simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100.
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m) no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger. this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two. In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain. its a 2 way peg, so both BTC and scBTC can move freely back and forth. initially, scBTC are priced lower at $100 with BTC at $325. bots sell BTC for fiat, circle around and buys scBTC on the exchange, push scBTC back thru the peg to BTC, rinse and repeat. look, we know that the SC is LESS SECURE. that means any scBTC riding on that less secure ledger is worth less. that has to be priced in and will feedback to BTC via the arb bots. I think kupsi has nailed it.. I share your concerns with regard to a side chain potentially damaging bitcoin if there is a floating peg between the two. |
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fonzie isnt fonsie, though?  |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100.
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270 or whatever the equilibrium is btwn BTC and scBTC, which we know is lower? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
Btc price would go up first, because lower monetary base in the proven old bitcoin block chain (13m -> 10m) no, the BTC have just been transformed to lower value units, scBTC, b/c they have been moved to a less secure, unproven ledger. this will drag down the BTC price to an equilibrium price btwn the two. In order for the arb to work, the coins have to move back to the bitcoin blockchain. |
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simple theory question for all SC proponents. so simple in fact what am i missing?
we have 13M BTC @ around $325. SC comes along and lets say 3M BTC --> scBTC (just for illustration). we know that the price of scBTC has to be lower given MM, newness, being unproven, risk of failure, etc. let's say price starts off @ $100. $325
why don't arb bots circle back around and drive BTC price down to say $250-270? multiply this by 1000 SC's.
FTFY it can't start off @ $325 b/c the SC IS less secure and the risk of being on an entirely different ledger with less security means the instantaneous initial price has to be lower. yes, with time the 2 prices will equilibrate, but at a lower price.But the 'two way peg' in the example you describe won't happen in reality cypherdoc. Why the price arb at all? Anyone buying SCBTC for less than BTC on an open exchange can simply send them back to the main chain and sell bitcoin and profit. Then buy more SCBTC, transfer them back to the main chain and sell them. Repeat ad infinitum. If the market prices SCBTC lower than btc then all SCBTC not in use for an actual purpose will migrate back to the main chain. It doesn't follow there will be a price change in bitcoin as a result, in my mind at least.OK i can see that selling bitcoin could depress the price. But that process would result in the coins migrating back to the main chain so I don't think it makes much sense as an argument against sidechains. |
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... I'm being fisted by a bunch of geeky early adopters of a disruptive technology...I guess  May have been the case before early 2013. Now bigger, smarter, girthier kids are providing the surprise buttsecs. There is way more money in it for them to rally the price higher yet again than crashing the market into the floor. Hundreds of millions of VC money, infrastructure, rising user numbers, potential ETF to draw in investment capital. It's really a matter of when we go up. There is too much money to be made in this space for us not to mount another bubble or three. I still think this is all a distribution phase prior to the next run up. Unless we smash below the previous ATH on heavy volume, bitcoin days destroyed goes berzerk, or the black swan - the US comes out and bans bitcoin.  |
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Permabulls keep hoping, but what do they know?  The real danger is not finding a new bottom from which a slow bull market can develop, that's normal, the danger is that too many whales could panic sell below 300$ so the new bull market won't be able to develop and we could see an extension of wave C and eventually possibly double digits.  Anything is possible in a thinly traded market. But bitcoin days destroyed is not showing anything like what you suggest. In fact the chart of the largest holdings shows they are accumulating not divesting. I wonder why |
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You must be new here, I saw allot of people leaving the board after being skeptic about Bitcoin or because of getting burnt or frustrated or simply losing interest... I saw few turning millionaires and many others losing all their investments due to volatility, heist, scams, theft, or closing services... and let me tell you something, Bitcoin ecosystem is full of this shit.
You mentioned only a few posts back you were leaving, yet here you remain..what happened? |
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Time to turn the book-talking up to maximum short selling fleas!
Enjoy using my coins by the way, just remember to give back the interest..
Ya that's the spirit. Short it until double-digits. Masterpiece that You are aware that you must buy back every coins with an additional interest you sell short, right? The real problem isn't margin trading but those who sell for good. Margin trading only helps to speed things up. I haven't shorted, I have lent my btc in swaps on finex to hedge the decline. edit: no magical ponies in sight, actually it is you lot paying the daily interest..thanks |
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Time to turn the book-talking up to maximum short selling fleas!
Enjoy using my coins by the way, just remember to give back the interest..
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No i think the situation can be summed up by simply looking at the 5 or 15 minute chart and lowering your eyes to the volume ticker. Price entirely moved by interval dumping. But yes it falls further edit: weeeeeee! |
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What do you say? Thank you for the profits?
You're welcome.
Remember: it's only a profit if you lock it in by selling. If you are talking about shorting, then you mean buying. |
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Am I a bad person if i have lent some of my coins out on finex in btc swaps?
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Parroting the same crap every day based on nothing but blind faith is all you do. More than pretty much anyone else here.
See VC investment, merchant integration, wallet numbers, transaction graphs etc.. |
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I've lost zero bitcoins. Every bitcoin is right where it should be.
Well, since your everyday necessities and everything around you is priced in fiat and not in bitcoin, you've lost 55% of your purchasing power. How does it make you feel to say something so pointless and idiotic? It's certainly not pointless since opening post asks how much have you lost in terms of dollars, and I don't see how is it idiotic either? Of course you don't. You want the price lower. The more bearish pointless threads the better! |
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How do you know we will go up? Because we did so in the past and Bitcoin will forever just magically go up?
Why would it magically just go down forever? It has never done that before. This is probably the dumbest thing i'm gonna read all day. For someone who spams this thread daily with bile and negative commentary, you actually know surprisingly little about market dynamics. That probably explains your bad attitude. Coming from someone who's only market analysis is "we are about to go up". Hilarious. Being a long term bull is different from parroting the same crap every day. |
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How do you know we will go up? Because we did so in the past and Bitcoin will forever just magically go up?
Why would it magically just go down forever? It has never done that before. This is probably the dumbest thing i'm gonna read all day. For someone who spams this thread daily with bile and negative commentary, you actually know surprisingly little about market dynamics. That probably explains your bad attitude. |
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Expect some announcements..
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How do you know we will go up? Because we did so in the past and Bitcoin will forever just magically go up?
Why would it magically just go down forever? It has never done that before. When the short sellers cannot dump the price lower because demand keeps the price from falling lower then they will stop. It stopped at 275 and rebounded higher on heavy volume. If it bounces on decent volume above that then the floor is confirmed technically and we can rally higher. I am disappointed the price has drifted back down but that is life. |
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Zero volume then the large dumps simply means the price is being guided lower to paint the chart, nothing organic about it. I suppose a retest of the low could be on the cards.
Market has to confirm an absolute bottom first. I doubt we go lower than 300 (simply because that is where my buy order is).
I don't know why you get so excited about traders shroomskit. They are a zero sum game, flies chasing the whales, adding depth to the orderbook for real buyers and sellers to use.
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Does anyone think the price of bitcoin will ever go back up to a respectable price?
Currently, Bitcoin is ridiculously overvalued. A respectable price would be somewhere in the single digit range, and that's the price Bitcoin is going back to. It'll be a slow and painful decline with a lot of bulltraps along the way. It might take months or years to get there, but we'll get there eventually. Together. You sound so sure. I have reviewed your posts since you joined during the last bubble. It seems you didn't always think so and earlier in the year you were predicting 10k and even 100k (you sure like extremes). Then you got very excited about gox and either lost your money or sold at huge loss. Since you have stated previously a) you don't trade or short and b) you don't own coins your presence on the forum in any capacity than a doomer troll is difficult to justify, especially when it is obvious you simply want to buy in lower and deep down love bitcoin! |
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