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2681  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 02, 2021, 07:58:57 AM
Longer fight at $30k.... this mark seems to be mucho mucho importante for bears...  Grin

Observing beartard walls building up at $30k since yesterday.
 Huh
What in the world would make somebody willingly LOSE money by selling bitcoin at the start of a bull market?

Isn't the chinese new year starting out a little later than in the rest of the world?
Maybe it's selling because of upcoming taxation?
I admit, i have no knowledge of china's tax sytem, might as well be a bullshit idea from my selfie  Grin
2682  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 10:10:34 PM
wow, elwar made it to one of the most reputable german newspapers! (only in german)

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/leben/bitcoin-peter-thiel-libertaer-1.5161423


here is a quote:

Quote
... Nadia, die eigentlich Supranee Thepdet heißt, hat wieder etwas Gutes, Scharfes gekocht. Chad Elwartowski, ihr Mann, ein US-Amerikaner aus Michigan, Mitte 40, mit Strohhut und Shorts, blickt sie nach dem letzten Bissen dankbar an.

Dann erzählt er, wie sie 2018 nach Thailand kamen und in einer Bar in Bangkok Rudy trafen. "Wir sind nur die Sideshow", sagt Chad, "er ist die Type." "Wenn man mit ihm aus dem Haus geht", meint Supranee, "gibt es immer ein Abenteuer." Der Kontakt war im Internet entstanden, auf einem Forum der "Seasteader", der Seesiedler-Bewegung. Der Deutsche lud das Paar ein, in Phuket Quartier zu machen. Und erkor die beiden bald zu den ersten Bewohnern seines achteckigen Häuschens, das draußen auf dem Meer schweben sollte.

Rudy, vor mehr als 50 Jahren in Karlsruhe geboren, hört von Amts wegen auf den Namen Rüdiger Koch. ...

you are the man, elwar! the entire article is way more friendly/neutral than some of the reactions in bitcointalk. i am impressed. ms satoshi story is also covered.


Elwar surely has some HUGE balls! He's sort of a public figure and everybody knows where he lives etc... frankly, don't want to sound cynical but I'm surprised he's still alive and well and nobody has tried to extort his coins yet  Lips sealed  So seems like many WO-ers overestimate the importance of opsec.  Grin Or maybe not... 

OpSec is more a risk management of possible future events. (not only unlawful ones)
It's much harder when you're having a business, especially one associated with bitcoin...

2683  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 08:52:41 PM
^ looks like an IBM XT (with 8086 or 8088) with removed or photoshopped logo. Good old times and burnt in monitors...

EDIT: 5.25" 360KB (iirc) Floppy disks were standard. You could cut/punch out the write-enable tab at the other side and turn em around (vertical flip) and use em double-sided. Just like the old 8" dinosaurs, but a little more handy and soo above punch cards and tape reels back then.
2684  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 01, 2021, 07:06:00 PM
On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

Looks like the trump administration is quickly shooting out some inconvenient rules to protect their (clients) interests?
It would be good to ban lawmaking after an offcial winner has been announced in presidential votes, until the new president is put in place.
Mnuchin also seems to be some character of the lowest variety, imho.

EDIT: 1000 posts! Hooray  Cool

2685  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 09:32:52 PM
fuck this Covid news, i hope 2021 will be Covid (news) free


Sorry, but it's here to stay. I ain't happy about it either.
One day it will degrade to a common cold through mutation. Years from now. So it will be all good at some point in the midterm future.


I didn't mention EMP, because i didn't know if it's even possible without nucular materials.
Once i read about DIY building an EMP from a microwave, but i thought that was a hoax. Also, afaik EMP spread spherical, so you would take out your own electric circuits as well. Certainly have to dig into that topic a little deeper.


https://hackaday.com/2011/03/21/herf-gun-zaps-more-than-your-dinner/

Yeah, this one. Didn't try it out (yet), but i think it's the baby version of a nucular EMP.


I guess the virus will be defeated by a vaccine first because herd immunity will be reached... it will then disappear as SARS or MERS...

So far, the vaccines don't work like that. They don't prevent infection and spreading, they prevent covid outbreak or, at least, lessen covid symptom severity.
Classic, antibody-based vaccines would not be as effective, because the virus would mutate and the specific antibodies won't recognize the "new" virus.
It's the same with the flu. We would have established herd immunity against the flu a long time ago, otherwise.
Covid is the new flu, just up to three times as deadly plus complicated aftermath, in part of the cases. It's not known yet, who or why will suffer from severe symptoms and who and why will go through cov2 infection without symptoms, and if it will be different the next time the same individual will get infected by a mutated variant.
Too many puzzles to solve.
Science & research saying: Please stand by...


What on earth is that thing?

I have a feeling that i don't want to know, after we found it out...
2686  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 07:19:47 PM
fuck this Covid news, i hope 2021 will be Covid (news) free


Sorry, but it's here to stay. I ain't happy about it either.
One day it will degrade to a common cold through mutation. Years from now. So it will be all good at some point in the midterm future.


I didn't mention EMP, because i didn't know if it's even possible without nucular materials.
Once i read about DIY building an EMP from a microwave, but i thought that was a hoax. Also, afaik EMP spread spherical, so you would take out your own electric circuits as well. Certainly have to dig into that topic a little deeper.


https://hackaday.com/2011/03/21/herf-gun-zaps-more-than-your-dinner/

Yeah, this one. Didn't try it out (yet), but i think it's the baby version of a nucular EMP.
2687  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 06:43:30 PM

- We still don't know if Super Covid effect vaccine effectioness.


Modern vaccines target the spike protein of the virus, which docks onto the target receptor (ACE-2 in the case of SARS-CoV-2).
So it's unlikely that vaccines cease to work on mutations.
However, antibody therapy would only work to some extent, because antibodies are way more specific to virus dns, while the spike protein is highly unlikely to change.
2688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 05:49:53 PM
plenty of options.

An EMP would be the choice, but I like it messy. Cool

I always recall the slingshot I had as a kid, whenever I see a drone flying low on a beach.
Perhaps the coming summer I'll even buy one and carry it with me. Throwing stones manually at them does not work very well.

I didn't mention EMP, because i didn't know if it's even possible without nucular materials.
Once i read about DIY building an EMP from a microwave, but i thought that was a hoax. Also, afaik EMP spread spherical, so you would take out your own electric circuits as well. Certainly have to dig into that topic a little deeper.

I'm fed up shoveling show, it's the fourth day in a row now  Roll Eyes
2689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 08:35:22 AM
Looking at the Boston Dynamics recent video, I can't help thinking how shotgun resistant these things are or will be.
I'd love to find out, and probably will, but for now drones will have to do. Roll Eyes

green lasers
electromagnetic fields
the good old pitfall

...

plenty of options.
2690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 08:20:34 AM
.... they are not BTC worthy....

I think we all started kinda like that bro - but we evolved.
It takes more to be BTC worthy, than just buying it - you gotta hodl it ffs.
In other words, you gotta to respect it - cos if you don't - well, you just got mindrusted.

I managed to get a good friend into BTC earlier this year.
He is only now starting to respect it, and only because of me.

Personally, I treated BTC back in 2013 with total disrespect.
You can guess how that worked out.



Observing corn today, is such a beauty. Grin

second that.



2020:

mindrust got mindroasted
angry kitten went full satoshi
stimulus stimulating bitcoin and stonks
and institutional investors
vegeta & gentlemen
S2F not yet invalidated
24777 game got us a winner


2021:

hookers & blow
shitcoin anti-season (2018 reversed)
...
2691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:10:05 PM
the schrödinger cat of money.

this is beautiful!
the umlaut is also candy  Grin

have a good night!
#seeyouat30k+
2692  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 10:06:35 PM
road to 100k

This... thing... is gayer than Rick and I put together.

thanks, it took me a serious amount of work to look that gay.

Something is missing, though...

2693  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 09:57:39 PM
road to 100k

This... thing... is gayer than Rick and I put together.

...and unicorns!
2694  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 09:56:29 PM

Holy shit! Just checked the user review section and found this:



And I suddenly don't want to wear this hat anymore... How can a person make this hat look ridiculous?  Grin This dude looks like a clown.



Go over the trousers in photoshop? Would certainly not hurt  Cheesy
You don't know the human behind this pic (which is probably made up, anyway)  Wink
2695  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 09:36:16 PM
Go go go go BTC go go!  Cool  $30k within reach... make this year greatest in your history BTCCool

Greatest year yet in Bitcoin history...  Cool
2696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 09:30:25 PM
EDIT: Forgot to mention that i feel definitely more relaxed since corn is correcting  Grin

But it is not correcting.

That thingie-ma-jiggie that we witnessed (in the past 2-3 days) was a correction for ants, if you had not noticed.

Well, consider having a tiny, tiny stash, a correction for ants is likely to be perceived "bigger", or is it just me?  Wink

It could be just you.  I am not sure?  I will go along with your presentation that you feel that your BTC stash is relatively tiny, and perhaps that could be some kind of explanation for why you get nervous about BTC price changes, because you have a kind of goal to increase your stash and/or to take advantage of BTC price moves...

At the same time, I do not really consider this to be a great justification for trying to NOT let BTC's price movements interfere with whatever plans that you have made for dealing with such BTC price changes.  It's almost as if you have not prepared, even though we have been talking about these kinds of potential BTC price movements for a few years (sure I have been talking about them for nearly 7 years, and you have been for a few years based on this account and your previous one)....

So, I get the sense that you have not pee pared ur lil selfie for these kinds of price moves, even though they are largely within reasonable parameters of the kinds of moves that we have been anticipating.

About that weekly parabola: This is the thing that gave me the scare (for ants, though).

Sure, the weekly parabola does look a bit crazy when looking at it, which surely causes some anticipations that corrections could come at anytime and play out extremely - but at the same time, fuck the charts, you should not be letting these stupid ass charts interfere with your plans and causing you to NOT stick with your previous plan, to the extent that you had some kind of a decent plan... and your plan should not be lacking in so much concreteness that it causes you to try to time price moves and/or overly play your hand because you perceive your stash to be small and you want to increase it.. blah blah blah..

At (mid term) fuck-you price levels of corn, i can more or less only sell a fraction (up to a third, the rest is locked in hodl mode) near the next "top" to buy back at the next "captitulation", if these events ever happen again anytime soon... i mean within years, to grow it. The timing of this is at the core of my "nervousness" (for ants, but still).

Maybe you should be a bit more specific about what you are saying here, or maybe it is that your plan is lacking in specifics and you are too much caught up in attempts to time these price moves.. and even trying to get towards the top with any of your shaving off some BTC profits so that you might be able to buy lower.

I still believe those to be a bit ridiculous of mindsets in terms of attempting to time the market and the BTC price, but hey peeps are going to do what they are going to do.  I personally believe it is way less emotionally involving to have some kind of plan in which you sell set amounts at set price points and do not worry about whether you are able to buy back lower or not.. and sure if you are able to buy back lower, then great, but do not be counting on it or fucking around with the timing aspect.. just set your plan and attempt to follow it within a certain degree of flexibility, if you so choose.

So for example, with your trading stash that you proclaim to be 1/3 of your total stash, I would suggest NOT to be trying to play the whole 1/3 in one go, but instead, pick some various BTC price points that you shave off some proportion of that stash, such as 1/10th of it each time that the BTC price reaches various price points set by you.. and of course, you can tweak those price points if your senses change (but it might not be a good idea to tweak if you have already thought through ahead of time regarding what those price points should be)  or some other variation of preset price points that is not going to cause you to have such high levels of emotionalism in regards to your trying to play and time too much of it in one go.

Sure, I understand that part of your excitement remains something like the BTC price playing out way more bullish that the most bullish of your expectations - but that is the way the king daddy is.. so you should have already been attempting got plan and prepare both financially and emotionally for these kinds of greater than expectations kinds of happenings within the bitcoin scene.

Hopefully this is helpful in some kind of way, and of course, in the end, you gotta find your own specific price points and practices that feel comfortable for you, and surely mine are likely a wee bit different from yours... including the fact that previous plays can frequently affect present or future plays... and of course, each of us come out differently when it really comes to diving into each of the personal factors that should be included in these kinds of considerations and planning which are cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared to other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to learn or to tweak plans from time to time including the extent to reallocate or trade, if at all.


TLDRe Too long, didn't remember everything

For me it's looking at 2017 like you would likely be looking at 2013/2014, sort of. When i entered just before 2017 FOMO kicked in.
Since i became aware of BTC in 2011, but fucked up to aquire some because of health and mental issues, as well as in 2014, i got myself together in 2017 to buy my first quarter, just to sell it after a few days, and buying back again shortly later. I did not repeat this mistake. Then i was trading the late bull market, easy corn, which ended up about half as much because i tried to trade the bear market in 2018 with alts. Not much, but i looked at it as a loss, while it was little of a gain. Didn't repeat that mistake, too.
There was no plan until that time, and while watching corn go south over the months, i joined the WO and developed a plan, and IIRC your postings did help me a lot.
So looking at my holdings, i decided to hardcore-hodl a quarter for each family member, including myself. This part would never get sold but eventually spent by my kids and wife. I was looking for dips, occasionally bought them, so i developed a habit for trying to time the market, opposed to completely relaxed DCA. This behavior was a leftover of the trading days, which i got aware of not so long ago. This built the rest of my stash, which i planned to grow until that quarter per family member would be half a coin to enter the hardcore hodl mode. As things developed, i can eventually make it, and even also buy me some useful things.
Selling for that purpose would of course happen in "steps" on the way up, as you suggested many times to others, and also me, and invested on the way down to reach my target. Everything else that goes over it will be considered "play money" for spending on useful things, even loosely hodling in form of mBTC.
Trading in itself is making me nervous, so as long as i have to trade to fulfill my plan, i will likely fall back into these "weak" states of mind a few times more, but i learned not to take it too serious and just hodl in trust of the king.
Reading your reply did explicitly help, so thanks (probably again) for bringing my selfie down to the ground (probably again)  Grin

Now on to different things: 2021  Cool
I prepared myself with a few bottles of classic schweppes tonic water and today i got lucky to shoot one of these, while out shopping food in a (soft) lockdown:





If i don't make it for a Happy New Year post here on WO, i prematurely cheer to all of you!  Grin
#hodl








2697  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 11:40:39 AM
Got a new Synology DS420+ and plugged in the old drives. Booted it up and puckered my asshole and was greeted with a "Do you wish to migrate your data" dialogue. You bet my fucking ass I do! Clicked yes and 10 minutes later all back up and running with the same settings and all!

I absolutely love Synology products, and their Hybrid RAID setup. Use two of their boxes (DS415+ & DS1511+) on my network and can't recommend them highly enough. For Direct Attached Storage arrays on my Mac, can't to wrong with Promise Technology products IMO.

Promise. That's the manufacturer name i was searching my memories for, almost drove me mad.
THX!



xhomerx10 !!!
i officially and kindly apply for an "alternative original" of this hookers&blow-hat for $50k+ levels  Grin Grin Grin
If you're ok with (t)hat  Cool

Dammit, I'm ready to wear it NOW...  Cool

No problem, i want literally "HOOKERS & BLOW" on it. So it would be an evolution of this hat Smiley
2698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 07:37:45 AM
EDIT: Forgot to mention that i feel definitely more relaxed since corn is correcting  Grin

But it is not correcting.

That thingie-ma-jiggie that we witnessed (in the past 2-3 days) was a correction for ants, if you had not noticed.


Well, consider having a tiny, tiny stash, a correction for ants is likely to be perceived "bigger", or is it just me?  Wink
About that weekly parabola: This is the thing that gave me the scare (for ants, though).

At (mid term) fuck-you price levels of corn, i can more or less only sell a fraction (up to a third, the rest is locked in hodl mode) near the next "top" to buy back at the next "captitulation", if these events ever happen again anytime soon... i mean within years, to grow it. The timing of this is at the core of my "nervousness" (for ants, but still).

breakfast time! Have a nice pumpy day WOs!
2699  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 07:23:21 AM
This is a gentlemen wake up .....

When two of the youngest ones in the house start jumping the bed at 5am, me thought "fuck, is this real?".
Next thing, as usual, was checking the price via blockfolio, me thought "FUCK, IS THIS REAL?!"

2700  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2020, 07:16:23 AM
Got a new Synology DS420+ and plugged in the old drives. Booted it up and puckered my asshole and was greeted with a "Do you wish to migrate your data" dialogue. You bet my fucking ass I do! Clicked yes and 10 minutes later all back up and running with the same settings and all!

I absolutely love Synology products, and their Hybrid RAID setup. Use two of their boxes (DS415+ & DS1511+) on my network and can't recommend them highly enough. For Direct Attached Storage arrays on my Mac, can't to wrong with Promise Technology products IMO.

Promise. That's the manufacturer name i was searching my memories for, almost drove me mad.
THX!



xhomerx10 !!!
i officially and kindly apply for an "alternative original" of this hookers&blow-hat for $50k+ levels  Grin Grin Grin
If you're ok with (t)hat  Cool
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