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2421  Economy / Economics / Re: How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 08, 2014, 11:49:56 AM
I don't think you understand what market cap is

It is aggregate value to aggregate investment

$8 billion is not the total paid for every bitcoin in existence. Ask the people who bought at $1. This is what I'm interested in.
2422  Economy / Economics / Re: How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 08, 2014, 09:46:21 AM
We're looking at an orders-of-magnitude difference, then. Rather than the train passenger theory of "if ten times as many people adopt bitcoins the price will go up ten times."

Empirically the price regresses to n^2.26+k where n is the number of active addresses.  n^2 would be adequately explained by Metcalfe's Law.  Explain the sqrt(sqrt(n)) factor and you may win a Rijksbank prize in honor of Alfred Nobel.

Price tends to fundamental value over time because otherwise you can arbitrage.

If ten times as many people adopt bitcoin, the price, to a first order approximation, increases by a factor of 180, ceteris paribus.



Good answer, this is what I was looking for. Thank you.
2423  Economy / Economics / Re: How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 07, 2014, 06:27:55 PM
Imagine the volume is zero, nobody wants to buy and sell at the same given price. So I sell you one bitcoin for 10 000$. How high would the market cap be? Think of the 4000 new coins everyday. So the market cap grows by 2.4mio. So if no miner sells, no money is needed to raise the market cap.

-> The market cap has absolutely nothing to do with the total dollars for which people bought bitcoins. And anyway, when I buy a bitcoin from you fpr 620$, how much dollars are flowing into bitcoin? None! We just make a trade...

But what price did you buy it at? Am I paying more than that? If so, money goes into the system.
2424  Economy / Economics / Re: How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 07, 2014, 05:41:29 PM
This isn't exactly what you're after (apart from anything else it includes the alt coins) but might be useful? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=504367.msg5556119#msg5556119

Thanks, that's a useful starting point. We're looking at an orders-of-magnitude difference, then. Rather than the train passenger theory of "if ten times as many people adopt bitcoins the price will go up ten times."
2425  Economy / Economics / Re: How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 07, 2014, 05:01:03 PM
I disagree. Someone buys and the price rises. Sell and it drops. Buy and sell and it stays the same. Marlet cap of $8 bn does not mean $8 bn investment.
I bet it has something to do with calculus.
2426  Economy / Economics / How much investment is ACTUALLY represented by the bitcoin "market cap"? on: March 07, 2014, 02:40:00 PM
Simple question, possibly a complicated answer. One for the economists?
Bitcoin's "market cap" is currently around $8 billion = $640/btc x 12.5 million btc in existence.
However, this does NOT mean that $8 billion has been poured into bitcoin. Almost all were purchased at lower prices (or mined). Many coins were bought at a very low price. As more were bought, the price rose, to where it is now. Basic supply and demand.
My question is: roughly what is the total amount of money that was spent in pushing the price up to where it is now? I imagine there's some sort of exponential graph or a standard model that illustrates this, but I've no idea what it would be.
I think this is relevant because it gives an indication of how much the price would rise given further investment, or how much it would fall when people sold.
That would give a much better metric of long-term prospects than I've seen just about anywhere else. It might allow us to say, If xx corporate investor came on board with $yy million, where would the price go?
Or we could just keep talking about the magic train that's going to take us to the moon...
2427  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: UK based - What banks are companies using to accept fiat currency for Bitcoin? on: March 07, 2014, 02:30:28 PM
I understand where you are coming from.


My belief was that I want to provide relaible services where customers will get a good deal, the transactions will be safe for both the business and customers and that's why a bank behind us, will help.


I am in contact with bitcoin-friendly banks.

I am based in the UK looking at Bank of Montréal, Fidor Bank in Germany and others.

I have also contacted senior business organisations in the UK. For me, if there are legitimate methods as alternatives, I am happy to explore them.

So long as I can access and complete online banking with a bank, I will be happy.

You may have more than one problem here. One is that UK banks hate bitcoin. You need to find one that won't withdraw its services without notice. bit121 could go the way of its predecessors now. That's just too much uncertainty: they can kill your business at a stroke.
Another issue is that you have to get people to use the bank you choose, depending on the nature of your business. Bitstamp uses a Slovenian bank, but the UK banks (which your customers will presumably use?) get charged for making SEPA transfers, and they get charged a terrible exchange rate. Buy one bitcoin on Bitstamp from the UK and you could effectively pay 6-7% fees as a result. No one in the UK is going to use that service where small amounts of money are involved.
I've looked into this, a little, because I had an idea for a simple site that would allow people to buy and sell coins. Not exactly an exchange, but not like the sites currently doing that in the UK either. Basically something that is appropriate to where the UK is at in terms of bitcoin adoption. (Sadly, having come up with what I think is a viable idea, I don't have the programming skills to make it happen.) Of course you have to use the banks in some form, but there are various ways of doing that, some safer than others.
Depending on what you need them for, you may also run into issues of APIs etc, which they may or may not have/make available to you.
Feel free to PM me if there are more details you don't want to give on a public thread. I'm no expert but I may have one or two ideas if they would be useful.
2428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead? on: March 07, 2014, 11:02:48 AM
I don't think the bear market is over. Why would somebody who didn't invest a week ago, or a month ago (before Gox died), invest now? Nothing has really changed.

I can't see us making any significant upward movement until we get big news, like the SecondMarket exchange launching.

That's what I figure. Fundamentals (i.e. the extent of bitcoin adoption and use by business) is going to drive the price much more from now on. Speculative money less so after Gox. Not a bad thing: bitcoin needed the reality check to become more respectable.
2429  Economy / Speculation / Re: Was Today A Sign That The Bear Market Is Dead? on: March 07, 2014, 10:47:58 AM
It's academic anyway, since today is looking Quite Bearish. Sorry to be the bear of bad news.
2430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 07, 2014, 10:39:39 AM
Yesterday, BTT experienced the highest one-day registrations. The news about the alleged Satoshi probably sparked people's curiosity about Bitcoin. Some curious souls have just arrived. Wink



Can't be a bad thing.
Doesn't look like the story came to anything, though the real Satoshi apparently surfacing is what's really intriguing here.
And despite the maxim, the fake Satoshi does seem to have got a free lunch out of it.
2431  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: UK based - What banks are companies using to accept fiat currency for Bitcoin? on: March 07, 2014, 09:35:47 AM
Thanks for that - I will look at your suggestion. I am very tempted to post the question on several business-related forums.


All I'm trying to do is use a business bank account to conduct honest and transparent business where we can accept a multitude of fiat currency to buy cryptocurrency.

I just feels so frustrating, even when HMRC are stating that Bitcoin etc won't be subject to money-laundering regulations.

There has to be a banking institution we can use, surely!

Thanks for your reply.

You'd think so. But the banks hate bitcoin. Just about every exchange that has been opened here has been hamstrung when banks withdraw facilities. bit121 was the latest - happened in the last couple of weeks. No surprise that Stamp use a Slovenian bank.
Result: are you sold on using a bank at all, or are there alternatives?
2432  Economy / Speculation / Re: What would happen if Satoshi dumped his coins? on: March 06, 2014, 10:10:10 PM
This story has really been picked up in the last couple of hours. Nothing much new, just recycled, even by 'reputable' (yeah, I know what an oxymoron is) news outlets. Sucks for Mr D. Nakamoto. If it's not him I hope that journalist gets slapped with a lawsuit.
Supply/demand. Dump anything on the market and the price goes down. Dump a lot and it drops a lot. Dump a very lot and maybe there's enough to depress the price for quite a while.
No reason why Satoshi would do this, or why any major bitcoin holder would do this. You might as well ask what would happen if xx pension fund dumped all their stock of yy company.
2433  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 08:20:49 PM
Satoshi has c. 1m coins. He may or may not spend any or all of them. I imagine Satoshi himself is the only person properly qualified to know whether he ever will. In my mind, becoming the potential target of robbery, extortion, crank calls, begging letters, kidnapping and unwanted press intrusion makes him more likely to spend them than before.

But we do have a final, formidable weapon against Satoshi's upcoming coin dump... Bitstamp's KYC procedures!  Cheesy

(unless they decide to bend the rules for once. It is Satoshi after all.)

If the cat's out of the bag, that's the least of his worries.
Got to wonder, though, if he's lost the key (or chucked it away, way back when). I always wondered what Satoshi was planning to do with his ~$1 billion haul of coins, and why he hadn't touched them - even to move them to another address - for so long.
2434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 07:23:42 PM
I predict the price will 5/600 for a few week, then price will be up to 7/800.


Don't think Satoshi's identity will affect the price too much short term or long term.

why should his identity have any affect on the price at all?  Roll Eyes

Well why should it?

Identity gives information about motivation.
Ultimately, it's just supply and demand. If people thing Satoshi is likely to sell his half-billion-dollar haul of coins, that's not good. If they think he's lost the keys, that is (though not great for him).
If they decide he's working for The Man, that's just rude.

But why would you think that, he's had the coins all this time, doesn't seem likely that he dump them and destroy his creation.

As so many people on these forums do not appreciate, "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance".
I've never died yet. Why would someone think I'm likely to die in the future?
Satoshi has c. 1m coins. He may or may not spend any or all of them. I imagine Satoshi himself is the only person properly qualified to know whether he ever will. In my mind, becoming the potential target of robbery, extortion, crank calls, begging letters, kidnapping and unwanted press intrusion makes him more likely to spend them than before.
And he doesn't seem to care much about his creation, if it even is him.
2435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 05:33:48 PM
I predict the price will 5/600 for a few week, then price will be up to 7/800.


Don't think Satoshi's identity will affect the price too much short term or long term.

why should his identity have any affect on the price at all?  Roll Eyes

Well why should it?

Identity gives information about motivation.
Ultimately, it's just supply and demand. If people thing Satoshi is likely to sell his half-billion-dollar haul of coins, that's not good. If they think he's lost the keys, that is (though not great for him).
If they decide he's working for The Man, that's just rude.
2436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 04:45:28 PM
Not sure if it will have much of an impact, but the Chinese might not like this story (Japanese guy with possible NSA/CIA connections).

Chinese and Russian government knew this already. Hence why they brought the boot down on Bitcoin. They aren't stupid. They know how it threatens their economies.

Probably most Chinese aren't trading Bitcoin anymore. As zhangwhei stated in one of his excellent posts. Nobody is talking about Bitcoin anymore in China. It is stigmatised. Probably the real Chinese volume is indeed on BTC China and Huobi et al are as Bobby Lee stated, largely fake exchanges, operated for appearances sakes whilst insides off-load BTC they picked up cheap onto USD markets.

i dont believe it. imo he isnt japanese and doesnt live in the us. this story makes no sense at all.....

This story makes no sense at all.........to your flawed paradigm?

there is no evidence in this article. they just write a wall of text and in the end all they have is, that this guy shares the same name.

nevertheless, more people will read about bitcoin, so thats good.




In all fairness, there was a good amount of circumstantial evidence. And I really appreciated the incidental touches, like him enjoying toy trains. They make it far less likely it's all fake.
What I really love, though, is that it wasn't some NSA project or a secretive group of anarcho-libertarians. The motivation was that some guy got annoyed because it cost too much to buy toy train spares from England.

There is absolutely no proof whatsoever regarding his motivations for starting Bitcoin and both possibilities suggested in the article - a) his home got foreclosed and b) he was annoyed at having to make international transfers to England for this trains - do not convince me one bit. You don't just dedicate several years of your life to this kind of project with that kind of 'motivation'.

Well, yes. Clearly, one does not simply create a groundbreaking global, decentralised, secure payment protocol, entirely outside of the control of banks and governments, simply because you are upset that Hornby spares are costing you too much.
I feel the need for a meme.
2437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 04:36:52 PM
Not sure if it will have much of an impact, but the Chinese might not like this story (Japanese guy with possible NSA/CIA connections).

Chinese and Russian government knew this already. Hence why they brought the boot down on Bitcoin. They aren't stupid. They know how it threatens their economies.

Probably most Chinese aren't trading Bitcoin anymore. As zhangwhei stated in one of his excellent posts. Nobody is talking about Bitcoin anymore in China. It is stigmatised. Probably the real Chinese volume is indeed on BTC China and Huobi et al are as Bobby Lee stated, largely fake exchanges, operated for appearances sakes whilst insides off-load BTC they picked up cheap onto USD markets.

i dont believe it. imo he isnt japanese and doesnt live in the us. this story makes no sense at all.....

This story makes no sense at all.........to your flawed paradigm?

there is no evidence in this article. they just write a wall of text and in the end all they have is, that this guy shares the same name.

nevertheless, more people will read about bitcoin, so thats good.




In all fairness, there was a good amount of circumstantial evidence. And I really appreciated the incidental touches, like him enjoying toy trains. They make it far less likely it's all fake.
What I really love, though, is that it wasn't some NSA project or a secretive group of anarcho-libertarians. The motivation was that some guy got annoyed because it cost too much to buy toy train spares from England.
2438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 04:30:19 PM
I'm going to guess it has little effect. It doesn't change anything right?  Huh

It changes everything.  Now bitcoin lacks that crucial cryptocoin property of having an unknown anonymous creator who invented it under his own real name.  See?  Can't you see now why everyone is selling?
Does this make it another stupid alt coin?  Cry



Another stupid altcoin? So bitcoin is now an altcoin derived from itself?
2439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 04:26:15 PM
can anyone link the article

Or try Googling it...
2440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction of price due to Satoshi's reveal? on: March 06, 2014, 04:21:23 PM
Well I for one am furious that the shadowy creator of bitcoin, known only by the cryptic identity Satoshi Nakamoto - which was CLEARLY a pseudonym since that's the only thing about him people agree on - actually turned out to be called Satoshi Nakamoto in real life.

This clearly means the protocol is insecure and even if it wasn't I'm still selling all my coins in protest.
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