needs to defend against counterfeiting. The cost of production defends against counterfeiting since this is as cheap as you can produce bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes more desirable for other reasons of its utility, such as store of value, medium of exchange (network effect increasing), etc., then it may easily attract a monetary good premium on top of the cost of production, but the cost of production has invariably set the floor for the lower bound on bitcoin prices, as long as it has remained a monetary good.
Bitcoin is still monetising.
agreed, the lower boundary of the rpcie is the production cost.
It could accidentally be below this value for a short time, but never for long. The upper boundary is pretty much unlimited (limited only by the amount of value we can exchange for it). So the absolute upper value would be everything in the world divided by the amount of bitcoin in circulation. Of course we would never quite reach that value, but that would be the absolute upper limit it could never go above. Ughh ingenious  following that logic lets Step 1: Increase difficulty 10x fold, thus increasing cost of production for all miners 10x Step 2: Step 3: Bitcoin to da moon??? Just have to somehow get the note to investors for them to check the current productions costs before they decide the utility value of BTC and how much they should be willing to pay for BTC A transaction has 2 sides, a buyer and a seller Let's assume some people sell for less than the cost of production, eventually they will run out of coins to sell, and the only new coins on the market will be either coins that were bought before and resold (usually t a higher price, because no one would like to sell for less than they bought for, unless forced to do so). Or freshly mined coins, that well sell at least at the price of production, unless the miner is forced to sell for lower to cover his expenses, but if a miner continually sells at a loss, mining will be unprofitable for him, so eventually he'll be forced to quit. Therefore, over time, the price will reach at least the price of production, because those who sell for less than that will run out of coins to sell. I don't know how I can explain it any simpler. No no and again no, seller doesn't set the price buyer does. Market couldn't care less what seller likes or doesn't like. Here's the price someone is willing to buy the BTC you produced if that's not profitable for you, you go out of business, you go out of business there's less hash power dificulty adjust all other miners are that tiny bit more profitable. Rinse and repeat. On a separate note, everyone ignoring that BTC5k sell wall @ $576 Ok, I'd like to buy all your bitcoins for $1 each. Also, if you happen to have any gold, i offer $0.01 per gram of gold. I'd also like to buy both your house and your car for a combined price of $3 You see? Nobody would accept such offers because they're complete garbage offers, way below the price the seller wants for them, So the seller chooses not to sell. The price has to be agreed between buyer and seller, if one of them does not agree, the trade is off. If you don't even understand this, don't bother replying, because i'd be better of talking to a banana peel. The demand doesn't come from one buyer but from market as a whole, as a seller obviously i choose the highest bidder. Why would i sell it to you for $1 when someone else is willing to pay $575? Now i'd prefer to sell it for $10,000 each because i bought a bunch of these USB miners from my local retail store and my cost of electricity is sky high, but somehow i doubt that any buyer cares much about that. Miners must sell, and don't have an option not to because they don't like the price. Otherwise they become investors and carry additional FX exposure risk on their "inventory" (assuming utilities, salaries, equipment, is purchased with other currency). They're not kids mining in parents garage that can choose not to sell if they don't like the price, and somehow get a consortium going where everyone other miner does the same. Your line of though only works if all (or majority) of miners collaborate together in kind of an oligopoly (think OPEC) and agree to artificially restrict supply bellow certain price, and even that probably won't work for long. Or to use your example: I want to buy BTC from you for $575, you want to sell it for $1000 and explain how your cost of production is so high. I wish you good luck finding an idiot that cares, and just wait after you lower the price to my buy range or invest in something else. After spending few days trying to convince people to buy it for $1000 because of your high production cost you give up or get hungry or need to pay the electricity bill and sell it to the highest bidder. The fall in your logic is that it doesn't account for difficulty adjustments and that it can scale down. |
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Cost of production is doubling in less than a month ... that will set the new floor for bitcoin price to the $840-960 range (at the minimum without difficulty increases) in the medium term.
Cost of production for a monetary good is the economic defence against counterfeiting. While gold is money, and sometimes attracts a monetary premium substantially above it's cost of production, for someone to produce gold "from nothing" they need to expend an equivalent amount of resources to the cost of production. Over long terms the price of the monetary good may be attracted to its cost of production but ultimately that is as cheap as you can acquire it for, as long as it is still desirable as a monetary good. For the same reason the lowest value of fiat paper money is the cost of the paper it is printed on and the ink, i.e. it's cost of production (about a few cents for a $100 bill).
While bitcoin is still valued as a monetary good, that can be transported in minutes across the internet as a final settlement for bearer instruments exchanged on a censorship-resistant network, it still needs to defend against counterfeiting. The cost of production defends against counterfeiting since this is as cheap as you can produce bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes more desirable for other reasons of its utility, such as store of value, medium of exchange (network effect increasing), etc., then it may easily attract a monetary good premium on top of the cost of production, but the cost of production has invariably set the floor for the lower bound on bitcoin prices, as long as it has remained a monetary good.
Bitcoin is still monetising.
agreed, the lower boundary of the rpcie is the production cost.
It could accidentally be below this value for a short time, but never for long. The upper boundary is pretty much unlimited (limited only by the amount of value we can exchange for it). So the absolute upper value would be everything in the world divided by the amount of bitcoin in circulation. Of course we would never quite reach that value, but that would be the absolute upper limit it could never go above. Ughh ingenious following that logic lets Step 1: Increase difficulty 10x fold, thus increasing cost of production for all miners 10x Step 2: Step 3: Bitcoin to da moon??? Just have to somehow get the note to investors for them to check the current productions costs before they decide the utility value of BTC and how much they should be willing to pay for BTC A transaction has 2 sides, a buyer and a seller Let's assume some people sell for less than the cost of production, eventually they will run out of coins to sell, and the only new coins on the market will be either coins that were bought before and resold (usually t a higher price, because no one would like to sell for less than they bought for, unless forced to do so). Or freshly mined coins, that well sell at least at the price of production, unless the miner is forced to sell for lower to cover his expenses, but if a miner continually sells at a loss, mining will be unprofitable for him, so eventually he'll be forced to quit. Therefore, over time, the price will reach at least the price of production, because those who sell for less than that will run out of coins to sell. I don't know how I can explain it any simpler. No no and again no, seller doesn't set the price buyer does. Market couldn't care less what seller likes or doesn't like. Here's the price someone is willing to buy the BTC you produced if that's not profitable for you, you go out of business, you go out of business there's less hash power dificulty adjust all other miners are that tiny bit more profitable. Rinse and repeat. On a separate note, everyone ignoring that BTC5k sell wall @ $576 |
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Cost of production is doubling in less than a month ... that will set the new floor for bitcoin price to the $840-960 range (at the minimum without difficulty increases) in the medium term.
Cost of production for a monetary good is the economic defence against counterfeiting. While gold is money, and sometimes attracts a monetary premium substantially above it's cost of production, for someone to produce gold "from nothing" they need to expend an equivalent amount of resources to the cost of production. Over long terms the price of the monetary good may be attracted to its cost of production but ultimately that is as cheap as you can acquire it for, as long as it is still desirable as a monetary good. For the same reason the lowest value of fiat paper money is the cost of the paper it is printed on and the ink, i.e. it's cost of production (about a few cents for a $100 bill).
While bitcoin is still valued as a monetary good, that can be transported in minutes across the internet as a final settlement for bearer instruments exchanged on a censorship-resistant network, it still needs to defend against counterfeiting. The cost of production defends against counterfeiting since this is as cheap as you can produce bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes more desirable for other reasons of its utility, such as store of value, medium of exchange (network effect increasing), etc., then it may easily attract a monetary good premium on top of the cost of production, but the cost of production has invariably set the floor for the lower bound on bitcoin prices, as long as it has remained a monetary good.
Bitcoin is still monetising.
agreed, the lower boundary of the rpcie is the production cost.
It could accidentally be below this value for a short time, but never for long. The upper boundary is pretty much unlimited (limited only by the amount of value we can exchange for it). So the absolute upper value would be everything in the world divided by the amount of bitcoin in circulation. Of course we would never quite reach that value, but that would be the absolute upper limit it could never go above. Ughh ingenious following that logic lets Step 1: Increase difficulty 10x fold, thus increasing cost of production for all miners 10x Step 2: Step 3: Bitcoin to da moon??? Just have to somehow get the note to investors for them to check the current productions costs before they decide the utility value of BTC and how much they should be willing to pay for BTC |
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It is just so many hooked up with this myth that mining costs somehow influence bitcoin prices. They are not.
... all empirical evidence to the contrary. Just keep telling yourself whatever myth you like to keep yourself inside your comfort zone. Regardless, money is what does and if you aren't well enough informed with the money markets you'll most likely lose 'money' speculating on bitcoin. Start here http://szabo.best.vwh.net/shell.html for some insight to get rid of all that bullshit confusion you just spread everywhere Good morning:) Thanks, i have read it like a year ago, it is a fascinating read(!), i think i even linked it somewhere in a reply long ago. Still, i think Szabo's whole point is that money is an abstraction, a creation of the human mind for "...to solve problems of cooperation that other animals cannot.." and cryptos are the ultimate proof, that this abstraction can exist purely as information, completely detached from the physical form. That is precisely why i am saying that it can not have a traditional production cost, because it is pure information, a number only - actually, more like an entropic state. The empirical evidence is this: buyers/sellers on the market does not care, how much computing went to the same bitcoin units of 2010, or 2016, 1 bitcoin= 1 bitcoin, regardless of electricity burned to "compute" it - as i have written here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg15108324#msg15108324, there is no production, every new block will enable a new UTXO in the coinbase transaction, DESPITE the computational power used - the same with 1 laptop humming on the desk, or a gigantic asic farm factory, 1 block will release the same amount of BTC/as defined by the blockheight as unspent transaction output. Saying that "production costs" - whatever that would mean to generate a random number basically - reflecting in the market value of BTC is saying people are checking price tags in a supermarket by calculating how much it cost the producer to make a bottle of milk. They do not care. They will check the competing MARGINAL UTILITY of the goods satisfying their needs, they could not care - or has the ability to calculate - about production costs. Same with bitcoin. Does anyone care, if that bitcoin was mined with 100 Ghash/sec machine, or 1,4 Exahash/sec gigafarm? Does that by itself make bitcoin more $value in the open market? It does not. Yep understandably people are struggling with the concept of fixed supply. In real life if production costs are much less than the market price of the item, you got a huge profit margin so either you or someone will increases the supply, considering constant demand, this will cause the price to go down. Works the other way around too, it's not sustainable if production costs are greater than the market price, so business will go bankrupt thus decreasing the supply, with constant demand price goes up. In bitcoin land, instead of supply we adjust difficulty. If mining is very profitable, noobs will start buying USB miners at the retail stores cause a rise in hashrate which will increase difficulty. When mining costs are greater than price, electricity bills pile up, business with higher production costs go bankrupt causing the hashrate to drop and difficulty to adjust down. |
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Complete degenerate page. Bullish! There's psychiatric help available if you so choose. Adam won't even show up here because he's embarrassed at what "the help" has to say at this point.
After BMB yours is the next post that's not ignored on this whole page, i figured trolls are having a blast trolling each other |
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4000 CNY and especially 4444 will be huge psychological resistances in the middle kingdom. 4 in chinese is "sì" (四) and it sounds a lot like "sî" (死) which means death... The chinese people don't like it and try to avoid using it. In elevators for example you might find floor 3a and 3b and floor 5 but no floor 4. Not really comparable to 13 in the west but you can get the idea. ( Most of the airplanes i have been flying with did not have a seat with that number). So there could be some trouble if we do not get past that cursed number quick... On the other hand we might just overshoot it to 5000 cny which would be really great if the western exchanges just follow. My next target is +760$.
Now you can enjoy the rest of the nlc show i guess. kthxbye
i can't imagine dragons being so superstitious. On the other hand a ton of coins on finex for sale till $600 it'll take some volume to push through |
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The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in  O.k. I will bite. What is "corner in"? Is that another way of saying manipulation? Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance? We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range. That's no kind of new phenomenon. Someone is digging their feet in? Playing both sides of the market to keep the price in a certain range? O.k. thanks for that explanation.. Hey DaRude. What's an overview of your personal bitcoin related story? Did you start buying bitcoins around the time of your registration in March 2013? What kind of view did you hold? Did your thinking evolve over the past few years? Did you own any bitcoin's during either or both of the 2013 price surges? No, started buying before that sometime in 2012. Hodled and accumulated since then through all the bubbles, gox, BTC26k bearwhale etc... Was inspired by user Loaded As far as view, kind of surprised that the price is where it's at now. I do see it as a binary outcome, it clearly hasn't reached its critical mass, but yet not gone under even with BTC3600 daily supply. Almost lost faith when adoption slowed down and we were trading in $240 range, but hodled through it and now think outlook looks as bright as ever, and gets brighter every day. Buy some BTC and forget about it for 6months, market is way too thin and easily moved to pretend you can trade the patterns Oh... thanks for providing that. It is nice to hear real individual perspectives from time to time. Of course, we do not need to agree or even share the same view, exactly, but there still may be some aspects of our history that we have in common. Regarding your last point about trading... especially, if we may experience some kind of exponential growth period or two, I believe that there are ways to structure such trading, and really investors should consider approaches beyond the buy and HODL approach. Certainly, I am not going to advise anyone or to suggest that anyone attempt to do anything that is outside of his/her comfort zone. Even though I don't agree with the extensively mathematical approach of Rptiela, nonetheless, I think that he provides a good start for conceptualizing going beyond a buy and HODL approach. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0More or less the concept is that from time to time investors in BTC need to have a plan for taking some profits off the table from time to time. In the end, probably, you are correct with a suggestion that either reinvesting or any kind of trading has too many screw up potentials, and so just removing some profits, from time to time, could be an intermediate compromise approach, for some folks. How's Rptiela doing haven't heard from him since he started pushing monero too hard and left this sub, does he still have that castle? As far as trading it's a wild wild west, you tell me how much of your strategy accounts for a major exchange going under, or Dell announcing that they'll start accepting BTC, or China banning BTC, or BTC170k sale by US masrshals, or BTC24k sale by E&Y, or 10% spread with Chinese exchanges, or China banning BTC again, or some trader just putting up a sudden BTC26k ask wall, or Adam getting drunk and leaving this sub etc etc etc fundamentals can only be traded very long term on such thin market and long term fundamentals say HODL |
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Bitcoin Block Reward Halving Countdown:
Only 35 more days!
I don't think it will matter much... If anything it well be sell the "news" .. If you can call it news at all since everybody knows about it for years. It should generate a lot of buzz and coverage, on the other hand finex's longs are at $32.5MM (although how much of that is in etherpoop is unknown?) while shorts are pretty modest. Think we should see some swings next 2-3months on speculation and then true effects should be start settle in after that. Lambie can you post that Wile E Coyote gif and add $580 to it? We need a target |
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The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in O.k. I will bite. What is "corner in"? Is that another way of saying manipulation? Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance? We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range. That's no kind of new phenomenon. Someone is digging their feet in? Playing both sides of the market to keep the price in a certain range? O.k. thanks for that explanation.. Hey DaRude. What's an overview of your personal bitcoin related story? Did you start buying bitcoins around the time of your registration in March 2013? What kind of view did you hold? Did your thinking evolve over the past few years? Did you own any bitcoin's during either or both of the 2013 price surges? No, started buying before that sometime in 2012. Hodled and accumulated since then through all the bubbles, gox, BTC26k bearwhale etc... Was inspired by user Loaded As far as view, kind of surprised that the price is where it's at now. I do see it as a binary outcome, it clearly hasn't reached its critical mass, but yet not gone under even with BTC3600 daily supply. Almost lost faith when adoption slowed down and we were trading in $240 range, but hodled through it and now think outlook looks as bright as ever, and gets brighter every day. Buy some BTC and forget about it for 6months, market is way too thin and easily moved to pretend you can trade the patterns |
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The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in O.k. I will bite. What is "corner in"? Is that another way of saying manipulation? Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance? We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range. That's no kind of new phenomenon. Someone is digging their feet in? Playing both sides of the market to keep the price in a certain range? |
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The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in |
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LOL at OKCoin chart the dump from 3829 to 3780 was only on BTC364 volume/min and then they ramp up the volume. They need to adjust their fudged volume algorithm
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Breakout denied! Only the first attempt |
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