Article has been posted in the main forum:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=885254.0

It is fake

Wall Street Journal:

"Tim Draper: I am pretty impressed that my bids that were 15% above the current market weren´t successful. However i am going to market buy those 50k on BTC-E, like NOW!"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tim-draper-dissapointed-that-he-lost-the-second-auction-1417471759

(1) is zero risk for a winner clearly, and is risk free, if intention was to arb and not hold (I am assuming you mean selling the 'about to be received' coins, not buying more ... that makes no sense)
Not seeing how (2) works for a low-ball loser. Might work for a high bid loser who thinks market will adjust to the (unknown to him) winning price or is desperate to buy. Depends on risk appetite.
But I agree with your conclusion that some participants will have possible valuable information on Friday that will likely be reflected in the price.

EDIT: Actually, unless you win them all, there is very little to discern as you will not know the range of winning bids, so unless you only intended to arb and got a few low enough to do so, or bid very high for a few lots and lost and want coins at a price they have been available for for some time (duh), anything else is pretty much guesswork, much as all of this is

i have enough of waiting, i'm gonna dump my coins in exactly 1 hour on stamp. Bitcoin is history for me.

have a safe trip home and tell your friends we said "hi"

bye

Do you have the address to watch ?

Wtf is going on with These dumps?

pre auction dumps??

Guess, just for guessing:

To have a positive effect, this auction would have to repeat the outcome of the previous one: a single winner, who can convince the market that he bought for a "good price" and does not intend to dump the coins.

However, that seems a bit unlikely, because:

* There are almost twice as many coins being auctioned this time, and twice as many coming in a few months.

* There seems to be much less excitement this time about those coins. (Last time, some even argued that those coins would have extra value as collectibles -- "the" coins from "the" Silk Road -- and/or for having been blessed by the US government. I have seen no such claims this time.)

* Therefore, it is more likely that, this time, there will be several winners.

* There is even a small chance that some lots will be unsold. (AFAIK, the USMS can ignore bids for any reason, including them being too low.)

* If there are several winners, some of them may remain unknown.

* If there are several winners, or unknown winners, or unsold lots, the market will probably assume that the coins were bought below market -- suggesting that the big players are bearish;

* If the market thinks that some of the coins were bought below market, it will fear that they be dumped for profit.

Moreover, the price increase after the previous outcome was announced only reversed the drop that occurred when the auction was announced.  There was no such drop this time, so why should there be a recovery?

Thus, if I had to guess, I would guess "no effect, or a drop".

   Coinapult ?

Whether I know what i am doing or NOT, I have outlined a plan and I have invested according to the plan and then I made various adjustments along the way and I continue to have a plan.  I have also communicated various aspects of my plan as I had been investing, sometimes looking for feedback in order to figure out my strategy.  In the end, I own my own plan and I take full responsibility over it.  In various ways things have gone better than expected, and yet with 20/20 hindsight, I can see areas in which I could have done better.. but I am NOT kicking myself over that because NONE of us really know where the market is going, even though some of the whale manipulators have better abilities to attempt to control the direction of the market... at least for short periods of time.

Otherwise, you are a dweeb for attempting to judge me and to denigrate my investment strategy or my intelligence when you really do NOT know my situation in detail.  You do not know my finances, my goals, my timeline and a large variety of other factors, but still you strive to make after the fact judgements and denigrations..  a true sign of someone or a bot that has a few screws loose.  sorry about that for you.       

i'm here to bother you, can i?

it's about reality that BTC is dead, 5 years it was working just fine, i agree, but last year is showing that there is no more developement going on, no more new people addopting it, so fuck it, it's lost in history, believe it or not.

Whether they know about them or nor still does not give them access to the coins.

Anyone posted this yet?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/bitcoin-auction-winner-draper-to-bid-again-in-december.html

Everyone knows not to try low ball bids this time  

This user is currently ignored.

Glad I bought in with what I had left at stamp. Too bad this rally didnt wait until my fresh fiat arrives. Already maxed my Circle account out lol.

I am now no longer including the old crappy data that stamp is putting out. When they start putting out real data, it will be included.

The prices at the top are wrong on that one (they were still being taken from the stale data) but they will be correct in the next one.