Ok adam I will hold you to this and we'll make a deal where in 64 business days, you purchase bitcoins from me for the cheap price of $1700.

How do you know exactly what is causing each price movement? The market is collection of buyers and sellers. Are you inside everyone's head?

Oh no god forbid I hold that evil fiat; my sovereign backed currency which pays my bills, my taxes, most of my purchases, etc. The 3% inflation per year is going to kill me.

Do you not know how to read a chart and analyze a trend? When price is close to the downtrend, the market is just looking for any excuse to go down. This is going to persist until there is a significant increase in volume to terminate the trend and there is a powerful spike above the line.

After you see a very obvious reversal pattern on the weekly chart  -  not something wishy washy and speculative.

Zoom out your chart to W1, 3D, or 1D scale, and maybe you'll see why a drop is due. I think someone forgot to release the 'news' that was supposed to go with the drop but it's happening anyway because of the trend.

You guys are silly to think that the effect of a dead market is going to be greater than the effect of a live market with a consistent cash flow of new fiat in.

The amount of ignorance about finance and markets here is astonishing. I'm glad you guys don't actually manage anything important.

Bitstamp has been above btce for months now.

I like to think of the sharp and persisted drops as a feature of the downtrend and not neccessarily a feature of the news. Notice that if a bad news occurs at a tipping point right on a the downtrend line, it will cause a sharp and persisted drop. But if the news occurs somewhere else where a drop is not supposed to occur yet, it will have a much lesser effect or no effect, or there will be an immediate rebound. The market just waits for excuses to do things.

As for news, the next wave of Chinese news will be when banks identify and close the specific accounts used by exchanges and not just posting a notice. After that, there will be news about how police get involved. Finally, there will be the exchanges themselves closing.

Then there is news about topics completely besides china, such as goxcoins, hackercoins, and the government's 600,000 coins.

Nobody is sitting there making all these decisions. It's a program running an algorithm. Apparently the algorithm is profitable because the owners keep it running. Relax...

For the past year, prices have had nothing to do with adoption and everything to do with exchange trading, volume, and speculators. So if the price appears to you to not be following adoption, that is why.

I don't like that chart tool on tradingview because it always wants to autodraw its own way and won't let me adjust with the slope that I want.

This is nothing like July. In July, we had clearly broken out of any identifiable downtrend on the chart. Right now, we are still firmly underneath a downtrend and only speculating that we might break out.  We have had all kinds of positive news, MIT, bloomberg, OKcoin overseas, etc. Only to slowly rise by $35 over the span of an entire week, just to inch our way somewhere near the downtrend line, where we'll probably be clobbered by the next piece of news about China or what the government or hackers are doing with hundreds of thousands of coins. Then we'll violently surge back down, erase all of this progress, and go even lower.

In your analysis of sentiment, that is the way you feel, but how do you know that is the way that everybody feels? It's certainly not the way I feel. Does everyone reveal how they feel openly? What about the people who don't even use the forums? Also, can you analyze and predict a market entirely based on sentiment levels? And can you say that because something was a certain way last year and it is that way this year that the same thing from last year should happen this year? I think things are a lot more complicated than this, and that there are a lot of large forces involved.

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

Doomsday confirmed. Here is proof with picture.

I know there was someone saying "Yeah it might crash but it's going to crash from four digits to three digits".

The same thing happened a week ago before the caixin news. It's a trap. The problem is we can't use the 3D MACD when we are so close to the 1W EMAs because the 1W EMAs are crossed down. We need to use the 1W MACD. 1W is now the "long term MACD".

This time last year the price was around $130 and later fell to $66 so it would have been wise to enter into a short term short trade.

DOOMsday

I don't understand why a bull would want to make a bet when they can just hold bitcoins securely.  A bear would be more likely to want to make a bet because to short the market he has to trust a broker the whole time.