I'm working with my lawyers now and they told me we have chances to win. This will be collective lawsuit.
If anyone else is affected by Cyprus deposits confiscation, please send me pm.
Excellent news. I imagine the local business association will have loads of affected members. |
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Bitcoincharts shows:
Difficulty 6695826
Estimated 7446578 in 821 blks
Perhaps due to BFL ASICs finally starting up as well now...
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Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?
Yes This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin. Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded. In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak. Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century. Guys. This graphic best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all).  |
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At its core the problem is that someone has to control the quantity of issued currency and credit in the economy via some means; since both currency and credit are fungible you must control both or you may as well control neither. Thats proof that Denninger doesnt understand bitcoin. In a bitcoin monetary system, money and credit are not fungible. Bitcoins cannot be typed into someones account. Bitcoins are easily distinguishable from credit. A merchant can refuse to accept payment in MtGox credits and demand actual bitcoins instead. Just like on the gold standard, banknotes were distinguishable from gold. A merchant could refuse to accept payment in banknotes, and demand actual gold or silver. Absolutely. Karl has fired from the hip without thinking more deeply. When the Bitcoin fx rate hits $1,000 then he will realize the shot went into his own foot. why $1000? he didn't get gold when it hit there. Because it can be rationalized that gold has done nothing for 30 years in inflation adjusted terms:  This puzzled me for a long time, despite fiat being abused to death, gold has simply been clawing back to a prior peak. When I learned about Bitcoin the muddy waters cleared. In a modern economy remote transactions account for 99% by value. So electronic currency is essential and gold has severe limitations as currency. I choose $1000 because, by then, people with Karl's view will be trampled in the stampede to embrace a "new normal". |
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At its core the problem is that someone has to control the quantity of issued currency and credit in the economy via some means; since both currency and credit are fungible you must control both or you may as well control neither. Thats proof that Denninger doesnt understand bitcoin. In a bitcoin monetary system, money and credit are not fungible. Bitcoins cannot be typed into someones account. Bitcoins are easily distinguishable from credit. A merchant can refuse to accept payment in MtGox credits and demand actual bitcoins instead. Just like on the gold standard, banknotes were distinguishable from gold. A merchant could refuse to accept payment in banknotes, and demand actual gold or silver. Absolutely. Karl has fired from the hip without thinking more deeply. When the Bitcoin fx rate hits $1,000 then he will realize the shot went into his own foot. |
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Now since they obviously record individual IPs, why can't sourceforge publish stats of them? Then we can have a general idea of the number of bitcoin users in the world.
That info might be available to the Bitcoin admin team on sourceforge. But a lot of users won't run a full client, they will just have a web wallet and manage their coins from it. Blockchain has about 150k wallet users. |
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The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/mapOh, boy, you have to take the tiny size of this island nation(both in terms of territory and population) into account, with that in mind I would say the interest is disproportionately high, judging from this indicator only. And this makes the case that nobody should take my hypotheses too seriously because it didn't even cross my mind to take this into consideration! Regarding the additional downloads from Cyprus isn't it just as likely to have arisen out of the news claims of Cypriots putting their savings into Bitcoin rather than the other way round? Cyprus population (south) about 850,000, so indeed, they have the highest number of downloads of the bitcoin client per capita. That is significant! Slovenia (pop 2m) has the same number of downloads, also high per capita. And this country is next up on the euro hangman's gallows. |
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The stats on sourceforge show Cyprus down near 50th with a negligible percentage of downloads. Not what you would expect if there was serious amount of investment going on. However, the last weekly count for Cyprus, 149 downloads, is greater than 50% of the monthly count, so there is *some* increase in interest recently. http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/Bitcoin/stats/map |
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I'd be surprised to see anything explosive to the upside before tuesday (no matter what chinese or any other market does).. actually wednesday more likely. But when the rocket fires that next stage... it'll shake the world who will watch in disbelief.
It does seem to be putting in a floor again. Is $94 the new $47... |
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I too have read a good proportion of Karl's posts for years. He is normally expert and right about most things.
There is a lesson in humility here: being right most of the time is not the same as all of the time. Karl is evaluating Bitcoin incorrectly. He has a strong legal background and this is confusing his mind so he is not considering how Bitcoin can be a force for making smaller, efficient governments.
He is not even bothering to learn how 3rd-party systems can work with the blockchain. He is not properly considering Bitcoin's triple benefit as a currency and payment system with user anonymity.
He has written a long article, which is probably longer than what he has read on it.
Eventually he will settle down and realize that Bitcoin is the answer to many of the perversions of fiat that he has railed about for years.
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Wow... that is one of the worst bitcoin article I've seen. They portrait bitcoin as being invented by [evil] "hackers" and currently being developed in some sort of filthy ghetto by some hipster, no doubt to show what horrible "lower class" people are behind it to buy drugs and illegal stuff with your money, then finish with a quote from some uneducated bear to spread fear. The author starts off thinking Bitcoin is a bizarre payment system and only learns as he is writing it that it is a currency first and foremost. Then he boasts about being an expert programmer. Read it if you can stomach it... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html |
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Good points acoindr, but I am not clear on the last paragraphs. (I think you mean 100KB too).
Demand is indeed predictable based upon the last few thousand blocks. Because Bitcoin is a global currency transaction volumes, over a time period of a week or two, should ebb and flow steadily like the sea level.
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Great article written from the heart. I like his projected valuations too  |
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Cold storage coins into the hot furnace of the marketplace...Generally speaking, it is "good" for Bitcoin if the current issuance, now 10.9 million, is spread across many users and investors. It can be considered "bad" if a large percentage of bitcoins remain locked up by the earliest adopters. This is not a black-and-white situation as saving/investing/hoarding is good for a currency, but so is widespread spending and usage. Too many coins locked up means an artificially high exchange rate prevails, which can be tanked at any time by a sudden disinvestment resulting in instability, disruption of product pricing, and bad press. So, the question for which I invite comment, and hopefully quantitative analysis: "Is the 2013 peak (or plateau) bringing many coins out of cold storage which have been untouched for two years, and further, are better charts possible showing granularity in variously aged coins being transacted." Days Destroyed (DD)Blockchain transactional analysis for movement of aged coins is done by examining each input address: Days Destroyed = Num Coins * Age In Days So a bitcoin spent after 100 days in a wallet has the same DD as 100 BTC spent after 1 day in a wallet. In 2011 the rise to the temporary peak at $31 clearly brought a lot of early cold storage coins into general circulation, as evidenced in the all-time chart of Bitcoin days destroyed filtered by minimum of one year: http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false×pan=all&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=The situation in 2013 shows a similar rise, but smaller, although for a more sustained period: http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=Scaled Days Destroyed (SDD) The assumption here is that it is an improvement by using a power factor on Bitcoin days destroyed giving much greater weight to the movement of aged coins instead of the linear relationship inherent in DD. Scaled Days Destroyed = Num Coins * (Age In Days) Power FactorThe most useful power factor for this analysis could be somewhere between 1 and 2. Assuming it is 2, a single bitcoin spent after 10 days in a wallet would have 100 times the SDD as one bitcoin spent after one day in a wallet, or 100-fold increase in weighting per 10-fold increase in age. What effect does this have on daily or weekly charts? Coins moved after a few years would be very significant. Could a SDD violin chart (similar to the one linked below) be the ultimate quick visual reference for the movement of aged coins? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101902.msg1633247#msg1633247What do you think?
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Zeroday, surely there is a pending class action lawsuit which you could join, to get funds unblocked, for a Cypriot District Court? Cyprus did not change its law when agreeing the EU terms, so the law courts should take seriously a complaint asserting rights protected by A1P1. The Government Office letter supports the complaint that illegal activity has taken place. |
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retracted
glad to know this was not a real error... |
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It's amazing.
After that sell-off its looking at punching $95 again...
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