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assuming you invest in a currency of country which has a limited supply of money and you can be pretty sure that it will never be changed.
assume further that this country has the possibility to fill some niches in the global economy
you think it is insane to invest in the currency of this country?
If the currency is inflating @ 10% a year, and its dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than 50% in 2014? Let's just say "not very smart." the dollar exchange rate has increased by around 150 times in the last one and a half years - very smart investment  induction as an indicator over time is stupid. you can argue that my assumptions are wrong or that the niche is very small but arguing over charts is beyond stupid if these assumptions are true and the niche is big enough you can say that investing in this "currency" is sane. Bitcoin's exchange rate has gone up infinitely over the past five years. There once was a time when it was worth exactly nothing. Extrapolating from that, your future profits should also be infinite. If you wish to get back to reality, you may consider Bitcoin's performance in recent past. Since December of 2013, the price has been steadily declining. If your reasoning proves anything, it proves entirely too much. It proves that any investment which did well in some distant past is bound to be profitable in the future. Regardless of its recent performance. I hope I do not need to dwell on the folly of such assumptions. Re. "induction as an indicator over time": wat? what I said is that you cannot take the price as an indicator of the quality of an investment - you cannot build a theory from observation if the observation is constantly changing (as the price or the chart of bitcoin). So much for watching walls and all the TA silliness... Sadder still, so much for the notions of price reflecting the market sentiment. what you can do instead is build a set of assumptions and say if they are valid or not valid.
If price does not reflect worth now, assuming that it will in the future requires an irrational leap of faith. If you like that logic stuff. to be fair you need a point of reference - according to this http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sowur/how_is_a_2600000000000_market_cap_for_btc_possible/the market cap of gold is 8 trillion, the one of us bonds is 35 trillion - bitcoin at this point of time is 5 billion [I think most people do not realise how small this on a global scale]. so golds market cap is more than 1000 times higher than the one of bitcoin - I assume that bitcoin never catches up, but to assume that there is place to grow is definetely not insane. at this point we do not know how big the niche of bitcoin in the financial will be and let us not end arguing about pascals wagers, but that the niche is potentially existent is reasonable. But Pascal's wager is exactly the fallacy you're leaning on. You are ignoring all recent price data (showing that demand for Bitcoin is declining) in favor of extrapolating from the potential upside. By that logic, I should invest in any d00d who tells me he'll conquer the world. The upside is limitless, the downside finite. Here's the problem with your reasoning: The likelihood of Bitcoin becoming world's major currency is slim enough to make me (and my Lizard Overlords) laugh. If it does become a threat to the status quo, it will be banned--already talk in Russia of criminalizing it. It won't vanish, but it certainly won't thrive.  A couple of brief points. Firstly, sentiment reflects price, not the other way around. Secondly, you seem very happy to post the chart from the recent ATH to now - I wonder why. Others, myself included prefer to quote the long term multi year log chart, or perhaps a chart from 275 upwards to now. Based on those charts bitcoin is in fact trending upwards. Your argument against bitcoin rising to become a global reserve currency is a bit silly. Bitcoin doesn't need to be more than a tradeable digital asset and it can still move up two orders of magnitude easily in market cap valuation. |
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Nice buy wall there holy cow biggest I have seen in a while.
It seems to have accomplished its purpose over the 9-10 hours it's been there. The price has risen from 2300 to around 2400. I bet he's a buyer and not a let me send over $3 million to an exchange to pump the price...guy We should know by tomorrow morning China time anyways..if he begins to chase, pulls it, or leaves it as is My thoughts exactly. It seems strange that such a large order would sit there untouched that long without being moved. If indeed whoever placed it is sleeping, it probably is real. If it was set to be pulled if sold into past a point, one might think that it would also be set to be moved up if it got left too far behind. I guess we'll find out in a few hours. If it were to be pulled and used for a market buy, it would seriously bump the price up. I think it illustrates that a few million dollars can push and hold the price in any direction with ease. |
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Might give this more credence if you could spell break correctly in your predictions  |
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...
The question stands: What was the intended message of that chart, beyond "oooh, scary!"?
I didnt post it. But try comparing it a chart of bitcoin issuance from 2009 to 2140  Then why respond? Stop trolling. |
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@Richy_T:
Whoa. So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... Nice to know.
I know you're trolling but I hope others can see how disconnected from logic and mathematics that statement is. What are you suggesting by posting that chart? That there is an oversupply of dirty fiat and financial instruments are in a bubble. I was simply answering hdbuck's question of where people are getting all this money from. "So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... " If BTC $ price doubles while the the dollar's value falls by more than 50%, BTC's actual value has fallen. Now you know. Stop being naughty. Narrow money is not the value of the dollar! That brings us back to "What are you suggesting by posting that chart?" Yes but it gets all complicated when you add credit and base money together The question stands: What was the intended message of that chart, beyond "oooh, scary!"? I didnt post it. But try comparing it a chart of bitcoin issuance from 2009 to 2140 |
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@Richy_T:
Whoa. So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... Nice to know.
I know you're trolling but I hope others can see how disconnected from logic and mathematics that statement is. What are you suggesting by posting that chart? That there is an oversupply of dirty fiat and financial instruments are in a bubble. I was simply answering hdbuck's question of where people are getting all this money from. "So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... " If BTC $ price doubles while the the dollar's value falls by more than 50%, BTC's actual value has fallen. Now you know. Stop being naughty. Narrow money is not the value of the dollar! That brings us back to "What are you suggesting by posting that chart?" Yes but it gets all complicated when you add credit and base money together |
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@Richy_T:
Whoa. So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... Nice to know.
I know you're trolling but I hope others can see how disconnected from logic and mathematics that statement is. What are you suggesting by posting that chart? That there is an oversupply of dirty fiat and financial instruments are in a bubble. I was simply answering hdbuck's question of where people are getting all this money from. "So even when BTC dollar price goes up, its actual value is still tanking... " If BTC $ price doubles while the the dollar's value falls by more than 50%, BTC's actual value has fallen. Now you know. Stop being naughty. Narrow money is not the value of the dollar! |
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How is it that such stupid people have so much money to get rid of?
 It is a great graph. But more important in my view is money velocity (cratering) and total credit market debt. When monetary velocity picks up the inflation is going to be something epic.Will this actually happen?? Isn't it more of a stretched or drawn out proccess? Basically negative real interest rates is devaluing Western currency annually. The credit market needs money to become devalued so a new credit cycle can blast off again (people borrowing). All those excess dollars have been used to buy government debt and increase the money supply or have been given to private banks in exchange for worthless assets. That money isn't moving because people hoard in a depression/recession. Once it starts moving inflation is inevitable. Timing is another matter. Oh and if they turn off the QE programs privately then the markets all crash, asset prices crater and rates rise, causing an economic catastrophe. So they are trying to gradually get out of the markets by tapering. Basically the central banks in preventing a global depression have dislocated markets from true price discovery and noone knows what anything is really worth. But everyone knows it is all being held up by money printing. True markets and capitalism are currently dead. That is why I think bitcoin is so interesting. |
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How is it that such stupid people have so much money to get rid of?
It is a great graph. But more important in my view is money velocity (cratering) and total credit market debt. When monetary velocity picks up the inflation is going to be something epic. |
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I thought breaking the trendline, that goes from august the 10th to september the 14th, on october the 14th is a good sign. This trendline was broken a couple of days ago so i thought it might have found its bottom. Then it went down again. But it doesnt look like its really ready to go down. So i wonder what this is all about. You all think it will go down again soon? Even after it broke that big trendline? Im pretty sure a lot of people bought after they saw this so i think it matters for the development of price of bitcoin. Im only not sure how much it matters.
The overall trend really doesn't look up until after the 450-500 level... Weekends are always crazy swings with little volume! I plan to ditch my coins this weekend while the price is up and by back around 370 next week (probably Monday) Because we haven't stayed above 399 this is a very bearish sign... We lost the buying momentum for the month  You must be new |
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Keep making fun of me, Karma will pay back good... and I wont lie I will love to watch you when it happen.
Thanks for the warning! Why is it always bears warning of bitcoin's upcoming collapse? You guys have pronounced it dead at least four times already yet it seems fine to me!! |
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So. We busting through 400 this time or next attempt?
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370 is a reasonable target for the correction. I do not think it will go below that, but if it does that will be a major bearish signal.
It still looks very bullish to me.
Not looking bullish anymore, but not bearish either. Have to wait and see if it goes significantly below my correction target. The range is getting smaller that's the problem, 377 to 399 is not looking good something is going to give! People are producing a lot of these everyday and they have expenses!!! If we don't stay above 400 soon any talk of the bottom will get thrown out the window, like when you guys called the bottom at 800... & 600... &... Your short is looking doubtful now. Technicals suggest we retest 400. I hope you aren't over leveraged. no shorts here, I only bought back a few coins before... I doubt we crack 399, when we get close I will let these go & wait for 360 Fair enough. You are a secret bull then. Careful, if the trend change is not invalidated this is a dangerous time to try and sell and buy back lower. Though granted during the bear market it has worked well. |
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Don't worry lamb chop. You aren't a true bear. More opportunistic I think.
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There should be a site with a roll call of fallen bears who got 10x KO'd by bitcoin. Would be quite a list. If bitcoin becomes massive in the future it would be a hilarious list of modern day skeptics decrying the automobile, electricity or the internet as a passing fad. Some of their entirely logical but wrong arguments against the adoption of btc and crypto could be preserved for posterity. Reasoning why the price is headed to zero. Oops! |
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if only you had bought more when you signed up
So true. People who been around since early 2013 or earlier and still didn't invest much/paid attention to it tends to become pure poison later. TL;DR - BUY BUY BUY!  disclaimer: mmitech, you're not that bad though, compared to others Buy and hold is always the best strategy. It becomes apparent when you look at the bears who were here 2013 Q1 and prior. If you can hold long enough and add on dips then this remains the lowest effort approach, obviously predicated on bitcoin price rising in the future. Hopefully buyers from after the last ATH will be rewarded (and bears realise, again, because bitcoin) soon enough. The market can be a cruel beast though |
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Maybe no coincidence that the WinkDex app is just launched... I highly doubt. Nobody besides the SEC knows when Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust is going to be approved. And if he was referring to Barry Silbert's bitcoin ETF, than we would have heard something from Barry about it on Twitter, etc. Are you familiar with the concept of front-running? |
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370 is a reasonable target for the correction. I do not think it will go below that, but if it does that will be a major bearish signal.
It still looks very bullish to me.
Not looking bullish anymore, but not bearish either. Have to wait and see if it goes significantly below my correction target. The range is getting smaller that's the problem, 377 to 399 is not looking good something is going to give! People are producing a lot of these everyday and they have expenses!!! If we don't stay above 400 soon any talk of the bottom will get thrown out the window, like when you guys called the bottom at 800... & 600... &... Your short is looking doubtful now. Technicals suggest we retest 400. I hope you aren't over leveraged. |
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I highly doubt that the price will reach back to $1000 by January 2015... or any time soon.
There is not enough spark of Interest or Need, from those outside of the Crypto-currency community.
You correctly predicted the Need and spark of interest that drove previous bubbles, right? Wait.. |
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When I wake up tomorrow morning..er
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