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2421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 08:17:33 PM
"Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing"

"is disturbing" = "I'm disturbed because I sold/shorted and expected it to go lower. Now I'm trapped."
2422  Economy / Speculation / Re: Combined log chart of gox, stamp, and btce, plus a few trendlines on: March 01, 2014, 03:46:40 PM
I found it interesting that gox bounced off of somewhere right near that purple line with an immense support, and this was also the line that served as support in 2011 and through the recovery in 2012. It is as if that is the "when the shit hits the fan or a hacker is dumping a million coins on gox, here is where support will be" line, but maybe it only happens on gox. (though btce and finex touched down there for a second as well).

Under less than apocalyptic circumstances, blue is a very strong support.

The green trendline is like an average, rallys like to follow that line for a while, and fools always think it's going to be the new support trendline.
2423  Economy / Speculation / Combined log chart of gox, stamp, and btce, plus a few trendlines on: March 01, 2014, 03:26:48 PM
In case you were having trouble getting a chart with the entire history now that gox is dead.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/T8GEpm09



Commence speculation.
2424  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 01:01:06 PM
Hmm, we have started on an upward leg for the last hour (huobi), but for how long? Hopefully 3 hours more, so we can make some progress.

We are "up" .38% in the last hour on Houbi.. not really significant methinks.
2425  Economy / Speculation / Re: Markets not reacting to loss of 100s of Millions of $ is disturbing on: March 01, 2014, 11:19:11 AM
The pricing in of gox's failure began all the way back in May and June, when investors could not withdraw fiat, funds were seized by DHS, and there was the lawsuit with coinlab. At that point, investors probably assumed that all their fiat was missing and that gox was insolvent, since they couldn't withdraw, and the pricing in began. This caused a crash from $130 to $66, until offline investors decided that was a good price and led a recovery. Bitstamp rapidly grew in August with the orderbook growing exponentially every day, and during the breakout in October it was well known that Bitstamp was where true liquidity interchange in U.S.D. was occuring and that gox was no longer relevant. Gox became a joke. "emptygox". Gox probably put a nice damper on the entire rally, and we might have gone higher without it.

Just recently, gox led another crash. The drop from $800 began when users started having issues withdrawing bitcoin from gox. At the moment when gox announced their malleability issue and it became official that users could neither withdraw fiat nor btc, all hope in gox became lost. Gox was now truly insolvent, as you could not withdraw ANY funds. This became especially apparent once every other exchange had fixed their malleability issue, in one day, EXCEPT gox, who was at two weeks and counting.  The death spiral of prices on gox all the way to $88 was continually confirming everyone's suspicions - that kind of price action would not be happening unless something was seriously wrong. Nobody would sell their bitcoins at 15% of the real value of a bitcoin unless they were SURE gox was insolvent. So this action led a crash in prices all the way from $800 to $530 and below. When the website went down, prices crash all the way down to $400. That's a 50% loss from $800, on top of all the previous crashes gox had driven.

Prior to gox's recent bankruptcy announcement, it was about 90% certain to anyone with a brain that all of gox's customer funds had been lost, and this had already been getting priced in to the bitcoin price for nearly a year.  The bankruptcy announcement simply turned a 90% certainty into a 100% certainty. Big deal... Maybe it will cause a little dip, but not a huge crash like everyone is calling for - that already happened, multiple times.
2426  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 01, 2014, 05:23:00 AM
1030XBT bought yesterday
SecondMarket is becoming notorious now for completely missing lows and then buying during some extremely overbought condition afterwards.

Maybe they are permabulls..
Why would even a permabull buy at 600, AFTER 400? If they are so bullish that they are looking for any buying opportunity, then they should have taken 400 which occurred BEFORE 600 (and would get them more coins also), or even 550 the day before. Instead they waited until after all that until the price was 600. Being a permabull doesn't mean you have to go out of your way to buy more expensive coins. That's not the behavior of a bull; that's the behavior of someone who panicking watching charts.
2427  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fed Chair admits the Federal Reserver can't Ban/Regulate Bitcoin on: March 01, 2014, 02:10:55 AM
The Fed?  Ok. What about congress?
2428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 02:08:53 AM
woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me
Well we've already heard the worst about gox, so what kind of event would this insider be trading on?
2429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here comes dat fear on: March 01, 2014, 02:07:52 AM
Isn't it so much more fun when you're in Fiat ready to make a move?
Less stress too!

To each their own. I suppose.

Personally, I find waiting with fiat to be far more stressful than sitting secure with my coins safely in a paper wallet.

Any time I have either BTC or $ at an exchange I feel uncomfortable. Recent events at Gox remind me why.

Lock in some profits into BTC cold storage and $$ off exchange, and it feels much better. What I would find stressful is living through two bubbles without having taken significant $$ profits off the table.
I always withdraw 20% of my funds (in usd) off of exchanges every 3 months. But now I am thinking of withdrawing more due to the uncertainty around exchanges.
2430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holders, Investors, Speculators! What's your USD average per coin? on: March 01, 2014, 12:56:32 AM
I have bought (and sold) bitcoin hundreds of times. Which time are you referring to?

Quote
on average
It's still a difficult question because I'm not holding an 'average' of different buys - I am daytrading. I guess I could say that my cost basis based on my original investment is now $2. My first purchase was at $100.
2431  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here comes dat fear on: March 01, 2014, 12:53:14 AM
Isn't it so much more fun when you're in Fiat ready to make a move?
Less stress too! I'm glad some of you finally saw the light Wink
I'm in mostly fiat ready to make a move but I might make that move in the 400-530 area. then if the 2011 scenario actually plays out, I'll be having a bad time.
2432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holders, Investors, Speculators! What's your USD average per coin? on: March 01, 2014, 12:44:08 AM
I have bought (and sold) bitcoin hundreds of times. Which time are you referring to?
2433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here comes dat fear on: March 01, 2014, 12:40:05 AM
I told you this correction wasn't going to be easy and there would be some news event and lots of fear and fud.

"This is going to be like 2011"
"Were assuming the chart will follow 2012 or 2013 but it might be like 2011"
"There is an outlier in bitcoin's history we cannot ignore"
"A hacker might have 850,000 coins and put unnatural forces on the market"
"There was a hacker in 2011 too"
"What if gox was actually the heart of bitcoin whether you like it or not"
"It looks like were on our way to retest 400, or go lower"
"What if the 1 week EMAs cross down"
"The price has actually gone below the trendline before. We cant rely on the trendline for support"
"It looks like the fad of bitcoin is over. There will never be another rally. Things cant possibly get any better, only worse"

Will you succomb to da fear?

TERA, some of these quotes seem very similar to what I have seen you say. Are you just quoting yourself?

My answer to all these questions would be "Yes. Possibly."

But I would also say that we have been bearish in here for a while and that collapse to $400 felt an awful lot like the reverse of the first runup to 1200.  Then there was a fast an furious 2nd runup. Remember that? Then, the wheels started to come off.

We are diving back down again.

But isn't all this fear exactly what has to happen to end a bear market?

And why is it, you never seem to acknowledge that fact?

I have not said any of these things since June 2013 when I was relatively new to bitcoin and I myself succombed to the fear. I have not said them since. I do acknowledge the 'fact' you speak of.
2434  Economy / Speculation / Here comes dat fear on: March 01, 2014, 12:33:25 AM
I told you this correction wasn't going to be easy and there would be some news event and lots of fear and fud.

"This is going to be like 2011"
"Were assuming the chart will follow 2012 or 2013 but it might be like 2011"
"There is an outlier in bitcoin's history we cannot ignore"
"A hacker might have 850,000 coins and put unnatural forces on the market"
"There was a hacker in 2011 too"
"What if gox was actually the heart of bitcoin whether you like it or not"
"It looks like were on our way to retest 400, or go lower"
"What if the 1 week EMAs cross down"
"The price has actually gone below the trendline before. We cant rely on the trendline for support"
"It looks like the fad of bitcoin is over. There will never be another rally. Things cant possibly get any better, only worse"

Will you succomb to da fear?
2435  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 01, 2014, 12:28:22 AM
risto still feeling good about your call?

i see a problem with your trend line strategy. while i follow a support trend line, you follow an averaging trend line. the averaging trend line actually changes in slope and position as time goes on. also prices have actually gone BELOW the trend line for extended periods of time, and i think you may be ignoring that opportunity.
2436  Economy / Speculation / Re: not lost "just temporarily unavailable" now please figure this out..... on: March 01, 2014, 12:06:26 AM
i think he is saying that your imaginary goxcoins still exist and you might be able to withdraw them in the future if they ever get backed with real btc via income/acquisition
2437  Economy / Speculation / Re: A cracker owning 850,000btc. How bad is that? on: March 01, 2014, 12:03:42 AM
How many different people stole the coins?

When were they stolen?

there's been a known exploit in youtube for years

they might already be dumped
2438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2014, 02:23:41 PM
Where is "CCMF" now??
2439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2014, 01:55:23 PM
At the end of the video, Mark tells you to HODL.  Grin
2440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Did TA indicate the spike from $100 to $1000? on: February 28, 2014, 01:43:55 PM


Here you go.
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