Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bad trader]

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels   seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.

It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.

[pjviitas]

Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.

I have to agree...panicking is not the answer.

Even if BTC goes to fractions of a dollar it can bounce back to $10,000 the following year.

BTC is not controlled by any bank or government agency...it's value can be anything.

I think if people stopped treating BTC like fiat there would be a lot less panic.

[DaRude]

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.

Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.

[samsonn25]

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels   seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best

The level you expect is much higher?  $1000-$2000?

Now is $272

2 years ago is was only $12

[samsonn25]

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.

Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.

Assuming demand doesn't drop.

Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise.

[DaRude]

Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.

Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.

Assuming demand doesn't drop.

Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise.

Well yeah think it's basic supply/demand problem. Supply is pretty much guaranteed to drop. So
demand goes up=price up
demand constant,=price up
demand drops less than supply=price up
demand drops more than supply=price down.
Place your bets accordingly. I for one would love to see centralized miners go out of business and start closing farms.

[JorgeStolfi]

@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?

Sorry, what is the point?  I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing.  I just used its current value.

However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014.  I wonder what those events were. 

By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one.

[esse83]

@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false&timespan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?

Sorry, what is the point?  I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing.  I just used its current value.

However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014.  I wonder what those events were.  

By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one.

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

[JorgeStolfi]

eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, a

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before).

[DeadCoin]

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels   seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best

Bulls (bag holders, scammers, early adopters, cultists, trolls) want you to believe that.
Just look at this topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=767255.0
There should be crazy strong buying pressure below 300, but guess what, nothing happens. Bubble is still deflating. Paying almost $300 for internet funny money is still ridiculously overpriced.

[ShroomsKit]

Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.

Sure. Just too bad it won't happen anymore. You should be very worried about the low price. Or the fact that Bitcoin turned into nothing more than some pump and dump coin like the 1000 alt coins out there.

[esse83]

eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, a

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before).

The infamous 1933 address also moved two days later:

https://blockchain.info/address/1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a

[ShroomsKit]

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels   seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.

It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.

And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months?

[samson]

Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels   seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.

It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.

And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months?

Not a chance

[samsonn25]

eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, a

Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time.

edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj

That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before).

Huge

[YourMother]

A la la la long!

[pjviitas]

Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.

Sure. Just too bad it won't happen anymore. You should be very worried about the low price. Or the fact that Bitcoin turned into nothing more than some pump and dump coin like the 1000 alt coins out there.

Crypto-currency is allowed to have pump-and-dump schemes.

The biggest fools in crypto-currencies actually believe that the price has anything to do with its survival.

Cryto-currencies are not like fiat...if everyone just accepted that I think there would be a lot less pain.

[blade87]

This market feels broken down to me. Volume is low at these prices. Like someone else mentioned, one would have expected more. Where are all the buyers? I sense we are in some kind of fear phase and you know what happens next.

I thought the last high volume bounce in October, followed by sideways and even very slightly increasing movement accompanied by the super spike to $480 signaled the end of the down trend. But here we are today at $270. It's damn ugly with no clear end in sight.

[Son0fLamb]

...
Cryto-currencies are not like fiat...if everyone just accepted that I think there would be a lot less pain.

If by "survival" you mean one neckbeard with two netbooks continuing to mine Bitcoin, I agree.  If. OTOH, you mean "not making everyone holding for more than a day poor," that's sorta iffy...

[Son0fLamb]

This market feels broken down to me. Volume is low at these prices. Like someone else mentioned, one would have expected more. Where are all the buyers? I sense we are in some kind of fear phase and you know what happens next.
...

In Bitcoin world it's denial again.  Stuck in a hideous Mobius loop they can't get out of & sure as f8ck can't understand.