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2661  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: What would it take to make a 51% attack on the whole bitcoin network? on: September 14, 2011, 09:18:16 PM
Bcrypt isn't magic.  It just does the difficulty adjustment internally.
2662  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much money will mtgox need for the trial? on: September 14, 2011, 08:29:40 PM

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

They still should state how many BTC they have. Otherwise, Im thinking bitcoin is virtually worthless vs the USD.
Saying the fix is in because these will always be in reserve(like China holding US dollars) is not reassuring.

Can you clarify this?  I don't follow your reasoning at all.
2663  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much money will mtgox need for the trial? on: September 14, 2011, 08:12:31 PM
It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.

So how do they produce cash flow for their operation if they don't exchange btc for dollars?

Maybe they cash out using another exchange?

This is how.
2664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin mentioned at congressional hearing. on: September 14, 2011, 08:05:52 PM
The Federal Reserve gives their benefits to the government. There is a big difference.


The Federal Reserve just gives their money to the government at cost!?!? How nice of them.

If I was them I would charge interest....

oh that's right...they do

Do you realize that the interest that the Fed charges to the government is not real? The Fed charges the government interest on the gov debt that it holds. That money is benefits for the Fed. The benefit of the Fed goes back to the government. So what the government pays, the government gets back. Its not real.

Look, you should look to the original sources and make up your mind. I will have to leave it here.

Be sure to read Working Paper 2007-052B from the St. Louis Fed's research division.

The fed mostly deals in short duration debt, which does not pay interest in the usual sense.  T-bills are sold at a discount to the primary dealers (who are not the fed), and then they are resold on the secondary market.  The FOMC operates to adjust liquidity and interest rates, but they don't really care about the interest they earn by doing so, only what their actions have on interest rates overall.
2665  Economy / Economics / Re: whats your experience w/ no legal tender money on: September 14, 2011, 03:32:51 PM
Read The Hyperinflation Survival guide (warning, PDF).

It is about conducting business in a hyperinflationary country, mostly using lessons learned from Argentina that were very fresh at the time it was written.
2666  Economy / Economics / Re: Gold: I smell a trap on: September 14, 2011, 03:16:06 PM
And if the derivatives bubble is going to pop, you'll be too busy surviving to worry about your money.

i'm really glad you brought this up.  i've been meaning to talk about this.

miscreanity calls gold an asset as do i.  i believe that gold as an asset can inflate just like any other asset via USD inflation.  the derivatives mkt is no different.  as is the gold derivatives mkt.  gold pundits argue that if we get a gold derivatives implosion there will be a scramble for physical gold which will drive it to the moon.  but you have to ask yourselves:  what were those derivative positions funded with?  Answer:  USD's.  so if anything, a gold derivatives implosion should cause a scramble for USD's (or a shrinking of the total virtual USD's depending on how you like to think about this) causing a further skyrocketing of the USD.  if THAT happens, what becomes of the physical gold price?

Decoupling.

Back in 2008, hedge funds and investment banks were selling whatever they could get their hands on so that they could meet redemption requests.  Of course, these redemption requests were for dollars, so the cost of the dollar went up and the price of everything else went down, which was strange to people that thought this was the collapse of the dollar system that they had been waiting for.

But, there were some oddities.  Funds sold a lot of their holdings of paper metals, like GLD.  Now GLD and gold are linked through a complicated relationship (which is the entire point of GLD), so as GLD was dumped, the price of gold went down with it.  Except that if you wanted to get your hands on actual physical shiny yellow metal, you had to pay a ridiculous premium for it.  At several times, the premium was so high that it actually cost more to buy physical gold than it had cost before the spot price tanked.

At the time, I was watching silver much more closely than I was watching gold.  One day when spot silver was under $10/oz, I remember the local coin store wouldn't part with a round for less than $20, and if you wanted Eagles, they were at least $22 each.  I called around, and other dealers were demanding pretty similar prices.  I don't think the gold premium was anywhere near 100%, but it was still pretty steep, maybe 30%-50%.

The price of actual physical metals had very much decoupled from their paper prices.  Over time, they converged again, mostly by waiting for the paper prices to rise up to meet the physical prices.  The funny part is that I've never ever seen historic data on premiums, so it is easy to forget that it happens, or even to never know about it in the first place.

So, the next time there is a panic (now?) and funds need to dump stuff to buy dollars, the paper price of physical metals will certainly drop, like you say.  But that doesn't mean that those prices will have any bearing on the actual transaction prices in the real world.

I'm of the opinion that the situation back in 2008-2009 was very unusual.  I wouldn't be willing to bet that the next event of this sort will actually cause the markets to decouple to the same extent, but there are quite a few gold and silver pundits that would be.
2667  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much money will mtgox need for the trial? on: September 14, 2011, 01:41:28 PM
It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market.  The trial then can have a strong impact on the market.  In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that?  I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).

mtgox fees are in whatever currency you are getting.  Buying BTC?  Fee is BTC.  Buying dollars (aka, selling BTC)?  Fee is dollars.

Also, MagicalTux has stated at least a few times that they don't ever buy or sell BTC because people would assume they are abusing their position.  Instead, they save their BTC to use on things like bailing out bitomat.
2668  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Input Requested for Possible Bitcoin Convention on: September 14, 2011, 12:55:58 PM
Okay, here's what I'm planning:

Where: San Antonio, Texas, USA

When: 2012 - March 16th, 17th, and 18th

This sounds like a great plan.
2669  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Looking for a 8 pci expansion slot case on: September 13, 2011, 06:45:26 PM
here is a nice case  Grin  purchased @ lowes 25 bucks

I can top that.  ~$6 for three square dowels (5/8" by 36") and some wood screws I had floating around.  Only running 3 cards right now, but it is drilled for 4 double width cards.

2670  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Cover name for shipping silver? Suggestions please. on: September 13, 2011, 06:10:15 PM
Don't screw around.  Use insurance.

And anyone that bothers to read your address on the packages is going to assume that you are shipping chocolate anyway.
2671  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Well, it sure feels like 6 months ago. on: September 13, 2011, 02:06:58 PM
And that tells you what, exactly?  Think carefully.  Does it tell you something about gold?  Or does it tell you something about fiat currencies as a group?  Both?  Neither?
I did of course know you would say that, which is why I used silver. Your only recourse to fix the cognitive dissonance was to pretend it was off topic.

The currencies are much more stable compared to pretty much everything you can buy than gold. You can of course pretend it's the gold that's stable and everything else that's varying in value, but then stability becomes meaningless.

When you reach this line your brain has probably already gone through the "NOOO!" fase and fixed the cognitive dissonance for you again. It's quite fascinating.

Awesome.  I'm not just wrong, I have cognitive dissonance!  Holy shit, I should try that technique!  It seems much easier than actually supporting a position with like data and logic and stuff.

Here is a post showing a couple of examples from some diverse categories of goods, compared from 1984 to 2004.  Combine that with some historic gold data.  Virtually everything doubled in cost when measured in dollars, but only increased by 50% when priced in gold.

I know that one comparison from 1984 to 2004 isn't the whole picture.  Then again, you haven't presented any data at all.  So far all you've done is toss around some pointless insults and assert your position a couple of times.

I will concede one thing though.  I didn't notice any other prices change yesterday when gold dropped by $60/oz.  So, if you are willing to consider a short enough time frame, and ignore the money illusion, then the dollar can certainly appear to be quite stable.

I suppose I could also point out that when gold coins are used as currency, prices of everything in terms of those coins are extraordinarily stable.  Right up until someone decides to debase the coins.  See, for example, the fall of the Roman Empire.
2672  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mt Gox Break In Part 2 on: September 13, 2011, 07:37:04 AM
I also do not think it is likely the recent DigiNotar or Globalsign break ins have produced SSL certs to attack mtgox with (which WOULD explain this) because mtgox uses EV certs and as far as I know none of the fake certs were for EV, but DigiNotar and Globalsign both DO issue EV certs. Although I am not ruling this out.


Forging a SSL cert only enables the possibility of a man-in-the-middle attack from being transparently obvious when it's no longer signed properly.  However, you still have to accept the change in certificate for the forged-SSL MIM attack to work.  Did you log in to MtGox from strange internet connections in shady places?  Or did MtGox get their DNS forged as well?

Is there actually a browser that will remember a certificate and complain if that cert is replaced with a different valid CA-signed cert?
2673  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 13, 2011, 07:10:32 AM
Outside of the billions incident a while back, I don't think there has ever been a reorg involving more than a few blocks.  And we sorta think that no one has the ability to actually redirect a transaction right now, or even will have the ability in the near future.
This is true only on the "public" block chain. I'm inclined to believe Tom Williams' story (of Mybitcoin's fame) that his machine had seen some sort of prepared, non-public block chain due to an attack.

Having seen the inside of the software and having heard of the testing methodologies that it undergoes I' thinking that the further failures related to mishandled chain reorganizations are inevitable.

I don't buy his story at all, at least not the version I heard.  Here's why.  Nodes forward valid blocks.  This is obviously true in the window between accepting the block and having it overturned, but it is also true after a new longest chain has been accepted.  Hell, it is even true if the blocks are stale at the time they are received, if I recall correctly from reading the code a while back.

If his node had been fed blocks that were later overturned, his node would have shared those, and they would have spread across the entire network, meaning that we'd all have copies of them.  Certain people that have a keen interest in the block chain, like Theymos, would have noticed proof of a spend redirection attack in the wild and would have announced it widely.  I gave up on reading the crap sloshing around in the mybitcoin threads, so I might have missed it, but I'm pretty sure that I would have come across it eventually if it had been announced.

I don't necessarily think that he stole the coins, but I'm pretty sure the attack did not come through the bitcoin side of things, even if he really did count deposits after a single confirmation.

Or, if you want to make a new thread on the subject, I can try to fill in the details for you.
Personally: I'm disinterested. But for the wider community some sort of anti-propaganda would be an asset. Something along the lines "Conscientous accounting auditor's guide to the bitcoin internals."

I think the saddest part is that you (presonally) are one of the very few bitcoin-positive people who is actually willing to admit problems and discuss the deeper philosophical issues related to its implemenatation. I have this unfortunate experience that the full 100% of the bitcoin-positive people I've got personally acuqainted with were either fraudsers, gross-incompetents, fly-by-night operators or some combination of that.

Thanks, I appreciate that.  But I don't think the community is quite that bad.  It is certainly true that a lot of knowledgeable people have given up on the forums and moved on, but there are still a bunch around.

On this particular issue, the philosophical issue is this:  Should the bitcoin client be an accounting platform?  My gut says no.  Accounting is not a monolithic thing, it is a collection of different practices and procedures, with many, many differences from place to place.  Even if proper accounting was a function that was appropriate for the client, there is no possible way for it to do everything that everyone would need it to do.  So, accounting should be in a different layer, in different software that talks to the client.

I would even take the next step and say that the client does too much stuff, already.
2674  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Does the constant generation of bitcoin addresses clutter the blockchain? on: September 13, 2011, 05:05:11 AM
This is not a well-researched statement.  There is no reduction in security of ECDSA by using the same key on multiple signatures.   If there was, then no one would use ECDSA, as most other applications for it cannot accommodate new keys for every exchange.
[...]
It is an insult to cryptographers/mathematicians to, in any way, compare WEP to elliptic curve cryptography.  
I fully agree with you that ECDSA is mathematically sound. And comparing it to WEP was an insult.

But I will disagree with you from the standpoint of implementation engineering. In my career I was involved in several fracas where a mathematically sound idea got corrupted by the cargo-cult style of its implementation in software or hardware. Side-channels are hard to detect, and the way the current Satoshi bitcoin client development is progressing, I will probably be willing to bet a small sum on an interesting crypto-snafu that's going to happen in some of its branches.

The above isn't a mathematical theorem, it is my hunch based on past experience with implementations of patented cryptographic methods. I have signed at least two NDAs related to the above, as of now I don't remember if they had already expired.

I've had this exact same debate on these forums already.  2112 is right about the keys.

We are, ahem, sure that ECDSA has no weaknesses against private key reuse.  But it is also a bad idea to reuse private keys, just because.  It is just a tiny little bit bad of an idea.  It is incredibly unlikely to ever be a problem.  But throughout history, cryptographic system breaches in the real world have always been facilitated by key reuse.

People should be free to do whatever they want, but they should understand that reusing keys results in a slight decrease in overall security.  The decrease might be infinitesimal, and it probably is, but it is still a decrease.
2675  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mt Gox Break In Part 2 on: September 13, 2011, 04:48:31 AM
I believe that fraudulent EV certificates were issued.

For reasons unrelated to this, I would like to have this citation notated.

I only found one useful article that mentions that EVSSL may have been included in the breach.

http://isc.sans.edu/diary.html?storyid=11500

I'm assuming that you and MagicalTux checked the IPs used on your account.  Anything strange there?
2676  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Well, it sure feels like 6 months ago. on: September 13, 2011, 04:27:33 AM
Only if you are limited to looking at one pair.

The reality is we can look at many pairings.

i.e. we can compare the volatility of gold to USD, gold to EUR, gold to xyz.
We can also compare volatility of USD:EUR. 

That those comparisons we can conclude that gold is much more volatile relative to other major currencies than the major currencies are to each other.

And that tells you what, exactly?  Think carefully.  Does it tell you something about gold?  Or does it tell you something about fiat currencies as a group?  Both?  Neither?
2677  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 13, 2011, 01:58:38 AM
What exactly is it that you imagine Gavin to be dancing around?  Even better, how did you make it two months on this forum without learning about this?
I imagine Gavin dancing around GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles).

Actually, I'll ask you the opposite. Do you see any easy-to-use software advertised here on this forum that is upfront about:

1) bitcoins could disappear from your wallet
2) transactions will get their timestamps changed in some obscure ways

I'm not talking "upfront" as "discoverable here on the forum after two months of reading". I'm talking "upfront" as popping up a message when that happens or having any other mechanism to alert the user about those occurences.

It doesn't take two months to learn that.  I don't think it even took me 2 hours from the first time I heard about bitcoin to understand how and why chain reorgs happen.

At any rate, you are right that chain reorgs need better handling in the stock client.  It has been a frequent topic here on the forums, and on the dev list.  What isn't at all clear is what to change, or how.

Outside of the billions incident a while back, I don't think there has ever been a reorg involving more than a few blocks.  And we sorta think that no one has the ability to actually redirect a transaction right now, or even will have the ability in the near future.  Also, while we are pretty sure that we, as humans, can tell a benign reorg (every few days) from a hostile one (never, so far), writing an algorithm to do it for us isn't so easy.

This is a pretty big subject, with lots of technical and philosophical issues, and this isn't the right thread to discuss it in.  You can find a lot of it in the development and technical discussion area.  Or, if you want to make a new thread on the subject, I can try to fill in the details for you.
2678  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 12, 2011, 10:56:39 PM
You should really stop saying "chargeback".  It isn't even slightly similar to what actually exists in the bitcoin system.
Tell this to your accountant. How about "wholesale transaction reversal and freshly mined coin destruction"? Does this sound better to your ear? It certainly is more true.

Chargeback is the proper term of art when writing about accounting in English.

Here's the Gavin Anderson dancing around the issue in the section of this forum related to the alternative currencies.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=43465.msg520923#msg520923

Since that section is the "wildest of the Wild West" it may have been missed by many of the readers of this forum.

Ahh, you are using chargeback as accounting jargon, and not in the sense that the other 99.99% of English speakers use in normal conversation.  I'm no accountant, so I'll take your word for it.  I'll even apologize:  my bad.

Now that we have the basic definitions straight, we can continue.

What exactly is it that you imagine Gavin to be dancing around?  Even better, how did you make it two months on this forum without learning about this?

The block chain, as a whole, represents a consensus agreement about the global state of transactions.  It can exist in different versions in different places and times.  The "correct" version is, by protocol, the version that would require the most work (statistically) to replace.  The protocol was designed to minimize the amount of trust that any one party needs to have for any other party, so the "correct" version of the block chain is still correct, even if it isn't the version that you saw first.

This is explained in the FAQ, and the Weaknesses page of the wiki, and in many, many threads here on the forums.

If an accountant (or author of accounting software) doesn't understand this, the fault lies with the accountant for improper recording, not with the software for doing exactly what it says it is going to do.
2679  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Well, it sure feels like 6 months ago. on: September 12, 2011, 10:33:59 PM
Where the hell did silver come from?  I thought we were talking about gold.
If you can't hold more than one thought at a time I understand why you think this is difficult.

Well, I guess it was my fault for expecting a somewhat serious level of discussion.  If you want to be childish, I guess I'll just call you a poopy head and leave it at that.

For everyone else reading this thread, or if you someone that can explain things to you, maybe a younger brother, or a pet rock or something, I'll just mention one more thing.  In a fully floating system like we have now, it is impossible to measure the volatility of any one thing without measuring the volatility of every other thing at the same time.  If you look at just one pairing, say gold vs. dollars, or gold vs. silver, the best you can do is make a remark about the relative volatility of the pair.

That is, if you say that gold is volatile because the dollar value of an ounce varies a lot, the reverse claim is equally true.  Thus, the dollar is volatile, because the gold value of one dollar varies a lot.  It also means that statements at a remove are doubly worthless, so talking about silver vs. gold doesn't tell you anything at all about gold, or about silver, and it tells you even less than nothing about gold vs. dollars.
2680  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Well, it sure feels like 6 months ago. on: September 12, 2011, 07:43:48 PM
Are you saying that they actually can print more gold?
Are you saying that they actually can print more silver?

The value of something is not locked just because it's hard to make more of it. If it was the proportional value of gold vs silver would always be the same.

Where the hell did silver come from?  I thought we were talking about gold.

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